Racing Chat - Sunday 23rd October

[MCLARKE]

Just now, Villa Chris said:

It does need to settle, but I still find it enjoyable and only bet small stakes at the minute anyway.

I wait until November 1st before I start betting on the jumps. I have been working on new systems over the last few weeks.

I always get excited at the start of a new season, I think this will be the year when my new systems make a fortune.

I have said that for the last 40 years though !

[MCLARKE]

6 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Three out of four came second!  how annoying is that?!

Very, but thats's just the way it goes. These bets have performed poorly for the last year, not sure why because in theory they should have a significant edge.

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

I wait until November 1st before I start betting on the jumps. I have been working on new systems over the last few weeks.

I always get excited at the start of a new season, I think this will be the year when my new systems make a fortune.

I have said that for the last 40 years though !

I wish you luck 

[MCLARKE]

11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I would have been over the moon to have won over grand today.  Surely you are happy with that?

Behavioual economics suggest that losing is twice as painful as winning. This suggests that we should cash out even though logic would dictate that we let the bet roll.

 

[azzybear]

gimgembre 4.40 Tipperary star 5.05 

[Villa Chris]

I’m trying a 4 fold footy acca this season with the club I support and 3 other clubs I have soft spots for . Villa/Forest/Everton/Wednesday 

came close early on in season then came close yesterday with Wednesday drawing at Lincoln to cost me 580 off a fiver. I’ll stick with it but it only needs to come in once to make it profitable or break even at worse I reckon . My cash out was 40 quid yesterday after Forest winning at 11/1 but obviously I’m not in it for 40 quid so naturally let it roll. Pennies really compared to the cash out on offer today for Zilz

Edited October 23, 2022 by Villa Chris

[azzybear]

happy dreams 4.45 perfect thunder 4.55

[azzybear]

harde fashion 5.15

[MCLARKE]

5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’m trying a 4 fold footy acca this season with the club I support and 3 other clubs I have soft spots for . Villa/Forest/Everton/Wednesday 

came close early on in season then came close yesterday with Wednesday drawing at Lincoln to cost me 580 off a fiver. I’ll stick with it but it only needs to come in once to make it profitable or break even at worse I reckon . My cash out was 40 quid yesterday after Forest winning at 11/1 but obviously I’m not in it for 40 quid so naturally let it roll. Pennies really compared to the cash out on offer today for Zilz

Apologies for the owls. They have been giving me that sense of disappointment for 50 years !

[The Brigadier]

On 10/22/2022 at 8:47 AM, The Brigadier said:

Aintree 1.30

A highly competitive 3m 149 yards class 3 conditional jockeys handicap hurdle with a decent sized field of sixteen going to post. The weights are headed by My Bobby Dazzler who’s three from four at this tight flat track and shouldn’t be discounted easily for trainer Mel Rowley. Brian Ellison’s Tiger Jet was a very easy 19L winner at Hexham on his re-appearance a fortnight ago and although this is tougher with a 10lb rise is another would could feature at the business end. The one my pin has come down on though is the Dan Skelton trained Hidden Heroics who will be ridden today by his conditional jockey Tristan Durrell who can claim 3lb here. The lightly raced five year old was a decent runner up to City Chief at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting last April and landed the odds laid on him in a weak five runner novice hurdle at Uttoxeter the following month. He looks favourably treated off of 120 and in a wide open contest may be the value bet each way with enhanced places.

