Wimbledon 2024

[four-leaf]

[timovk]

Harris @2.15 NO
Pegula -1.5 sets @1.76 NO
Jabeur - 1.5 sets @1.66 YES 
HADDAD-MAIA (Void) + Svitolina @1.58 YES 

Wozniacki @2.30 YES 
Murray/Murray @2.10 NO

GL You all. 

Edited July 5 by timovk
3-3

[CzechPunter]

Yulia Putintseva to beat Katerina Siniakova at 2.20 with Bet365

I've already backed Putintseva on grass a couple of times this season, and I think that she's been playing a bit better than Siniakova so far, so I'd have this as 50/50 at least.

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Daria Snigur 2-0 at 1.91 with Bet365

Snigur's serve is really poor, Ostapenko should really snack on it with her return winners. Her win against Dodin looks good on paper, but Dodin was there only for the paycheck. 

[neilovan]

Not much to get excited about (betting wise) today.

Because of the rain some players are playing back-to-back (Kokkinakis for example, after coming back against Auger Aliasimme in 5 sets). It can't help him. I'll be watching this match and if it goes into a 4th or 5 I'll consider betting against him.

Probably the best womans match of the day is Siniakova v Putintseva. Two in form players, that will be closely matched.  Siniakova has been playing great. I think she just wins. She seems to be playing better after her (doubles) split from Krecjikova.

I think Samsonova is way to low against Avanesyan. Avanesyan at 3-1 on Bet365 and is worth a bet. Samsonova has won 7 of 9 matches on grass this season, but you would expect her to win 6 of them (https://www.flashscore.co.za/player/samsonova-liudmila/hIA4C9YT/). So her results are inflated. Avanesyan is such a solid smart player, and quite underrated.

In the men's side I think Tsitsipas will have his work cut out to beat Ruusuvouri who has been playing pretty well. Much harder (7% more difficult) for an underdog to win over 5 sets, but I think there could be a shock here. 

Draper to beat Norrie, Tabilo to beat Cobolli, Badosa to beat Frhvirtova, Kalinskaya to beat Bouzkova in a 4 legged parlay.

Edited July 4 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Madison Keys to beat Marta Kostyuk 2-0 at 1.83 with Bet365

Keys was really good against Yafan Wang, while Kostyuk was quite crap in that long and tiring match against Saville, which was well below average in terms of quality from both players, lots of double faults, simple misses, you name it. Took 3 hours as well, and I don't believe that Kostyuk will recover well enough to be competitive in this one.

Barbora Krejcikova (-3.5) to beat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro at 1.83 with Bet365

This should be the end of the road for Jessice Bouzas Maneiro. Krejcikova has faced some serious adversity so far, but she has overcome the challenges and played herself into a very solid-looking form. Her game is a much more natural fit for grass than JBM's game, and she might have a shot at covering this line even if the match goes to three sets.

[888888]

Opinions on Fognini - Bautista Augut ?

Fognini at 2.80 ; he been playing very well i thought it would be more 50/50 odds ; he is old but so is Bautista ; or may be Fognini to win at least 2 sets

[CzechPunter]

Two veterans, eh? I'd certainly rather be on Fognini, but I haven't seen much Bautista recently.

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, 888888 said:

Opinions on Fognini - Bautista Augut ?

Fognini at 2.80 ; he been playing very well i thought it would be more 50/50 odds ; he is old but so is Bautista ; or may be Fognini to win at least 2 sets

Looking at the weather it is unlikely that this match even gets on court today. 100% precipitation. This brings a whole lot of weirdness into it. The ball and courts get heavy in the conditions, Players that are physically big, still maintain the ability to hit through their opponents. The weather also makes these stop start matches. Some players hate it, others thrive in the unkown chaos of on/off the court the whole day. 

But both these players are quite similar. For me Fognini has more explosiveness, and Bautista Agut probably better physicallity. But in a stop start match the physicallity is kind of nullified as there is time for rest and recovery in the rain breaks. I think the win over Ruud will give Fognini some confidence, and that he has the slight edge. He also has a 9 3 record against Agut.

