RACING CHAT - SEPTEMBER 4TH

[black rabbit]

 Bay breeze  -  2 20 yrk/     1/10  pt win   25/1

Mr carpenter  -   4 40 yrk/    1/10  pt win    22/1

 

 

 

P/L    + 155. 20

Edited September 4, 2022 by black rabbit
selection

[Gary66]

4-40 York the flying ginger was 3rd in a class 1 in June this is class 4 totally out of form but you can't have everything at 25s can't see it being 25s come off time  gazza

[kensland]

Fontwell. 

Double. 

2.05. Midnight Legacy.       13/8

3.50. Call me Tara.               2/1

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

[Tedthewolf]

 4.40 York  25/1 e/w bog 4 the flying ginge 25/1 bog 5 places

A big price because of recent form much better than that & now on a really handy mark and can bounce back to form so well worth an e/w bet at a very big looking price imho.

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

ÌOff work so fun bets today .....changing tack slightly ...I noticed at york that the reason results were crap last time was a seemingly huge draw bias to low draws over sprints so I've rated low draws bottom 6 

220 york 

Aleezdancer   8.6 class 50 9/2 

Lucky man  8.4  class 50 6/1 

The organiser   8.0  class 32 

 

Fav is drawn high so I'll go 10pt wins on low drawn best 2 

[Tedthewolf]

17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

ÌOff work so fun bets today .....changing tack slightly ...I noticed at york that the reason results were crap last time was a seemingly huge draw bias to low draws over sprints so I've rated low draws bottom 6 

220 york 

Aleezdancer   8.6 class 50 9/2 

Lucky man  8.4  class 50 6/1 

The organiser   8.0  class 32 

 

Fav is drawn high so I'll go 10pt wins on low drawn best 2 

The organiser has been very well supported was  20/1 when markets opened  last night.  

[richard-westwood]

Same again low draws 

Fast response  8.0 class 39 10/1 

Mytilda    7.7  class 33 16/1 

Let's have some fun 10pt ew both ?

 

[richard-westwood]

2 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

The organiser has been very well supported was  20/1 when markets opened  last night.  

These,are just fun speculative bets .....it was just something I noticed when wondering why results were so bad at york .....probably all high draws now ??...but a bit of sunday fun nonetheless 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

ÌOff work so fun bets today .....changing tack slightly ...I noticed at york that the reason results were crap last time was a seemingly huge draw bias to low draws over sprints so I've rated low draws bottom 6 

220 york 

Aleezdancer   8.6 class 50 9/2 

Lucky man  8.4  class 50 6/1 

The organiser   8.0  class 32 

 

Fav is drawn high so I'll go 10pt wins on low drawn best 2 

Good luck with these.  Are your class ratings based upon winning prize money or total earnings including placed money or something else? Just been looking at Van Der Whiel ratings with a supposed twist by Michael Wilding at Race Advisor.  His race cards are free and seem to offer an excellent insight into a horse's strengths in winning a race.  Have you used his racecards?  I am interested if you have a view on them.  Indeed, if any PL members or viewers have a view on the racecards as a useful tool during horse racing research

Edited September 4, 2022 by The Equaliser

[cannotbebeat]

York
2.20 Pink Crystal 4/1

2.55 Gale Force Maya 11/5

3.30 Signora Camacho 3/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[Ironjoe]

+8pts

York 2.20 pink crystal 4/1

York 2.55 primo bacio 3/1

Longchamp 3.33 west wind blows 9/4

All 1 point wins 

?

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with these.  Are your class ratings based upon winning prize money or total earnings including placed money or something else? Just been looking at Van Der Whiel ratings with a supposed twist by Michael Wilding at Race Advisor.  His race cards are free and seem to offer an excellent insight into a horse's strengths in winning a race.  Have you used his racecards?  I am interested if you have a view on them.  Indeed, if any PL members or viewers have a view on the racecards as a useful tool during horse racing research

The class rating is course adjustment with a class rating I.e for class 2 then adjusted for lengths down etc ...its a generalised thing more like a guideline but it seems very accurate....its thrown up some really big priced winners in past by itself so having it as a guide is a big plus 

[kroni]

Longchamp

1215 - Bolshkinov @ 9/4 Bet365

1245 - Big Call @ 11/1 e-w Bet365

130 - Best Of Lips @ 9/1 e-w Bet365

248 - The Revenant @ 10/3 Betfair  /  Goldistyle @ 16/1 e-w Bet365

333 - Epic Poet @ 9/2 e-w Bet365 (betboost)  /  Jouza @ 16/1 e-w Bet365

408 - Susu's Dimples @ 3/1 Bet365

[Ironjoe]

1 hour ago, Ironjoe said:

+8pts

York 2.20 pink crystal 4/1

York 2.55 primo bacio 3/1

Longchamp 3.33 west wind blows 9/4

All 1 point wins 

?

