Racing chat- Saturday 15th Oct

[richard-westwood]

245 catt 

Zip  8.4  14/1 

Wobwobwob   8.2 13/2 

It just takes time 7.9 

Muntadab    7.9 

Not much flat left ...lets go 10pt ew top 2 

[The Brigadier]

The ground looks set to ride on the soft side of good to soft for Saturday’s Champions Day at Ascot. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.

 

Ascot 1.25

Eight stayers assemble for the 2M Long Distance Cup. Alan King’s Trueshan has won this contest for the last two years and is the one they all have to beat here. He has to put a disappointing effort at Doncaster behind him when going off at 2/9 and beaten a head by the re-opposing Coltrane when taking too keen a hold. But for that effort I feel he would be around an even money chance and I’m willing to forgive him that one off day and he’s the selection. I wouldn’t be shocked if Andrew Balding’s Coltrane was to run well although the biggest dangers to Trueshan will probably come from the two three year olds in St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov who’s stepping up to two miles for the first time and Aidan O’Brien’s Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville although an interesting fact is that eighteen three year olds have tried to win this race and none have succeeded. Official ratings have that pair 7lb and 16lb behind Trueshan with the former the most likely to chase my selection home. Quickthorn had a hard race in France last time and Ebor winner Trawlerman has plenty to do here.

 

TRUESHAN 3 points win @ 15/8 bet365

 

Ascot 2.00

Eighteen sprinters go to post the 6F Group 1 Champions Sprint. Kinross arrives in excellent form having won his last three starts over 7F and drops in trip here. He could only finish 9th in this last year and the trip may well be his undoing. Creative Force won this last year on similar ground and is reportedly in excellent shape so Charlie Appleby’s four year old has to be part of the staking plan. Art Power has attracted money over the last 24 hours and can be competitive although was behind Creative Force last year in this. Rohaan is four from five at the Berkshire track and teed up for this with a comfortable Group 3 win over course and distance a fortnight ago. He must go well although his only defeat here was in this very race last year when well beaten. Perfect Power also has a good track record winning two from two here and looks the best of the four three year olds. The best outsider and worth backing small each way with enhanced places is Charlie Hills’ Garrus who followed up a Group 3 victory at Deauville with a career best one length third in the Prix Maurice De Gheest at the same track a month later. That form looks red hot now with the winner Highfield Princess winning two group ones since and the runner up Minzaal also following up with victory in a group 1. A nose behind Garrus that day was Rohaan and it baffles me how he can be a 4/1 chance today whilst Garrus can be backed at 25/1.

 

CREATIVE FORCE 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

GARRUS 1 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 2.40

Next up is the 1M 4F Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes. Current favourite is John and Thady Gosden’s Emily Upjohn who’s not been seen since pulling her chance away in the King George Vl and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July. Throw in the fact that she’s not encountered easy ground on the race track and she’s a lay for me although the first time hood shouldn’t be seen as a negative with his stable having a good record when applying the hood for the first time. The Gosden’s also run Mimikyu who improved for a first time hood when an easy winner of the Park Hill by 2 3/4L from the re-opposing Eshaada. She has claims IF the hood works again. Eshaada won this last year in a battle with Albaflora and a case can be made for the pair of them here. William Haggas saddles Sea La Rosa who won over a two furlong longer trip on Arc Saturday last time and is a progressive filly. French trainer Francois Graffard saddles the ex Australian Verry Elleegant and Sweet Lady who beat Lilac Road in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last time. The latter is consistent and improving and appeals each way with enhanced places in what looks an open renewal. Charlie Appleby’s Eternal Pearl is yet another improver who’s won her last four starts and should also be in the shake up under William Buick. A tough call but I’ll play Sweet Lady and Eternal Pearl each way.

