Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June

[richard-westwood]

Epsom dash 

Clarendon house  9.0 9/1 

Silkie wilkie    8.9  12/1 

Mountain peak  8.3 

Came from dark   8.3 

Vintage clarets   8.2 

Very competitive race ....top 2 are a little clear ....no surprise to see any of these 5 in mix up but I'll try 10pt ew top 2 😃

Tricasts all 5

[calva decoy]

I've backed 2021 winner & 4th last year MOKAATIL 14/1eway sky bet ( 7 places ) via the horses for courses system in the dash . 👎 Lpoked like the claimer on board had a hard time dealing with the course .

Edited June 3, 2023 by calva decoy

[The Brigadier]

It’s Derby day and the ITV cameras are showing all eight races from an intriguing card from Epsom where following extensive watering throughout the week the ground should be riding perfect with the official report reading as good. I’ve some strong fancies in the last three handicaps today so here’s my racing tips to beat the bookies.

 

Epsom 12:50

The day kicks off with the Group 3 Betfred Diomed Stakes run over 1M 113 yards.

The one to beat has to be the Godolphin horse Highland Avenue. He’s been a talented horse over the years and it’s his latest effort which makes him a stand out here. He appeared to be used as a pacemaker for the re-appearing 2021 Derby winner Adayar at Newmarket in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes last month keeping on well to finish third to his stablemate beaten 3L, just 1/2L behind the runner up Anmaat with Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality some 11L further back in fourth. Anmaat was out last week in France winning a Group 1 and that looks a good piece of form, certainly better than anything his opponents have mustered in recent times.

Handicap ratings have David O’Meara’s Escobar only a pound behind the favourite but he’s best in big field handicaps and was soundly beaten in this contest last season.

Imperial Fighter is out of form and Marie’s Diamond has a stone to find with Highland Avenue whilst the only three year old in the field Kolsai maybe the one to chase Highland Avenue home.

The only negative against the favourite is the stable form of Charlie Appleby who (upto racing on Thursday) had had just 4 winners from his last 32 runners which by his standards is pretty poor.

 

HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point win @ 5/4 BetVictor

 

Epsom 13:30

This year’s Derby is run earlier than normal due to avoiding a clash with the FA Cup Final and let’s hope there’s no issues with the Animal Rising hooligans who are planning to disrupt the great race. Run over 1M 4F we have a stellar field of 14 for this year’s renewal.

Aidan O’Brien struck top form last weekend when winning with Guineas disappointment Little Big Bear and Paddington in the Irish 2000 Guineas and will be hoping that Auguste Rodin can also bounce back from his flop in the 2000 Guineas. He obviously could but at the current prices he’s impossible to put up after his lack lustre effort there for whatever reason.

The Dante at York is always the best trial in my opinion and the best of the three that ran that day may well be Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger. On a day in which Richard Kingscote would like to forget (Astro King anyone!) he constantly ran in to trouble and was flying when finally extracted to finish third to the winner The Foxes beaten only 1 1/2L. Would he have won? It’s hard to tell but that was only his second ever start and improvement is highly likely here stepping up a furlong and a half. He was supplemented for this at the cost of £85,000 and is on the short list for the team that took the race last year.

Charlie Appleby’s Military Order, as a full brother to the 2021 winner Adayar, has to be respected. He’s done more coming into the race than his brother did when winning this a couple of years ago with the only negative for me the form of the stable who just aren’t firing on all cylinders.

Arrest would be a fairytale result for Frankie Dettori riding in his last Epsom Derby before retirement and that is a distinct possibility although he could have done with easier ground. If you like Arrest then surely it’s worth backing Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat him at Saint Cloud last Autumn over 10F and had an ideal prep for this when running a credible 5th in the 2000 Guineas. It’s baffling that he’s twice the price of Arrest and has to be part of the staking plan along with Passenger.

An intriguing race , as always, let the best horse win.

 

PASSENGER 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 14:10

Just the six go to post for the 1M 113 yards Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 contest for fillies and mares only.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova ran second in this last year but her latest run and re-appearance was blighted by an irregular heartbeat with Ryan Moore pulling her up at Goodwood. It’s hard to fancy her after that effort.

Half a length behind Potapova last year was the Archie Watson trainer Roman Mist who ran out a good winner of the listed contest at Goodwood that Potapova pulled up in a month ago on heavy ground. This looks tougher mind and has 11lb to find with favourite and most likely winner Prosperous Voyage.

