Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Just the one for today: The Geezer 4.20 Sandown Yet to prove it really gets 2m but is the class horse in the race and the 1m4f was probably too short last time out. Only lost by 1 1/2 lengths to the progressive and impressive Ivy Creek. Finished in front of Peppertree Lane that race, which went on to win last week at the Curragh, boosting that form. Was returning from a long break, has shaken off any cobwebs and can get back to winning ways today on ground that will be fine. Finished 2nd in the 2005 St Leger behind Scorpion and that was 15f on heavy ground. Available at 5-4 with Bet365. I don't think Alambic has any chance if it could not beat Great As Gold in a handicap. Balkan Knight might be out of its depth but has some chance and Finalmente is the main danger with 4th to Yeats its standout form but I think The Geezer will be too classy for these. Suggested Bets: 10PTS WIN - The Geezer (5-4 with Bet365)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Was wondering whether to include this all day or just leave it alone. It was absolute rubbish, didn't get the trip and finished last of 4. :loon I'll update totals later. :cry

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Saturday 10PTS Staked 0 PTS returned :@ New Totals Total Staked 280 PTS New Bank 414 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 27 Winners/Places 12 Losers 15 Strike Rate 44% Profit/Loss + 214pts Yield 76 % Some good races this week at Newmarket and I've got one lined up for Wednesday in a 1m4f Group 2 race that might be a decent price, highly progressive and won last time out. I'll check ground etc beforehand but almost sure this will be a selection. Also look out for Speed Gifted on Thursday (L Cumani's stable), up to listed level on 2nd run but supposedly flew home last time out. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2 selections for today, both in Group races, both at Newmarket and hoping to increase the yield and profit by the end of the day. :) 3:10 UAE HYDRA PROPERTIES FALMOUTH STAKES (GROUP 1) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £113,560.00 1m GOOD I think this race revolves around three horses, which are Nannina, Red Evie and Arch Swing. Nannina is 4 year old, has winning form at Group 1 level and ran a fine race last time out in a Group 2 over this trip. I’m not fully convinced by some of its form though in Group races when it has been well beaten fairly and squarely, including when beaten by Red Evie in Ireland. Nannina likes it firm and trainer states it won’t run if ground is not suitable so watch out for any withdrawals as it will affect paying 2 or 3 places. Red Evie improved beyond expectations last season and came back with a good run to beat Ramonti, which then reversed form last time out when Red Evie was disappointing and only managed to finish 7^th of 8. I can see this drifting due to Spencer’s current form and he can’t really be backed with confidence on fancied rides at the moment. The one I really like the look of is Arch Swing, which I think is much better than the bare form and was very unlucky last time out when struggling to get a run and getting blocked in repeatedly under Kinane. It ran well in the 2000 Guineas and had no chance with Finsceal Beo, was sore the race after but back to form when blocked in as explained. I think this has more improvement than some of the others at 3-year-old and beware of comments from the so-called experts. They seem to think the 3-year-olds will struggle in this race against their elders with comments like this "ground coming in her favour but needs a career-best against these top older fillies". A quick look at the trends shows out of the last 10 years this race has been won 6 times by 3 year olds and they get to carry less weight due to age. Arch Swing’s last race was on good to soft so the drying ground can only help and it should have a clear chance if having a clear run. Early indications are that it will go off about 9-2. Out of those left I think Speciosa is over rated and won a poor 1000 Guineas and hasn’t done much since, was 7^th of 8 behind Red Evie. Bahia Breeze is outclassed, only won at listed level. Irridescence could be the surprise package but form is not in this country and hard to know what to make of it. Simply Perfect and Sweet Lily need to improve to get anywhere near. Suggested Bet – 10PTS WIN Arch Swing (currently 9-2, bet will be with Bet365 if odds are better and guaranteed but currently they only go 4-1.) Hard to predict price when posting night before. :wall ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:45 HBLB LANCASHIRE OAKS (FILLIES & MARES) (GROUP 2) (CLASS ) (3yo+) Winner £34,068.00 1m4f GOOD I think Mont Etoile may be the most likely winner of this race and is one of only 4 distance winners out of a field of 13 runners. It has winning distance form at Group 2 level and ran a fine race over an unsuitable mile behind Expensive last time out. Will be better at this trip but expected odds of 5-2 are quite short. Turbo Linn is an interesting runner but will have to prove itself in higher class races than the maiden it won to get my money. Scatina looks the most interesting of the three 3 year olds in the race. It was 3^rd in the Italian Oaks and was running on over 11f. The horse that I will be backing is Trick Or Treat. It was really disappointing in a Group 3 race last time out but won well in a listed contest before that on good to firm over this trip. It likes to bowl along in front and has Dettori on board to dictate the pace. It made all that day but travelled really well and was not ridden until the final furlong. It knows how to battle too when beating Ask in a duel in 2006 in a class 2 handicap. That form is strong with Ask having a formline from the St Leger, which has been boosted several times in Group races. If Dettori gets it right and leaves enough in the tank it could kick on front and be hard to pass, especially with so many unproven over a trip this far. I think a reverse forecast on Mont Etoile and Trick or Treat may be worth a few pounds but for single bets the odds of 12-1 on Trick or Treat stand out more than the 5-2 on Mont Etoile. Trick or Treat is stepping up in class again and might not get an easy lead but is worth backing each way at that price. Rising Cross will be fancied back against its own sex but I’m not convinced it is good enough and has to prove this trip is ideal. Many of the others will be big prices and look out of their depth. Portal is short enough at around 9-2 when it’s best form has been over 10f. Suggested Bet – 5PTS EW Trick or Treat (12-1 Bet 365, Best Odds Guaranteed) Good Luck :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Not even a place today, bloody rubbish. Staked 20PTS Returned 0PTS Loss of 20PTS New Totals Total Staked 300 PTS New Bank 394 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 29 Winners/Places 12 Losers 17 Strike Rate 41% Profit/Loss + 194pts Yield 65%

