Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
Download the PL Forum App!
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

mowgli77
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 691
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Last 3 selections 30 pts staked with 65 pts returned after the Red Evie victory. New Totals Total Staked 505 PTS New Bank 466 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 46 Winners/Places 20 :) Losers 26 :( Strike Rate 43% Profit/Loss + 266pts :) Yield 53% :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Woodie

Woodie

Posted
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice to see her get back to winning ways, havn't seen any of the racing yesterday but she was returned a nice price. Top stuff. Still can't get over how bad her two previous runs were!! Would be nice to see her go on and win the Matron again now :ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Pontefract 3.40 6f Listed race The highly progressive Bee Eater looks the one to beat and has won 4 out of its 5 starts up to class 3 level and on a variety of grounds. It has performed well at Newmarket on a straight track but may find it harder from stall 10 on a track with a stiff uphill finish and a tight left turn at the 2f marker. I like it's chances but I don't like the price and instead will go for Song Of Passion which has won up to class 2 level and needs softer ground and the rain has come this afternoon in Yorkshire. Last 3 runs read 1,pu,1 but the pulled up was hampered, nearly fell and is a genuine excuse for a no show. Trainer and jockey in form and worth backing at 4-1. I'm also interested in Diamond Diva and can see it placing, if not winning. It's form reads 1,6,1,2 but the 6 was when it was hampered. Only just beaten last time out over 7f so drop back to 6f should be fine. Has won over the trip, up to class 2 level and placed on soft. The 2 choices are drawn stall 2 and stall 4 and are both worth taking to beat the fav. Suggested Bets: 5pts ew - Song Of Passion (4-1, BET365, BOG) 5pts ew - Diamond Diva (10-1 Ladbrokes)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kevsul

kevsul

Posted
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Pontefract 3.40 6f Listed race The highly progressive Bee Eater looks the one to beat and has won 4 out of its 5 starts up to class 3 level and on a variety of grounds. It has performed well at Newmarket on a straight track but may find it harder from stall 10 on a track with a stiff uphill finish and a tight left turn at the 2f marker. I like it's chances but I don't like the price and instead will go for Song Of Passion which has won up to class 2 level and needs softer ground and the rain has come this afternoon in Yorkshire. Last 3 runs read 1,pu,1 but the pulled up was hampered, nearly fell and is a genuine excuse for a no show. Trainer and jockey in form and worth backing at 4-1. I'm also interested in Diamond Diva and can see it placing, if not winning. It's form reads 1,6,1,2 but the 6 was when it was hampered. Only just beaten last time out over 7f so drop back to 6f should be fine. Has won over the trip, up to class 2 level and placed on soft. The 2 choices are drawn stall 2 and stall 4 and are both worth taking to beat the fav. Suggested Bets: 5pts ew - Song Of Passion (4-1, BET365, BOG) 5pts ew - Diamond Diva (10-1 Ladbrokes)
:clap:clap Well done on diamond diva..:clap:clap
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Unlucky today, but still only a very small loss thanks to a nice run from Diamond Diva. Place money landed at a very good EP of 10's. Hope the little 'un has had a good birthday, Phil:ok
Cheers Russ/Kev 20 pts staked today 15pts returned as it was 1/5 odds (10-1) so small loss on the day. Was considering leaving Song Of Passion alone at 4-1 but felt it might go close and it ran a stinker. :wall Glad I got it right to swerve Bee Eater though and it was the short price that put me off. The trainer was very bullish about Ripples Maid but I didn't fancy it today. Felt Diamond Diva would be in the money and it didn't disappoint me, Ladbrokes were standout at 10-1 with a few firms going 9's but generally 8-1 with other firms. Fallon has had a good birthday, front room is now full of presents, pissed it down all day but we had 3 gazebos up in garden and barbecue went ok. Everyone has just gone, nice to have our home back at last, better get offline soon and tidy up. :(
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread York 3.10 Group 1 1m2f This is what racing is all about. How exciting is it to see Dylan Thomas, Notnowcato and Authorized in the same race? The race revolves around these 3 horses and I believe that Authorized will show it is the real deal at York. It was highly impressive in the Dante and the Derby and has shown what a turn of foot it has got but it also has course form and this track will suit as in the Dante. Dylan Thomas was highly impressive last time out but that was over 12f and the drop back to 10f may not suit as it has been turned over by Manduro over 10f and by Notnowcato over 11f. It was also 4th in this last year, beaten at odds on and seems to need the 12f now. Notnowcato got the better of Authorized but only due to a tactical master class by Ryan Moore getting the better ground and running alone to beat Authorized last time out. People were too quick to write off Authorized but it won the race on that side and only just failed to get up, holding off George Washington in game style. It certainly didn't look as good as at Epsom and that may have been due to the shorter trip or maybe needed more of a break. Notnowcato was well beaten at Ascot behind Manduro and Dylan Thomas and I can't really buy the excuse that it needs cut in the ground as it beat Dylan Thomas on good to firm at the Curragh. Reports are that Authorized has been working well at home, trainer seems quite confident and the course form could be very important. This really is the clash of the titans and I see Dettori doing a flying dismount by about 3.20pm. One at a better price that might be worthy of some support is Asiatic Boy. Fantastic on the dirt over 7f - 9f it dropped back to 8f on turf last time out and was not disgraced, beaten only by about 2 lengths and the winner that day Ramonti had previously been beaten by Red Evie which won at the weekend to boost that piece of form. My main concern is that it likes to lead or track leaders but has Jamie Spencer on board who likes to drop horses back and come late with a run. Could possibly find some ew support at around 7-1. Suggested Bets: 20pts WIN - Authorized (2-1 Ladbrokes) 2.5pts ew - Asiatic Boy (7-1 Ladbrokes) 25 pts staked in total