Ralph Beckett’s four year old Prosperous Voyage, a winner here as a two year old, kept top company last season finishing runner up in the 1000 Guineas and causing an upset in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting when defeating Inspiral at 16/1. The ground was probably against her on her re-appearance when only 5th of 9 in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on soft ground and back on a sounder surface and dropped in class looks the one they all have to beat.

Ed Walker’s Random Harvest has to shoulder a 3lb penalty which will make this tough for her whilst the ground surely isn’t soft enough for Pam Sly’s flag bearer Astral Beau.

The Gosden’s Shaara hated the ground last time and has featured promisingly in gallop reports since, she might be the one to outrun her odds and chase the favourite home.

 

PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 2 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor

 

Epsom 14:45

A new race for the card is the class 3 three years only 5F ‘Dash’ handicap with fourteen declared for this inaugural contest. There’s plenty of horses with chances here including Salisbury one-two Estate and Betweenthesticks from a week ago and there shouldn’t be much between that pair at the revised terms although that was a class 5 handicap and this looks tougher especially now they have both been re-assessed.

The one I like here is the John Quinn trained Jm Jungle who stepped up his form when tackling fast ground for the first time this season when runner up at York in a competitive class 3 handicap a fortnight ago with Miss Brazen and Tatterstall back in 6th and 7th respectively. He’s been raised 4lb for that fine effort and with his trainer doing so well at this track looks the one to be on here with Jason Hart on board.

The interesting one in the field is the Roger Varian trained Russet Gold who we haven’t seen since last October having being gelded since. With Harry Davies, who still claims 3lb, on top booked he’s one to watch carefully in the betting.

 

JM JUNGLE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 15:20

The traditional Derby day cavalry charge is up next with twenty speedsters declared for the class 2 Dash Handicap run over 5F with the downhill track on fast ground likely to produce a real spectacle and a very fast time.

Last year’s runner up Mountain Peak is one of two Ed Walker runners here (the other being Came From The Dark who would prefer easier ground) and can run well despite his poor effort last time out at York ( a track he’s never run that well at).

Clarendon House is another with claims having had excuses for his latest effort when a fine 5th at York losing a shoe during the race. Also there with a chance are the consistent Lihou, trained by sprint specialist David Evans and ridden by Hollie Doyle who can turn the tables on his recent conqueror Angle Land on 4lb better terms for 3/4L.

David & Nicola Barron’s Zarzyni is also on my short list having dropped to a mark 5lb lower than his last winning one and wasn’t disgraced at York last week.

The draw has seen winners coming from all across the track so I’m not getting bogged down with that and I will look for the best horse. Hopefully that might be Ian Williams’s Mokaatil whose form figures at this specialist track reads 41110 which includes victory in this very race in 2021 and a credible 4th last year. His jockey is the Irish Sean D Bowen (not to be confused with the jump jockey!) who is a new name to me but has won on 13 of his 272 mounts in his native country and gets to claim the full allowance of 7lb here which puts Mokaatil on a mark of 78 which is 4lb less than his win two years ago and 9lb less than last year’s 4th. With the cobwebs blown away with a run at Newmarket 7 weeks ago on unsuitable easy ground he looks sure to run well in a wide open sprint handicap.

 

MOKAATIL 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

Epsom 15:55

A maximum field of 14 go to post for this class 2 10F Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap for three year olds only for which I think there’s a decent each way bet.

Ralph Beckett’s Balance Play looks thrown in on his handicap debut here off of 81 having finished runner up to the subsequent winner Quddwah at Salisbury a month ago. The winner has won again since and is now rated 95 whilst the third that day Greek Order has also won since and is now rated 85. Nicely drawn in stall 6 this 280,000 guineas yearling by Lope De Vega will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and looks excellent each way value with firms paying an extra place.

As one would expect in a race of this nature there are plenty of dangers lurking including Charlie Hills’ Lose Your Wad who, like the selection, is also making his handicap debut with his form already working out well and with a future Group entry at Royal Ascot further enhancing his claims.

John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of runners with Torito (handicap debut) preferred from soft ground Ascot winner Maasai Mara whilst the Sir Michael Stoute runner Fox Journey is going the right way having won at Newmarket last time but now is 9lb higher in the handicap.

Balance Play is a confident each way bet.

 

BALANCE PLAY 1 1/2 points each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 16:30

Only 9 have declared for this 1M 4F class 2 handicap. Max Mayhem was a winner on his stable debut for Kevin Philippart De Foy in the valuable Roseberry Handicap at Kempton on the all weather in April and off of just a 4lb higher mark has definite claims today.

