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RussP

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Everything posted by RussP

  1. 3.05 Ascot Mahsoob lines up as a very warm order after coming from near last to first in a big handicap at York, producing a devastating late turn of foot. Is put up 9lb for that run and is surely on its way into Group company. However, the long straight certainly suited as it took an absolute age to pick up and I'm not sure if the shorter straight & tighter, albeit quite stiff track will suit. I'm opposing the jolly on the basis of the track. Provenance, in my opinion, should be dismissed on the basis on its trainers dismal week so far. There definitely appears to be something amiss
  2. On one of my worst ever runs and trying to crack the 2 big handicaps at Ascot. I must be stupid! 3.05 Ascot Mahsoob lines up as a very warm order after coming from near last to first in a big handicap at York, producing a devastating late turn of foot. Is put up 9lb for that run and is surely on its way into Group company. However, the long straight certainly suited as it took an absolute age to pick up and I'm not sure if the shorter straight & tighter, albeit quite stiff track will suit. I'm opposing the jolly on the basis of the track. Provenance, in my opinion, should be dismisse
  3. 8.05 Newmarket Class 3 7f handicap for the first day's usage of the July course, with 14 currently left in. Mr Win is another raised for not winning, whilst Super Kid is a danger as an exposed 3yo but mark doesn't look particularly lenient. Buckstay has some great form lately but again raised 1lb and not totally convinced with the change of jockey. I'm taking them on with: Pastoral Player (13/2 Bet365) - 3 years ago, this one would have hosed up here but hasn't won for ages. Now an 8yo but is running as well as ever. Stable in form, useful 7lb claimer on top and off a mark it has defied
  4. Need to turn this rubbish form around soon. 8.05 Newmarket Class 3 7f handicap for the first day's usage of the July course, with 14 currently left in. Mr Win is another raised for not winning, whilst Super Kid is a danger as an exposed 3yo but mark doesn't look particularly lenient. Buckstay has some great form lately but again raised 1lb and not totally convinced with the change of jockey. I'm taking them on with: Pastoral Player (13/2 Bet365) - 3 years ago, this one would have hosed up here but hasn't won for ages. Now an 8yo but is running as well as ever. Stable in form, useful 7lb
  5. In absolutely shocking form at the minute but one more bet today. 8.45 Beverley 11 left in for a Class 6 handicap over 10f. Tin Pin Alley won lto and beat Duke Of Yorkshire that day. They reoppose here and they are the ones the punters currently want to be on. However, I'm looking elsewhere as the former has been raised 6lb and not as likely to grab an easy lead here. Duke Of Yorkshire ran well that day but over 4L, it doesn't look the best handicapped in the race. At 2's and 4's respectively, they both look skinny to me. I'm looking at a bigger priced one to oppose with. Mister Uno (1
  6. 5.00 Ascot The only handicap on the card, a Class 2 marathon over 2m4f with 20 runners. Whilst I fancy one of the market leaders, I'm still against the front 5, namely Ray Ward, Clondaw Warrior, Fun Mac, Lycidas and Digeanta, Ray Ward has never won a handicap, Clondaw Warrior may need softer ground and there are question marks over it getting the trip whilst Fun Mac could be anything after a facile win lto & is raised a stone. Lycidas won well lto but again there are question marks over trip & ground and Digeanta has a chance off bottom weight but doesn't look that well handicapped
  7. 3.30 Thirsk Class 4, 6f handicap with the 14 runners. An open race, the bookies going 6/1 the field and I'm looking to take on the market leaders. Hugie Boy is only a 3yo and is raised 8lb for a neck win lto and that in 2 grades lower than this. It will need to be a seriously progressive type to defy those negatives, whilst Kommander Kirkup and Native Falls have both been raised 3lb following a defeat lto. Signoret is another 3yo and did win lto but that was a maiden and this race is tougher. Straits Of Malacca (14/1 Betfair Sportsbook) - I can understand why people are looking to oppose t
