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WoodyTHFC

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  • Birthday 09/11/1988

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  1. Re: Golf: The Open Championship Firstly, I have mentioned on other parts of this forum before how I will not have direct contact with a certain individual on this forum ever again but I will have some indirect comments about some of the comments on here especially since that the individual concerned already highlighted my post when I didn’t even mention one name. Apparently an individual claims, ‘I don't discourage any selections’ and ‘I encourage all selections’ but previously had said, ‘Don't back Michael Campbell.’ Clearly all those statements are in complete agreement then. Also this individual claims the likes of Greg Norman had recent form before the 2008 Open. Well of course the BMW Asian Open (3 months before the Open) and a T14th placing is such great evidence of such recent form and completely ignores the fact it is the only tournament that Norman had shown anything in for ages and basically played or that the last time Norman had even competed in any Major was the last time Jack Nicklaus played. Chris Wood may have shown some form at a lower level but hadn’t done anything in any kind of proper European tour event. Ben Curtis only had one half decent event before the Open and that was a 13th in a small PGA Tour event that actually enabled him to qualify and up until that point prove a best in professional golf. What about this year’s US Open? Ricky Barnes at one point was a clear leader and ultimately had a share of second. He had been playing on the nationwide tour the year earlier and had a really impressive best of T47 on the PGA tour that season before his US Open effort. David Duval had no current form really at all (went into the event world no.882), he hadn’t even got past no.55 in an event on the PGA Tour and yet he suddenly discovered some old magic and shared second with Barnes. So it shows guys with hardly any if indeed any notable recent form can surprise and shock on occasions. For what it is worth I don’t fancy Michael Campbell myself and probably given his bad form would look to oppose him in 3 balls if anything despite the fact that he has some solid Open background (54 hole leader at St Andrews in 1995 and 6 Open cuts made on the trot) but I certainly wont be going round on a betting forum, where people put up selections, to say to someone else, ‘Don't back Michael Campbell,’ or for that matter any golfer or any selection anywhere. How are new people going to be encouraged to post on here if someone turns round and says not to back that individual? Its sets a bad precedent imo. Anyway if I’m allowed to carry on I have some first round 3 balls and for this championship I will include some outrights at times: C.Villegas to beat S.O’Hair and Y.Ikeda 23/20 tote 10 pts Essentially I feel this is a two horse race. Ikeda qualified through the Asian route and has won some big tournaments out there but has no experience of links golf and a test like the Open so has something to prove. O’Hair is a clear threat, a winner this year and in very good form in general albeit he hasn’t shown as much in his last threats. He also showed a bit in his first two Open’s but hasn’t done as much in his last two Open’s. However Villegas could go well this week. Whilst he hasn’t quite hit the heights of last year, he has been consistent enough and has shown the odd good week, a 3rd and a 5th and also has some solid Open history from last year when he was bang up there until a long wait halfway through round 3 seemed to hurt him badly. I just like the Colombian in this 3 ball. L.Donald to beat D.Clarke and A.Yano 6/5 sj 10 pts I spoke of Donald in my outright and I feel he can go well this week. Despite not as successful recent form compared to his early year form, it is still better than his two companions here. An inform Clarke is a clear threat but he has shown little for some time. Possibly hurt by sir nick’s rejection of him last year, he has a best of just 1 top 15 in his last 13 starts, 5 m/c in that period and not much when he made the cut. The Asian player has played a bit in various parts in the world and did at least make the cut at the US Open but he struggled last week in the Scottish Open where he m/c and also m/c on his only other Open appearance. Donald for me in this 3 ball. D.Howell to beat S.Cink and T.Jaidee 3/1 lad 10 pts A bigger price here but one who could surprise. Howell’s current form hardly inspires at all, he has only made 4 cuts all year. However he has always been someone who can prosper on links courses as shown last year when he came through into T7 and maybe a return to a links course could spur some kind of form. In short though I’m not as keen on his rivals. Cink a clear class act on his day but not in great form, only 1 top 10 in stroke