Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Two 3rds today. :wall 50 PTS Staked, 22 PTS Returned, -28pts for the day. :cry New Totals Total Staked 420 PTS New Bank 341 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 40 Winners/Places 17 Losers 20 Strike Rate 43% Profit/Loss + 141pts Yield 34%

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Peeping Fawn 3.20 Goodwood From the last ten runnings this race has been won 7 times by a 3 year old. Stoute and Fallon have teamed up to win it 3 times but he can't ride here and Stoute does not have a runner in the race. The form of peeping Fawn is rock solid with a record of 1-1-2-3 in 4 group 1 races, including behind and beating Light Shift and 3rd to Finsceal Beo. it has run from 1m to 1m4f in Group 1 races and has clearly improved past Light Shift, winning convincingly by 3 1/2 lengths the last time they met. Has placed form on good to firm ground, won last time out under Jonny Murtagh and O'Brien has hos horses in fine form. Mandesha looks to be the main danger but has no form on good to firm and all it's wins have been away from this country. I really believe Peeping Fawn is the real deal and will look even better when bouncing off fast ground. Suggested Bet: 20 PTS Win - Peeping Fawn (5-2 Betfred)

[john_lovell]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Peeping Fawn 3.20 Goodwood From the last ten runnings this race has been won 7 times by a 3 year old. Stoute and Fallon have teamed up to win it 3 times but he can't ride here and Stoute does not have a runner in the race. The form of peeping Fawn is rock solid with a record of 1-1-2-3 in 4 group 1 races, including behind and beating Light Shift and 3rd to Finsceal Beo. it has run from 1m to 1m4f in Group 1 races and has clearly improved past Light Shift, winning convincingly by 3 1/2 lengths the last time they met. Has placed form on good to firm ground, won last time out under Jonny Murtagh and O'Brien has hos horses in fine form. Mandesha looks to be the main danger but has no form on good to firm and all it's wins have been away from this country. I really believe Peeping Fawn is the real deal and will look even better when bouncing off fast ground. Suggested Bet: 20 PTS Win - Peeping Fawn (5-2 Betfred)

:notworthy Great Call Mowgli :clap :nana :ok :cheers :beer

[aelara]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :clap:clapWell done mate:clap:clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Cheers fella, hope you got on. That is a very good horse, that Mandesha was no mug either. Nice 50pts profit for the thread. :)

[artbrut]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread good effort mowgli, definitely convinced me to back it. :cheers

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice winner Phil, good price too!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Nice winner Phil' date=' good price too![/quote'] Cheers, only 2 bookies offering 5-2 when I put the selection up, good old Betfred the main one. 11-4 would have been better but I missed that early price. I really didn't fancy Nannina today and it was last, seems a strange horse to catch right. Murtagh gave mine a good ride but I honestly think the horse is that good that any one from Fallon, Dettori, Murtagh, Kinane, Moore could ride it to victory.

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Great winner, Phil, and good price to boot. Won very well, super pick mate:clap:clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread New Totals Total Staked 440 PTS New Bank 391 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 41 Winners/Places 18 Losers 23 Strike Rate 44% Profit/Loss + 191pts Yield 49% Just noticed the winners/places and losers was incorrect but didn't affect strike rate as it was only losers incorrect. I had put 5 selections other day, 2 placed but forgot to add the 3 unplaced. All up to date now and yield back up a bit. :ok Might have a selection for tomorrow depending on price.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Mont Etoile 3.50 Newbury I have looked long and hard into this race and can't get past the fact that Mont Etoile should win this quite comfortably. The only concern is where the pace will come from in the race and which horse will front run as most of these liked to be dropped in behind and produced for a late effort. Lemonette has failed to win class 4 handicaps and looks way outclassed in listed company. Wassfa was last in the same race that Mont Etoile finished 5th in and also looks up against it. Queens Best looks like it needs softer ground and i'm not sure about the trip as it was hanging at the end of it's races over 10f (Lingfield)and 11f (Warwick) previously. Marzelline would be capable of winning this listed race if Mont Etoile underperforms and it's best form was in a Group 2 on good to firm behind Silkwood but it was about 6 lengths off the winner that day. Dropped back to 1m2f last time out, again on good to firm and was 6th of 9 so seems better suited by this trip. Mirin won here over course and distance last time out and needs to improve to get involved. 7th of 9 on it's only run on good to firm but has improvement and might go close. Mont Etoile won the Ribblesdale last year on fast ground and then was 4th of 6 to Alexandrova by about 5 lengths. 8th of 11 in the St Leger but 1m6f may be too far. Ran over 1m at Pontefract against an excellent miler in Expensive and it's class saw it get close to be only held off by a short head, running on at the end of the race. 5th last time out behind Turbo Linn on good ground and that horse went on to win again in good style. Trick Or Treat that was 7th in that race went on to get 3rd place in a Group 3 the other day at Goodwood. Form is pretty solid and this looks like a group horse running in a listed race, while Marzelline is stepping up to listed class and might grab 2nd. Back on fast ground over it's favoured trip of 1m4f I can't see this getting beat if they go a decent pace and I could even see it having to make the running. Could be the Hills twins over the line in 1st and 2nd but I'm confident it will be Michael and Mont Etoile going to the winners enclosure. Suggested Bet 20 PTS WIN - Mont Etoile (11-8 BET365 BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Mont Etoile 3.50 Newbury The only concern is where the pace will come from in the race and which horse will front run as most of these liked to be dropped in behind and produced for a late effort. Back on fast ground over it's favoured trip of 1m4f I can't see this getting beat if they go a decent pace and I could even see it having to make the running. Could be the Hills twins over the line in 1st and 2nd but I'm confident it will be Michael and Mont Etoile going to the winners enclosure.

