Tennis Tips - May 9 - May 15

[neilovan]

12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

@neilovanCollins actually played twice in Madrid. She beat Puig, who made her comeback start in that event before getting injured the following week, and then lost awfully against Andreescu.

I didn't know Collins had played at all in Europe. I feel that Halep is actually playing better coaching herself. Definitely she is trying to be more aggressive. Europeans will also feel more comfortable around Europe, and def have some advantage on 'home' turf. Probably of the 4 matches I mentioned in previous post, this is the tricky one.

I was streaming that Andreescu  v Radacanu yesterday, and Andreescu looked very good. Moves well, hits the ball really well ... she is fit and strong. Her record v top 25 players is actually very good. Robbed by another Radacanu retirement. It really feels like 'what is the excuse this time?' but maybe I'm too harsh. 

With Wawrinka, I feel that players who have big serves, use less energy on court. Serving, like hitting a golf ball is really not about hitting it hard. It works when you use your big muscles (thighs and torso), and have tempo and rhythm. It then flows easily and you can play very aggressively behind it. Stan has a big serve, so I don't think he was exhausted from the previous match, but maybe a 37 year old feels aches and pains a little longer.

I don't like to combine 2 long'ish shots in a double, as when one wins the other probably loses. Better to bet them as singles with equal (small) stakes.  SIx long shots today all taken as singles;

Alexandrova to beat Sakkari.  In form Alexandrova versus a slightly undercooked Sakkari? 

Pliskova to beat Tiechmann.   Pliskova is a really solid player, just with a slump in form. At some point she will wake up and bring it.

Brooksby to beat Goffin.   Brooksby similar to Pliskova, with a slight downturn. But if his game is 7+/10 here he wins. Goffin on the comeback trail could easily have a slight off day.

Baez to beat Zverev.  Is Zverev over his Sunday shellacking from Alcaraz. Surely there must be some negative toxins/doubts lingering?

Osorio to beat Azarenka. What effect does the Ukrainian conflict have on players from Belarus, Ukraine and Russia?

Fruhvirtova to beat Kanepi.

 

Can 3 of the above matches win?

Edited May 11, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

21 hours ago, neilovan said:

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.

Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.

Will take these three as a treble.

If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.

I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.

One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.

Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Martinez just got blitzed by Sinner, who played really well. These courts, bounce and speeds really suite Sinner, and the big crowd didn't hurt him either.

Disappointed to see van de Zandschulp lose after taking the 1st set. Played a bad 2nd set and lost the momentum, and gave Ruud the confidence he needed.

Robbed again by Radacanu, but the ladies treble won.

[delfino]

I think WAW has the name, and Djere has the power these days. 

[neilovan]

Amazing, Konteveit loses her serve 7 times in 9 serve games and the match to someone she should demolish. 

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

 

Alexandrova to beat Sakkari.  In form Alexandrova versus a slightly undercooked Sakkari? 

Pliskova to beat Tiechmann.   Pliskova is a really solid player, just with a slump in form. At some point she will wake up and bring it.

Brooksby to beat Goffin.   Brooksby similar to Pliskova, with a slight downturn. But if his game is 7+/10 here he wins. Goffin on the comeback trail could easily have a slight off day.

Baez to beat Zverev.  Is Zverev over his Sunday shellacking from Alcaraz. Surely there must be some negative toxins/doubts lingering?

Osorio to beat Azarenka. What effect does the Ukrainian conflict have on players from Belarus, Ukraine and Russia?

Fruhvirtova to beat Kanepi.

 

Can 3 of the above matches win?

What I meant to say was "can any of the above matches win?" 

[Heisenberg68]

Goffin lost the first set 6-0 but still worried Brooksby on his serve. 
I think he can win this match. The odds …  @6,00 ! 