 

SWEET LADY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

ETERNAL PEARL 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 1234

 

Ascot 3.20

Only nine go to post for the Queen Elizabeth ll Stakes run over the straight mile. John and Thady Gosden’s Inspiral is a warm favourite at around evens and looks sure to be there at the finish. She bounced back to form at Deauville in August when winning the Prix Jacques Le Marois making it six wins from seven career starts. Whether she deserves to be as short as she is is another matter mind and at the current odds I’m against her. Officially rated a pound behind her main rival here in the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who was a very easy winner in America a month ago having previously chased home the superstar Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Both of those excellent efforts came on fast ground but he has shown winning form earlier in the season on officially good to soft when winning the French 2000 guineas (though Timeform rate the ground as good). He maybe the value bet against the favourite. Simon and Ed Crisford’s Jadoomi has been supplemented for this and is chasing a fourth straight win this season and is only officially rated 7lb behind Modern Games. French challenger The Revenant won this event two years ago and was 4th last season. He would only be on the radar if the ground was to change to very soft (unlikely). I’ll go with the Godolphin runner each way.

 

MODERN GAMES 1 1/2 points each way 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Ascot 4.00

Eight opponents take on the unbeaten Baaeed in this 10F Champions Stakes. This is predominately a no bet race just a sit back and enjoy contest with William Haggas’s Baaeed bowing out following an exceptional career having won all ten of his starts with the last six all being in group one company. It will be a major shock were he not to get the job done having looked better than ever when stepping up to 10F last time when beating Mishriff 6 1/2L. Charlie Appleby’s Adayar is the closest to him in the ratings and he can finish runner up before a trip to the Breeders Cup for the Breeders Cup Turf (for which the current 6/1 looks very tempting). The other seven all have far too much to find and this is Baaeed’s to lose.

 

Ascot 4.30

The most competitive race on the card is the last with the one mile Balmoral Handicap featuring a maximum field of twenty. A case can be made for many of these and currently the bookmakers are betting 7/1 the field. Blue For You, Escobar, Orbaan and Tyrrhenian Sea all tie in together on their York form at the Ebor meeting and all four have claims. William Haggas saddles three runners in the shape of Bashkirova, Sweet Believer and perhaps the most interesting in Montatham. The latter hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field in this race last season at 100/1 but is the galloping companion of Baaeed’s no less so has to be given some respect. Last year’s 2nd and 3rd Symbolize and Magical Morning are back to try and do better and it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were involved in the finish. The horse I like however is David Menuisier’s Migration. Not seen since runner up to Modern Games in the Newbury Spring Cup last April he’s a decent handicapper who loves to get his toe in. His two wins last season were gained over 10F so will be finishing strongly with the jockey booking of William Buick an eye catching one. In a race that is very open he’ll do for me each way with enhanced places.

 

MIGRATION 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

[calva decoy]

Football Saturday afternoon & Boxing Saturday night with the record button hit to watch Racing highlights in-between .

Ascot ( all prices Thursday 2.15pm & all bet365 )

200- NAVAL CROWN 10/1 eway ( 5 ) won the Jersey on soft in 2021 & Platinum Jubilee on good to firm in 2022 , like it here but it's October not June , place claims .

240- ALBAFLORA 20/1 eway ( 4 ) finished 2nd in this race last year behind Eshaada but far better off in weights this time around .

400- DUBAI HONOUR 33/1 eway ( 3 ) was 2nd in this race last year , will very much appreciate the cut , wears 1st time cheekpieces , could be a Haggas 1-2 or 1-3 .

440- SYMBOLISE 16/1 eway ( 6 ) finished 8th in this race in 2020 off a mark of 104 , improved last season finishing 2nd off 102 , is off the same mark on Saturday with claimer taking a further 5Lb off .

125-TRUESHAN 15/8 he's had quite a tough season but likes it here & is looking for hat trick of wins in the race , the more showers before the race the better .

320- INSPIRAL 11/10 , only blip in her career was when she finished 2nd in the Falmouth , looking to be the first filly since Minding in 2016 to win this race & then we get the tears & Frankie announcing his retirement .

TRUESHAN / INSPIRAL Win Double 5.03/1 .

[richard-westwood]

Balmoral hcap ascot 

Tyrennian sea  8.8 15/2 

Bashkirova  8.6  10/1 

Johan 8.4    25/1 

Migration   8.1  

May as well try for a big win........I'll try 10pt wins top 3 and 5pt win doubles top 3 with top 2 in catterick race 

[Darran]

A huge morning in Australia tomorrow with the Caulfield Cup and The Everest at Randwick. My Caulfield Cup preview will follow later but here is my preview for the Everest as Nature Strip bids to win it for the 2nd year running.

