Tennis Tips - May 9 - May 15

[CzechPunter]

[DrO]

Laslo Djere to beat Borna Coric @1,67 (local bookie Circuscasino)

Once again i'm going against Coric who is,i believe,not yet at his best level. He had a long break and playing with the protected ranking. Djere,similarly to Lajovic,had a bad run of results in first couple of months of the season,but he's improving lately reaching semifinal of Marakech and 3rd round of Monte Carlo (lost to Tsistsipas in two very close sets)..he won quite comfortable against Kokkinakis and Dellien in the qualis..so i expect him to have a uper hand over Coric.

[CzechPunter]

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano to beat Lucia Bronzetti at 1.73 with Pinnacle

Despite Bronzetti being Italian, I fancy Osorio to come out on top here, she seems far superior and also with a solid mental game, having beaten Svitolina in a tough match and playing some great battles already this year. Anywhere else and I reckon she'd be 1.57. but I don't think the home factor is strong enough to push her to 1.73.

[carina007]

Any chances for Delbonis against Carrena Busto?

[Torque]

1 hour ago, carina007 said:

Any chances for Delbonis against Carrena Busto?

I'd say so yes. Carreno Busta has been pretty flaky of late.

[raduvlad1995]

well my over on games on opelka wawrinka was won , and to make it perfect stan finaly won a match

[carina007]

9 hours ago, Torque said:

I'd say so yes. Carreno Busta has been pretty flaky of late.

The easiest win for Carreno ever against Delbonis. Incredbile how lucky I am last weeks...

[Torque]

1 hour ago, carina007 said:

The easiest win for Carreno ever against Delbonis. Incredbile how lucky I am last weeks...

It happens @carina007

Backing Delbonis was always going to be risky given the odds. I still think he was worth backing and the fact he lost doesn't change that. Luck evens out in the long run so don't be discouraged by a few losing weeks. I have them all the time.

[carina007]

Yes, reason why I am pissed is that I had good calls on that combo (Basilashvili, Shapovalov and Van den Zandschulp) and there was no reason to go with risky bet against such a big favorite (Carrena)

But today is new day. A lot of hard matches to predict.

[raduvlad1995]

10 hours ago, Torque said:

It happens @carina007

Backing Delbonis was always going to be risky given the odds. I still think he was worth backing and the fact he lost doesn't change that. Luck evens out in the long run so don't be discouraged by a few losing weeks. I have them all the time.

yeah I had 1 hard week of losses last week, it happens and it's annoying when you know alot of those losses were your fault. But yeah , you need to keep calm and regroup, better days will come eventualy

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, carina007 said:

Yes, reason why I am pissed is that I had good calls on that combo (Basilashvili, Shapovalov and Van den Zandschulp) and there was no reason to go with risky bet against such a big favorite (Carrena)

But today is new day. A lot of hard matches to predict.

I feel you man, that's what I did on several ocasions lately, got to greedy and bet on matches that simply weren t necesary , it's a learning experience

Edited May 10, 2022 by raduvlad1995

[raduvlad1995]

while I'm not sure on this one, I have to say that I believe shapovalov takes out basilashvilli at 1,60 odds today. I liked how he played against sonego and IMO he has a big advantage over basilashvili with his lefty serve and his better movement on clay. What do you guys think ?

[raduvlad1995]

I ll probably also take zandschulp to atleast take a set against ruud (maybe even win), the dutch just has his game in order way more than ruud does at this point.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

while I'm not sure on this one, I have to say that I believe shapovalov takes out basilashvilli at 1,60 odds today. I liked how he played against sonego and IMO he has a big advantage over basilashvili with his lefty serve and his better movement on clay. What do you guys think ?

I can't back Shapovalov. Find it hard to take him seriously. His attitude leaves a lot to be desired and he's had some woeful results in the last couple of seasons - has lost matches he had no business losing. I'd be looking elsewhere today.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

I ll probably also take zandschulp to atleast take a set against ruud (maybe even win), the dutch just has his game in order way more than ruud does at this point.

