Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[devil tish]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Goodwood 3.20 Measured Tempo is back after the oaks but trainers comments make it sound like it will need the run so i'm swerving that at a short enough price. Samira Gold won a maiden and class 2 handicap and then ran 2nd to Yaqeen in a listed race. Didn't get 12f last time out and boiled over before the race, chance today though. Russian Rosie is quite consistent at this level and trip, likes the ground and seems a bit overpriced with most firms. Originally typed up a long preview but lost it when trying to post it so am well fcuked off now. Suggested Bets: 20 pts WIN - Samira Gold (4-1 Bet365 BOG) 5pts EW - Russian Rosie (18-1 Bluesquare)

:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap well done m8

[Tom Hedonist]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Goodwood 3.20 Suggested Bets: 20 pts WIN - Samira Gold (4-1 Bet365 BOG) 5pts EW - Russian Rosie (18-1 Bluesquare)

1st @ 4/1 & 3rd @ 25/1 :clap:clap:clap Outstanding. :ok And thanks!!! :cow:cheers

[davidmphill]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice reward for some had work mowgli.:clap

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Goodwood 3.20 Measured Tempo is back after the oaks but trainers comments make it sound like it will need the run so i'm swerving that at a short enough price. Samira Gold won a maiden and class 2 handicap and then ran 2nd to Yaqeen in a listed race. Didn't get 12f last time out and boiled over before the race, chance today though. Russian Rosie is quite consistent at this level and trip, likes the ground and seems a bit overpriced with most firms. Originally typed up a long preview but lost it when trying to post it so am well fcuked off now. Suggested Bets: 20 pts WIN - Samira Gold (4-1 Bet365 BOG) 5pts EW - Russian Rosie (18-1 Bluesquare)

:clap:clap:clap:clap:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Nice one Phil.:ok I am at work logged on for 10mins before the off. Got 7/2 :lol:clap and 12/1:sad But still very happy.:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Thanks for all your comments. Much appreciated. Had a shocker of a day on Saturday and learnt from my mistakes. I really fancied Ivy Creek but didn't consider if the bet was any value at around 2-1/5-2 when so many looked like they had half a chance. Same for Cesare, really fancied it but 11-8 was short enough with other decent horses in the line up. I was too busy trying to find the winner that I forgot about any value and of course the value horse of the day Echelon stormed home to victory. I got what I deserved yesterday - fcuk all, because there was no value in short priced selections unless I was 100% confident in one horse at such a short price and having 2 selections in each of those races clearly shows I wasn't 100% confident. Lost 45 points for the thread yesterday and even more pounds than points. Needed to come back with a winner today and did just that. Listened to the race, Samira Gold went in to the stalls last and didn't get so worked up this time, Russian Rosie was racing prominently and once again showed it has the potential at this level but keeps falling short. I tipped it at 16-1, went off at 25-1, absolutely massive price on that one. Didn't fancy Measured Tempo when I read trainer comments and would have laid it all day long, finished 8th and will be much better for that run. 30 pts staked today and 117 pts returned, + 87pts for the day, just what I needed. If you ever stop learning from your mistakes in this game and think you're perfect it's time to stop betting. Kind of glad I lost yesterday because it made me really focus on value for today. Well done to anyone who followed me in on these 2 selections and apologies for anyone who took short prices with me yesterday, glad you kept the faith. :ok New Totals Total Staked 645 PTS New Bank 518 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 57 Winners/Places 24 :) Losers 33 :( Strike Rate 42% Profit/Loss + 318pts :) Yield 49% :)

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Excellent reply there mate. I for one, along with others appreciate the effort yourself and the others put in to find us winners. But it is OUR choice to decide if we want to back your choices. Yes i was on today, :clap:clap Thanks.:ok

[evad]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread nice result well done

[john_lovell]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread I appreciate the hard work too you put into this thread & obv like kevsul said it is up to us to back what you put up! well done on todays results! & yes i was on them =) *Claps* thank yhou

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well said Phil, and well done mate.

