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mowgli77

Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

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I'm going to concentrate on the better class races that will probably be listed level and above, taking in the top Group races. These will be mainly over 1m2f and 1m4f upwards and I'd expect a lot of the prices to be quite short. I believe the best horses usually win the best races (Passage Of Time today, Finsceal Beo in 1,000 Guineas etc) and I prefer the better races with the smaller fields when trying to pick a classy winner. I try not to bet under 2-1 unless I'm really confident but my 2 biggest bets were on horses under 2-1 at these type of distances in group 1 races. I'll keep a running total of wins/losses, strike rate, profit and returns etc starting with a 200 pt bank, average bets 10 or 20 pts either win or ew depending on price and confidence. First selections run tomorrow at York.

SportHorse Racing
Event2.15 York
SelectionAnna Pavlova
Strength10/10
Date17/05/2007
Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 2.75 (Back)
ReasoningA lot could depend on how much rain gets into the ground overnight as the forecast tomorrow is for good weather. I think the ground might be softer than Wednesday which would suit Anna Pavlova as it enjoys cut in the ground. Won easily last time out in a listed race worth 32k. Has a great course record, won here on soft, placed here on soft and good. The placed effort here was in a Group 2 race behind Rising Cross which ran respectably Wednesday. Echelon looks to be the main danger but it would need firmer ground and only beat Topatoo by a neck, which looked like a handicapper at best before that last race, which was a muddling affair. Course and distance form together with proven class and recent good form make this todays banker and if the ground gets any softer I could see this getting even shorter.
SportHorse Racing
Event2.45 York
SelectionAuthorized
Strength10/10
Date17/05/2007
Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 2.00 (Back)
ReasoningMade a slow start on it's debut but finished it's race well and pedigree suggests this type of trip will be more suited than the mile it ran over that day. Made it's debut in a class 2 race rather than a class 5 maiden and then leaped in class to win a Group 1 in great fashion, travelling well and quickening up well with an automatic response when asked for an effort. The form in that Group 1 is pretty solid with Eagle Mountian finishing 5th in the 2000 Guineas giving it a boost. Favourite for the Derby so anything less than a convincing win will see it drift but I think it will take this on the way to Epsom. I think Proponent and Raincoat look bigger dangers than Adagio but need to handle the step up in class and Raincoat has the advantage of a recent run.

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Good Luck with this. :hope :hope For a profitable future in this. I myself don't study alot of form like you guys do, But I for one do appreciate the effort and hard work that you guys do to try and come up with winners for us.. As I guess everybody else does as well.:ok So hopefully off to a Flyer today..:hope

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Forgot to add for the purposes of the thread tomorrows bets will be: 10PTS WIN - ANNA PAVLOVA 15 PTS WIN - AUTHORIZED
Chose the right horse with the 15pts. on :ok

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Thanks to everyone for the support. :ok 1 winner and 1 2nd and both ridden by Dettori. One a fantastic patient ride on Authorized :notworthy and the other not so great opting to go up the rail with Anna Pavlova, taking a cheeky look around and then getting nailed on the line. :wall 15pts Authorized 30 pts returned 10pts Anna Pavlova 0 pts returned 25pts staked 30 pts returned Selections 2 Winners 1 Losers 1 Strike Rate 50 % Profit/Loss + 5pts Current Bank 205 pts

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2 for tonight. 1 to win and 1 ew. It'll be 5pts EW Kames Park and 10pts Win Serengeti:

SportHorse Racing
Event7.30 Hamilton
SelectionSerengeti
Strength10/10
Date18/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price>Betfred @ 2.50 (Back)
ReasoningLooks to have the best form on offer which includes formlines with Silkwood going through a line with Man Of Vision and both those have looked like decent types. Does not hold Gp1 entries like stable mate Boscobel but stable jockey chose to ride this out of the 3 available. Boscobel has carried its head high previously too which is off putting. Short price but likely winner, raced on good to firm and aw but not on this ground. Should have no problem with the trip of 1m3f having forged clear last time out over 1m2f.
SportHorse Racing
Event8.35 Hamilton
SelectionKames Park (Each-Way)
Strength3/10
Date18/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price>Bet365 @ 17.00 (Back)
ReasoningThe race revolves around whether Scriptwriter is fit and ready to go but that's short enough at 2.2. The selection has run some cracking races in class 2 company on the all weather and has a quick turn of foot. Won over this distance and 2nd last time out on turf behind Kilimandscharo which was a respectable 3rd today at York. Price is too big to ignore for small ew stakes. Should be fine with the ground.

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Serengeti..... NON Runner Mate
Cheers mate :ok In that case it'll be 10pts win on Boscobel. :) JP Guillambert was down for the 1 ride at this meeting on Boscobel but has now been replaced by Fanning. Can't see it getting beat and have taken the 11-10 available with most firms. 10pts WIN Boscobel 7.30 Hamilton @ 11-10 (Paddy power)

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Good luck with the thread MOWGLI , Nice winner to start off with :clap :hope for BESCOBEL
BOSCOBEL - WINNER :nana :cow :nana Pissed it by about 6 lengths, bit of class there. Good decision by Johnstone not to run 2 decent horses against each other.

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

BOSCOBEL - WINNER :nana :cow :nana Pissed it by about 6 lengths, bit of class there. Good decision by Johnstone not to run 2 decent horses against each other.
:clap nice one mate - followed you in with a fiver (big bet for me lately :loon) :nana

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread I missed the 6-4 though and got on at 11-10. Never mind, still a winner. Glad you got on Aliando, more beer money for you for July. :beer

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

I missed the 6-4 though and got on at 11-10. Never mind' date=' still a winner. Glad you got on Aliando, more beer money for you for July. :beer[/quote'] yet another winner:ok well done mate

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