 

HIDDEN HEROICS 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Aintree 2.05

The second on the card is an eleven runner 3m 1F handicap chase for veteran chasers. The last two winners of this contest are back here in 2020 winner Minellacelebration (7lb lower now and won this easily by 14L) and Wishing And Hoping (7lb higher now having won this by a comfortable 8L). Both have claims along with several others in another open handicap. The one who has plenty going for him is the David Pipe stable debutant If The Cap Fits. He’s joined the Somerset based trainer from Harry Fry for £45,000 and races now in the red colours of Judith Wilson. He’s had a wind operation since last seen in in April and considering he was rated as high as 166 over hurdles a couple of years ago could be thrown in for his new handler off of only 129. He’s only had the four runs over fences winning at Fontwell and placed in the three other starts including in the grade one Kauto Star novice Chase at Kempton. Philip Armson is still value for his 3lb claim having racked up 41 winners from 544 rides over the past couple of seasons and as with all of Wilson’s runners is in the saddle. He can be backed each way.

 

IF THE CAP FITS 1 1/2 points each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Limerick 2.25

A 2m 5F listed novice hurdle is up next and has attracted just the six runners with total no hoper Beau’s Candle effectively making it a five runner contest. Both Ambitious Fellow trained by Peter Fahey and The Friday Man trained by Gordon Elliott are officially rated the same and it could turn out to be a battle between the pair of them. Slight preference is for the latter who is a consistent sort who’s won four of his last five races, acts on any ground and will be ridden by Davy Russell. He’s the bet here.

 

THE FRIDAY MAN 2 points win @ 11/8 bet365

 

Aintree 2.40

An intriguing eight runner Old Roan Handicap Chase run over 2m 4F. Top weight and favourite is Paul Nicholls’ Hitman who like seven of the eight runners is returning from a break. He has some decent form to his name including runner up spots in the Tingle Creek and Melling Chase last season and has had his wind tinkered with since we last saw him. He’s the one to beat despite his big weight. Janie Snowden has his team in fine shape winning with five of his last six runners and saddles a brace of runners here in Ga Law who’s coming back from a 603 day absence and Soldier Of Destiny who would be the pick of the pair. Michael Scudamore’s Do Your Job won three of his six starts as a novice last season culminating in victory at the Scottish National meeting at Ayr. He goes well fresh and may just edge out Hitman today.

 

DO YOUR JOB 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Limerick 3.00

Another listed hurdle, this time for mares only and run over 2m 6 1/2F and it will be a surprise if the favourite, Gordon Elliott’s Queens Brook doesn’t win this confirming his Cheltenham form with main rival Heaven Help Us who was 6 1/4L behind her in the Mares Hurdle then. She had an interrupted run up to Cheltenham last year and Elliott was very bullish in his trainer file earlier this week about her chances in that race for next year. She’s too short to back for todays contest but it’s worth a small win only ante post bet for the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham at the current odds which look too big.

 

QUEENS BROOK 1 point win @ 12/1 Mares Hurdle (Cheltenham 2023)

 

Aintree 3.15

Eleven assemble for this class 2 2m 4F handicap hurdle. Neil King’s Onemorefortheroad kept decent handicap hurdle company last season winning three of his six starts and placed in the other three in decent class handicaps. He’s got a 204 day absence to overcome although 9 of the 11 are also coming here on the back of a lay off also. Off of the same mark as when third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April he looks sure to be thereabouts under Jack Quinlan who could force the pace on the seven year old. Top weight Gentleman At Arms was a smart staying novice last season and makes his handicap debut off of top weight for Newport Pagnell trainer Stuart Edmunds. He ended his novice season with a highly credible 2nd of 14 in the grade one Sefton Novices’ Hurdle here over 3m. The drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem and he should be thereabouts. Fellow handicap debutant A Different Kind represents Donald McCain and Brian Hughes and is yet another possible along with Fergal O’Brien’s Peking Rose. A tough call but it’s Onemorefortheroad for me.

 

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Limerick 3.35

The Munster National is run over three miles and this year has attracted a maximum field of sixteen runners. As you would expect it’s a very open handicap chase although if there is one horse who looks very well treated surely it’s the Robcour owned Henry De Bromhead trained Ain’t That A Shame. Lightly raced over the big obstacles he was placed behind some smart types in novice company last season before going to Cheltenham in the Kim Muir and being very well supported into 6/1. He flopped then, taking a keen hold and surely he’s better than that effort. He’s 7lb lower back on home soil and he can be backed each way with enhanced places. Gordon Elliott fires five at the race the best of whom may be Floueur whilst Joseph O’Brien is responsible for the top two in the weights, the JP McManus owned Early Doors and A Wave Of The Sea who have each way claims.