 

Edited July 5 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Wet day ahead. It certainly helps those who are playing on a covered arena. They can plan their day and stay in their routine. Tough for everyone else.

Shnaider v Navarro.

Both had very easy matches previously. Shnaider wiping Stephens out and Navarro beating Osaka. Stephens has had no real form, so not a surprise there. The Navarro Osaka match also a weird one. Hard to play a 6-4 set in 28 minutes with 4 change overs. A 4 shot rally was an outlier.

Shnaider has beaten Navarro the last 2 times they have played. Both in 3 sets, both winning 1st and 3rd, one on clay and other on grass. Shnaider being left handed (like last years champion Vondrousova) definitely throws the opponent a curve. It is an extra thing the right hander has to adjust to, while left handers get to play right handers 90% of the time. What has impressed me with Shnaider is her mental toughness. She is also able to hit a very accurate, hard forehand, which is excellent. Probably close to Rybakina (who has a briliant pure strike) in quality. 

Slight edge to Shnaider here.

 

Paolini v Andreescu

For me the bookmakers have this match wrong. Paolini should be around 1.45 and Andreescu around 2.7. In a physical battle Paolini is dominant. Better athlete and quick around the court with very good footwork. Nice for both of them that they start on court 1 under roof.  Paolini played ANdreescu at the French and beat her 6-1 3-6  6-0, essentially destroying her serve in sets 1 and 3. But this should be closer, beacuse ANdreescu has shown some good form on grass.

Paolini to win.

Vekic & Keys both to win 2:0. Yastremska will battle with the Vekic serve, and an out of sorts Kostyk should be easily beaten by Keys.

 

As a complete curve (similar to Ruusuvouri over Tsitsipas), I think Tiafoe is going to have a very close match with Alcaraz. Alcaraz is so brilliant but can also go through weird stages in a match. For me he is a rough diamond, and frighteningly for the other men's players will get 20% better in the next few years. He is a little up an down, when compared to the levels of Djokovic/ Federer/Nadal (at their very best). When the big 3 were playing at their best, the level stayed remarkably high, and very constant. Nadal at the French with the endless bombardment of heavy topspin. Djokovic in beast mode not missing a ball for 40 minutes. Alcaraz shows patches of incredible brilliance, but can't match this consistency  ... yet.

Since Tiafoe split with Wayne Ferreira his performances have fallen off a cliff. But he can really play. Mentally he is in a weird space. I just think he needed a confidence boost, which the comeback against Arnaldi and the demolition of Coric have given him. I think he can definitely win a set here. In his last 10 matches he has played a 1st set tie break 6 times, and has had 12+ games in a  1st set 9 times.

For me 1st set over 10.5 games is worth a bet at 3.5 (bet365)

Edited July 5 by neilovan

[timovk]

Fognini @2.92 NO
Medvedev @1.51 YES 
Dimitrov - Monfils over 3.5 sets @1.57 NO
Schnaider @2.32 NO
Vekic + Keys @1.80 YES
Raducanu @1.71 YES
Parlay:
Bopanna/Ebden + Ram/Salisbury + Skupski/Venus @2.34 NO

GL You all. 

Edited July 7 by timovk
3-4

[amity]

Boylesports offer 6/4 special on Keys and Gauff both to win 2-0, looks good to me

[neilovan]

Looking at the Humbert v Nakashima match.

The 5 set win odd for Humbert is 5.00  (odds bet365)

The 5 set win for Nakashima is 5.5

The over/under 43.5 games is  1.9 and (under) 1.8 

But to get over 43.5 games in 3 sets impossible, and requires close sets in a 4 setter  (in 5 you would win).

Is it worth taking both the 5 set options, and under 43.5 games?

Edited July 5 by neilovan

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

Is it worth taking both the 5 set options, and under 43.5 games?

I’d say no. If you think either price is demonstrably wrong then back that option. Backing them all dutches to 1.067. You lose entirely if there are 4 sets but >43.5 games. You’d know better than me but that price doesn’t instinctively appeal for betting that such a scenario won’t occur.