[aliando]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread jeez - aint had much chance to sniff around some of the threadds lately, but 65% yield :eek:eek:eek :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy keep it going mate!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Newmarket 1.30 Spice Route is likely to go off as favourite under Jamie Spencer and has won for him before over 10f but was only 5th last time out in a Group 2 behind Boscobel. Interesting comments from that race analysis:

Spice Route raced enthusiastically stuck wide in midfield and was another not best placed for the sprint up the straight. He also had to be angled out midtrack for daylight before edging closer, picking up takingly to suggest there is more to come.

Willing to oppose it at likely short odds as he could find himself in trouble on it again even if it will be suited by the step up in trip. The two I'm going to take each way are Wing Express and Galianna. Both are unproven at this level of racing and Galianna has the lowest BHB rating. Wing Express is from Cumanis yard and may have only won a maiden last time out but it improved for the step up in trip, won well enough and it's interesting that he's not aimed it at a handicap and decided to run it at Listed level instead. Clearly has improvement in it and may be able to get close at around 5-1. Galianna may have the lowest rating but I don't think it is the worst horse in the race and seems progressive enough to get involved at a big price. That also improved for the step up in trip and battled well to just get up at the finish. Some of the other more fancied horses have stamina doubts and this looks a good price at around 20-1 but needs to improve. Also interesting that Kinane rides for Eddery, who is in quite good form lately. Suggested bets: 5 PTS EW - Wing Express (Probably Paddy Power 9-2 unless better prices available in the morning) 5 PTS EW - Galianna (20-1 Bet365, BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Newmarket 3.10 The horse i've been waiting for finally runs at Group Level and I'm confident it will be in the winners enclosure by about 3.20pm. The selection is Ivy Creek and it has won two very strong listed contests over this trip recently. It's Goodwood race saw it get the better of Alfie Flits and Day Flight. When it won at Pontefract it beat Alfie Flits, The Geezer and Peppertree Lane. The latter went on to win a Group 3 race and The Geezer disappointed at the weekend but clearly didn't get the trip. It was ridden confidently by Steve Drowne, picked up nicely during its last race, made good headway and burst through with a good run to get up well. Unproven on good to firm but poor efforts on that ground more likely to do with the trip than the ground. Seemed to swerve right at the end of last race but the better ground was also up that rail. RP analysis said:

He was following up a similar Listed-race win at Goodwood last time and is plainly progressing soundly. He gives the impression he can hold his own in Group-race company.