 

Nature Strip - He certainly doesn't need any introduction to racing fans in the UK after his demolition job in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot in June. It was a stunning performance and it certainly came as no surprise to me given what he had been doing in Australia over the last few years, which includes winning this race last year. His trainer resisted the temptation of backing him up in the Platinum Jubilee so he would be in peak shape for his defence of this. He had a nice trial at the beginning of last month and then beat 5 of these when taking the G2 The Shorts over 1100m here a month ago. Given his 1^st up record you would have forgiven him if had been beat, but the fact he won so impressively is very noteworthy for me. We know he handles a heavy track and it is hard to see which of his rivals is going to be able to improve past him. The only concern is he has drawn the outside, but it might turn out that you need to be off the rail anyway and he is clearly the best horse in the race.

 

Eduardo - A good horse who has beaten Nature Strip in the past including in The Shorts last year. He then went onto be 3^rd in this before winning a large pot in the Classique at Rosehill. His problem is when he gets to a grand final with Nature Strip, Nature Strip always wins. He was 2^nd to him again in the T J Smith back in April for example. This prep he won the G3 Concorde over 1000m, but was then a bit disappointing when leading in The Shorts and only finished 4th. He's so consistent that it isn't hard to see him finishing in the top 4, but I just don't see how he can beat a top peak Nature Strip.

 

Lost And Running - Was 4^th in this last year at huge odds and went onto finish 2^nd in the Classique to Eduardo before winning a big pot at Newcastle. I think he is coming into the race in better form this year compared to last year as 1^st up he was 3^rd in The Shorts where he had to race wide the whole way with no cover. A couple of weeks ago he won the G2 Premiere over course and distance just getting up to beat Mazu and Masked Crusader. It's hard to see him being good enough to beat Nature Strip, but he could easily improve on his 4^th from last year given there has been plenty to like in his two runs so far this prep.

 

Masked Crusader - Blew his chance in this last year when fluffing the start and he was flying late to only be beaten 0.2L by Nature Strip. He had won the Premiere on his previous start, but that remains his last win. He never really got going in 3 starts in the Autumn and was a bit disappointing. This prep he finished 6^th in The Shorts before finishing 0.42L behind Lost And Running in the Premiere. He came from a long way back that day and did well to finish as close as he did. As much as he was possibly a little unlucky last year I still don't see him being able to beat Nature Strip, but he should be ready to peak 3^rd up and can go well.

 

Mazu - Won 6 on the bounce between October and May when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 at Eagle Farm. Was 5^th in The Shorts and 2^nd in the Premiere in his 2 runs this prep. Clearly improving and his stable knows what it takes to win this race, but he did get the best run last time and I find it hard to see him being good enough to land this.

 

Private Eye - Brings some different form lines into the contest and his peak effort so far was when he took the G1 Epsom over 1600m here last October. He is 4/5 at this distance though and was impressive when winning the G2 Gilgai at Flemington a couple of weeks ago on his first run of the prep. This is harder though and I would be surprised if he was a good enough sprinter to beat the likes of Nature Strip.

 

Overpass - Decent sprinter although he has struggled on the whole when against top class horses. He did manage to chase Nature Strip home in The Shorts, but then could only finish 6^th in the Premiere last time. Chances are the ground was too heavy for him that day and he hasn't even hit the frame in 4 starts on a heavy track so chances are he will struggle again here in the testing ground.

 

Ingratiating - Godolphin hadn't filled their spot in the race until earlier in the week and they have decided to take this horse who finished 2^nd over 1100m in a G2 at Caulfield last week. He's a useful enough horse but his big odds are a reflection of the sort of task he faces here.

 

Joyful Fortune - Has clocked some fast times in Hong Kong and bolted up on his Australian debut at Flemington a month ago. The problem is that was just a BM70 contest and as much as a winning margin of 4.25L is impressive in any sprint contest, it would be a massive shock if he went from that to beating the worlds best sprinter.

 

Shades Of Rose - Hard to knock any horse who has won 7 of their 9 starts. She finished 2^nd in one and her saddle slipped in the other. She is clearly progressive and made the leap from handicap company to win a G2 at Rosehill last month where she made all and just held on. Impossible to know where her ceiling is and she could well be capable of out running her odds, but hard to see her being capable of winning at this stage of her career.