Scampi was a 16/1 winner for Hayley Turner and Andrew Balding at York last time but is now upped 6lb and has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark.

Sir Mark Prescott has his string in excellent form currently and his representative Sea King sporting first time cheek pieces is another with claims but this can go to the David Menuisier trained Caius Chorister who racked up a five timer last summer including two course and distance wins on fast ground bringing her track form figures to 112. She ran well on ground that may not have suited on her re-appearance in the City And Suburban Handicap here over a trip on the short side when runner up to Bad Company and one would think this race has been the target since especially with Ryan Moore booked. Her future entry in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot later in the month may not be too much of a pipe dream where she to win here off of 99 and is a strong fancy.

 

CAIUS CHORISTER 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365

 

Epsom 17:05

The day finishes with a class 2 6F handicap with another maximum field of 14 going to post.

Jennie Candlish’s Probe won nicely at Newmarket a month ago with Apollo One back in fourth (7lb better off here for 3 1/2L) and even with a 7lb rise can be competitive from a favourable draw in 4 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Haymaker comes here having won at Windsor 12 days ago and has to race off of a 4lb higher handicap mark today.

Robert Eddery has his small string in decent form and saddles his Spring Bloom here who was last seen winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago and a 4lb rise my not stop him being competitive.

The horse I’m keen on though is last year’s victor Mr Wagyu who has a remarkable record in June and July of 15 wins from 30 starts for a level £1 stakes profit at SP of £69.35 (with 10 other times hitting the frame as well) as opposed to his record outside of those months which reads 0 from 43. John Quinn’s eight year came out of stall 12 last year when winning so hopefully a wide draw of 11 won’t be too much of a hinderance. His latest run at York when 7th to Bielsa proved he’s on the way back and off of a handicap mark only 2lb higher than last years win can further his fantastic summer record under regular rider Jason Hart.

 

MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234

 

All odds accurate at time of writing.

[fd1972uk]

At Musselburgh tomorrow, so probably just have a flutter on the derby.

 

[MCLARKE]

This Saturday sees the running of the fastest horse race in the world, the Epsom Dash. The 5-furlong race is all downhill until the last 100 yards. The current world record of 53.69 seconds was set by Stone of Folca in 2012.

The race is open to horses aged three years or older. 20 go to post and off time is 15.20.

Most bookmakers are offering up to 6 places which makes this an excellent betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

It is best to keep clear of those at the top of the betting. Just 2 winners from 64 runners have been in the top 7 in the betting forecast. The remainder have recorded 6 wins from 48 runs with a profit of 98 points.

Claiming jockeys have a poor record with no wins from 26 attempts.

Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 5 wins from 62 runs and a profit of 50 points.

 

3 horses meet these criteria.

 

ZARZYNI 16/1

CAME FROM THE DARK 16/1

SAMPERS SEVEN 11/1

 

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5/6 places.

[In Play Race Reader]

In the dash,I’ve backed Clarendon House (2)and a smaller each way on Recon Mission(1) ,,Against public perception that you need a high draw ,,when in fact over the last 10 runnings,when the going’s come up fast ,ie Good -Firm (which has happened 4 times) the winners have been drawn ;;2,1,1,2 ,,, at sp’s of 33/1,25/1,16/1 & 50/1 ,,,,Looks decent value to me 👍

[Brahmin]

Well done to The Brigadier for 2 nice Friday Epsom winners 👍......not a 1st day racing on here i anticipated, loss of 50pts!

soooo hey ho day 2 at Epsom better i hope....60pts stakes

1.30    Passenger  13/2  ( betfair )   10pts win   ( added to friday list on sat morning )

1.30    Arrest  4/1 ( betfair odds boost offer )   10 pts win

1.30    White Birch  12/1 ( betfair 4 places)    5 pts EW

1.30    Dubai Mile    16/1 (betfair 4 places)   5pts EW

 

2.45    Miss Brazen 10/1  (betfair 4 places)   5pts EW

2.45    Zuffolo   12/1  ( betfair 4 places)    5pts EW

 

3.20   Ancient Times  9/1 ( betfair 5 places)   5pts EW

3.20   Lihou   14/1   (betfair 5 places)     5 pts EW

 

3.55  Kadovar  12/1   (betfair 4 places)    5pts EW

3.55  Perfect Play  12/1  (betfair 4 places)   5pts EW

 

Good luck to all with todays racing

 

 

Edited June 3, 2023 by Brahmin

[kensland]

Going with, Frankley Dettori's rides one for  John & Thardy Gosden and Mr Ralph Beckett. 

