Royal Ascot Day 4 - Friday June 23rd

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 2.30

Eighteen speedy two year old fillies line up for the Albany Stakes. The Crisford’s Carla’s Way looked good at Doncaster on her debut and is on the short list along with Roger Varian’s Jabaara a 3/4L winner at Newmarket on her debut but my fancy is Michael O’Callaghan’s Navassa Island who ran a remarkable race on her debut when flashing home to finish runner up in a Group 3 at Naas won by Porta Fortuna who re-opposes here. I confidently expect her to turn the tables and looks good each way value.

 

NAVASSA ISLAND 1 point each way 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.05

Little Big Bear will be very popular here having bounced back to form in the Sandy Lane at Haydock and he will be very hard to beat. Sakheer drips back sprinting after not staying the mile in the 2000 guineas and looks a threat along with Lezoo who herself failed to stay in the first fillies classic. I’ll stick with Little Big Bear to score for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore.

 

LITTLE BIG BEAR 2 points win @ 5/4 Skybet

 

Ascot 3.40

Another competitive handicap, this time over 1M 4F with the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap. The most interesting runner is the Charlie Appleby trained Al Nafir who could be well treated having not been seen for 259 days. The Varian runner Nagano has been off for 664 days but wouldn’t be out of this whilst Live Your Dream looks another with claims. Another tough call but the vibes are right for Al Nafir so he’ll do for me.

 

AL NAFIR 1 point each way 9/2 bet365 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 4.20

In the absence of Godolphin’s Mawj who was an eleventh hour absentee It’s very hard to oppose Dermot Weld’s top three year old filly Tahiyra who followed up a credible second to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas with an authoritative victory in the Irish version from Mediate and Comhra. Mammas Girl and Remarquee were well behind her in the 1000 Guineas and the biggest threat to the favourite may come from the Gosden’s Queen For You who can reverse York form with Sounds Of Heaven but she is still rated some 18lb inferior to Tahiyra and this really is hers to lose.

Mediate has been beaten three times by Tahiyra and can also hit the frame again.

 

TAHIYRA 3 1/2 points win 4/7 bet365

 

Ascot 5.00

A wide open handicap for three year old fillies spread across the course over a mile. Coppice was touted as a 1000 Guineas horse in the spring for the Gosden’s before blotting his copybook in the Nell Gwyn. She’s bounced back to form since in a weak race at Newcastle and is one for the short list.

Aiden O’Brien’s Jackie Oh ran well in the Irish 1000 last time and can also run well whilst Orchid Bloom and Copy Artist are two at bigger odds that could run well.

A tough call but I’ll stick with Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore to strike with Jacki Oh in a race where the fancied horses usually run well.

 

JACKIE OH 1 point each way @ 7/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234567

 

Ascot 5.35

Only six go to post for the King Edward VII stakes which looks likely to go to the Roger Varian trained King Of Steel who ran a remarkable race in the Derby when beating all bar the winner Auguste Rodin. Officially 7lb better than these and holding the second favourite Arrest, Artistic Star and Dubai Mile on Epsom form and is a confident selection.

 

KING OF STEEL 2 points win @ 11-10 William Hill

 

Ascot 6.10

A minefield of a race with 29 three year olds hurtling down the track. The one for early money has been George Boughey’s Conquistador who we haven’t seen for 90 days and win or lose looks poor value to me at his current odds of around 6/1. The 5F listed contest at York at the Dante meeting may be the best form guide here with seven of them running there. Pillow Talk beat all bar the winner Great State and her subsequent defeat in France can be put down to her not staying the 6th furlong or the race coming too soon. She may be the value bet now back at 5F.

 

PILLOW TALK 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

The 4th day of Royal Ascot sees the running of the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes. This handicap is open to 3-year-olds and up and is run over 1 mile, 3 furlongs and 211 yards. The off time is 15.40.

There is a field of 22. Some bookmakers are offering 5 places which makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The stand-out stat is that no horse in stalls 1 to 11 has won, from 78 attempts.

All the winners have won over the distance before. There have been 59 horses that had not won over the distance and they all lost.

The ideal weight is 8st 12lbs to 9st 4lbs with 7 wins from 78 runs and a profit of 45 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have just 2 wins from 77 runs with a loss of 67 points.

 

4 horses match these criteria.

OMNISCIENT 18/1

STAY WELL 33/1

MORACANA 25/1

PRYDWEN 25/1

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5 places.