That is exactly what I thought and was waiting to see what Group race it would go for. Will have to be the real deal to beat Sixties Icon if that is on form but the way that ran last time worried me and I don't think it was just the ground to blame. Suggested Bets: 20 PTS WIN - Ivy Creek (9-2 Bet365 BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Timarwa 3.30 Curragh Lightly raced, impressive winner of a Curragh maiden over 10f, likely to be suited by the soft-heavy ground and has Kinane in the saddle which is always a plus. Light Shift might not get the ground and Peeping Fawn has to prove 12f on this ground is ideal. Selection was not disgraced last time out and can improve again today. Suggested Bets: 5 PTS EW - Timarwa (9-1 Totesport)

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Timarwa 3.30 Curragh Lightly raced, impressive winner of a Curragh maiden over 10f, likely to be suited by the soft-heavy ground and has Kinane in the saddle which is always a plus. Light Shift might not get the ground and Peeping Fawn has to prove 12f on this ground is ideal. Selection was not disgraced last time out and can improve again today. Suggested Bets: 5 PTS EW - Timarwa (9-1 Totesport)

:hope Good Luck today mate.:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Newmarket the other day saw one placed at 5-1 in 1st race and one unplaced (20pts staked, 10pts returned) Ivy Creek was unplaced (-20pts) making it -30 for the day. Today saw Timarwa unplaced, simply wasn't good enough. Annoyed because I backed both that and Peeping Fawn and decided to leave the latter out of this thread. :wall Going downhill lately and that yield is dropping. :cry We need some firm ground cos this heavy is killing me. New Totals Total Staked 350 PTS New Bank 354 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 33 Winners/Places 13 Losers 20 Strike Rate 39% Profit/Loss + 154pts Yield 44% :(

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Figures look pretty good to me Phil! Agree about the ground though, dont mind it soft but when you get one meeting G/Firm and another 'unraceable' on the same day its a bit un-nerving to say the least. All the non-runners are not helping either, the complete make up of some races are being changed by this, referring to the draw it effects in some races, Chester yesterday a horse 'not well drawn in 8' ends up just 3 off the rail and leads all the way? Great going anyway mate!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Youmzain 4.20 Ascot 5pts EW @ 8-1 Betfred Out of the last ten runnings of this race 4 yr olds have won it 5 times and only 3 horses in the race fit that trend - Youmzain, Prince Flori and Dylan Thomas. The horse needs to be delivered late and when its got up its just been in the nick of time. Should have no problems with the ground and as most of the other trainers seem worried Channon seems confident of a big run, preparations have been spot on, the race has been a long term target and it is best at middle distances. a 1st, a 2nd and two 3rds for Richard Hughes, back on board today. Best price 8-1. I think at the shorter prices Scorpion is the most likely winner, can turn forn around with Maraahel who is often close but not quite good enough. Dylan Thomas is a very good horse but has had 2 clear chances of winning behind Notnowcato and Manduro and wasn't good enough, didn't have the heart for a battle and won't like the ground. Willing to oppose these and try get some value with Youmzain at a decent price. It has formlines with Rail Link and Red Rocks and they went on to win big races abroad, needs to be on top form today but signs are that it's ready.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Youmzain 4.20 Ascot 5pts EW @ 8-1 Betfred

2nd :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread I put down 8-1 for the bet but SP was even better at 12-1, still only 1/5th the odds thought which isn't great. 10 PTS staked, 13PTS returned New Totals Total Staked 360 PTS New Bank 357 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 34 Winners/Places 14 Losers 20 Strike Rate 41% Profit/Loss + 157pts Yield 44% :(

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread No match for the winner, but ran a nice race to get 2nd place. Well done on finding the value:clap And stop frowning at that yield - 44% is simply fantastic.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread I was surprised you didn't take the bet365 BOG to be honest. You always do.

[softie]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Really solid run, and what a terrific price in the end....good call.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Contentious 3.50 Pontefract Blue Ksar looks worthy of favouritism but I can't back it at that price. I don't like Tam Lin as it is a quirky, unreliable horse so I think 2nd place can be filled by Contentious and I also see Flying Clarets running a big race but maybe being outclassed. It was 2nd in a class 4 maiden on soft over 7f when it tracked leaders, stepped up on that to win a 1m race, on good to firm, again tracking leaders. Ran at listed level last time out and change of tactics to see it held up in 7th saw it finish 5th of 9. Dunlop is in great form and I always keep an eye on his sole runners at Pontefract as he is often the longest traveller, that applies today. Available at 12-1 with various bookies and worth a small ew if you want to avoid the fav at a short price. Obviously has to improve but is going the right way and progressing well. Suggested bets: 5 pts ew @ 12-1 Corals