 

AIN’T THAT A SHAME 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

 

 

 

just a couple of places today - a loss of 8 points - a poor weekend

[The Equaliser]

31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Behavioual economics suggest that losing is twice as painful as winning. This suggests that we should cash out even though logic would dictate that we let the bet roll.

 

Not sure that it was logical to let the bet roll in the circumstances.  Having got in 3 good-priced winners it seems logical to me not to expect to get in yet another winner that had a 10% chance of winning.  Its price ended up at 5/1 SP so there may have been a later better "cash out" offer.  Could have paid to have laid the horse at 5/1 as a cover bet.  Very difficult whatever one chooses to do.  Seeing the possibility of £13k v £2.6k v £1.2k presented a few options,  However, the important point was, having made the decision, to be content with the result whatever happened ?

[Catchy]

52 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

just a couple of places today - a loss of 8 points - a poor weekend

Kinondo kweto counts as one  winner in my book?

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Behavioual economics suggest that losing is twice as painful as winning. This suggests that we should cash out even though logic would dictate that we let the bet roll.

 

First and most important point is from just a 6 quid starting point (stake). Dilemma (not for me) comes when 1st 3 win, the cashout is basically offering you the 4th gg as a non runner. so 1200 already won for a 6 quid stake, a definite 2600 if i cashed out. Alternatively 13k + 10% bonus if the last horse wins, i would call cashing out in this case economical suicide. One other thing, why bother picking the horses and doing the bet in the first place if you know your going to cash out? Also consider this, that last horse had a free 1200 quid bet going on it at double SP. also if i should have cashed out after 3 winners what about the £263 they offered me after the 1st 2 winners? I know a few who would have took that £263 for £6 and be then be gutted. Finally, if i had cashed out and the last one had of won, i wouldnt have been able to sleep for a fortnight and that would have had nothing to do with the money believe me.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Not sure that it was logical to let the bet roll in the circumstances.  Having got in 3 good-priced winners it seems logical to me not to expect to get in yet another winner that had a 10% chance of winning. 

The fact that you have had 3 previous winners has no bearing on whether the next horse wins.

I assume that the cash out offer is skewed in favour of the bookies.

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

The fact that you have had 3 previous winners has no bearing on whether the next horse wins.

I assume that the cash out offer is skewed in favour of the bookies.

Well why else would they offer one? Skewed isn't the word i would choose. Sly cheeky b'stards on those that are not fully aware of what it entails (Most punters from what i remember of my going in bookies days). look at my bet they offered to buy 13 grand for 1k.

[Villa Chris]

This is from today 

 

A Betfair customer cashed out a Lucky 31 and five-fold accumulator before the final leg which won and would have paid out £425,000.

After four winners the customer decided not to put his faith in the 15-8 favourite Credrojava in the 5.05 at Aintree, and cashed out, guaranteeing a payout of just under £58,000.

Credrojava then won the mares' bumper by half a length for Harry Fry, holding off the challenge of Ruby Island.

The customer staked £67 on runners at Aintree and Ffos Las. He was on 16-1 Old Roan Chase winner Riders Onthe Storm and also won with Honor Grey (9-1) and Dingo Dollar (12-1) at Aintree as well as 7-2 chance Spring Meadow at Ffos Las.

The payout was £21,756 from the Lucky 31 and £36,212 from the  accumulator.

Betfair's Barry Orr said: "The customer elected to cash out and bank nearly £58k for his £67 bet. I’m sure it wasn’t an easy decision to make and he obviously had mixed emotions having seen the last leg win but I imagine there are very few people who wouldn’t have banked the cash.