  8. 2 bets for tomorrow. 3.30 Thirsk Class 4, 6f handicap with the 14 runners. An open race, the bookies going 6/1 the field and I'm looking to take on the market leaders. Hugie Boy is only a 3yo and is raised 8lb for a neck win lto and that in 2 grades lower than this. It will need to be a seriously progressive type to defy those negatives, whilst Kommander Kirkup and Native Falls have both been raised 3lb following a defeat lto. Signoret is another 3yo and did win lto but that was a maiden and this race is tougher. Straits Of Malacca (14/1 Betfair Sportsbook) - I can understand why people a
  9. 25 bets in and we're in profit after another decent week. However, I'm pretty frustrated as I've had an awful weekend with 5 losers & just 1 in the money. The stats, therefore, look much worse than they could have. That said, it's a game of ups & downs so I've probably been lucky up until then. So far, I've had 5 winners; Russian Heroine @ 15/2, Gratzie @ 8/1, Lady Gibraltar @ 10/1, Warfare @ 10/1 and Donny Rover @ 10/1. P&L is as follows: 2015 Staked = 250.00pts Returned = 372.85pts Profit = +122.85pts Yield = +49.1% Bets = 25 Wins = 5 (20.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (
  10. Cheers Phil, much appreciated. Firstly, looking for a weak favourite is my starting point. If I can't get the fav beat, I leave the race alone. Beyond that, I'm looking for the usual stuff but start with handicap mark and class. Then I delve into recent form & look for excuses for poor(ish) form; I say poorish because, at the prices, it's more than likely there's been some poor recent form. I consider things like trip, trainer/jockey form, ground and draw. Another angle is also the shape of the race (ie. pace & whether front runners will be suited) and type of course (ie. form on
  11. Hi mate, Couple of minor things for me: -in the forums, can you separate visually the stickys from standard threads? Particularly in the horse racing forum, you have to scroll down quite a bit to get beyond the stickys and it's just easier on the eye to separate them like last time. -In the individual forums, you can go to the last post of a particular thread. But you can't do that from the front forum page like you used to be able to. Not a big issue as you can just click in the forum first but would be helpful if easy to do. Looks good :ok
  12. Echo the sentiments of others. The whole SP & value argument does not sit comfortably with me at all. Ultimately, I don't like backing below 5/1 as that's not an EW price (the type of bet I prefer) but, other than that, I'm just looking for winners. End of. Maybe it's a rather naive attitude but it works for me.
  13. 4.15 Doncaster Class 3 6f handicap with 11 runners. There are 4 apparent stand out contenders but I think there are holes to be picked in each of them. Eccleston could easily trot up here after an impressive win at Haydock lto but up 3lb and I suspect that, whilst trip is the same, it may struggle to get home on this much softer ground whilst 4th place that day, Canyari, would prefer it a bit quicker. Mississippi won narrowly lto, is raised 3lb and rates a danger but that race panned out well and this looks a bit tougher. Exchequer is well fancied, especially with trainer / jockey combo bu
  14. One more for today. 4.15 Doncaster Class 3 6f handicap with 11 runners. There are 4 apparent stand out contenders but I think there are holes to be picked in each of them. Eccleston could easily trot up here after an impressive win at Haydock lto but up 3lb and I suspect that, whilst trip is the same, it may struggle to get home on this much softer ground whilst 4th place that day, Canyari, would prefer it a bit quicker. Mississippi won narrowly lto, is raised 3lb and rates a danger but that race panned out well and this looks a bit tougher. Exchequer is well fancied, especially with trai