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Contentious 3.50 Pontefract Blue Ksar looks worthy of favouritism but I can't back it at that price. I don't like Tam Lin as it is a quirky, unreliable horse so I think 2nd place can be filled by Contentious and I also see Flying Clarets running a big race but maybe being outclassed. It was 2nd in a class 4 maiden on soft over 7f when it tracked leaders, stepped up on that to win a 1m race, on good to firm, again tracking leaders. Ran at listed level last time out and change of tactics to see it held up in 7th saw it finish 5th of 9. Dunlop is in great form and I always keep an eye on his sole runners at Pontefract as he is often the longest traveller, that applies today. Available at 12-1 with various bookies and worth a small ew if you want to avoid the fav at a short price. Obviously has to improve but is going the right way and progressing well. Suggested bets: 5 pts ew @ 12-1 Corals

:clap:clap:clapExcellent going mate.:ok Everybody hitting some good form today..:clap:clap

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well done mate, can't argue with 2 2nds in the last 2 days against real hotpots:clap:clap Cracking prices too:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

RussP

Well done mate, can't argue with 2 2nds in the last 2 days against real hotpots:clap:clap Cracking prices too:ok

kevsul

Quote: Originally Posted by mowgli77 Contentious 3.50 Pontefract Blue Ksar looks worthy of favouritism but I can't back it at that price. I don't like Tam Lin as it is a quirky, unreliable horse so I think 2nd place can be filled by Contentious and I also see Flying Clarets running a big race but maybe being outclassed. It was 2nd in a class 4 maiden on soft over 7f when it tracked leaders, stepped up on that to win a 1m race, on good to firm, again tracking leaders. Ran at listed level last time out and change of tactics to see it held up in 7th saw it finish 5th of 9. Dunlop is in great form and I always keep an eye on his sole runners at Pontefract as he is often the longest traveller, that applies today. Available at 12-1 with various bookies and worth a small ew if you want to avoid the fav at a short price. Obviously has to improve but is going the right way and progressing well. Suggested bets: 5 pts ew @ 12-1 Corals :clap:clap:clapExcellent going mate.:ok Everybody hitting some good form today..:clap:clap

Cheers fellas. Had a feeling it would get placed today. I thought Blue Ksar was worthy fav but every time i back at short odds i get turned over. Might as well try find some ew value and eventually one of them will win at a decent price. Had a good touch on the forecast but backed it on exacta and it paid less than CSF. :wall Back to the tactics of tracking the leader and it travelled well, was never going to catch the fav though. Drifted from 11-1 to 16-1 in space of about 5 mins too.

[Sonoftherock]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Thanks Mowgli, I took Contentious this afternoon @ 12.00. Impressive stuff from yourself and RussP, both showing yields in excess of 40%! Quite incredible really.... long may it continue!

[peteg40]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well done today Phil...... nice 2nd.... keep them coming.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 12-1 advised today, returned at 16-1 SP :wall, today was 10pts staked 13 pts returned. Close but no cigar. I hope the ground dries out as there are some cracking races coming up at Goodwood. Hoping to get back over the 200pt profit mark and boost that yield a bit more. New Totals Total Staked 370 PTS New Bank 360 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 35 Winners/Places 15 Losers 20 Strike Rate 43% Profit/Loss + 160pts Yield 43%

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Done myself out of a few points profit, kindly pointed out by Russ. :ok I did returns at 1/5 odds but both races this weekend were non handicaps with less than 8 runners so it should be 1/4 odds. 5 pts EW Youmzain @ 8-1 (1/4 odds = 2-1) 10 PTS Staked, 15 pts returned 5 pts EW Contentious @ 12-1 (1/4 odds = 3-1) 10 PTS Staked, 20 pts returned New Totals Total Staked 370 PTS New Bank 369 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 35 Winners/Places 15 Losers 20 Strike Rate 43% Profit/Loss + 169pts Yield 46%