 

Jacquinot - Was 3^rd and 6^th in the big 2yo races at Caulfield and Rosehill in the Autumn and looks to have improved on that as a 3yo this prep. He won a G3 at Caulfield 1^st up in August and then landed the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill 3 weeks ago over 1400m. Was 10^th passing the 400m marker so the visuals back up the times as he finished very fast to get up. He is drawn in 2 which might not help him given his running style although he is clearly progressive and it will be interesting to see how he gets on against the seasoned sprinters.

 

Giga Kick - Has only had 4 starts, but has won all 4 starting off with a maiden win at Sale in February. He then won a handicap at Flemington before landing a G3 at Caulfield the following month. 2 weeks ago, he stepped up to G2 company by taking the Danehill at Flemington over 1100m and clearly it is impossible to know how good he might be. Obviously this is by far the hardest race he has been in and he is an interesting contender.

 

Verdict - Whilst this isn't a G1 it clearly is in all but name and a few of these are stepping up into this sort of company for the 1^st time, but I think they will be hoping Nature Strip under performs or struggles from his draw to beat him. Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the world, he looked superb at Royal Ascot and again in The Shorts he looked very comfortable. I'm not sure it matters where he is drawn and it could even be an advantage to not be on the rail anyway given likely ground conditions. It could be argued he is in career best form and at the very least he is still at the peak of his powers and I think he looks a cracking bet even at a shade of odds on. There has been plenty to like in Lost And Running's two runs this prep and he looks to be going better than he was when 4^th in this last year so I will take him to follow Nature Strip home. Masked Crusader should be able to go well again and given how impressive Jacquinot was in the Golden Rose last time I will take him to finish 4th.

 

Nature Strip @ 10/11 with William Hill

Lost And Running

Masked Crusader

Jacquinot

[black rabbit]

Momtatham   4 40 Asc/         1/20 th of a pt ew   22/1 

Vintage Clarets   3 15 Catt/   1/10 th of a pt win    9/1 

Castle Star     2 00 Asc/         1/20th of a pt ew   28/1

Checkandchallange  3 20 Asc/   1/20 th 0f a pt ew    20/1

Waterville     1 25  Asc/             1/10 th 0f a pt win    5/1

Bay Bridge   4 00 Asc/           1/20 of a pt win    10/1

Eshaad        2 40 Asc/             1/20 of a pt win     15/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  160,55 pts

Edited October 15, 2022 by black rabbit

[Villa Chris]

If I was a big punter I think I’d be going big on Gin Coco in the 1.10 at Newton Abbot. Available at 10/11 . I might try and double him up if price holds up well enough .

Edited October 14, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Darran]

For the 2nd year running there are no European trained horses in the Caulfield Cup as Racing Victoria's rules continue to limit the amount travelling to Victoria for the Spring Carnival. There has been a lot of rain in Victoria this week causing a few race tracks to be flooded and whilst Caufield didn't miss it the track has taken the rain well. Chances are we will still be in the Heavy range, but they do think the ground will continue to improve so it might sneak into the Soft range by the time the Caulfield Cup gets underway at 5.10pm Australian time (7.10am here). I will take a look at horses who I think have winning chances.

The obvious place to start is the favourite Smokin' Romans. He comes here in flying form having won the G3 Naturalism here over 2000m and then landing the G1 Turnbull at Flemington two weeks ago. Those 2 wins came on a Heavy 8 and a Good 3 so he clearly handles any type of surface. I thought he was especially gutsy here as he had to fight for the win and then at Flemington it was a more comfortable success. The worry I have is that both races saw no horses come from off the pace and whilst that might end up being the same here it is enough to put me off at a short price. He does have a good draw though and has no weight so he has a clear chance of landing a hat-trick. Knights Order was the horse who set the steady tempo in the Turnbull and he ended up finishing 4th. He will likely attempt to front run again as he always does, but he has to get across from stall 18 which as Pat Cosgrave showed on Best Solution in 2018 isn't impossible to win from, but he's going to have to use up a fair bit of energy to get across and that isn't going to help his chances. Quite a few of these ran in the Turnbull and now Gold Trip might be the one who does the best. He showed good form whilst trained in France and has put in three solid races in Australia which includes a 3rd and 5th behind Smokin' Romans the last twice. Up in trip to 2400m will help him in my view.