play events since last years Open. Jaidee has been solid enough of late with 6 cuts made out of 7 but hasn’t really gone on from that or have any history in the Open and Howell could bounce back here especially if gets hot with the putter like he can on his day. R.Jacquelin to beat M.Goggin and K.Duke 11/8 sj 10 pts Jacquelin came with a great run last week at the Scottish Open to come T2 and claim the final qualifying spot so clearly he has some kind of form. Whilst he has been very erratic apart from that, he did have a T2 and a T5 so when he gets it right he can be a threat. Also he has played ok in the Open in the past, one T13 and but for a final round 79 last year he would have been much higher last year. Goggin hasn’t made the cut in his previous Open’s and after a decent start to the year hasn’t performed as well lately, 2 cuts made in 6. Duke had a shocking time in his last Open when +14 and missing the cut. He also has missed 10 cuts this year and hasn’t made a top 25 yet so clearly lacks current form which Jacquelin doesn’t and I think he can win this 3 ball. H.Mahan to beat J.Rose and A.Romero 5/4 skyb 10 pts I spoke of Mahan in my outrights and mentioned his very good current form, slight Open background and possibility of a decent week. Rose and Romero’s both have major Open pedigrees and both have come close to winning it in the past. However both are not playing as well as Mahan atm or for that matter playing that well full stop. Rose has had one second but no other top 15s and a host of m/c compared to Mahan’s none and Romero had one T3 earlier in the year but has missed cuts galore after that. Mahan for me in this 3 ball. D.Love III to beat S.Appleby and P.Lawrie 13/8 sj 10 pts Love III came through qualifying and he should enjoy the Open. His previous record is exceptional without winning, 5 top 10s and also 4 other top 21s. His game looked on the decline for a while but he has had a revival of sorts, a 3,6 and 1 late last year. Then a second to start of this year and some other steady efforts including a T5 at the Memorial. Appleby’s game in contrast hasn’t had a revival. For a long time a lock in seemingly in the top 50 in the world, he is now world no.83, just one top 10 and a spell a few weeks back of 4 m/c out of 5 and the week he made the cut he was 72. Lawrie is a former winner but his form since that seemingly one off win hardly inspires and that can be said of his current form as well with beside 1 top 10, not a single event inside the top 20. Love III has the best current form of this trio and I select him here. F.Jacobson to beat C.Hoffman and J.Kingston 7/4 lad 10 pts I spoke about Jacobson in my outright and mentioned that despite inconsistent form, his odd run at the Open including last year, hint of form in the odd event this year and the fact he was good enough to qualify suggest he could go ok. Hoffman is a danger. He has played quite well this year including one second and hasn’t missed a cut for a year however Jacobson’s extra experience of links golf could well help him there. As for Kingston he came second in the Scottish Open last year but since then hasn’t really kicked on, some good weeks and a few top 10s but not really threatening the winners sction. The swede for me here. T.Levet to beat K.Sutherland and R S Johnson 6/5 cor 10 pts Levet came so close to winning this in 2002 and also had a T5 two years later so clearly he enjoys links golf he could make the most of his late entry here. Also his form has been pretty good this year, 1 win and also 3 top 10s since then. Sutherland’s form is nowhere near as good with just one top 10 all year and whilst he played well on his Open debut in 2001, he struggled in his next year and this is his first return since. Johnson’s form wasn’t too bad early on in the year but since then it has been poor as 5 m/c in 9 and no finish better than 45 when he did get through. Levet for me in this one.
  2. Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 Worcestershire to beat Yorkshire 8/11 bluesq 10 pts Worcestershire are a useful team in one day games and I fancy them here despite being comfortable odds on shots. They played well for most of the FP campaign before a terrible loss to Ireland saw them miss out and similarly played well in parts in the 20 20 ultimately to miss out in the group stage. However I much prefer them to Yorkshire here. Yorkshire’s one day cricket has been average this year, especially when considered there near and sometimes unfortunate misses last year. They have the likes of Rudolph, McGrath and Gale with the bat but always seem a batsman or two light and too reliant on the tail to get them out of trouble. Worcestershire have a slightly heavier batting line up, Solanki, Davies, Smith, Moore and Ali. Also their bowling attack looks strong especially if Ali plays and a few early wickets could see Yorkshire in trouble here and I fancy Worcester to come through this game.