"His selections were inspired and the second leg, Dingo Dollar, traded at 251-1 in running on the Betfair Exchange but managed to get the job done. Good luck to him."

[The Equaliser]

23 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The fact that you have had 3 previous winners has no bearing on whether the next horse wins.

I assume that the cash out offer is skewed in favour of the bookies.

Most likely, but the value of the cash out was £1400 (£2.6k less £1.2k).  The BSP of the winner was 7.4 so if you preserve £1.2 K and lay 1890 at 7.40 you have a profit of 1852.00 subject to 5% or 2% commission depending on your account set up.  Hence on that basis the bookies skewed the cash out in their favour.  Of course one would have had to have £12096 in the betting exchange account to cover the liability.  I would have taken the cash out as it looked like a good deal to me.  But of course the difference between me and some other punters is that if the horse had sailed to the front and won by a distance I would not be having any sleepless nights having secured an extra £2.6k into my bank account for a £6 bet.  It's all about being content with one's decisions   

[MCLARKE]

Everybody will be different depending on their circumstances.

To some £50k is a life changing sum, to others it's a small proportion of their wealth.

Personally I never cash out but my son in law normally takes the cash out because he's a bit skint.

 

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Everybody will be different depending on their circumstances.

To some £50k is a life changing sum, to others it's a small proportion of their wealth.

Personally I never cash out but my son in law normally takes the cash out because he's a bit skint.

 

 

 

 

You are 100% correct Mike. When the kids were young and money was tight i would have cashed that out all day long, I would have hated doing it but family had to come first back then, I put lucky 15's on now as sporting side bets the excitement/buzz when i get the 1st 3 in in is priceless, funny enough today  i had 4x £5 trebles and a 10 quid acca on the four Scheirgan horses at hanover and the 1st 3 won the last one was nowhere. If it wasnt for bad luck i would have no luck. ???? I did have a tenner on all TV races at aintree and managed to get a 69/1 forecast up at the Curragh (2:00)

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

This is from today 

 

A Betfair customer cashed out a Lucky 31 and five-fold accumulator before the final leg which won and would have paid out £425,000.

After four winners the customer decided not to put his faith in the 15-8 favourite Credrojava in the 5.05 at Aintree, and cashed out, guaranteeing a payout of just under £58,000.

Credrojava then won the mares' bumper by half a length for Harry Fry, holding off the challenge of Ruby Island.

The customer staked £67 on runners at Aintree and Ffos Las. He was on 16-1 Old Roan Chase winner Riders Onthe Storm and also won with Honor Grey (9-1) and Dingo Dollar (12-1) at Aintree as well as 7-2 chance Spring Meadow at Ffos Las.

The payout was £21,756 from the Lucky 31 and £36,212 from the  accumulator.

Betfair's Barry Orr said: "The customer elected to cash out and bank nearly £58k for his £67 bet. I’m sure it wasn’t an easy decision to make and he obviously had mixed emotions having seen the last leg win but I imagine there are very few people who wouldn’t have banked the cash.

"His selections were inspired and the second leg, Dingo Dollar, traded at 251-1 in running on the Betfair Exchange but managed to get the job done. Good luck to him."

in his case and in his place i would have let the lucky 15 ride and cashed out the acca.

[Zilzalian]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not sure that it was logical to let the bet roll in the circumstances.  Having got in 3 good-priced winners it seems logical to me not to expect to get in yet another winner that had a 10% chance of winning.  Its price ended up at 5/1 SP so there may have been a later better "cash out" offer.  Could have paid to have laid the horse at 5/1 as a cover bet.  Very difficult whatever one chooses to do.  Seeing the possibility of £13k v £2.6k v £1.2k presented a few options,  However, the important point was, having made the decision, to be content with the result whatever happened ?

Maybe your play safe personality is the reason you struggle to win and thats not me being disrespectful its just me giving an honest opinion.