Montefilia ran really well in this race last year to finish 4th and she is a top class horse on her day as she showed when beating Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet at Rosehill in March. She was 3rd at Randwick last time when connections blamed the ground. It was a slightly strange excuse as she has won on worse ground, but I think quite a few horses didn't enjoy what the ground was at Randwick that day and it should be more suitable here. She has place claims.

Nonconformist was 2nd in the race last year, but I thought he came into the race in much better form which is a worry about his chances in the race this year. There was a bit more promise in the Caulfield Stakes last time and this is his first time back in a handicap since last year's Caulfield Cup.

No Compromise has been building his form nicely as the prep has gone on for this and he landed the the G1 Metropolitan at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I thought that was a really good performance especially as he suffered a baulk at a key stage. His form at this trip is really good as well and I think he has place claims at least.

He was 6th on his previous start in the Kingston Town at Randwick over 2000m and that means he was behind Alegron and Benaud who were 1st and 2nd that day. I think that is a key piece of form leading into this. Those two have prior history as well as Benaud was in front of him in the ATC Derby when they were 2nd and 3rd so chances are there won't be much between them here either. For me Benaud showed the strength of the form when he was 6th in the Caulfield Stakes last week when finishing only 2.45L behind Anamoe. The problem Beanaud has here though is that he is drawn in 20 and for that reason I prefer Alegron who should be able to sit nearer the pace from 14. 

The other one worth mentioning for me is Vow And Declare the Melbourne Cup winner from 2019. He has found it tough on the whole since then, but he has come back this prep looking in really good form. He was 3rd in a handicap at Flemington over 2500m last month and then a couple of weeks ago finished a fast finishing 5th after not getting a clear run up the straight. The slight concern is if he will have enough pace over 2400m, but he is a big price and I can see him staying on strongly again to possibly hit the frame.

Verdict - With a couple of bookies offering 5 places I think we are getting some cracking e/w value with only 3 horses in single figures. Knights Order isn't going to find things easy to get to the lead from his draw and as much as Smokin' Romans has an obvious chance I just wonder if the way the races were run suited him the last twice and if things pan out differently here then he could be vulnerable. He is clearly potentially well handicapped though so it might not matter. Beanaud also has a poor draw so I am happy to pass him over as well. 

I'm going to take 3 e/w against the field. No Compromise for me looks a good chance to follow up his Metropolitan win last time and looks a big price at 18/1. Alegron could well uphold the form with Benaud especially as he has a better draw and I'm a bit surprised he is a bigger price than him. Vow And Declare was tempting as he's a big price and he could well run a nice prep for the Melbourne Cup, but Montefilia is the other one I will be backing. I am happy to pass over the run last time on bad ground at Randwick and she ran well in this last year so could do so again as I don't think the race is any stronger.

No Compromise e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred 5 places

Alegron e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places

Montefilia e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places

[Tedthewolf]

Balmoral hcap ascot 

Like a dart player i  will use 3 arrows to chuck at this all e/w bog 6places.

SYMBOLISE 12/1 crap price wouldn"t want to take any shorter with any luck it will drift a bit  goes well in this  and should run its race again.

MAGICAL MORNING 25/1 last years third  good app on to  really like this horses chances and 25/1 is a cracking e/w price unlike above horse who is a mealey 12's. Looks value e/w in the race to me!

RHOSCOLYN 16/1 I am convinced this horse will be up a big handicap soon although  running out of time for this season  i have had a small anti post bet at 40's and gone in again at 16's .Has not won at a mile but gone very close  so i'm happy enough with that. Really good race this looking forward to it.

 

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

245 catt 

Zip  8.4  14/1 

Wobwobwob   8.2 13/2 

It just takes time 7.9 

Muntadab    7.9 

Not much flat left ...lets go 10pt ew top 2 

Zip as low as 6/1 joint fav !!

[kensland]

Ascot. 

Single. 

2.40. Albaflora.         25/1... unpl 

Double. 