[aliando]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread still going very well mate - nice one!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2:50 GORDON STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £28,390.00 1m4f GOOD Horse by horse analysis Aqaleem Won the Lingfield Derby trial in style but didn’t look like it beat much. Ran better than I expected to get 3^rd in the Derby on good ground but looked outpaced and outclassed at Group 1 level over the 1m4f trip. Well fancied for the St Leger and has huge expectations. If it’s as good as expected it will have no trouble winning this Group 3 race. Will start as favourite but personally I have reservations over how good it is and will avoid it at the price. Mores Wells Has only run in Ireland so far and seemed suited by the 1m2f when it won at Leopardstown in a Group 3. Stamina to prove at this trip and no match for Soldier Of Fortune in the Irish Derby but that may have been due to heavy ground. Won an Irish maiden race on good ground but looks outclassed here and has to improve to get involved in a hot looking Group 3 race. Big Robert Does not currently hold any Group 1 entries and has failed to win at listed level or group 3 level out of 6 attempts and looks to be totally out of it’s depth here against horses likely to go on to better class races in the future. Won a class 3 race on soft last time out but won on good ground back in 2006. Form of its races does not look too strong. Champery Last of 8 in the Eclipse and does not look Group 1 class but has run with some credit at listed level. Not sure that form will be good enough to win this group 3 race. When stepped up to 10f at listed level it could only manage 8^th of 14 when it weakened over 1f out. Stamina issues and possibly outclassed. No wins on good, no wins at this trip, opposed. Heartshead Maison This horse beat Boscobel in a 1m2f class 2 handicap and that form boosted by Boscobel at Royal Ascot when it won a Group 2. Also managed to be 2^nd to Aqaleem in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Won a decent handicap last time out over 1m2f but stamina questions over this trip and was last when tried at 2m. Looks a good handicapper but unlikely to be involved in many group races. Has won on good ground but not at class 1 level. Heron Bay Beaten by Lion Sands in a Haydock maiden and went off as a well fancied 15-8 fav that day. Ran over 12f on good to firm last time out and won that class 2 handicap. Held in high regard by Geoff Wragg and he had this race in mind since June. Still lightly raced and improving all the time, showed a really good battling attitude and stuck it’s neck out to rally at the finish and get up on the line last time out. Could be over priced at 16-1. Lion Sands Had 3 runs in maidens and won the final one over 12f on good to firm ground. Stepped up to Group 2 level and was 4^th behind Boscobel, Lucarno and Yellowstone. Well fancied and gambled on that day. Still looks progressive, unexposed and capable of making its mark in a race like this for a trainer in form. Needs to improve but looks to have the potential to improve past horses like Yellowstone. Ryan Moore on board is a massive plus. Raincoat Poor run last time out in France when finishing 11^th of 20. Had looked very good before that with 2 wins and a 2^nd to Authorized in the Dante by 4 lengths. Won an Epsom conditions race in fine eyecatching style when quickening through a gap to go clear and only needed one crack of the whip to pick up well. Unproven on good ground but should be fine and seems versatile as it has won on good to firm and placed on good to soft. Should be suited by the extra 2f. A turn of foot is a massive plus and Richard Hughes gets on well with the horse. Tranquil Tiger Won a listed race when driven out over 13f by Richard Hughes last time out but he rides Raincoat. Ted Durcan has won on the horse and takes the ride today. Has run well over 10f and likely to improve and needs to. Should have no problem with the trip and could be anything. Hughes would probably have taken the ride if he had fancied its chances and that might indicate this has less chance than Raincoat today. Yellowstone Has had 9 runs and has only managed to win a maiden despite being tried in some top class races. Was no match for any number of decent horses including Authorized, Notnowcato, Cockney Rebel and Boscobel. Has a more realistic chance now running in Group 3 class despite being possibly exposed and other horses likely to improve past this one that are more lightly raced. 2 runs on good, both unplaced and has not won over this trip. I get the feeling this is so highly rated due to the trainer rather than it’s achievements. Trends/Topspeed The winners have had Racing Post Ratings varying between 110 to 123. The average rating over the last 11 runnings has been 116 and only 1 favourite and one joint favourite have won this race in those 11 years. There have been winners at 5-1, 7-1, 9-1, and 12-1 twice. RP ratings suggest this race might go to an unexposed horse with potential to improve. Aqaleem has a rating of 128 and Yellowstone has a rating of 133. I’m interested in Heron bay rated 117 RPR, Lion Sands rated 124 RPR and Raincoat rated 127 RPR. Yellowstone and Aqaleem have Topspeed ratings of 126 and 124, Raincoat is 119, Heron Bay 117 and Lion Sands 109. Mores Wells is one of the lesser fancied runners with a good speed rating of 122. Summary Aqaleem is expected to take this but the favourites stats aren’t great in the race and the Leger will be it’s long term target. Trainer has already said it will be hard to win and treats this more as a prep race. Yellowstone is at a more realistic level but seems exposed and could be vulnerable to improving horses. I’m willing to take the 2 market leaders on and with there being 10 runners paying 3 places I’m happy to take 3 each way at decent prices. It’s a rare case of potential rather than proven form for me today as I have reservations about the 2 mentioned. Suggested Bets 5 PTS EW – Raincoat (6-1 Betfred/William Hill) 5 PTS EW – Lion Sands (6-1 Tote/Paddy Power) 5 PTS EW – Heron Bay (14-1 Bet365, BOG) 30 PTS STAKED