Having a 1pt double on frankies pair at baden baden at 3/1ish as well

4 points staked total

[maxironchin]

14.55 York

Gale Force Maya 2pt Win

Good form in C1 and C2 races. Well weighted.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with these.  Are your class ratings based upon winning prize money or total earnings including placed money or something else? Just been looking at Van Der Whiel ratings with a supposed twist by Michael Wilding at Race Advisor.  His race cards are free and seem to offer an excellent insight into a horse's strengths in winning a race.  Have you used his racecards?  I am interested if you have a view on them.  Indeed, if any PL members or viewers have a view on the racecards as a useful tool during horse racing research

I use the RA but only to export the basic data. I've tried using all the other data he produces but never been able to find a profitable angle from any of it.

[The Equaliser]

Possibly a tough day

Font 2.05 Midnight Legacy 7/4 (my PL Nap) @The Brigadier@kensland@Craggwood@Quartu SE

3.30 Yk Dare To Hope 9/4

3.50 Font Call Me Tara 15/8 @Tumbleweed King@kensland@Xtc12

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 pts poss return of 51.86

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2.20 YK Pink Crystal 1 pt win at 5.8 @Ironjoe@TVY Has to overcome a bad draw though

2.55 YK Lampang 0.30 ew at 16/1 @PercyP and Black Rod 0.60 win at 9/1

5.15 Yk Lullaby Bay 0.30 ew at 12/1

2.05 Font Midnight Legacy 4 pts win at 2.94 Cogital 0.60 win at 9/2

11.40 stakes today

Just realised that I shouldn't have napped Midnight Legacy as other Napsters have it as their bet today.  It is probably best I leave it as I'm not sure what would happen if I changed it under the new rules

Good luck everyone

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

Got a bit confused looking at Race Advisor cards.  I felt misled under the heading "does xxx horse suit this race" Strength, Going, Distance, Class and Race Type.  I checked out a lot runners and the results were very inconsistent.  One bit that was consistent was the graph showing if a horse was improving.  For example Catch Cunningham winner of the 5.15 was clearly shown as improving along with most of the placed horses.  Oddly enough Fast Response which was @richard-westwood's selection was shown to be not improving and performing negatively.  This was wrong as it only got beat by half a length. I may open the race cards from now on to look at the graphs.  Also might use the cards to look at Race Advisors Four Minute Form Review (FMFR) as I can whittle down the race types by using a filter.

Anyway, My nap won and I had all bases covered so effectively broke even wit a 0.2 profit.  My MTD is now +23.13 and YTD is -273.44

Nothing doing at Brighton for me tomorrow, all class 5 and 6 races.  Only one race at Newcastle and that has a 6/4 favourite which leave the two jump meetings at Newton Abbot and Perth which have some class 4 and upwards races.

Edited September 4, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Just realised that I shouldn't have napped Midnight Legacy as other Napsters have it as their bet today.  It is probably best I leave it as I'm not sure what would happen if I changed it under the new rules

It's quite clear.

• 1 bet per day, Max. If a member posts twice the earliest one will count towards the competition unless it is a non runner

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

ÌOff work so fun bets today .....changing tack slightly ...I noticed at york that the reason results were crap last time was a seemingly huge draw bias to low draws over sprints so I've rated low draws bottom 6 

220 york 

Aleezdancer   8.6 class 50 9/2 

Lucky man  8.4  class 50 6/1 

The organiser   8.0  class 32 

 

Fav is drawn high so I'll go 10pt wins on low drawn best 2 

Over the last 5 years you would have made a profit just by backing horses drawn 2 to 7 in handicaps at York

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

ÌOff work so fun bets today .....changing tack slightly ...I noticed at york that the reason results were crap last time was a seemingly huge draw bias to low draws over sprints so I've rated low draws bottom 6 

220 york 

Aleezdancer   8.6 class 50 9/2 

Lucky man  8.4  class 50 6/1 

The organiser   8.0  class 32 

 

Fav is drawn high so I'll go 10pt wins on low drawn best 2 

1st and 3rd ...+50..00...

[Trotter]

Guineas and St James winner Coroebus fatally injured in a fall at Longchamp ......... 

 

[azzybear]

sister Sophie 5.00

[black rabbit]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

Guineas and St James winner Coroebus fatally injured in a fall at Longchamp ......... 

 

very sad ?

[azzybear]

riversway 5.15

[Zilzalian]

3yolds getting turned over again in france G1

[Tedthewolf]

18 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

 4.40 York  25/1 e/w bog 4 the flying ginge 25/1 bog 5 places

A big price because of recent form much better than that & now on a really handy mark and can bounce back to form so well worth an e/w bet at a very big looking price imho.

 

 

 

Tried  to steal the race  and hung on for a place. Decent run.

[richard-westwood]

8 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Same again low draws 

Fast response  8.0 class 39 10/1 

Mytilda    7.7  class 33 16/1 

Let's have some fun 10pt ew both ?

 

Fast ew ....Good runs today finished around +40.00 on the day 

[fd1972uk]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

Tried  to steal the race  and hung on for a place. Decent run.

Well done, had a little ew on it too.

Also galw force maya win, bit unfortunately had corebeus, sad foe the horse but another reason why I need to stop backing over there, can never find a winner, now things like this.

[ipswich45]

Dettori been given a 14 day ban today at Baden Baden   for breaking whip limits