  3. Re: Golf: The Open Championship A great event in prospect this week and good luck to everyone whoever they select. Certainly I wouldn’t say to anyone not to back any particular individual particular on a forum where selections are supposedly encouraged. Remember Greg Norman and also unknown amateur Wood being placed last year and even Curtis and Hamilton winning it as unknowns a few years ago. Anyway outrights for me now on both the championship itself and specialist markets. I will come back with some 3 balls for the first round before the start. 48 pts staked on outrights and a reluctant non pick of Stenson who I could easily see going very close again this week: H.Mahan 33/1 sj 5 pts e.w (1/4 odds 6 places) and top American w/Woods 8/1 cor 5 pts I advised Mahan at the US Open and I thought he was unlucky in that final round there. He played as good as golf tee to green as anyone and going to the 16th hole he was bang in contention only to see his approach smack the pin and bounce over 50 yards away, fail to get up and down and then 3 putt the next and ultimately just come up short. However he has bounced back so well and clearly is one of the form golfers around. He came fourth in his next event and then just failed to get to Tiger despite a last round 62 lto and eventually came second. He has been pretty solid stuff for a while as shown by no missed cut since the PGA last year and just lately has upped it a touch. Also he has some Open pedigree when he came through with a 65 in the last round two years back to get to sixth. Overall he is a man in form who I can see going really well this week. J.Furyk 33/1 pp 5 pts e.w (1/4 odds 7 places) and top American w/Woods 8/1 cor 5 pts Furyk is always a golfer who seems to be bang in contention in majors and that includes the Open. He strangely missed 5 cuts in a row in it but each side of that he has 4 top 5s and also 2 other top 12 finishes so he is no stranger to links golf. His consistency this year has been very good without winning, 8 times he has been in the top 11 in events and that’s very solid. I also reiterate what I said on the masters thread about his putting. It seems to have improved a bit this year, certainly the stats on his putting are much better than in previous years and given that after a larger sample size as well that’s pretty good. I often think the better putters really propser at the Open and I could see another solid performance by Furyk this week. L.Donald 90/1 boy 3 pts e.w (1/4 odds 7 places) and top European 40/1 spo 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 4 places) Donald is a golfer like a few Brits who has not fulfilled his real promise as he once suggested too. Indeed he is bordering on becoming disappointing but I don’t think he is one to completely give up on yet. He started the year well enough on comeback from a wrist injury suffered last year. He had a second and also 5 other top 14 finishes although most of them were in the early part of the year. Since then though his form hasn’t been as good in his most recent outings and also his Open record in general is poor. However he can still play links golf fine, he came very close to winning the dunhill links event a few years back and I also like the way his putting stats are this year. He features right near the top of PPR and indeed tops PPGIR. If he can translate that to the greens in Scotland he could be a danger still. F.Jacobson 250/1 pp 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 7 places) and top European 80/1 pp 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 4 places) A bit of a wild shot here but one with a bit of Open pedigree of sorts and whilst his form is extremely inconsistent, he has had a couple noteworthy events this year. The current world no.101 has had two top 5s and well as an 11 place so it is not as if his game has gone completely. Also he had to come through qualifying to get here and played a couple of good rounds to get here. In 2003 he was 6th in the Open and even last year he was better than the T19 suggests, he had 3 solid rounds that week just for a 79 on sat to really hit him and cost him automatic entry for this year. He is another one who can be very hot with the putter when in form and he could surprise.
  4. Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 Middlesex to beat Warwickshire 11/8 sj 10 pts I’m backing my home county again. It hasn’t exactly proved successful so far this season but I’ still not sure they should be as big as they are here. Yes they were awful in the county at Leicester last game but they are so inconsistent it would just be them to go out and win this today. Their 20 20 campaign was awful but they did improve as it went on and they got some more players back. Also in the FP they actually came past Warwickshire in the group stage before losing with a depleted side against possible winners Hampshire. They don’t have Kartik today which is a blow but Udal and Malan can still provide decent spin options with Finn, Henderson and the under rated Murtagh providing seam options. The batting still has some top class players like Shah, Morgan and hopefully Compton, Malan and even the Aussie with an English mother Robson who is in the squad and looks a useful prospect. Warwickshire’s 12 doesnt include Bell and also has no Patel so its slightly weaker and whilst on form the Bears could be said to be marginal favs, I’m not sure its anything more than that.
  5. Re: BBOTD - Mon 13th July Wind 8.30 Respite 1 pt win I spoke quite positively about this one lto where I thought she went into a donc handicap very fairly treated off 72 and as it was she ran well without quite being good enough that day. Her earlier form looked smart enough including a second behind fantasia and an a/w win which was better than the winning margin indicates as she idled in front. She is actually better off with the horse she beat that day as well. The question mark I suppose is the extra trip. Lto over 7f she was pushed along a fair way out before plugging on without the best of runs and that run encourages trip wise and if she sees out the trip here, she should go close.
  6. Re: Wolverhampton 13th July (eve) 8.50 Dixey 5/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w A race here with a few out of form performers. Arguably Dixey has been one of them and she hasn’t progressed as she promised to at one stage. However looking at her relatives I believe on an a.w surface she could well propser yet and this is such a weaker race then many she has been in of late. Last year she won a class 2 and even at the start of this year she want that disgraced in a listed race. Even here effort at sand lto wasn’t too bad and in this weaker contest she could be a threat.