5.00. Ascot. Kinross       5/1...... 1st 

4.25. Catt. Sweet Fantasy.           6/1.        4th 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited October 15, 2022 by kensland

[Zilzalian]

VALUE- Quickthorn (by my numbers should be around fav) posted an incredible speed figure two starts ago and then murdered himself in france 14/1 is the risk offset for him not having recovered but short memories cost £££'s. the odds against for Inspiral should inspire the big hitters surely this gg should be 1/3. Castle star although a 3yo (i think they are not as good this year) is worth a tickle at around 20/1, and Graffard could well have a day to remember with the revenant and sweet lady. chuck in a mugs double, sweet lady and sweet believer. Baeed getting beat???????? on speed figures not much chance of that happening unless the ground and trip gets him small fc/tc against the baeed/adayar maybe. I missed out that Marquand might have a good day.

Edited October 15, 2022 by Zilzalian

[fd1972uk]

Quite a few for today, used up some free bets and also used some offers.

Be watching the footy ao not much time then, but after a few qualifier bets maybe mean more bets later in the day, but currently went 

Trebles

New 1310 gin coco, asc 1520 inspiral and 1600 baaeed

Ascot treble

Trueshan, eternal pearl and baaed

 

Also used pp ascot free bet offer so went with Coltrane at 1325 and adayar at 1600.

B365 itv offer (also doing a free bet today which I haven't used yet)

Emily upjohn, currently 5/1 on special

Dbl

New 1345 planned paradise and asc 1400 Kinross

Mar 1317 free handshake and cattle 1550 motawaazy

 

Good luck all.

[The Equaliser]

14 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Zip as low as 6/1 joint fav !!

Michael @MCLARKErecently almost convinced me that when one gets a market edge like this then, even if the horse loses, one should feel content about striking a value bet. Still not sure about that.  Good luck with this one, it is now trading at 5/1 and I suspect that the value has now gone   

[MCLARKE]

14 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Michael @MCLARKErecently almost convinced me that when one gets a market edge like this then, even if the horse loses, one should feel content about striking a value bet. Still not sure about that.  Good luck with this one, it is now trading at 5/1 and I suspect that the value has now gone   

If you consistently beat the SP you will make a profit. It's about finding value, not winners. It's easy to find winners, not so easy to find value.

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

ASCO	1.25	Waterville (8)	5/1
ASCO	3.20	Modern Games (8)	4/1
ASCO	4.00	Adayar (6)	6/1

[azzybear]

vin rouge 140 ontherouge 1.52 Kinross 2.00 gaileick coast 2.27 stay alert 2.40 

[azzybear]

american sniper 1.10 ew

[Villa Chris]

2.27 Market Rasen 

Big Bad Bear 9.45 8/1 

Zanza 9.45 11/2 

Haafapiece 9.01 16/1

Harbour Lake 8.45 15/8 

Big Bad Bear should come on from his reappearance run last month and his trainer is in good form . Zanza is potentially thrown in here but pulled up several times earlier in the year but two of those were in chases that stretched his stamina. Haafapiece goes very well fresh and is back on a winning mark.  Harbour Lake is unexposed and could be better than his mark and rating so will be dangerous at a short price 

I’ll split my stakes and go 3 points win joint top rated 

[Villa Chris]

Market Rasen 3.37 

Tamaroc Du Mathan 9.45 7/2

Guy 8.9 3/1 

Kiltearly Briggs 8.9 7/1

Killer Clown 8.7 4/1 

Top rated is a little bit clear of the rest and is probably the class horse in the race if ready to go . Not much between the rest in what is a competitive race . 
 

5 points win top rated 

[Villa Chris]

Newton Abbot 2.20 

Umbrigado 9.1 4/1

Time To Tinker 8.65 7/1

Grace A Vous Enki 8.45 4/1

Mr Yeats 8.4 5/2

 Top rated was beaten well by Mr Yeats last time out but is 13Ibs better off with that run under his belt so may prove to strong this time. Time To Tinker and Grace both come from the Nicholls yard who are going strong and you’d like to think at least one of them will go very close . 
 

5 points win Umbrigado 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +5.42

Edited October 15, 2022 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Balmoral Handicap (Ascot 4.40)

Not drawn 1-11, 1 from 87

Not in the top 12 in the weights, 1 from 71

This leaves 6, TYRRHENIAN SEA, JOHAN, STORMY ANTARTIC, MONTATHAM, SHELIR and RHOSCOLYN

Odds > 14/1, 0 from 102

This leaves TYRRHENIAN SEA at 11/1 (5 places) or 10/1 (6 places) BOG

[calva decoy]

Those good folk from bet365 have given me a free £5 bet at Ascot today .