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Dunelight 3.25 Goodwood Backed this when it won at Goodwood from the front and was impressed at how it ran them ragged over 1m in a listed race. Stepped up to group 2 last time out and tracked leaders before trying to kick for home. Was picking up nicely and had every chance but got bumped and lost all momentum. Looked very unlucky that day and worth another try at a course it clearly enjoys. Previous run here in a class 2 race saw it finish 2nd. Drops back to 7f today but could lead all the way and will definitely get home as it stays 1m. Has 2 wind and 2 thirds on good ground from 5 runs and a placed effort over 7f. 14-1 looks huge. Arabian Gleam 3.25 Goodwood This went in the PL notebook early on this season due to these comments from RP analysis:

Arabian Gleam

ARABIAN GLEAM was highly impressive and could have gone quicker, had anything been good enough to get closer. Arabian Gleam had shaped with promise on his debut here over 1f further four weeks earlier, staying on to be second, and proved equally effective at this shorter trip as odds-on favourite. He went best, led 2f out and drew clear on the run-in. He will be very hard to beat next time, assuming his sights aren't raised considerably - and even if they are, he might take some catching over 6f or 7f.

Finished 3rd in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot behind Tariq and US Ranger by about 3-4 lengths but is still lightly raced, progressive and unexposed. Seb Sanders rides and he is in fine form and has won on the horse already. Most firms go 9-1/10-1 but Sporting Odds are a standout 12-1 and this looks worthy of ew support today. It was running on and gaining last time out on good to firm and should be fine on good ground today. Suggested Bets: 5 PTS EW -Dunelight (14-1 Betfred) 5 PTS EW - Arabian Gleam (12-1 Sporting Odds)

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Dunelight 3.25 Goodwood Backed this when it won at Goodwood from the front and was impressed at how it ran them ragged over 1m in a listed race. Stepped up to group 2 last time out and tracked leaders before trying to kick for home. Was picking up nicely and had every chance but got bumped and lost all momentum. Looked very unlucky that day and worth another try at a course it clearly enjoys. Previous run here in a class 2 race saw it finish 2nd. Drops back to 7f today but could lead all the way and will definitely get home as it stays 1m. Has 2 wind and 2 thirds on good ground from 5 runs and a placed effort over 7f. 14-1 looks huge. Arabian Gleam 3.25 Goodwood This went in the PL notebook early on this season due to these comments from RP analysis:

Arabian Gleam

ARABIAN GLEAM

was highly impressive and could have gone quicker, had anything been good enough to get closer. Arabian Gleam had shaped with promise on his debut here over 1f further four weeks earlier, staying on to be second, and proved equally effective at this shorter trip as odds-on favourite. He went best, led 2f out and drew clear on the run-in. He will be very hard to beat next time, assuming his sights aren't raised considerably - and even if they are, he might take some catching over 6f or 7f.

Dunelight hangs on for 3rd..:clap:clap:clap I thought he was away and gone. 1.5 on betfair at one stage

Finished 3rd in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot behind Tariq and US Ranger by about 3-4 lengths but is still lightly raced, progressive and unexposed. Seb Sanders rides and he is in fine form and has won on the horse already. Most firms go 9-1/10-1 but Sporting Odds are a standout 12-1 and this looks worthy of ew support today. It was running on and gaining last time out on good to firm and should be fine on good ground today. Suggested Bets: 5 PTS EW -Dunelight (14-1 Betfred) 5 PTS EW - Arabian Gleam (12-1 Sporting Odds)