Only listened to race commentary, didn't see the race but Mont Etoile led early and set the pace, seemed to set the race up perfectly for Queens Best which kicked clear and won well. Can't blame the jockey really as there was always that concern that they might go off at a crawl and there wasn't a genuine front runner in the race. Got picked off by Ryan Moore with about 1f to go and Wassfa was 2nd, Mont Etoile 3rd. The 2nd was an unfancied 33-1 so I don't think the form is that strong but Queens Best might go on from here. -20 pts for the day :cry

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Need to update current stats including Mont Etoile loss but one for tomorrow that I fancy: Promising Lead 4.00 Salisbury Won it's maiden over 7f in good style against some respected horses and then thrown in at the deep end in a listed race over 1m on good at York. Was 2nd that day as an odds on fav, only getting beaten on the line after rallying past the 3rd placed horse. Stepped up to 10f last time out on soft and only managed 4th of 6 but was then reported to have returned lame so we can excuse that poor run if that is the case. Well fancied that day too and went off as Evens fav so highly regarded by those in the know and comes from the in form Stoute stable with the in form Ryan Moore taking the ride. Should have enough improvement in it to beat Barshiba and Shorthand and has a nice pedigree (Danehill was the sire). Expected SP of about 4-1 which won't last long if it opens up at that price. Suggested Bet: 15 PTS WIN - Early Price (Bet 365 BOG)

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :hope For today mate.:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

:hope For today mate.:ok

Cheers mate. Back in the winners enclosure today. Opened at 4-1, still available at 7-2 at lunch, got backed right down to 5-2 but the Bet365 BOG came into play today. Had to put them up as choice of bookies as I posted late last night. Settled in about 3rd place, kicked on about 2f from home and went clear by 2 1/2 lengths. Well worth keeping an eye on. Today: 15 pts staked, 75 pts returned. New Totals Total Staked 475 PTS New Bank 431 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 43 Winners/Places 19 Losers 24 Strike Rate 44% Profit/Loss + 231pts Yield 49% These totals include the loss on Mont Etoile and the profit today on Promising Lead and are now up to date. Can't really complain at a 231 pt profit and 49% yield as most stakes have been about 10pts average. Roll on the next load of group races. :ok

[Woodie]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Might sound dumb but don't often bet with bet365 but what is (bog) meaning mate?

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Might sound dumb but don't often bet with bet365 but what is (bog) meaning mate?

Best Odds Guaranteed mate. If your horse drifts and you've taken a short price you still get the best odds and vice versa if it shortens. As far as I know they are still doing it for every race.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Might sound dumb but don't often bet with bet365 but what is (bog) meaning mate?

Best Odds Guaranteed, as far as I know they are still doing it.

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well done again Phil, nice pick!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2 for tomorrow, both ew and both in same race: Dunelight and Caldra, 4.15 Salisbury Dunelight ran a fine race last time out in a Group 2 over 7f when it kicked on and looked the likely winner but got swamped late on by Tariq and Asset. That is solid form as Tariq is a class horse over 7f, having won its last 3 races over that trip at listed level, group 3 and group 2. Dunelight is better suited over 1m and runs over that trip today. Was very unlucky at Ascot when it got repeatedly bumped and lost all momentum but won a listed race at Goodwood before that beating Army of Angels. Has only run once on good to soft but that was over 9f and it was last. Also ran over 9f when beaten by Manduro but only faded final furlong, once again highlighting the need for a 1m trip. Likely to lead or track leaders and might not be caught if allowed to kick on early and has the stamina over 1m to stay the trip. Caldra has some great form including a win and place at group 3 level and a win at listed level. Unbeaten when running over 1m (twice) and has won on soft, good to soft and good ground so very versatile performer and would not be inconvenienced by more rain. Certainly has the class to take this, has an ideal trip and has conditions to suit. The only doubt regarding it has to be fitness because it has not run for 313 days but it is a course and distance winner and should not have an expected SP of around 20-1 when it is up against a lot of other horses stepping up from handicaps or others that have promised a lot and delivered little such as Olympian Oddyssey. Both look like value each way bets and it will be interesting to see what prices they open up at. They are 4th and 3rd in the topspeed ratings too. Suggested Bets: 5pts ew - Dunelight (Bet365 BOG early price) 5 pts ew - Caldra (Bet365 BOG early price) If anyone is on line in the morning or around lunch can they please post best odds available on odds checker and also with bet365 at that time as I have no internet access at work but can access bet365 from my mobile and can only update when I get in. Cheers. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Well done again Phil' date=' nice pick![/quote'] Cheers Graham, sounded like it won well from commentary. :)

