Tennis Tips - May 9 - May 15

[amity]

Quite some comeback from Jabeur! 

A set and 5-2 down and she battles back and cruises home in the third! Phew! ??

[neilovan]

3 minutes ago, amity said:

Quite some comeback from Jabeur! 

A set and 5-2 down and she battles back and cruises home in the third! Phew! ??

I had written it off as a loss. Insane. I don't know if that shadow over the court puts everyone off a bit. Jabeur seemed to play better when the shadow moved away. I'm keeping an eye on Clair Lui who won again today.  She has too much class for that field.

 

ANy opions on the Kasatkina match?

Edited May 13, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Kasatkina is one of the least readable players for me. I always seem to watch her when she's absolutely dreadful!

 

[neilovan]

4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Kasatkina is one of the least readable players for me. I always seem to watch her when she's absolutely dreadful!

 

Form has been very good on clay. She has real talent but is very inconsistent, with a good record against the top 25 (from 2018 about 7w 9l). I'm thinking a perfect style matchup, because Tiechmann just can't hurt her, and definitely won't overpower her.

I'm def going Bonzi, Kanepi (on now) with, Kasatkina, Djoko, Swiatek (tomorrow) as a 5 legged freak.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Good grief, have you ever seen anything like the Jabeur v Sakkari match. Sakkari is a set and 2 breaks up. Was actually serving at set up 5-2 and 30-0 and manages to lose. Just insane, though I am not complaining. 

 

Me neither. These days, after many years of doing this, I try to take the rough with the smooth and treat them just the same. Jabeur coming back was good for my outright, but on another day I might have been on Sakkari and I'd be ruing her collapse. And on another day, I will be on a player like Sakkari who should win but ends up losing.

[neilovan]

3 minutes ago, Torque said:

Me neither. These days, after many years of doing this, I try to take the rough with the smooth and treat them just the same. Jabeur coming back was good for my outright, but on another day I might have been on Sakkari and I'd be ruing her collapse. And on another day, I will be on a player like Sakkari who should win but ends up losing.

I was messing about and  I clicked on cashout  in the Kasatkina match. Made a little because of Kanepi, but blew a potential profit.

Regarding the above, I hear you. I remember C Alcaraz getting beaten by Hugo Gaston (last year), which was pretty similar to Sakkari today, so I was owed some luck.

[CzechPunter]

It's Zverev Tsitsipas yet again tomorrow, lol! Tsitsipas crushed Zverev in Monte Carlo, then lost in Madrid. He was very close to losing against Dimitrov, should've lost that one, even, but I still somehow think he's going to win tomorrow. Not touching him at those odds, though!

[neilovan]

38 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

It's Zverev Tsitsipas yet again tomorrow, lol! Tsitsipas crushed Zverev in Monte Carlo, then lost in Madrid. He was very close to losing against Dimitrov, should've lost that one, even, but I still somehow think he's going to win tomorrow. Not touching him at those odds, though!

If I look at my tennis betting over a year, there are a few weird patterns that you see;

1) It is almost impossible to find 3 winners in a treble at odds of 1.7+

2) 75% of a 128 draw field (96 players out of 128) have lost after 2 rounds, and the better players are doing the majority of the winning here. SO look at players who win a high percentage of 1st round matches, as well as those who are losing the majority of their matches in the 1st/2nd round. Obviously a nice matchup is somebody that wins a lot versus someone who loses a lot.

3) As you get to 3rd round and beyond, it becomes tricky. Average players who get this far are doing something right this week. So for me, later rounds are far more tricky than early rounds.

4) A question. Can you make money taking low priced doubles? Basically taking a tiny % of players and backing them almost every time they step one the court, in the early rounds of big tournaments. I think you can.  If you would back Djoko and Alcaraz as a double in every early round match they play, I think you win over a year. If you would take the top 10 (ATP), and take 5 doubles in the 1st and 2nd round of every big draw tournament, you would make money.

5) One of the biggest traps we face is something called the favorite longshot-bias. We tend to overvalue "longshots" and relatively undervalue favorites and it costs us in losses.

 

Lol I just saw that Tiechmann retired and Bonzi lost, so I turned a profit instead of laying an egg. 