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kevsul

kevsul

Posted
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Unlucky today, but still only a very small loss thanks to a nice run from Diamond Diva. Place money landed at a very good EP of 10's. Hope the little 'un has had a good birthday, Phil:ok
Wow a year has passed quickly. Hope you all had a great day.:ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kevsul

kevsul

Posted
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

York 3.10 Group 1 1m2f This is what racing is all about. How exciting is it to see Dylan Thomas, Notnowcato and Authorized in the same race? The race revolves around these 3 horses and I believe that Authorized will show it is the real deal at York. It was highly impressive in the Dante and the Derby and has shown what a turn of foot it has got but it also has course form and this track will suit as in the Dante. Dylan Thomas was highly impressive last time out but that was over 12f and the drop back to 10f may not suit as it has been turned over by Manduro over 10f and by Notnowcato over 11f. It was also 4th in this last year, beaten at odds on and seems to need the 12f now. Notnowcato got the better of Authorized but only due to a tactical master class by Ryan Moore getting the better ground and running alone to beat Authorized last time out. People were too quick to write off Authorized but it won the race on that side and only just failed to get up, holding off George Washington in game style. It certainly didn't look as good as at Epsom and that may have been due to the shorter trip or maybe needed more of a break. Notnowcato was well beaten at Ascot behind Manduro and Dylan Thomas and I can't really buy the excuse that it needs cut in the ground as it beat Dylan Thomas on good to firm at the Curragh. Reports are that Authorized has been working well at home, trainer seems quite confident and the course form could be very important. This really is the clash of the titans and I see Dettori doing a flying dismount by about 3.20pm. One at a better price that might be worthy of some support is Asiatic Boy. Fantastic on the dirt over 7f - 9f it dropped back to 8f on turf last time out and was not disgraced, beaten only by about 2 lengths and the winner that day Ramonti had previously been beaten by Red Evie which won at the weekend to boost that piece of form. My main concern is that it likes to lead or track leaders but has Jamie Spencer on board who likes to drop horses back and come late with a run. Could possibly find some ew support at around 7-1. Suggested Bets: 20pts WIN - Authorized (2-1 Ladbrokes) 2.5pts ew - Asiatic Boy (7-1 Ladbrokes) 25 pts staked in total
Well done Phil.:clap:clap:clap:clap
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well I can't be accused of ducking or avoiding the big races. This was about as big as they come and I felt Authorized was the class animal it showed in the Derby. Only just got in and not seen the race yet, got it on Sky+ to watch in a while, happy it got up and by the analysis sounds like cheeky Frankie had just about blocked in Dylan Thomas till the 1f pole. Thought the 2-1 was too good to miss and so it proved. :) 20pts staked on Authorized 60 pts returned 5 pts staked on Asiatic Boy 0 pts returned 25 pts staked 60 pts returned +35 pts for the day. Will update totals later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread York 3.10, 1m4f, Group1, Good ground(gd-sft in places) The form horse in the race is peeping Fawn and it is the worthy odds on favourite. It's last 5 runs have been in Group 1 races with 3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd. It has improved dramatically over the season but has had a lot of racing and was idling in front last time out when beating Mandesha. I won't back at odds on and the only one I can see troubling it is Silkwood. I originally backed Silkwood to win the Oaks but it didn't run due to the ground and that has been the case all season. It finally got its good to firm ground at Royal Ascot in a Group 2 race and was highly impressive, quickening clear after travelling smoothly through the race and into contention. Peeping Fawn has beaten Light Shift and outclassed it but I honestly think Silkwood is a better horse than Light Shift despite yet showing it. Silkwood might not have the form of the favourite but it has the potential, the improvement required and has a clear chance if sweeping to the front in a battle with the fav. It has also had a nice rest and should be just right for this. Only worry is that the ground was described as a bit tacky on Tuesday so not 100% sure it would suit. Going to have a win bet and a reverse forecast as I think this is a 2 horse race. The other horses have either been put in their place already or fall short at this level or trip. Suggested Bets: 15 PTS WIN - Silkwood (9-4 Bet365 BOG) 2.5pts Reverse forecast (Silkwood and Peeping Fawn) 20 PTS Staked