[yossa6133]

Noble Style 15:05 Ascot (12/1 or 13/2 w/o the fav). May be a bit quirky and things went badly wrong last time, but he's better than that and worth another go at a decent price. Not sure whether to go each way or w/o the fav.

 

Well, that was terrible, give up on that one. Remarkable from the winner after fluffing the start.

Edited June 23, 2023 by yossa6133

[Sporting Sam]

Ascot 6.10

 

Unforgotten

Accidental agent

Both each way 

[richard-westwood]

5.00 ascot 

Chelsea Green 8.6 12/1 

Ma belle artiste  8.4 14/1 

These 2 have decent ratings so I'll try 10pt ew both 

[Villa Chris]

Doubles ew 0.50 

3.40 Aikhal 50/1 Nagano 12/1

6.10 Radio Goo Goo 16/1 Tatterstall 12/1

4 fold 0.50 ew 

3.05 Shaquille 17/2

3.40 Aikhal 50/1

5.00 Jackie Oh 5/1

6.10 Radio Goo Goo 16/1 

win pays £24,835,24  place pays 124.74

[Villa Chris]

Market Rasen 3.55

Top two 

Northern Bound 9.47 15/2

Francky Du Berlais 9.32 13/2

5 points win Northern Bound 

[Brahmin]

R. Moore place treble top 6 finish @ 11/2.... 2.30 Matrika   2nd   / 3.40 Okita soushi   Won     / 5.00  Jackie Oh 

ascot 2.30  Persian dreamer   25/1 EW   4th  22.50 pts    &   Dawn charger  22/1 EW        4 places    betfair

ascot 3.05  Shaquille  9/1 EW   Won  48 pts   &   Shouldvebeenairing    25/1 EW

ascot 3.40  Aimeric  10/1 EW       &     White wolf     25/1  EW          5 places  betfair

ascot 4.20  Remarquee  28/1 EW   2nd  22.50 pts    &    Mammas girl   16/1  EW        2 places

ascot 5.00  Eximious  40/1 EW     &     Clounmacon   12/1 EW      6 Places 

ascot 5.35  King of steel   11/10   Won   52.50 pts 

ascot 6.10  Conquistador   8/1  EW  3rd  9.75 pts       &      Radio goo goo  12/1  EW   4th  12.75 pts  &    Rocking ends   66/1 EW       5 places

 

Well a great last 2 races... for 2 nice wins 🏆 🏆 and  4 EW places...... taking nice 3 figure profit withdraw out tonight  👍💷 ......3 good days from 4 so far, think i wont push my luck and just do small 0.5 pt EW's Saturday

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Brahmin

[kensland]

Royal Ascot. 

Singles

3.40. Teumessias Fox        5/1

5.00. Foniska                      33/1

6.00. Looking for Lynda      33/1

all selections £2  ew.

Good luck all. 

[kensland]

Musselburgh. 

Patent. 

5.30. Chinese Spirit         7/2   2nd 

7.50. Sixor                       11/2   2nd 

9.00. Manhammer           9/2   unpl

stk 3.50       rtn 133.00

Good luck all. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by kensland

[Fader]

Day 4 preview. A good yesterday with multiple winners

 

[Sporting Sam]

 

Redcar 1.20

 

Lady of Africa

Each way 

Mimi Kakushi was behind a horse who finished down the field in the Coventry.

That she couldn't hold on to fourth alone, dead heating, still puts her bang on course to wipe the floor with most of these doubtful sorts.

 

Lady of Africa though, has some form in the book to suggests she has a very good chance of getting close to the likely winner. Maybe even turn the jolly over....

Lady of Africa

 

Each way 

 

The Albany stakes

An intriguing race where as usual, people get bowled over by bare form, where horses have run past trees.

It is difficult to pick holes in the performance of Carla's way, but perhaps it isn't.

The she beat franked the form impressively next time out winning by 11 lengths.( Star of mystery)

The thing to remember is the horse franked it's own form and may well be a much better horse. Carla's way is a breeze up horse and should have done well given she'd had a run in private at the sales a long time before the rest.

The horses therefore who impressed staying on behind impressive winners are ones to look at  and horses who really did do it tough under pressure on debut.

Two who really caught my eye are jabarra and navassa Island 

Both worked their way out of difficult positions to put up eye catching 👁️ performances on debut.

Navassa Island was gaining on the winner over in Ireland and made up huge ground and would have won in another stride.

Colin Keane returns from riding yet more winners last night in Ireland after his stunning ride here this week. Colin Keane is a master at progressing horses from their first runs and may get another late run here.