  15. Price wasn't available so actually just caught the 7's at BetVictor. Sorry guys.
  16. 4.50 Doncaster There's now a non runner leaving us with 11 to sort through for this Class 4, 1m handicap. First thing to look for is a weak favourite and I think we've got one here in top weight Derulo. As with the 2nd fav Thornaby Nash, both animals have been raised in mark without winning lto. That's enough for me to bypass. Teds Brother (8/1 William Hill) - I backed this one last week when it was taken out at Newcastle but most things still stand. Is steadily coming down the weights and is now racing off 66, a mark lower than his last 3 wins. Goes well at this track with 2 wins from 6
  17. Poor day yesterday but just Mon Brav managing a place. I'll provide an update after the racing today. 4.50 Doncaster There's now a non runner leaving us with 11 to sort through for this Class 4, 1m handicap. First thing to look for is a weak favourite and I think we've got one here in top weight Derulo. As with the 2nd fav Thornaby Nash, both animals have been raised in mark without winning lto. That's enough for me to bypass. Teds Brother (8/1 William Hill) - I backed this one last week when it was taken out at Newcastle but most things still stand. Is steadily coming down the weights
  18. Re: The PL Genuine Information (Tips) Thread A tad harsh, maybe? It's actually Jonathan Wild :ok
  19. Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 13th June 2 more. 2.55 Musselburgh The big consolation sprint, with 16 lining up for a Class 3 5f handicap. In fairness, you need a degree of luck in running in these types of races but I do feel that the race isn't actually that strong. We have a well supported favourite in Distant Past and I can understand why but I'm against it. Won lto in an apprentice race and mark remains unchanged which is largely the reason for the short price. That said, this is tougher and a step up in class. 3 wins from 4 is impressive but the one other was its only try in the cla
  20. Re: RussP's Flat Handicappers (+163.60pts, 86.1% yield) 2 more. 2.55 Musselburgh The big consolation sprint, with 16 lining up for a Class 3 5f handicap. In fairness, you need a degree of luck in running in these types of races but I do feel that the race isn't actually that strong. We have a well supported favourite in Distant Past and I can understand why but I'm against it. Won lto in an apprentice race and mark remains unchanged which is largely the reason for the short price. That said, this is tougher and a step up in class. 3 wins from 4 is impressive but the one other was its
  21. Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 13th June 5.30 York Class 4 handicap over the straight 6f with a rather large cavalry of 20 lining up. Slingsby and Harwoods Volante are the 2 market leaders and, as usual, I'm in opposition. The former couldn't have been more impressive but a 13lb hike in mark and raised 2 grades with ground concerns. No thank you. The latter could go well but is raised in mark without winning and that's a type I often ignore. However, my selection is still well fancied. Mon Brav (12/1 Betfair Sportsbook) - Has been backed into 8's or 9's elsewhere and I can understand why. Fini
  22. Re: RussP's Flat Handicappers (+163.60pts, 86.1% yield) 5.30 York Class 4 handicap over the straight 6f with a rather large cavalry of 20 lining up. Slingsby and Harwoods Volante are the 2 market leaders and, as usual, I'm in opposition. The former couldn't have been more impressive but a 13lb hike in mark and raised 2 grades with ground concerns. No thank you. The latter could go well but is raised in mark without winning and that's a type I often ignore. However, my selection is still well fancied. Mon Brav (12/1 Betfair Sportsbook) - Has been backed into 8's or 9's elsewhere and I
  23. Re: Maidens/Bumpers (2015 Running Total: +65.13Pts) Good going mate, keep it up :ok
  24. Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 13th June 4.20 York Currently, we have 16 in this Class 4 handicap over a trip of 9f. We appear to have a well supported favourite and then a stablemate as clear 2nd fav. Following that, it is pretty much anybody's. However, I'm opposing the 2 at the top of the market. Top weight and fav is First Sitting after recent form figures of 2-1. However, first race was in a maiden and lto, it won but is now 6lb higher and uncertain regarding ground. Too inexperienced to warrant the 7/2 on offer. Stablemate has good recent form too and has been raised just 3lb for a win 2
  25. Re: RussP's Flat Handicappers A nice winner today, winning at 10/1. Onto tomorrow, and here's the first bet. 4.20 York Currently, we have 16 in this Class 4 handicap over a trip of 9f. We appear to have a well supported favourite and then a stablemate as clear 2nd fav. Following that, it is pretty much anybody's. However, I'm opposing the 2 at the top of the market. Top weight and fav is First Sitting after recent form figures of 2-1. However, first race was in a maiden and lto, it won but is now 6lb higher and uncertain regarding ground. Too inexperienced to warrant the 7/2 on of
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