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Awful run by Silkwood, finished bang last. Interesting to hear if there was anything wrong with the horse or ground or if it clearly wasn't good enough. Didn't seem to be it's true form today but take nothing away from Peeping Fawn, a real class animal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread -20 pts for the other day. :cryFC bet not included in strike rate as only wins/places/losers included but the 5pts stake is included in the totals. New Totals Total Staked 570 PTS New Bank 476 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 51 Winners/Places 22 :) Losers 29 :( Strike Rate 43% Profit/Loss + 276pts :) Yield 48% :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Saturday 25th August 2007 2:05 WINDFLOWER MARCH STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,034.00 1m6f GOOD A lot of the horses in this race have failed to deliver recently and there aren’t many that look progressive. Tungsten Strike won a Group 3 race over 2 mile in May but most of it’s races have been over 2m plus and although dropping in class I’m not convinced 1m6f will suit. Hard Top seems to need softer ground as it’s better recent runs have been on soft and good to soft but it has not won since August 2005 and doesn’t look one to have much faith in. Land N Stars ran ok last time out behind Papal Bull but was still beaten 8 lengths in that Group 3 race. It has been well beaten in Group races and handicaps and has not won since August 2006. Rayhani was dreadful last time out when 14th of 15 in a Group 2 over 2m. It won a class 3 race before that over 1m2f and was last of 8 before that over this trip so not the most consistent horse. Souvenance has looked outclassed over 2m when it was 8th of 9 only 4 days ago in a Group 2 and last on heavy ground in a listed contest. Also looks outclassed in this contest. Big Robert won its maiden over 7f and has been highly tried and failed at Group 3 level since but won a 1m2f class 3 race in July. That form way short of what is required today. Samuel is quite interesting and lightly raced but remains a maiden, although maybe not for much longer. Was close to Tranquil Tiger last time out in a listed race and would probably have won if the gaps hadn’t closed so has obvious chances today and going the right way. Secret Tune has started its racing career well with 2 wins and a 2nd and a good 3rd to Mahler over 2m. Disappointing last time out when 10th of 16 in a class 2 race and well beaten that day over 1m4f. Ivy Creek is the one I have left till last and was one I put in the notebook after backing it at Pontefract over 1m4f in a listed race. It travelled really well that day and went through the gears before finishing strongly up the Ponty hill to beat The Geezer and Peppertree Lane, the latter boosting form when winning the next time out. Won at this course before that when finishing strongly over 1m4f, again in a listed race. 5th of 12 last time out but ground may have been too firm and pace was not too strong. That form looks solid, as the horses in front were Papal Bull and Lucarno, which have impressed since. It also finished 6th of 9 in a Group 3 race over an insufficient trip against Dunelight and Manduro, the latter definitely boosting form. The top 2 in the betting are Ivy Creek and Samuel and that looks just right to me. Suggested Bets: 15 PTS WIN – Ivy Creek 5 PTS WIN - Samuel 20 PTS STAKED (Prices to be added tomorrow in