 

 

While David Egan rides for a yard who won this race from an identical position on the track just a few years ago under same jockey.

 

Redcar 1.20

Lady of Africa

Each way 

Ascot 2.30

Jabarra

Navassa Island 

Both win 

Edited June 23, 2023 by sporting sam

[Bang on]

An interesting sprint at Musselburgh, with 2 lively contenders both dropping down the weights.

7.50 Muss -

Primo's Comet - 4/1 generally - Is now 13lbs below his winning mark (within the last year), is a 6 x CD winner, and the Mulrennan/Goldie (19% when paired) combination.

Latin Five - 7/2 with W.Hills - Is now 10lbs below his winning mark (within the last year), is a 3 x D winner (but not course), and the Lee/Midgley (20% when paired) combination.

I have backed both, and will be keeping an eye on (via tracker) whoever doesn't win as they are sure to be winning soon.

[yossa6133]

Bet365 have Tahiyra on "super boost" at 11/8,  I think the max is £30.

There is a theory that their boosts are jinxed or they know they are getting beat,  but on the face of it that's a good deal.

Edited June 23, 2023 by yossa6133

[calva decoy]

Ascot 5.00 

KARSAVINA 33/1 Sky 8 places 

EMBRACE 16/1 bet365 6 places 

YOUNGEST 50/1 Sky 8 places 

6.35 Down Royal - MARIA BRANWELL 10/3 Sky 

9.00 Musselburgh - YELLOW BEAR 12/1 eway bet365 3 places 

Prices 8.30am ( ish )

[azzybear]

soprano 2.30

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Bet365 have Tahiyra on "super boost" at 11/8,  I think the max is £30.

There is a theory that their boosts are jinxed or they know they are getting beat,  but on the face of it that's a good deal.

I generally do quite well with them but all the Royal Ascot ones this week have lost

You could probably lay them on Betfair and make a guaranteed small profit

[black rabbit]

Ma Belle Artiste                                               5 00 A/              1/40th  of a pt ew        25/1

 

 

 

 

P/L        + 158.90 pts

[Sporting Sam]

Ascot 3.40

Nagano

Each way 

Over two years away.

But in huge form when last seen.

Edited June 23, 2023 by sporting sam

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Musselburgh 7.15

SUGAR BABY

[Sporting Sam]

Queen for you

each way

Her mum won this race in 2012

Fallen for you. ( Dansilli)

This one is a Kingman and you only get one crack at upholding such a record.

Course and distance winner narrowly beaten on other run.

Long season for the favourite and never won in England before today. While she should romp home on these terms not a certain thing.

[yossa6133]

Probably should have just lumped on Tahiyra and watched the rest of Ascot 😂

[Sporting Sam]

 

5pm

Jackie oh

Each way

[Sporting Sam]

Ascot 6.10

 

Radio goo goo

Each way 

Last race and no winners at the meeting for two days.

Cue David Evans and radio goo goo not one of his leading lights but in a five timer with a penalty to boot.

Most unlikeliest of winners at the meeting.

[fd1972uk]

Another poor return, Frankie won on 1st, had Persian Dreamer but can't for the life of me see each way details on Sky Bet. Also should have had win part refunded which I haven't, seems strange. Anyone know if you can see ew terms, it would appear it was only 3 places but that seems strange.

[Sporting Sam]

Goodwood 8.05

 

Halla Dubai

Win

For Owen Burrows.

Twice second to unbeaten horses in last two outings.

Steps up in class on handicap debut and likely to give a good account for very astute trainer who has very few runners at a time.

[kroni]

1 hour ago, fd1972uk said:

Another poor return, Frankie won on 1st, had Persian Dreamer but can't for the life of me see each way details on Sky Bet. Also should have had win part refunded which I haven't, seems strange. Anyone know if you can see ew terms, it would appear it was only 3 places but that seems strange.

Bookies were stingy on that first race some were 4 places but skybet was only 3 places, they often do a money back if 2nd 3rd maybe 4th on the first race, so that might have something to do with it

[Sporting Sam]

Down royal

8.15

Ledger

Each way

Returns after 184 days and gets in as a reserve very high up the handicap after two runs. Clear ability 

[Sporting Sam]

 

Mussleburgh

9.pm

Global humour

Win

Yellow bear

Each way 

[Villa Chris]

On 6/22/2023 at 9:37 PM, Villa Chris said:

Market Rasen 3.55

Top two 

Northern Bound 9.47 15/2

Francky Du Berlais 9.32 13/2

5 points win Northern Bound 

Lost 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +120.19