 

I think Auger-Aliasimme gets demolished by Djoko. Sure, he's been working hard on clay. Physically he looks in brilliant shape, but his game is just so limited (when compared to really talented players), with no finesse or variety.  Perfect matchup for Djoko here.

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

It's Zverev Tsitsipas yet again tomorrow, lol! Tsitsipas crushed Zverev in Monte Carlo, then lost in Madrid. He was very close to losing against Dimitrov, should've lost that one, even, but I still somehow think he's going to win tomorrow. Not touching him at those odds, though!

I d go with an over on games on that one , or zverev taking a set

[Torque]

I'm going back in on Djokovic and also adding a play on Tsitsipas. Djokovic looks really focussed and got past FAA easily enough despite a wobble serving for the match, and like others I think Tsitsipas gets the better of Sascha this time around.

 

40pts Djokovic to win ATP Rome @ 1.76 Betfair Exchange

25pts Tsitsipas to win ATP Rome @ 4.50 Boyles

[Foo_Fighter]

Tsitsipas ?? leads 7-4 in the head-to-head against Zverev ??

The German won their most recent encounter at last week's Madrid Open in three sets.

I know the high altitude helped Zverev in Madrid, but Sascha is hitting the ball very well in Rome as well, so I'm going with him taking at least one set today. I think he can also win the match, reach the big final and even beat Novak in the end. 

[neilovan]

I thought Auger Aliasimme played really well yesterday, but Djoko was fantastic (and I don't like him). He hit the ball incredibly, took his chances and countered power with more power. Excellent, high quality match. I don't think Ruud poses a similar challenge to Aliasimme, and I think Djoko wins in straight sets.

[Torque]

20 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I thought Auger Aliasimme played really well yesterday, but Djoko was fantastic (and I don't like him). He hit the ball incredibly, took his chances and countered power with more power. Excellent, high quality match. I don't think Ruud poses a similar challenge to Aliasimme, and I think Djoko wins in straight sets.

I'll be hoping you're right @neilovan 

[neilovan]

11 minutes ago, Torque said:

I'll be hoping you're right @neilovan 

If Djoko plays like this he is basically unbeatable. Got everything. Serve is soo good when he needs it. His ability to hit that two handed backhand is amazing, and his court coverage is incredible.

Just gotta see the French open draw, and if him and Alcaraz are in different main sections you can call it for the final. Even for the 1st 4 rounds you can probably take Djoko/Alcaraz/Swiatek as a treble in every round, and come the quarters they will all be in the draw. Each of them are unbelievably difficult to beat.

 

Edited May 14, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

I like both stefanos and novak, but from what I ve seen untill now, djokovic just has the clearly higher level(IMO tsitsipas is worse this year on clay than he was last year plus that he seemed so drained at the end of the zverev match).novak's ball striking seems to be at it's best again and I just can t see tsistsipas hanging with him consistently in rallies. It's just djokovic's focus that needs to hold up and get that win.

[neilovan]

I think there a a few matches worth taking today.

Djoko looks very good. Only issue is a mental one, where he loses a little focus ... but as for hitting the ball, he looks great. For me the key matchup is backhand cross court, where the Tsitsipas (1 handed) backhand will not hold up. Djoko too consistent, patient, powerful and accurate here. Just for fun, go and find a youtube video of Djoko doing backhand rotations with a medicine ball (https://www.facebook.com/TennisLegendOfficial/videos/novak-djokovic-medecine-ball-workout/10153373516061806/). Holy cow ... Crazy strong, I get tired from watching him. Djoko will pound him into the ground there, and will win a relatively close match.

Jabeur is on borrowed time in this tournament. Should have been beaten by Sakkari, and even yesterday Kasatkina was serving at 5-4 deciding set. Kasatkina gave it away dropping serve twice in a row and losing 7-5 in the decider. Jabeur probably quite tired, after two 3 setters in a row, while Swiatek comes into this match fresh, after a 6-1 6-2 demolition of Sabalenka. For me this match is an absolute no-contest. Swiatek will move better, serve better, hit the ball better, and be stronger mentally and fresher physically. First set is probably crucial, but when Swiatek wins it, there is NO WAY that Jabeur can come back (of course the odds will be miniscule).

