In Play Race Reader
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HORSE RACING VARIABLES
In Play Race Reader replied to MCLARKE's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
I would have pace of race as my number one,past form and potential pace for todays race -
Youâll be hooked to SR now pal đ
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Thought this was interesting by Simon Rowlands
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It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfacesâ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them. It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf. That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as âstandard â at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as âstandard to slowâ. Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible. A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite. This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used. Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being âcorrectâ 83.3% of the time. Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance). Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so. As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between âgood to softâ and âgood to firm, tending to firmâ on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same. Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance. Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of âstandardâ, as described. Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides. Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I wonât be holding my breath. Sectional Spotlight Sectional Spotlight Blog Archive Dubai World Cup and all-weather surfaces Tuesday, 2nd April 2024 The Flat is back! Tuesday, 26th March 2024 Cheltenham 2024: Day three & day four review Saturday, 16th March 2024 Cheltenham 2024: Day one & day two review Thursday, 14th March 2024 Dublin Racing Festival reflections Tuesday, 6th February 2024 Shake up in Supreme and Ryanair markets Tuesday, 16th January 2024 The Road to Cheltenham Tuesday, 9th January 2024 Festive round-up Wednesday, 3rd January 2024 More blog posts Other Blogs Hollie Doyle Thursday, 4th April 2024 Hong Kong Diary Thursday, 4th April 2024 Sectional Spotlight Tuesday, 2nd April 2024 Kevin Blake Tuesday, 2nd April 2024 Eyecatchers Tuesday, 2nd April 2024 Surfing The Sand Saturday, 30th March 2024 Betfair Ambassadors Saturday, 30th March 2024 Saturday Horses to Follow: Doncaster Friday, 22nd March 2024 Jamie Lynch Thursday, 21st March 2024 Declan Rix Thursday, 21st March 2024 More Blogs
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Yes ,I think I rated it about 78 ,,which is decent mid-top handicapper on my scale ,,but Raceform do often go big at Newcastle,,used to always be big on Southwellâs old surface
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IMO Newcastle is a bit of an anomaly as regards Speed Ratings as most races are run at a crawl early then sprint finish especially on the round course ,if your using all races to get your going allowance thereâs going to be some difficulty ,,I know raceforms SRâs for Newcastle are always out of sync,,Cover up recently won off 83 and was rated 123 ,which is par with Group 1 ,,I use race par finishes to find out which races have been close to truly run
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Naps - Tuesday 9th January
In Play Race Reader replied to HERE's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
19:00 SouthwellâStarshiba 22/1 B365 Each-Way -
Naps - SUNDAY 7th January
In Play Race Reader replied to calva decoy's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
18:30 WolverhamptonâChantico 8/1 PaddyPower -
Naps - Saturday 6th January
In Play Race Reader replied to CS 333's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
18:45 KemptonâTop Secret 3/1 B365 -
Anybody recommend any decent podcasts,,just coming to the end of Business Of Betting ,,Interested in anything betting or trading related đ
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Naps - Thursday 4th January
In Play Race Reader replied to sirspread's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
17:10 NewcastleâYoung Fire 16/1 PaddyPower -
Naps - Wednesday 3rd January
In Play Race Reader replied to Johnrobertson's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
19:00 KemptonâIppotheos 5/1 B365 -
Naps - Tuesday 2nd January
In Play Race Reader replied to Peter York's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
18:30 WolverhamptonâAlreet Cha 4/1 B365 -
17:15 NewcastleâTacarib Bay 14/1 PaddyPower
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Naps-Sunday 31st December
In Play Race Reader replied to tonythepaint's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
15:24 LingfieldâBoom The Groom 22/1 PaddyPower -
Naps - Saturday 30th December
In Play Race Reader replied to sirspread's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
19:15 WolverhamptonâBig Dutchie 40/1 B365 Each-Way -
Naps - FRIDAY 29th December
In Play Race Reader replied to calva decoy's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
18:30 SouthwellâHonour Your Dreams 16/1 B365 -
Naps - Thursday 28th December
In Play Race Reader replied to sirspread's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
17:30 NewcastleâScottish Summit 10/1 B365 -
Naps - Tuesday 26th December
In Play Race Reader replied to Johnrobertson's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
16:35 WolverhamptonâCivil Law 3/1 PaddyPower -
Naps - Saturday 23rd December
In Play Race Reader replied to calva decoy's topic in NAP of the Day Competition
13:25 LingfieldâMeasured Moments 10/3 Bet365