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice win mate backed it on way to work with willhill at 7/2 Then called the racing commentary line and it sounded as thought it won very easily. Well done Phil .:clap:clap and cheers :okmate.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Nice win mate backed it on way to work with willhill at 7/2 Then called the racing commentary line and it sounded as thought it won very easily. Well done Phil .:clap:clap and cheers :okmate.

Glad you got on mate. :ok Was studying that form late last night as you could see from the 23.36 post. Needed plenty of :zzzand my eyes were stinging :crybut ended up :nanaand :dudeas Ryan Moore went past the winning post. ;)

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Well done Phil on yesterdays winner, still well in profit mate:clap:clap Unlucky today, lots of non runners:(

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 1 non runner yesterday and 1 unplaced. Posted up in what was originally a 12 horse Group 3 race paying 3 places. Unhappy at finding 5 non runners and only paying first 2. Caldra ran a good race back after that lay off and will be back in the winners enclosure sooner rather than later, definitely one to keep an eye on. Need to update my totals but off out on the razz tonight in Leeds so it might be tomorrow afternoon. I might be northern but I can't stand lager, cider or bitter so i'll stick to the puffs drinks: :lol :eek :lol

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Newbury 3.20 There are only 3 horses I see winning this race and those are the 3 at the head of the betting but I'll only be backing 2 of them. I'm interested in Silver Touch as it ran well last time out over 6 1/2f in a Gp1 race but it's all round form looks short of being good enough. It has failed to perform on a few occasions without a genuine excuse apart from it was not good enough on the day but will still be close today, maybe without winning. Red Evie is one I am interested in but have obvious concerns due to it's last 2 runs. It was last at Newmarket in a muddling race and really needs to come from off a quick pace to be seen at its best so I can forgive it that run. I'm more concerned by the Ascot run when it faded away tamely and didn't look its usual self. It's a Group 1 horse in a Group 2 race today but the Gp1 form has been over 1m. Drops back to 7f and it has won convincingly over that trip but not since August 06. It hasn't just become a poor horse all of a sudden and I can't write it off just yet. It was getting reeled in when it beat Ramonti (on good to soft) but held on gamely and came from off a quick pace that day. It has a good turn of foot and if Spencer has it placed for a run it has every chance today. 11-2 seems a big price for a proven performer like this despite its recent poor efforts. Will Spencer be the hero or the zero today? I agree with Writeups for the other selection Wake Up Maggie. It has won 2 Gp3 races really easily looking different class to the rest of the field but also looking like it could perform at a higher level. Comments from its races look similar to Red Evies with the horse travelling well and quickening away to win. Does not have proven form past Gp3 level but is progressing the right way this season, loves the 7f trip and has won on good and good to soft so any rain won't matter. I can see Red Evie and Wake Up Maggie both battling in the last half furlong as long as their jockeys have them angled out for a run. Silver Touch may have beaten Wake Up Maggie previously but the latter has clearly improved this season and may reverse form today. Suggested Bets: 10pts Win - Red Evie 10pts Win - Wake Up Maggie (I will post prices up about 20 mins before the race as they are both possible drifters and are currently 11-2 Red Evie and 9-2 Wake Up Maggie)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread I'll take the prices as above as they are still available and hope they don't drift out significantly to better prices. 11-2 and 9-2 respectively. Kicking myself for not backing Papal Bull, was worried about its attitude and quirkiness but won really well and was a case of Gp1 horse in Gp3 race. That 6-4 looks good after the race. :wall

[john_lovell]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Ooooo - How close was that? 8-) Well done mate!

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Get in:nana Played up my winnings on Comptons Eleven from my specialist thread, with quite a chunk on that little bitch, Red Evie;) Cheers Phil:clap:clap:clap....and I hope you did the double too:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Cheers :cheers What a race and what a finish. I thought Wake Up Maggie had the race in the bag when it came wide with a run. It picked up momentum and then in a split second it ran flat and then picked up again. I thought Spencer had mis timed the run by a fraction of a second but as I have said many times he is a master with hold up horses and he had the pace needed today to pick them off and get up on the line. Fantastic jockey at times, frustrating as fcuk at others but credit where it's due. I should have laid Silver Touch too, really thought it had a chance but would not win. The little bitch comes good for me at last. :lol 20 pts staked, 65 pts returned, +45pts profit for today. :ok Will update totals later, fcuking love these group races. :D