additional post as only 1 bookies currently offering prices) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:10 TOTESPORT.COM CELEBRATION MILE (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £62,117.32 1m GOOD This race could revolve around race tactics and jockey expertise for Cesare and Dunelight who both look good enough to take this race. Cesare falls short of being Group 1 class but has won at this Group 2 level really well last time out under a great ride from Jamie Spencer who is on board again. It loves the 1m trip (5 wins and a 3rd from 9 races) and won on good ground last time out. Will definitely be involved at the finish if Spencer times his run correctly and gets the gaps required. Dunelight probably won’t need any gaps as it is likely to be kicking on up front as it did last time out when getting caught on the line over 7f by Tariq. Better suited to 1m and when 5th of 9 to Cesare in that Group 2 race had a genuine excuse for defeat after repeatedly getting bumped by Dettori. Course and distance winner here this season when made all and stayed on strongly and can not write it off just yet and I’d expect a big run today. Beaten 4 lengths by Cesare in May and has to improve dramatically to turn form around but can go close if not getting worn down again late on. I’m hoping Dane O Neill holds on to the horse as long as possible and lets it go about 1f-2f out to stand a chance. Dunelight’s all the way tactics may set the race up perfectly for Cesare but then Spencer has to make sure he doesn’t find trouble in running and hope the gaps appear before the line does. The form of the other horses falls short including Blue Ksar and Echelon so it will be the two mentioned that I am concentrating on. 15 PTS WIN – CESARE (11-8 Bet365 BOG) 5 PTS EW – DUNELIGHT (6-1 Stan James) 25 PTS STAKED

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Why did I know you were going to have a saver on Dunelight :rollin All the best for today :ok
Dunelight was talked up well by John Francombe this morning on Ch4, might not have the class of Cesare but decent ew bet at that price, will cover that stake if it places. :ok ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Odds now available for the 2 I didn't price up last night. Ivy Creek 5-2 VCBet but drifting as the fat oath Barry Dennis has made it his Bismarck. Will see if it drifts anymore before settling on a price. Samuel 10-3 William Hill, will take that now. Cesare 11-8 now most firms and Dunelight a backable 5-1 across the boards. Will miss both races as I'll be at the footy so best of luck to anyone backing them and watching on Ch4 this aft. Can't believe I'm choosing Bradford V Wrexham over Cesare V Dunelight. :lol
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Goodwood 3.20 Measured Tempo is back after the oaks but trainers comments make it sound like it will need the run so i'm swerving that at a short enough price. Samira Gold won a maiden and class 2 handicap and then ran 2nd to Yaqeen in a listed race. Didn't get 12f last time out and boiled over before the race, chance today though. Russian Rosie is quite consistent at this level and trip, likes the ground and seems a bit overpriced with most firms. Originally typed up a long preview but lost it when trying to post it so am well fcuked off now. Suggested Bets: 20 pts WIN - Samira Gold (4-1 Bet365 BOG) 5pts EW - Russian Rosie (18-1 Bluesquare)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...