  7. Re: Windsor Mon eve 13th July 8.30 Respite 2/1 bet3 bog 10 pts I spoke quite positively about this one lto where I thought she went into a donc handicap very fairly treated off 72 and as it was she ran well without quite being good enough that day. Her earlier form looked smart enough including a second behind fantasia and an a/w win which was better than the winning margin indicates as she idled in front. She is actually better off with the horse she beat that day as well. The question mark I suppose is the extra trip. Lto over 7f she was pushed along a fair way out before plugging on without the best of runs and that run encourages trip wise and if she sees out the trip here, she should go close.
  8. Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2009 Bets Staked 3971pts Returned 3514.4pts P/L -456.6 Yield -11.49% Strike rate 30.96% (109/352) Wolv 8.50 Dixey 5/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w A race here with a few out of form performers. Arguably Dixey has been one of them and she hasn’t progressed as she promised to at one stage. However looking at her relatives I believe on an a.w surface she could well propser yet and this is such a weaker race then many she has been in of late. Last year she won a class 2 and even at the start of this year she want that disgraced in a listed race. Even here effort at sand lto wasn’t too bad and in this weaker contest she could be a threat. Winds 8.30 Respite 2/1 bet3 bog 10 pts I spoke quite positively about this one lto where I thought she went into a donc handicap very fairly treated off 72 and as it was she ran well without quite being good enough that day. Her earlier form looked smart enough including a second behind fantasia and an a/w win which was better than the winning margin indicates as she idled in front. She is actually better off with the horse she beat that day as well. The question mark I suppose is the extra trip. Lto over 7f she was pushed along a fair way out before plugging on without the best of runs and that run encourages trip wise and if she sees out the trip here, she should go close.
  9. Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 One outright in division 2: Kent 7/2 pp 10 pts Kent always seem to send out strong sides even with injuries and call ups and their depth sets them apart really. They have a good batting line up like Key, Denly, MVJ, Stevens and then guys who can accelerate like Kemp, Stevens again, Jones and Mahmood. They bat so deep and really always have the capability to post heavy totals. Their bowling is also strong, Parnell just for 2 games but the likes of McLaren, Khan, Cook, Joseph and spin from Treadwell and it just looks a very strong outfit. They somehow managed to miss out on promotion in this last year but will want to put that right this campaign and the only way they can do so is by winning this division and I can see them doing just that.
  10. Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 Two outrights in division 1: Somerset 11/2 bluesq 5 pts e.w (1/5 odds 3 places) Somerset are a team in brilliant form. In the FP campaign the won their group with ease before falling to a superb run chase by possible future champs Sussex in the q/f. In the 20 20 they came through their group and look a massive threat in that comp. Even in the county championship they have found some form and managed to win some games despite their almost renowned ‘poor’ bowling attack. Their strength is definitely their batting and really all the top 6 are match winners: Tresco, Langer, Hildreth, De Bruyn, Kieswetter and the ever so powerful Trego. They will always be a threat with a line up like that. As for the weaker bowler they still have Willoughby who at times can be economical and also a class depth bowler like Thomas which is a must in one day cricket. Overall their batting is always going to make them dangerous and combined with their good form, I can see them being there or thereabouts. Sussex 6/1 sj 5 pts e.w (1/5 odds 3 places) Another side in good form are Sussex. Maybe less so in county cricket but certainly in the one day stuff. They are in a Lords final in the FP and also came through the 20 20s and look to have a good chance to get to the last 4. Also they are the defending champs for this after what Murray Goodwin did at Trent Bridge last autumn. Indeed I think the side they have now is arguably stronger than the side they had last year. Primarily that is due to the classy and in form Joyce but even the development of players like Nash and even D.Smith who has such match winning capabilities and in 20 20 cricket this year, at all sorts of levels, has improved his form from last year seemingly. There are also class like Goodwin (providing they pick him) and workers like Yardy. Luke Wright should also play some games. The bowling a bit like Somerset is weaker but still has some strength with Arafat, Kirtley and a number part time spinners who can be difficult to get away. Overall Sussex are a solid side who could go well in this once again. Also one for this first game: Sussex to beat Essex 11/10 boy 10 pts I said a bit about Sussex in my outright post and I like them here at Chelmsford. Going to Chelmsford is never easy but perhaps not as hard as in past years and Sussex have already had success there this season. Essex are missing three big names in Cook, Bopara and Kanieria and none of them are really replaced. They still have some dangerous names like Amla, RTD, Foster and Napier but their line up is nowhere near as strong as it might be. Whereas Sussex look to have a strong side out on paper. A core of Joyce, Goodwin and Yardy and then hitters like Nash, Wright and Smith. The bowling has canny part time spinners as well as pace options from Kirtley and Arafat who also can bowl well at the depth, something Essex can struggle to do as well and overall I like the defending champs here.