[-JT-]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Excellent tipping :notworthy Well done Mowgli :clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Spanish Bounty 3.35 Ripon Can't believe they named a horse after me (Fat Boy) but I won't be backing it at odds on. Looks to be the one to beat but the short price is due to the result in the Group 2 it ran in which wasn't the strongest race. Instead i'm going to have an ew bet on Spanish Bounty. It was hampered on its debut but won 2nd time out, virtually making all over 6f on good ground. It was 2nd of 4 dropping back to 5f after that. Went back up to 6f and up to class 2 level and won well enough under a penalty at Newmarket on good to firm. Ran over 7f last time out and did ok until a furlong out when it faded, suggesting 6f is the trip it needs. It is entered in a listed race, a group 1 race and two group 2 races, with three of these over 6f. Looked progressive and will benefit from this drop to 6f, too overpriced for me at 12-1/14-1 and well worthy of ew support. This horse likes to bowl along and so does Fat Boy so they won't have it their own way today, I hope Eddie Ahern just drops in behind Fat Boy and powers past it in the last furlong. Suggested bets: 5 pts EW - Spanish Bounty 14-1 Stan James

[Gingertipster]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread What with doing my own thread, studying and going racing I rarely get time to read the longer threads. I missed something here. Truly outstanding, excellant analysis and amazing tips. :ok :clap:clap I am not worthy of Mighty Mowgli. :notworthy I have never followed (backed) anyone elses tips before but will certainly take a look at yours Mowgli and bet with added confidence if I agree with your selection or put a saver on if I don't. If I believed in luck I would say Good Luck for the future but as I don't I won't. You don't need it anyway. :ok Like you Mowgli I prefur the better racing and seem to do better with class C and upwards. Also dislike sprint handicaps other than early closing. Do find graded and maiden sprint form usually works out though. What form books do you read? Do you get the Timeform Perspective? When you work out the form do you produce your own tissue price for each horse working to a 100% book? Or what? Maybe you do not want to give away your secrets. Anyway carry on the good work! Ginge

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Thanks for your comments Ginge. :ok I also like to get to the races as much as possible but it's usually the Yorkshire tracks like Ripon, York, Doncaster, Wetherby and my beloved Pontefract. :lol Haven't been that much this season due to having a 1yr old that needs training to be the next top jockey. (He's named Fallon by the way after the legend that is Kieren Fallon) I always like the fact that other people fancy a horse for the same reasons and I like your idea of value, which I totally forgot about on Saturday as I have stated. I don't produce my own tissue price or work to a book but I have an idea in my head what sort of price's i'm expecting. If there are 3 horses that I think all have an equal chance and are 2-1, 3-1, and 12-1 I'm taking the 12-1 horse every time. I also often split stakes like you do but don't use any dutching claculator, I bet stakes to levels of confidence if there are more than one selection. I only use Racing Post for my form study, I used to like getting a timeform card at the races but I don't think they are that informative or value for money. I prefer the online RP site to the paper copy because the paper version only goes back last 2 or 3 races for race comments. I also have a good memory and follow specific horses throughout the season (usually Group/Listed horses) that I would call genuine performers and if they don't win there has to be a genuine excuse why. (as with Samira Gold the other day, boiled over lto before the race) I follow the top races over middle distances and then have my own opinion on what will win or go close and then back it if I think i'm getting a value price. Get yourself to the next Punters Lounge race meeting at Uttoxeter and we'll discuss value over a beer and a bet. Details are on the general chat section. I try my best to provide quality reasoning because anyone following should know why they are backing one of my selections instead of betting blind. I hate the word 'tips' because they are 'selections' that i've studied rather than something i've got down the pub off a mate in the know. ;) Good Luck with your thread too, will be interesting if we select the same horses. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Salisbury 6.10 1m Listed race Good-Firm Had a look at the quotes on RP site and many of the trainers are concerned that this ground may be too firm. Interesting to see if any are withdrawn because of it. Many of the horses have winning form in the bag and most of it is at maiden level or class 4 level. Mccartney may have won well last time out but is unproven on ground this firm and is too short for me at around 11-10. I like the way Art Master won last time out but again this was on soft ground and todays conditions are very different. I also like Eddie Ahern so that jockey booking is a positive for me and the horse apparently impressed Jamie Spencer last time out when he rode it to victory. I also like the look of Yahrab which also won a class 4 race readily but more importantly won on good to firm so won't be inconvenienced by fast ground. McEvoy back on board for the 3rd time and clearly gets on well with the horse. Clive Brittain sounds quite confident over its chances and the horse looks progressive enough to get involved. Step up to 1m should be fine. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW - Art Master (10-1 Coral) 5pts EW - Yahrab (7-1 Ladbrokes) 20pts staked

