mowgli77 Posted June 19, 2007 Author Share Posted June 19, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Red Evie was disappointing (the little slut) and finished 2nd last. I really like the look of the 3.45 Ascot tomorrow but it's too close to call. If I was forced to have a bet my money would be on Dylan Thomas but I'm going to sit this one out and just enjoy the race. New Totals Total Staked 230 PTS New Bank 359 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 22 Winners/Places 10 Losers 12 Strike Rate 45% Profit/Loss + 159pts Yield 69% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 19, 2007 Share Posted June 19, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Still well in profit, Phil:clap And I agree, Evie...what a slut!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Curragh 30 June 2007 3:45 AUDI PRETTY POLLY STAKES (GROUP 1) (FILLIES & MARES) (3yo+) Winner £101,351.35 1m2f SOFT The 3 horses at the head of the betting seem to be the 3 most likely to win this race. Peeping Fawn has Group 1 form from the oaks and also behind Finsceal Beo but the thing to take from that race (oaks) was the fact it had a turn of foot that other horses don't always possess. It's had 5 races over a mile and was running on in many of them. Finally stepped up in trip in the Oaks and was just behind Light Shift, with both of them being 4 lengths from the 3rd horse. Should be fine on soft ground and has the legend Kieren Fallon on board, who was back to Group 1 winning ways last weekend. The other 2 that appeal are West Wind and Timarwa. West Wind will be fine with the trip and has won on good to soft and then won last time out on good ground in a Group 1 for Dettori. Has a very capable replacement with Murtagh on board and progressive and lightly raced but only won in France. Timarwa had stall problems on it's debut but soon forgot about them last time out when a 3 length winner of a Curragh maiden. Travelled well, in command and won with something to spare. Obvious doubts about what it beat as it was only a maiden but the display was impressive and comes from a respected yard with a top jockey on board. The horse it beat that day has also gone on to win by 5 lengths since. Certainly progressive and lightly raced and could be the one with most improvement here. Peeping Fawn gets the vote with the proven group 1 form in the bag, trainer in form and jockey riding like his life depends on it. The time off through suspension has given Fallon a new hunger and he can get another Group 1 victory today in Ireland. Best price 11-4 with Betfred which is stand out compared the 2-1 offered by some other bookies. Suggested bet: 20 PTS WIN - Peeping Fawn 3.45 Curragh (11-4 Betfred) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Curragh 30 June 2007 4:45 AT THE RACES CURRAGH CUP (GROUP 3) (3yo+) Winner £31,418.92 1m6f SOFT Peppertree Lane boasts the best form with it's victory over Day Flight in listed company the best form on offer. It also loves soft ground and has won on heavy, so any more rain would be fine. Ran 6 days ago in a Group 3 over 1m4f when in front of Alfie Flits but was disappointing to see it only finish 3rd when there was a lot of money on course for it. It was no match for Ivy Creek or The Geezer and lost by 4 1/2 lengths so the 5-4 makes no appeal to me. Mutakarrim was 2nd last time out behind Yeats, which has just won the Ascot Gold Cup so no problems with that form. It has won on soft and won at the course. The worry would be the trip, it has run 7 times over 1m6f and only managed 3 seconds. All The Good has only run in handicaps but has won 3 times over this trip. Clearly has something to find today to get involved in Group 3 company but has won on good to soft and up to class 2 level. Available at around 6-1/13-2. I'm willing to take on Peppertree Lane at the short price and split stakes between Mutakarrim and All The Good. The former is from Dermot Weld's yard and he has won this race twice in the last 8 years. The latter is stepping up from handicaps but loves the trip. Suggested Bets: 5 PTS WIN - Mutakarrim (7-1 Stan James) 5 PTS WIN - All The Good (13-2 Ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :hope hopefully a winner or two there mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Curragh 30 June 2007 3:45 AUDI PRETTY POLLY STAKES (GROUP 1) (FILLIES & MARES) (3yo+) Winner £101' date='351.35 1m2f SOFT The 3 horses at the head of the betting seem to be the 3 most likely to win this race. Peeping Fawn has Group 1 form from the oaks and also behind Finsceal Beo but the thing to take from that race (oaks) was the fact it had a turn of foot that other horses don't always possess. It's had 5 races over a mile and was running on in many of them. Finally stepped up in trip in the Oaks and was just behind Light Shift, with both of them being 4 lengths from the 3rd horse. Should be fine on soft ground and has the