That looks worth backing. He beat Ruud handily enough just the other week and Ruud for whatever reason is struggling right now.

[raduvlad1995]

5 minutes ago, Torque said:

I can't back Shapovalov. Find it hard to take him seriously. His attitude leaves a lot to be desired and he's had some woeful results in the last couple of seasons - has lost matches he had no business losing. I'd be looking elsewhere today.

yeah I don t realy bet on him at all, but he recovered well against sonego yesterday and it's not like basilashvili is a paragon of consistency himself. Shapo played very well against sonego and he had good results in rome before. Basilashvili did beat him before, but shapovalov was like 18 then .

[neilovan]

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.

Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.

Will take these three as a treble.

If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.

I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.

One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.

Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Edited May 10, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

18 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.

Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.

Will take these three as a treble.

If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.

I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.

One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.

Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

I definetly think that pedro martinez is underachieving with the game he has..must be mentality

[neilovan]

Just for the match starting now between Auger Aliasimme and Davidovich Fokina. Fokina can more than match Felix physically, and I think he wins a close one. I think Felix has such a limited game. It's stand on the baseline and hit it as hard as possible, which just won't win matches against tough physical opponents. He needs to develop a drop shot (ala Alcaraz), and a little more finesse,  which will open up the court and set his game up. At the moment I don't think his is capable of doing this, so I give the edge to Davidovich here.

[CzechPunter]

Osorio delivered!

Jil Teichmann to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.75 with BetVictor

Teichmann is having a great form at the moment, while Pliskova...well, she's bound to recover at some point, but I'm willing to oppose her until she does. Aside from beating the similarly out-of-form Kvitova, she's done absolutely nothing so far in 2022, with only one other win over Zavatska. She also doesn't always care on clay really.

[neilovan]

Two top players make their starts in the Tournament tomorrow. Badosa and Konteveit.

Badosa has the game to win this tourn, especially now that her serve is improving. You can see it in the serve break stats, and they are getting better. Serving is not just getting the ball in, but understanding where your opponent is going to return the ball (if it comes back). It's like playing chess. You need to be a couple of moves ahead, and then you can start playing to patterns that suite your strengths. At this point you start to become more proactive, playing aggressive 1st strike tennis. Badosa has too much game for Sasnovich here.

Konteveit just looked burned out and exhausted in her last few matches. A decent break at home, chilling and recharging the batteries does not hurt, and was exactly what was needed. For me, Martic gets overpowered and blown off the court here.

Halep plays Collins, and I think it will be Collins first match in Europe this Summer. So not yet match ready (in my opinion), or acclimatized. I think this rust, helps Halep get over the line here.

In the WTA in Paris Claire Lui plays Anastasia Gasanova and I think that game is a pretty easy one sided victory. Lui was a world #1 junior and she is going places. Which this space!

I will take all four as a quad legged bet..

I'm not sure that Zverev can just brush off his demolition in Spain last week (it's only 3 days ago). That was a proper beating, and it has to bruise the mind. Baez will look at that and be thinking 'hey, I can do that to him as well'. Baez is a tough youngster, and I would be going over 20 games here, with a small bet.

Gotta be going with Wawrinka to beat Djere.  Young players and players coming back from injury suffer from the same thing. Inconsistency! But Stan can definitely bring it, even though he does not look to be in the greatest of shape (but that is his body type). I thought that Coric could have beaten Djere but he also showed some weakness, which is expected on the comeback trail. Again not a huge bet.

Carreno-Busta just has too much for Khackanov on clay, and I expect the Spaniard to have a regulation win. For me a double with Wawrinka at odds around 3.5 to 1 is fair enough.

[CzechPunter]

@neilovanCollins actually played twice in Madrid. She beat Puig, who made her comeback start in that event before getting injured the following week, and then lost awfully against Andreescu.