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Lovelace 3.45 Goodwood This horse looks like a very good handicapper but may prove slightly better than that. It has plenty of potential and keeps improving with each run, last time out winning and defying a penalty. Has won on good to soft, firm and good to firm so handles this good to firm ground and more interestingly is usually ridden up front. Has Spencer on board, master with the hold up horses but he has ridden this to victory twice from the front already for Mark Johnstone, a trainer in decent enough form. All last 3 wins over this 7f and seems more value at the expected 6-1 than the now frustrating Dunelight at about 9-4 which I favour over 1m. Spencer made the following comments after its last victory: Quote:

You don't ride many who come to the two furlong-pole in a competitive handicap swinging off the bridle, and, whereas if anybody else had trained him, I would have waited longer, knowing that it was one of Mark's I had no doubt that he would keep galloping. - Jamie Spencer, jockey

Suggested Bet: 10 PTS WIN @ SP

[Gingertipster]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread We agree again Mowgli. We are not going to get anything like 6/1 though. On my tissue I make it 100/30 fav (23% chance). I think R.Post have got their forecasts wrong. I am taking the 9/2 on betfair.

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Lovelace 3.45 Goodwood This horse looks like a very good handicapper but may prove slightly better than that. It has plenty of potential and keeps improving with each run, last time out winning and defying a penalty. Has won on good to soft, firm and good to firm so handles this good to firm ground and more interestingly is usually ridden up front. Has Spencer on board, master with the hold up horses but he has ridden this to victory twice from the front already for Mark Johnstone, a trainer in decent enough form. All last 3 wins over this 7f and seems more value at the expected 6-1 than the now frustrating Dunelight at about 9-4 which I favour over 1m. Spencer made the following comments after its last victory: Quote:

You don't ride many who come to the two furlong-pole in a competitive handicap swinging off the bridle, and, whereas if anybody else had trained him, I would have waited longer, knowing that it was one of Mark's I had no doubt that he would keep galloping. - Jamie Spencer, jockey

Suggested Bet: 10 PTS WIN @ SP

:clap:clap:nana:nana:notworthy:notworthy Cracking Price.:ok Well done Phil.:clap:clap

[Woodie]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Super winner today mate and a cracking price top stuff, never managed to even look at the cards today but had a bet on this one before I went out this morning only cause of this thread ;)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Super winner today mate and a cracking price top stuff' date=' never managed to even look at the cards today but had a bet on this one before I went out this morning only cause of this thread ;)[/quote'] Cheers, nice when one with potential runs up to expectations, especially at 5-1. Expected more like 3-1 and went straight win. I'm in the middle of compiling a list of horses to follow, some next time out, some all season and i'll post it up on PL when it's finished. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Updated results and totals as follows: Spanish Bounty (LOST) -10pts Art Master (LOST) -10pts Yahrab (LOST) - 10pts Lovelace (WON at 5-1) 10pts staked, 60pts returned, +50pts New Totals Total Staked 685 PTS New Bank 538pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 61 Winners/Places 25 :) Losers 36 :( Strike Rate 41% Profit/Loss + 338pts :) Yield 49% :)

[evad]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread well done again mowgli77, a great winner

[devil tish]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread lovelace brilliant winner again m8. had a tenner on it, cos u are now officially BANG IN FORM, BOOKIES BEWARE! Time to give up the day job? you are getting a bit of a following with the lads at work now as well m8!!!! no pressure though haha! thanks again tish

[Gingertipster]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Time to give up the day job?