[CzechPunter]

Not convinced by Krejcikova anymore, can't recommend my bet from above. Keys got the job done easily enough at least.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I’d say no. If you think either price is demonstrably wrong then back that option. Backing them all dutches to 1.067. You lose entirely if there are 4 sets but >43.5 games. You’d know better than me but that price doesn’t instinctively appeal for betting that such a scenario won’t occur.

Intriguingly poised in terms of the approach in question @neilovan 

[amity]

31 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Intriguingly poised in terms of the approach in question @neilovan 

It's incredible how many breakpoints Nakashima has saved, including two match points! Humbert might be thinking "how on earth am I not done with this match already and preparing for the next one?". Psychologically it might play on his mind, then again the best professionals can deal with this and close off the match on their return. But I think if Humbert loses that tiebreak then the psychological edge is all with Nakashima. 

[neilovan]

47 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Intriguingly poised in terms of the approach in question @neilovan 

If I had taken the bet I would be hoping for Nakashima in the 4th. Sometimes the best decision is just not to be there in the 1st place.

Just bizarre today that the one match they bring indoors is the Vekic Yastremska match. Certainly helped Yastremska as hitting conditions are just perfect indoors. Outdoors it's not so easy to blast away. Also really helped her to have the weather delay as she was hitting herself again and freaking out again. Abnormal behavior.

I had Vekic, Keys and Raducanu all to win and Vekic and Keys each 2:0 in separate bets. Lost one, won the other but pretty darn close as Vekic had match point at 5-6 in the 2nd.

Had a small bet on Badosa and Tiafoe which was also super close. Alcaraz down 2 sets to 1 serving at 4-4 was 0-30. Tiafoe just gotta get 1 of the next 3 points for a break/match point at that stage.

Still was a good day. Betway has a policy here of cancelling bets on matches that get delayed 48 hours, so had to cash out of the Fognini win, winning but leaving money on the table.

Just bizarre weather all over. Endless rain in UK and in SA we will have 22C next week in the dead of winter.

Edited July 5 by neilovan

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Not convinced by Krejcikova anymore, can't recommend my bet from above. Keys got the job done easily enough at least.

I think the bet is OK. Krejcikova just went through a mental downswing for a few months. I think the bad vibe from the Siniakova doubles split messed with her mind.

But she was pretty good against Kudermetova. Held her nerve well and came back into games where she was 0 40 down at least 3 times. I think that she won the 3rd set well shows that her confidence and fortitude is returning.

Edited July 5 by neilovan

[Torque]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Not convinced by Krejcikova anymore, can't recommend my bet from above. Keys got the job done easily enough at least.

What changed between picking the bet and now ?

[CzechPunter]

8 hours ago, Torque said:

What changed between picking the bet and now ?

I saw her entire match against Volynets. Very labored, could've easily lost in straights, no natural flow in her game.

[timovk]

Ruusuvuori @2.12 NO
Fils @1.75 YES
Rune -1.5 sets @1.53 NO
Wang + [email protected] YES
Collins @1.50 YES
Jabeur @1.53 NO

GL You all! 

Edited July 7 by timovk
3-3

[neilovan]

I think the heavier conditions really favor the big hitters, My feeling is that Norrie has almost no chance against Zverev.

I think Zverev just dominates him and wins in 3 sets. Zverev is actually serving great and hitting a ferocious backhand. I don't think slice and dink wins here.

Similarly in the womans matchup between Collins and Haddad Mia, I think conditions favor Collins (who won't die wondering). Also very difficult to get any momentum or feel for the game when the points are so short, and Haddad Mia needs to play herself into the match. I don't think she can against Collins.

One match I would really stay away from is Ostapenko v Pera. Both are crazily inconsistent. My feeling is anything can happen in this match. Ostapenko could go into tennis zoombie mode and Pera could have an incredible day. It could also be 6-1 6-0 to Ostapenko🤑

Amazing that Sinner has already played Hanfmann and Berretinni and Djokovic is lined up against his 3rd marshmallow in a row.

 

Edited July 6 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Just going to watch the amatches with a loaded gun (not for myself). I think there will be some good opportunities for in play betting.

[Torque]

12 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I think the heavier conditions really favor the big hitters, My feeling is that Norrie has almost no chance against Zverev.