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Two top players make their starts in the Tournament tomorrow. Badosa and Konteveit.

Badosa has the game to win this tourn, especially now that her serve is improving. You can see it in the serve break stats, and they are getting better. Serving is not just getting the ball in, but understanding where your opponent is going to return the ball (if it comes back). It's like playing chess. You need to be a couple of moves ahead, and then you can start playing to patterns that suite your strengths. At this point you start to become more proactive, playing aggressive 1st strike tennis. Badosa has too much game for Sasnovich here.

Konteveit just looked burned out and exhausted in her last few matches. A decent break at home, chilling and recharging the batteries does not hurt, and was exactly what was needed. For me, Martic gets overpowered and blown off the court here.

Halep plays Collins, and I think it will be Collins first match in Europe this Summer. So not yet match ready (in my opinion), or acclimatized. I think this rust, helps Halep get over the line here.

In the WTA in Paris Claire Lui plays Anastasia Gasanova and I think that game is a pretty easy one sided victory. Lui was a world #1 junior and she is going places. Which this space!

I will take all four as a quad legged bet..

I'm not sure that Zverev can just brush off his demolition in Spain last week (it's only 3 days ago). That was a proper beating, and it has to bruise the mind. Baez will look at that and be thinking 'hey, I can do that to him as well'. Baez is a tough youngster, and I would be going over 20 games here, with a small bet.

Gotta be going with Wawrinka to beat Djere.  Young players and players coming back from injury suffer from the same thing. Inconsistency! But Stan can definitely bring it, even though he does not look to be in the greatest of shape (but that is his body type). I thought that Coric could have beaten Djere but he also showed some weakness, which is expected on the comeback trail. Again not a huge bet.

Carreno-Busta just has too much for Khackanov on clay, and I expect the Spaniard to have a regulation win. For me a double with Wawrinka at odds around 3.5 to 1 is fair enough.

oh, I think the complete oposite on wawrinka-djere...I ve watched stan closely for half a decade and djere is definetly the type of player that can beat him(if wawrinka is not fully focused). Djere is consistent, has some power , IMO it's easy money to take djere over stan sadly.

[Torque]

46 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

oh, I think the complete oposite on wawrinka-djere...I ve watched stan closely for half a decade and djere is definetly the type of player that can beat him(if wawrinka is not fully focused). Djere is consistent, has some power , IMO it's easy money to take djere over stan sadly.

Contrasting opinions are just what I like to see. Gives a more rounded appraisal of a match and helps to better inform any bet that might be taken.

[four-leaf]

Stan the man or also known as the running meatball...

[CzechPunter]

He's always been fitter than he looked!

[Stanimal]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

He's always been fitter than he looked!

I think he will finish the line. With opelka he was almost done but found a way to win. Djere is probably betting on Wawrinka also.  Plus.. We know wawrinka can blow everyone of the court if is on mood. 

[Heisenberg68]

Wawrinka must be given time to get back to his best on the circuit. 
His return is already a great victory for him. He almost lost in the first round, but he showed his will. 

Today, it seems even harder. Djere should win. 

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, Stanimal said:

I think he will finish the line. With opelka he was almost done but found a way to win. Djere is probably betting on Wawrinka also.  Plus.. We know wawrinka can blow everyone of the court if is on mood. 

opelka is a very diferent player compared to djere, and if you look at djere's clay results this year, they re great , so I doubt he's gonna tank the match. Stan doesn t have the same power he used to have , nor does he have the consistency right now to go toe to toe with djere .

[Heisenberg68]

1 hour ago, raduvlad1995 said:

opelka is a very diferent player compared to djere, and if you look at djere's clay results this year, they re great , so I doubt he's gonna tank the match. Stan doesn t have the same power he used to have , nor does he have the consistency right now to go toe to toe with djere .

wawrinka does not yet have the energy to win two matches in a row, in two days. A little patience