legend Kieren Fallon on board, who was back to Group 1 winning ways last weekend. The other 2 that appeal are West Wind and Timarwa. West Wind will be fine with the trip and has won on good to soft and then won last time out on good ground in a Group 1 for Dettori. Has a very capable replacement with Murtagh on board and progressive and lightly raced but only won in France. Timarwa had stall problems on it's debut but soon forgot about them last time out when a 3 length winner of a Curragh maiden. Travelled well, in command and won with something to spare. Obvious doubts about what it beat as it was only a maiden but the display was impressive and comes from a respected yard with a top jockey on board. The horse it beat that day has also gone on to win by 5 lengths since. Certainly progressive and lightly raced and could be the one with most improvement here. Peeping Fawn gets the vote with the proven group 1 form in the bag, trainer in form and jockey riding like his life depends on it. The time off through suspension has given Fallon a new hunger and he can get another Group 1 victory today in Ireland. Best price 11-4 with Betfred which is stand out compared the 2-1 offered by some other bookies. Suggested bet: 20 PTS WIN - Peeping Fawn 3.45 Curragh (11-4 Betfred) :notworthy well done mate!!! :nana:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Hope a few of you got on. I got a PM from John Lovell asking what I fancied in the 3.45 Curragh. Hope that was the answer you were looking for mate. :ok Back in the winners enclosure with this thread. :cow I was shouting 'KICK ON FALLON' at the TV, baby thought I was shouting at him and started crying. :cry He's ok now though. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well done MOWGLI , yer man FALLON is definately back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Today: 30 PTS Staked, 55 PTS Returned +25 PTS for the day New Totals Total Staked 260 PTS New Bank 384 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 25 Winners/Places 11 Losers 14 Strike Rate 44% Profit/Loss + 184pts Yield 71% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well done Phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice winner phil...... Profit on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 30, 2007 Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice going Phil, Missed them today,:sad Well truthfully I forgot to look,:wall Lets all win a few bob on monday at wolves.:ok Or better still get some more Winners tomorrow ready for Kill on Monday.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 5, 2007 Author Share Posted July 5, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread SANDOWN 3:50 WILLIAM EWART PROPERTIES GALA STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £14,762.80 1m2f7y SOFT Topatoo has improved from handicaps to a Group 3 win this season and likes soft conditions, winning on good to soft and placing on soft. It may not have much more improvement though and carries a penalty but looks to have some chance. Blue Bajan ran well in a class 2 handicap at Epsom and then improved again to finish 2nd of 4 to Maraahel in a Group 3 race. Ran again against Maraahel in a Group 2 and was outclassed, finishing 5th of 7. Has run at listed level on aw at Lingfield and keeps finding one too good. Has an obvious chance but very short price at about 2-1. Kong doesn't look good enough and has been tried repeatedly at group level, often disappointing and its group 3 win was in 2005. (1 win from 7 races at class 1 level) Ran on soft in May this year and was 6th of 7, beaten about 16 lengths over 1m4f. Up against it today, blinkers on again. Tam Lin is definitely good enough to win this race and has 3 wins and a place from 6 races at class 1 level. Ran on good to soft for first time last time out and faded away really tamely. May have needed that race but has temperament problems, flashes tail, carries head high and not too reliable. Reported to have run too freely last race so if Dettori settles it early will have every chance. Could be one to back in running. Fann has stepped up from handicap company but has been running over shorter trips. Disappointing this season but has won previously on good to soft. Hard to know if it will be ok on soft ground and still not convinced that 1m2f will suit today. Harland is lightly raced, really well thought of by connections and the one most likely to have improvement needed to win at this level. Needs that improvement as the form is way short of being good enough to win this with a maiden win from 3 runs and a poor 8th last time out in a Group 2 race. Had a Derby entry and has a further Group 2 entry in the future. Has run on good to soft so far and 10f should suit, faded last time out over 1m4f. New Beginning has won at class 5 and class 3 level but disappointed more recently in handicaps and looks out of its depth here. Only