Double. 

1.30. Arrest         7/2

2.10. Prosperous Voyage     6/4

singles & double 

stk 6.00       rtn 36.50.

Good luck all. 

 

,

[Zilzalian]

I am sticking with my original figures in the derby, i am fairly confident that they are accurate on what we have seen so far, Stout has previous (workforce et al) and i am guessing Passenger is very special and the figures support this. I wouldnt put anyone off backing all 4 stout horses tomorrow although i am underwhelmed by the lack of value so 3 trebles and a 4fold for me.

elsewhere on the card 245 Estate forecast- between the sticks 320 the dash well i am going to risk old git Lord Riddiford that 33/1 is far to big, Vintage clarets and Lihou wont be far away, both from good draws.

1. The Foxes         139            12/1

2. White Birch      136            14/1

3. Passenger        131++p     13/2 

4 Military Order  129             9/2

Outsider with a place chance My Dear Friend 150/1

Edited June 2, 2023 by Zilzalian
update

[APitt1988]

At Worcester races tomorrow, not overly knowledgeable in the horse racing. Any pointers or advice to help find some winners, would be much appreciated.

good luck in the big one tomorrow, especially those on the Frankie oaks/derby double. 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, APitt1988 said:

At Worcester races tomorrow, not overly knowledgeable in the horse racing. Any pointers or advice to help find some winners, would be much appreciated.

good luck in the big one tomorrow, especially those on the Frankie oaks/derby double. 

Pretty poor lot to be honest amalfi bay seems ok in the 455 as does hermes le gris in the 200 at the prices. but i wouldnt be that confident. Sir jack west in forecast with hermes le gris seems an option.

[Villa Chris]

Stratford 6.50 Shantou Express 2/1

Not the strongest of races and he won this last year off 127 where as he runs off 122 today which indicates a drop in form. Ran average in a class 2 last time out in a deeper race. This is a lot easier and everything is there to suit . 
 

Stratford 8.20 Coup De Pinceau 4/1

Ran well last time out and hopefully can hold his form today off the same mark over this long trip where  he usually stays well with Harry Cobden on board . Not sure the favourite will stay and the other chief threat Tommie Beau has a 7Ibs penalty to contend with which basically has him running off a career high mark and is not sure to back up his win last time out. I think the selection offers a bit of value in this 4 horse race. 

5 points win both 

Edited June 3, 2023 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

21 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This Saturday sees the running of the fastest horse race in the world, the Epsom Dash. The 5-furlong race is all downhill until the last 100 yards. The current world record of 53.69 seconds was set by Stone of Folca in 2012.

The race is open to horses aged three years or older. 20 go to post and off time is 15.20.

Most bookmakers are offering up to 6 places which makes this an excellent betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

It is best to keep clear of those at the top of the betting. Just 2 winners from 64 runners have been in the top 7 in the betting forecast. The remainder have recorded 6 wins from 48 runs with a profit of 98 points.

Claiming jockeys have a poor record with no wins from 26 attempts.

Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 5 wins from 62 runs and a profit of 50 points.

 

3 horses meet these criteria.

 

ZARZYNI 16/1

CAME FROM THE DARK 16/1

SAMPERS SEVEN 11/1

 

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5/6 places.

Interesting as I’ve got on the ratings 

1 Came from The Dark 9.2 

2 Mountain Peak/Zarzyni level on 9.09

[calva decoy]

On 6/2/2023 at 10:28 AM, fd1972uk said:

At Musselburgh tomorrow, so probably just have a flutter on the derby.

 

Enjoy , take some suncream , the 3.05 looks a good competitive race , will the Irish 3 year old raiders upset the older UK brigade getting the age allowance ?

My Nap for today HEREDIA 2nd 4/5  skinny at 5/4 last night in the race🤞

Edited June 3, 2023 by calva decoy

[calva decoy]

18 hours ago, APitt1988 said:

At Worcester races tomorrow, not overly knowledgeable in the horse racing. Any pointers or advice to help find some winners, would be much appreciated.

good luck in the big one tomorrow, especially those on the Frankie oaks/derby double. 

Enjoy your day , I've backed both of P.Bowens horses DALKINGSTOWN 3/1 in 2.35 , unseated rider 

previous CD winner & DICEY RIELLY 3/1 in 5.25 decent 3rd on last run . 1st 9/2 

Edited June 3, 2023 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

Oddest Derby betting i can remember this year, anyone else think the same? Dettori and or rodin fav based on what? Dettori last ride in a derby (allegedly). Rodin bombed out despite being touted as the best thing since sliced bread LTO. Dante was run in a very fast time but you can bet those first 2 at 12/1 14/1 and the unlucky Passenger 7/1, that apart from others with chances.  Its not a big jump to think there will be a whopping price in the 1st 4 somewhere. Weird indeedy.