  11. Curr 3.40 Sariska 1 pt win On this ground I feel Sariska could be very hard to beat. I actually feel a softer surface could help here even more, she handled it well on her eye catching seasonal debut but given she is by pivotal who can like a bit of cut and that she is a half sister to gull wing who thrives with some cut. Before Epsom she looked classy given her York win but still had to adequately prove stamina and she did that by winning the oaks. On that win, there is very little between Midday and Sariska but I’m not sure about Cecil’s filly on this ground and none of the Irish challengers appeal to me that much. Sariska could be very tough to beat here.
  12. Re: Curragh 12/7/09 2.35 She’s Our Mark 9/2 spo 10 pts This mare has been in really good form for a while now and with conditions to suit she can go close today. She has shown she can act on various grounds but I generally feel she comes into her own when there is at least some cut and she will more than get that today. She demonstrated her solid form best this season when beating Chinese White on heavy and she ran a perfectly fine race at royal ascot to be fifth over a trip slightly inadequate for here. A furlong further today which is much more ideal and on this ground she has a clear chance. 3.05 Walk on Bye 3/1 boy bog 10 pts A tough two year old race to call given the unknowns of the ground for some of these but one I like is Walk on Bye for a yard who won this race two years back. As a filly she gets a few pounds from some of these and in these types of conditions that could well help. On OR she needs to step up from just one maiden win by a narrow margin but she was worth much more than the winning margin that day as she had a luckless trip and she looks well capable of further improvement on her next start. She is proven at this trip on this course and particularly as there could be some holes in Beethoven, notably ground and that the Chesham had a bit of a let down at hq last week, she could surprise. 3.40 Sariska 11/10 boy bog 15 pts On this ground I feel Sariska could be very hard to beat. I actually feel a softer surface could help here even more, she handled it well on her eye catching seasonal debut but given she is by pivotal who can like a bit of cut and that she is a half sister to gull wing who thrives with some cut. Before Epsom she looked classy given her York win but still had to adequately prove stamina and she did that by winning the oaks. On that win, there is very little between Midday and Sariska but I’m not sure about Cecil’s filly on this ground and none of the Irish challengers appeal to me that much. Sariska could be very tough to beat here.
  13. Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2009 Bets Staked 3936pts Returned 3387.9pts P/L -548.1 Yield -13.92% Strike rate 30.72% (106/349) Curr 2.35 She’s Our Mark 9/2 spo 10 pts This mare has been in really good form for a while now and with conditions to suit she can go close today. She has shown she can act on various grounds but I generally feel she comes into her own when there is at least some cut and she will more than get that today. She demonstrated her solid form best this season when beating Chinese White on heavy and she ran a perfectly fine race at royal ascot to be fifth over a trip slightly inadequate for here. A furlong further today which is much more ideal and on this ground she has a clear chance. 3.05 Walk on Bye 3/1 boy bog 10 pts A tough two year old race to call given the unknowns of the ground for some of these but one I like is Walk on Bye for a yard who won this race two years back. As a filly she gets a few pounds from some of these and in these types of conditions that could well help. On OR she needs to step up from just one maiden win by a narrow margin but she was worth much more than the winning margin that day as she had a luckless trip and she looks well capable of further improvement on her next start. She is proven at this trip on this course and particularly as there could be some holes in Beethoven, notably ground and that the Chesham had a bit of a let down at hq last week, she could surprise. 3.40 Sariska 11/10 boy bog 15 pts On this ground I feel Sariska could be very hard to beat. I actually feel a softer surface could help here even more, she handled it well on her eye catching seasonal debut but given she is by pivotal who can like a bit of cut and that she is a half sister to gull wing who thrives with some cut. Before Epsom she looked classy given her York win but still had to adequately prove stamina and she did that by winning the oaks. On that win, there is very little between Midday and Sariska but I’m not sure about Cecil’s filly on this ground and none of the Irish challengers appeal to me that much. Sariska could be very tough to beat here.
  14. Re: Best bet of the day - Sat - 11/7/09 York 3.10 Albaqaa 0.5 pts e.w I nearly backed this lto having put him up before to see him just out of the frame but was put off by his wide draw that day so left him, only for him to then run a cracker and only just find one too good. Once again he has a poor draw but I’m going for him today. His trainer’s record in this race is top notch and interestingly the last two winners of this race he has had, followed a very similar path to this one by starting off at pont at the start of the season. This one was third that day before then his fourth at the track for which he is better off with the winner today. However his run lto despite his draw just indicated his really solid form again and despite another wide draw I can see him close again.
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