240 ETERNAL PEARL 5/1 .

[MCLARKE]

15 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Those good folk from bet365 have given me a free £5 bet at Ascot today .

Me too. Plus a free £5 bet on the Liverpool / Man City match, £5 bet credits and £7.50 from their Goals Giveaway offer. £22.50 freebies without having to do anything. Best bookie by miles for me but others obviously have a different experience.

[The Equaliser]

Loads of racing today

1.25 Asc Trueshan 7/4

3.20 Asc Inspiral 6/4

1 x 5 pt win Double = poss return of 34.36

Savers and singles

1.25 Asc Quickthorn 0.30 ew at 11/1 @Zilzalian

2.00 Asc Creative Force 1.10 at 6.0 and Garrus 0.30 ew at 22/1 Both @The Brigadier

2.40 Asc Eternal Pearl 1 pt win at 6.2, Sweet Lady 0.30 ew at 11/1 and Albafora 0.30 ew at 20/1 @calva decoy@kensland

3.20 Asc Modern Games 1.20 win at 5.4 (saver)

4.40 Asc Bashkirova 1 pt win at 9.2 @richard-westwoodand Symbolize 0.30ew at 12/1 @Tedthewolf @calva decoy.  Can't do too many as would make a loss if I did

2.20 N Abb Valentino 1 pt win at 4.6

3.37 M/Ras Tamaroc Du Mathan 1 pt win at 5.11

Total stakes = 14.30

Good luck to all today.

Let's hope that Baaeed beats Adayar by over 5 lengths today to go down in history for us racing fans

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Disappointing day for the classy events at Ascot; even Baaeed got beat at 1/4.  I thought I had my bases covered in the 3.20 after the gutsy performance by Trueshan in the first.  Unusual for two top notch horses to get beat.  Although a blank day for me I guess the connections of the fancied horses must be feeling very glum indeed.  -14.30 makes my MTD -49.97 & YTD -223.95

Kempton and Sedgefield go later with some class racing afoot.  May possibly find a race or two to bet on

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[maxironchin]

Trueshan! Crikey what a battle!

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Newton Abbot 2.20 

Umbrigado 9.1 4/1

Time To Tinker 8.65 7/1

Grace A Vous Enki 8.45 4/1

Mr Yeats 8.4 5/2

 Top rated was beaten well by Mr Yeats last time out but is 13Ibs better off with that run under his belt so may prove to strong this time. Time To Tinker and Grace both come from the Nicholls yard who are going strong and you’d like to think at least one of them will go very close . 
 

5 points win Umbrigado 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +5.42

Umbrigado wins at 5/1  returns 25 points profit 

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

2.27 Market Rasen 

Big Bad Bear 9.45 8/1 

Zanza 9.45 11/2 

Haafapiece 9.01 16/1

Harbour Lake 8.45 15/8 

Big Bad Bear should come on from his reappearance run last month and his trainer is in good form . Zanza is potentially thrown in here but pulled up several times earlier in the year but two of those were in chases that stretched his stamina. Haafapiece goes very well fresh and is back on a winning mark.  Harbour Lake is unexposed and could be better than his mark and rating so will be dangerous at a short price 

I’ll split my stakes and go 3 points win joint top rated 

Big Bad Bear finishes second beaten 3/4 of a length by the favourite Harbour Lake. Good run . Zanza gassed out again. 

[richard-westwood]

On 10/13/2022 at 11:13 PM, richard-westwood said:

245 catt 

Zip  8.4  14/1 5th

Wobwobwob   8.2 13/2 1st

It just takes time 7.9 2nd 

Muntadab    7.9 

Not much flat left ...lets go 10pt ew top 2 

Gotta be honest I was expecting zip to win today but all 3 finished in top 5....returns off both .... and the doubles still on so rock n roll ....cmon my beauty's!!!

Edited October 15, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Gotta be honest I was expecting zip to win today but all 3 finished in top 5....returns off both .... and the doubles still on so rock n roll ....cmon my beauty's!!!

Yes I thought Zip would be your likely winner with drop in grade and soft ground. Well done ?