[Villa Chris]

38 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Interesting as I’ve got on the ratings 

1 Came from The Dark 9.2 

2 Mountain Peak/Zarzyni level on 9.09

That’s asking for a combination forecast at those prices . I’ll play it and hope I get lucky.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Doncaster 4.00

SAINT GEORGE

[The Equaliser]

1.30 Eps The Foxes 1 pt w at 10.5 and Dubai Mile 0.50 ew at 25/1 4p = 2 pts

Edited June 3, 2023 by The Equaliser

[Zilzalian]

Interesting Derby will have to think about that result for a while, fair play i got the winner all wrong but thats racing for you.

[calva decoy]

16 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Interesting Derby will have to think about that result for a while, fair play i got the winner all wrong but thats racing for you.

An A.P.O'Brien trained horse ridden by R.Moore , take out the rest of the noise & it's so easy ( after the event ) 😆

Fair play the 2nd , ran a cracker , AMO racing are definitely going for it & on the up 👍

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, calva decoy said:

An A.P.O'Brien trained horse ridden by R.Moore , take out the rest of the noise & it's so easy ( after the event ) 😆

Fair play the 2nd , ran a cracker , AMO racing are definitely going for it & on the up 👍

Always got a chance hasn’t it that partnership 

[Tedthewolf]

In the dash i am very sweet on ZARZYNI 12/1 7places not bog ill try 3pts e/w= 6pts invested

[Bang on]

Had a small bet on

8.45 Ling - Parisiac - 11/2 - don't often bet in apprentice handicaps, but this one is falling in the weights (16lbs lower than it has won off within the last year). It is only a 4 year old, and wears blinkers 1st time. Don't know much about the apprentice jockey, but it is a small field so hopefully gets a good run. Trainer Alice Haynes (part owner) is in reasonable form, and at the price looks fair value.

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

1.30 Eps The Foxes 1 pt w at 10.5 and Dubai Mile 0.50 ew at 25/1 4p = 2 pts

Wasted 2 points on the Derby

2 pts L15 on the daily

3.20 Epson Clarendon House 1 pt win at 8.9 and Silkie Wilkie 0.50 ew at 10/1

4.00 Don St George 0.50 w at 6/1and Struth 0.50 win at 15/2

= 7 points

---------------------------------------

8.45 Lin Parisiac 1 pt win at 5.9

Total stakes = 8 today

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 win double on the L15, 2 winners and a place winner makes a profit of 6.90 today.  This at least makes my MTD -0.27. My YTD is -110.95. Many thanks to @Bang on for his winner at 13/2

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[richard-westwood]

On 6/1/2023 at 7:52 PM, richard-westwood said:

Epsom dash 

Clarendon house  9.0 9/1 

Silkie wilkie    8.9  12/1 

Mountain peak  8.3 

Came from dark   8.3 

Vintage clarets   8.2 

Very competitive race ....top 2 are a little clear ....no surprise to see any of these 5 in mix up but I'll try 10pt ew top 2 😃

Tricasts all 5

Gutted ....silkie had no run and loses by a nostril .....I've no doubt he'd have won with a clean run ew money ...clarendon 3rd ew too 

Edited June 3, 2023 by richard-westwood

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Bang on said:

Had a small bet on

8.45 Ling - Parisiac - 11/2 - don't often bet in apprentice handicaps, but this one is falling in the weights (16lbs lower than it has won off within the last year). It is only a 4 year old, and wears blinkers 1st time. Don't know much about the apprentice jockey, but it is a small field so hopefully gets a good run. Trainer Alice Haynes (part owner) is in reasonable form, and at the price looks fair value.

I'll try a 1 pt win at 5.9; many thanks

[maxironchin]

4.30 Epsom

Scampi 2pt win

Selection has won over course and distance. Recent form is good and weight is well within capabilities.

[Tedthewolf]

5.05 Epson 1.5 pt e/w APOLLO ONE 17/2 bog 4p = 3pts invested

[Sporting Sam]

Listowel 5.50

Maggie And Me

Each way

This is a maiden and the selection gets weight from the entire field.

Went well to be 2.25 lengths second over a mile latest.

Exposed but in with a chance even though vunerable to any well bred sorts.....