won on good to firm and soft conditions not in its favour. Summary: Blue Bajan is probably the most likely winner but is a bit short at 2-1. Tam Lin is an interesting runner with proven form at the level but can't be relied on. I'm willing to take a small ew bet on Harland having the improvement and potential needed at a decent price as this looks to be a very close race. Only 7 runners and only paying 2 places but if Harland is as good as Jarvis thinks it will take this on the way to bigger and better races. He was always confident about Silkwood and that has just done the business at Ascot recently. Trainer is also in quite good form. 5 PTS EW - HARLAND (Bet365 Early Price, Best Odds Guaranteed) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Great write up, Phil. Good luck with this, it's just a shame that only 7 go to post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Good luck with this one mate , and by the way the age record for the 5 runnings of this race is 3 y-olds - 4 wins , 4 y-old - 1 win. HARLAND only one of two 3y-olds entered . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 6, 2007 Author Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread If todays selection is 4-1 or under it is 10 pts win, otherwise 5 pts ew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Get in you dancer!! Great tip mowgli. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :clap:clap:clap well done mate.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Should've put that one in my trends thread :ok Another profitable pick WELL DONE SIR :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 6, 2007 Author Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Good luck with this one mate ' date=' and by the way the age record for the 5 runnings of this race is [b']3 y-olds - 4 wins , 4 y-old - 1 win. HARLAND only one of two 3y-olds entered . I logged on briefly this morning and liked that stat so had an extra £15 on it today. Only heard commentary, didn't see the race but sounded like it won in game style beating the dodgy Dettori horse: has temperament problems, flashes tail, carries head high and not too reliable Dettori seemed to have given it a good ride, kicked on from the front but when asked to battle and shown the whip it didn't want to know and flashed its tail again. Not Frankies fault if the horse has a bad attitude. :( Glad HARLAND won and glad I got my analysis right. I think that highlights what this racing section is all about and thanks to all for the comments of support, much appreciated. Nice 40pts profit for the day, puts the yield up even higher and the thread into more profit. :nana :cow :nana :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Glad HARLAND won and glad I got my analysis right. I think that highlights what this racing section is all about and thanks to all for the comments of support, much appreciated. Nice 40pts profit for the day, puts the yield up even higher and the thread into more profit. :nana :cow :nana :cow Well done mate. You're certainly right when you say thats what this racing section is all about. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Great winner Mowgli. As always, a superb write up which results in a superb winner:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remmer7 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Get in! :clap Cheers mate :ok Fab stuff :notworthy Fab thread :notworthy Fab win :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 6, 2007 Author Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Early price with most bookies was 4-1 and Bet365 were BOG on the race so todays bet is settled at 4-1. Had a long hard think about the 5pts ew but that was based on expected price of 8-1 as indicated on RP site last night. It was never going to be 8-1 so i thought lets go straight win if around 4-1 as indicated this morning. Today: 10 PTS staked 50 PTS returned (+40pts) New Totals Total Staked 270 PTS New Bank 424 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 26 Winners/Places 12 Losers 14 Strike Rate 46% Profit/Loss + 224pts Yield 83% (82.96 to be precise) :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Glad to see that the 3y-old stat worked out well for you :beer AMAAZING YIELD !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well done today mate..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evad Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread well done m8 a v.good winner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap Absolutely superb mate, great tipping !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wong Posted July 7, 2007 Share Posted July 7, 2007 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread well done Mowgli, you are absolutely superb, top draw. awesome stuff. Respect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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