I think Zverev just dominates him and wins in 3 sets. Zverev is actually serving great and hitting a ferocious backhand. I don't think slice and dink wins here.

Similarly in the womans matchup between Collins and Haddad Mia, I think conditions favor Collins (who won't die wondering). Also very difficult to get any momentum or feel for the game when the points are so short, and Haddad Mia needs to play herself into the match. I don't think she can against Collins.

One match I would really stay away from is Ostapenko v Pera. Both are crazily inconsistent. My feeling is anything can happen in this match. Ostapenko could go into tennis zoombie mode and Pera could have an incredible day. It could also be 6-1 6-0 to Ostapenko🤑

Amazing that Sinner has already played Hanfmann and Berretinni and Djokovic is lined up against his 3rd marshmallow in a row.

 

Popyrin can play on grass and Djokovic isn't moving well. In normal circumstances, it should be a virtual walkover but having watched the match against Fearnley I'm not so sure now - Fearnley took a set and from a break down also so Popyrin should be aiming for that at least. If he can somehow make the match go long I wouldn't want to trust that Djokovic is up to it physically. Any other tournament than this or maybe another Slam and Djokovic would not be playing, and there's a precedent for him retiring from a match even at this tournament if he doesn't think he can compete and that was against Berdych a few years back. I'm tempted to back Popyrin in some way, but Djokovic so many times manages to turn things around so he'll probably win in straights.

[neilovan]

Amazing . Krejcikova gets win through retirement. I must be 15 to 0 in having my winning bets nullified by a loser who quits.

[CzechPunter]

Daniil Medvedev to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.67 with Bet365

I think Medvedev takes this one, he has the return to deal with Dimitrov's dangerous serve, and he looked surprisingly energetic/motivated against Struff. DImitrov can do some damage in a set or two, but the format favors Medvedev imo.

[neilovan]

Woman's championship looks wide open now that Sabalenka and Swiatek are out.

Not quite sure why Keys should be 1.30 against Paolini. For me these odds don't make much sense. Maybe it is inflow of American backers that have reduce the odds on Keys. I think she should be somewehere near 1.8 and Paolini perhaps 2.1   Will take a small single on Paolini here

Similar story for Gauff v Navarro. Gauff has had a similar draw to Djokovic, getting 3 easy matches to start her quest to be champion. Navarro has played Shnaider and Osaka which are far tougher opponents. For me these matches come down to strategy and tactics (similar to Putintseva yesterday).  Again a small bet on Navarro here.

Both these matches are excellent opportunities to wait and see in game.

My feeling is that Vekic beats Badosa in a close match. Her match against Yastremska was quite a strange one, but she hit the ball exceptionally well in that 3rd set. It indicates to me that she can match Badosa in the groundstroke department,  and beat her when it comes to serving. Vekic to win.

 

I think Shelton is more than capable of winning a set against SInner. Strong and tall with a bazooka of a serve. Originally I thought he was just a 'serving bot' but he has some game. Probably 1 or 2 tie breakers in this match which sets up over 33.5 games. Again small bet here obn the over 33.5

Edited July 7 by neilovan

[neilovan]

10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Daniil Medvedev to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.67 with Bet365

I think Medvedev takes this one, he has the return to deal with Dimitrov's dangerous serve, and he looked surprisingly energetic/motivated against Struff. DImitrov can do some damage in a set or two, but the format favors Medvedev imo.

I agree. Medvedev is a terrible opponent for Dimitrov. He'll give him no pace work with, and just "out patience" him. Playing Medeved is probably the tennis equivalent to somebody giving you a 'dead fish' limp hand shake. You are not sure if you should 'shake' or 'let-go'.😬

[sterziyskii]

Dimitrov - Medvedev over 3.5 sets, Keys to beat Paolini at 1.40, Paul -1.5 hk sets combined at 2.70.

Keys odds are a little short but her serve should help her here. I like Paolini but Paolini's 2nd serve is really attackable and I think it will be hard for her to keep up.

Paul will have an easy match in maximum 4 sets I believe. Agut is 36 years old and played tough matches against Musetti and Fognini. Paul is in such a great form and won't have struggles here.

[timovk]

Mistake! 

Edited July 7 by timovk
Mistake copy