Before you or anyone else gives up their day job Mowgli make sure you know the Table Of Odds And Chances. It is vital knowledge for any pro punter. My web site explains this table. It is free and I am not trying to sell anything. Edit: Free site or not, you ask the owners permission, link denied - PR.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

lovelace brilliant winner again m8. had a tenner on it, cos u are now officially BANG IN FORM, BOOKIES BEWARE! Time to give up the day job? you are getting a bit of a following with the lads at work now as well m8!!!! no pressure though haha! thanks again tish

I'd give up the day job to do full time race previews rather than full time gambling. Glad you got on mate, hope you managed to get on some NAPS too, 3 winners in a row at 3-1, 5-1 and 7-2. Pressure is on now, just how I like it. ;) Got one lined up for tomorrow too in a miaden race, will post up tomorrows NAP in a short while. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread List of horses to follow now available in the Flat Season Notebook thread. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Hellvelyn 3.10 Haydock I hold this horse in very high regard and think it has an outstanding chance today at a massive price. I was at Pontefract when it won a class 2 race over 6f. It didn't beat anything special that night but the manner of its victory was very impressive, it travelled like a dream and clearly had the gears over 6f. It stepped up to Group 2 after that and won at Ascot, again over 6f and on good to firm ground, once again in an impressive manner. It was then 2nd in a Group 1 to Holy Roman Emperor and that form merits loads of respect. That horse would have boosted form and being a top horse if it hadn't been packed off to stud due to George Washington being a jaffa. It was then 4th of 6 in a Group 1 on soft ground that doesn't suit and got injured. Finished 8th on its comeback run after nearly 300 days off the track and was less than 4 lengths behind Sakhees Secret, obviously needing the run. Won last time out at Beverley in a listed race from a poor draw and over a 5f trip that I thought would be too short. That was again on good to firm ground and it was doing its best work at the end of the race, getting up to mug poor old Borderlescott on the line and suggesting a step back up to 6f would suit. I think this horse is top class and it will prove that today from a great draw in Stall 16. Sakhees Secret is the other side of the course in Stall 2 and is no value at around 5-4. It needs good to firm ground to bounce off and the 6f trip is ideal. I'll be disappointed if it isn't there in the mix at the finish. Ted Durcan rides again and has partnered it every race. Suggested Bet: 10pts EW - Hellvelyn (9-1 Tote and William Hill)

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Unlucky today Phil, but I see you've still been banging in those winners whilst I've been away. And your 16/1 Haydock winner hasn't gone unnoticed;) Good going, mate:clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Unlucky today Phil, but I see you've still been banging in those winners whilst I've been away. And your 16/1 Haydock winner hasn't gone unnoticed;) Good going, mate:clap

Cheers Russ, hope you come back with a few winners yourself mate, i'm sure you'll be banging those 20-1 handicap horses in soon enough. I'm hoping my hero fires one in today: George Washington 3.25 Longchamp If ever a horse should win a race on how the form of its last race has been boosted then it's George Washington. It was just a head behind Authorized when also getting caught out by the tactics of Notnowcato by racing on the wrong side. Authorized has gone on to win since, beating Notnowcato and Dylan Thomas, of which the latter won in fine style yesterday to make history. That last run of George's was over 1m2f and this is a better horse over 1m as it's great victories in the 2000 Guineas and QE2 races showed. It likes the ground, likes the trip and if you ever needed a jockey to get a tune out of a horse it would be Kieren Fallon. The horse was always going to need a few runs to get it back to full fitness as it wasn't kept in training but now it has flopped at stud it can find the winners enclosure once again and continue the fine run of form for O' Briens horses. Suggested Bets: 20 PTS WIN - George Washington (2-1 Ladbrokes) Most other bookies going 7-4.

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread GL today Phil. But remember, I don't want you shouting 'Go Fallon, go Fallon'.....the little 'un will start to develop a complex:lol

[devil tish]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread i'm on at 15/8 with s.o. you are on fire mate, fingers crossed:hope:hope:hope:hope