[The Equaliser]

19 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Maybe your play safe personality is the reason you struggle to win and thats not me being disrespectful its just me giving an honest opinion.

I have no problem with that. 

I would like to think that you are now content with a £6 bet producing £1,200 despite the possibility of what might have been 

 

[Zilzalian]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have no problem with that. 

I would like to think that you are now content with a £6 bet producing £1,200 despite the possibility of what might have been 

 

The £6 quid stake is the whole point, the way i bet with Lucky 15's 2 winners is always a profit, forget the cash out, i won 1200 quid with a reasonable shot at 13k + 10% bonus for £6. Which is why i have a bet in the first place.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Zilzalian

[The Equaliser]

13 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

The £6 quid stake is the whole point, the way i bet with Lucky 15's 2 winners is always a profit, forget the cash out, i won 1200 quid with a reasonable shot at 13k + 10% bonus for £6. Which is why i have a bet in the first place.

That was a cracking return by anyone's standards of betting.  Very well done.  I hope that you get many more before the year is up.

Ps Can you let PL members in on them ?

Edited October 24, 2022 by The Equaliser

[LEE-GRAYS]

On the French racing thread I’m over £100 up for a 10p e/w lucky15 stake and  4 25p e/w singles going to up it to 20p today so watch the wheel fall off ??

Edited October 24, 2022 by LEE-GRAYS

[Zilzalian]

27 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

On the French racing thread I’m over £100 up for a 10p e/w lucky15 stake and  4 25p e/w singles going to up it to 20p today so watch the wheel fall off ??

Thing is Lee if you just carry on doing what your doing the wheels wont fall off. we all know we will have a bad run now and again but carrying on in the same vein is always the answer imo, change nothing, the stakes are not exactly excessive.

[Bang on]

20 hours ago, Bang on said:

Don't usually bet on Sunday, take a day off, but one came through on my tracker.

5.15 - Ffos Las - Shinobi - 7/1 EW - Trainer Kim Bailey in good form, and was backed a little on Wednesday (20 into 12) but never got to see what might have been. A horse fell in front of it and brought it down/  unseated. Is dropping in the hcp and looks worth an Each Way bet.

WON - unfortunately R4 20p took some of the profit.

[Bang on]

15 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Most likely, but the value of the cash out was £1400 (£2.6k less £1.2k).  The BSP of the winner was 7.4 so if you preserve £1.2 K and lay 1890 at 7.40 you have a profit of 1852.00 subject to 5% or 2% commission depending on your account set up.  Hence on that basis the bookies skewed the cash out in their favour.  Of course one would have had to have £12096 in the betting exchange account to cover the liability.  I would have taken the cash out as it looked like a good deal to me.  But of course the difference between me and some other punters is that if the horse had sailed to the front and won by a distance I would not be having any sleepless nights having secured an extra £2.6k into my bank account for a £6 bet.  It's all about being content with one's decisions   

I have been in a similar situation, personally I NEVER cash out, it is always in the bookies favour. I do though look to 'lay' the selection (especially if it has shortened in the betting) so as to improve the 'consolation' if the last selection loses.

[MCLARKE]

46 minutes ago, Bang on said:

I have been in a similar situation, personally I NEVER cash out, it is always in the bookies favour. I do though look to 'lay' the selection (especially if it has shortened in the betting) so as to improve the 'consolation' if the last selection loses.

I have considered laying my selections but then I ask myself the question, if I think the horse is going to win why would I back it to lose ?

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I have considered laying my selections but then I ask myself the question, if I think the horse is going to win why would I back it to lose ?

Doesn’t make sense really does it. It’s basically backing two horses in a race. Unless they are ew prices, you definitely know one horse isn’t going to give you a return and in your case you definitely know it will either win or lose so one bets guaranteed to lose. I want to try and get out of the habit of betting more than one horse unless in the big handicap races.