I don't like the starting -5.5 handicap, but if/when Swiatek wins the 1st set, the 2nd may just be one way traffic (so maybe an inplay bet here). I would be going Swiatek in 2 sets (1.5).

As mentioned before I see Claire Lui is in the final of the WTA in Paris, played Haddad Maia. I am happy with a smallish bet on her winning here (at odds of even money).

I'll take her as a single and Djoko and Swiatek as a double.

I'm off to play tennis (8.30 am kickoff). 4 tough sets of doubles, then some breakfast with the guys. Weather looks perfect. Great morning ahead ?

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Liu actually lost against Haddad not that long ago, but it was a tight match and the conditions seem to suit her better here. Let's hope she gets her revenge!

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I think there a a few matches worth taking today.

Djoko looks very good. Only issue is a mental one, where he loses a little focus ... but as for hitting the ball, he looks great. For me the key matchup is backhand cross court, where the Tsitsipas (1 handed) backhand will not hold up. Djoko too consistent, patient, powerful and accurate here. Just for fun, go and find a youtube video of Djoko doing backhand rotations with a medicine ball (https://www.facebook.com/TennisLegendOfficial/videos/novak-djokovic-medecine-ball-workout/10153373516061806/). Holy cow ... Crazy strong, I get tired from watching him. Djoko will pound him into the ground there, and will win a relatively close match.

Jabeur is on borrowed time in this tournament. Should have been beaten by Sakkari, and even yesterday Kasatkina was serving at 5-4 deciding set. Kasatkina gave it away dropping serve twice in a row and losing 7-5 in the decider. Jabeur probably quite tired, after two 3 setters in a row, while Swiatek comes into this match fresh, after a 6-1 6-2 demolition of Sabalenka. For me this match is an absolute no-contest. Swiatek will move better, serve better, hit the ball better, and be stronger mentally and fresher physically. First set is probably crucial, but when Swiatek wins it, there is NO WAY that Jabeur can come back (of course the odds will be miniscule).

I don't like the starting -5.5 handicap, but if/when Swiatek wins the 1st set, the 2nd may just be one way traffic (so maybe an inplay bet here). I would be going Swiatek in 2 sets (1.5).

As mentioned before I see Claire Lui is in the final of the WTA in Paris, played Haddad Maia. I am happy with a smallish bet on her winning here (at odds of even money).

I'll take her as a single and Djoko and Swiatek as a double.

I'm off to play tennis (8.30 am kickoff). 4 tough sets of doubles, then some breakfast with the guys. Weather looks perfect. Great morning ahead ?

 

I will do the same as you except playing 4 sets of doubles.

[Foo_Fighter]

Alexei Popyrin to beat Quentin Halys at 2.00 with bet365

Both players have had a great week in Bordeaux reaching the final. However, Popyrin's wins were more convincing and came against stronger opponents compared to Quentin's. The Aussie is surely a tough nut to crack and I think Halys will fail to lift the trophy in front of his home crowd. 

Good luck.

[raduvlad1995]

question, are day conditions faster or slower than nigt conditions in tennis ? it seemed like djokovic's ball wasn t as fast in day conditions than yesterday against ruud

[Foo_Fighter]

4 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

question, are day conditions faster or slower than nigt conditions in tennis ? it seemed like djokovic's ball wasn t as fast in day conditions than yesterday against ruud

Day conditions are always faster. Ruud was hitting the ball with a lot of pace, enabling Djokovic to also hit with similar pace, therefore make his balls look faster than today. Tsitsipas certainly wasn't giving as much pace. 

[neilovan]

51 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

question, are day conditions faster or slower than nigt conditions in tennis ? it seemed like djokovic's ball wasn t as fast in day conditions than yesterday against ruud

I don't know if it makes a huge difference as they water the courts after every match. Heavy overhead and damp or humid conditions will have an effect on the flight and the bounce of the ball (as when Soderling beat Nadal at Roland Garros).

Edited May 15, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

Decent week on the outrights. 160 points staked and a profit of nearly 42 points. A Jabeur win would have been even better, but Swiatek is almost unbeatable right now.