[Heisenberg68]

1 hour ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Goffin lost the first set 6-0 but still worried Brooksby on his serve. 
I think he can win this match. The odds …  @6,00 ! 

ridiculous level of Goffin on his serve 

[carina007]

Goffin lost, Schwartzman lost, Carreno lost

Now I have seen everything

Tsitsipas was close too... Little break for me. This ATP Rome is crazy

[CzechPunter]

Ridiculous day, yeah! Can't complain about Teichmann, however.

Greetje Minnen (-3.5) to beat Mai Hontama at 1.87 with Unibet

I quite fancy Minnen to progress throughout without any difficulties in Karlsruhe, Hontama should be punching above her category in this match. She's never been too impressive on clay and she was actually playing on the lower level on that surface last year before finally stepping it up in 2022. There should also be a bit of a revenge factor in this one, as Hontama upset Minnen in Indian Wells earlier this year. 

 

[neilovan]

Just took a massive bet on Sinner to beat Fognini.

2 to 10 but there is simply no way that Fognini can beat this guy. Clash of similar styles but Sinner is just miles better, and totally bossing it.

If you can get the 5.5 game handicap I think that wins easily as well. At odds of 7 to 10

Sinner 2-1 up but this game is over.

Edited May 11, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Just took a massive bet on Sinner to beat Fognini.

2 to 10 but there is simply no way that Fognini can beat this guy. Clash of similar styles but Sinner is just miles better, and totally bossing it.

If you can get the 5.5 game handicap I think that wins easily as well. At odds of 7 to 10

Sinner 2-1 up but this game is over.

So Sinner won, but Fognini is just such a talented player. Very few can match his shot making ability, but to play at that level for set after set is basically impossible. Luckily I managed to avoid the 5.5 spread and did well on the match result. Wawrinka also helped salvage an average day.

[amity]

Halep getting trounced by Collins in the second set after losing a close first set was a surprise. Doesn't augur well for her chances in Paris. Collins impressive though in her first match for a while.

[neilovan]

In the men's not many surprises on the cards on a day where most results look straight forward. 

Watched the Cilic v Norrie match, and even though Norrie was injured, Cilic just hit the ball incredibly well. Played with a smile on his face and really enjoyed himself. It was so atypical, but was a joy to watch. You can see that he is a nice person. Was a purple patch, and if he plays like that again he is almost unbeatable ... he was that good! Maybe just a strange combination of the right surface, balls, mental state, temp, bio rhythms. Some of his backhands were amazing!

For me Wawrinka may just be out of gas against Novak, and I would be tempted to go Djoko in straight sets. 2 wins back to back may just be too much physically, emotionally and mentally. The odds of 1.21 are pretty poor though.

Shapavalov could take a set off Nadal (he did last year), when Nadal won a very close match, so I am tempted to go over 19.5 games which has odds of 2. I think the left hander v left hander nullifies Nadal's hook to the 'backhand' side and creates unusual problems for him. For me probably the best value bet of the day at even money.

I refuse to back Ruud who has dropped the ball as a favorite just too often for me (1.2 against Lajovic, 1.3 against van de Zandschulp, 1.4 against Carreno-Busta all lost from the 22nd April to now). He is not in form and not value at such low odds.  

The only real question here is how to get the max out of a day in which the favorites are going to win almost all the matches? Open to suggestions... 

I am probably taking Zverev, SInner, Tsitsipas, Djokovic 2:0, Nadal Over 19.5, as one medium sized bet which should be around 3.7 to 1 .

In the WTA Swiatek plays Azarenka which should be a straight forward win. Swaitek, defending champion, who seems to love it in Rome. Hard to forget her 6-0 6-0 demolition of Pliskova in the final last year. Would be going for the straight sets win for Swiatek here (odds around 1.4) or the under 20 games (6-4 6-3 score).

Sakkari played Gauff last year in this tournament (a strange match of 6-1 sets). I think she has improved and is a better player this year. Serve is a weapon now, miles better than last year. Has Gauff's game developed as much? I don't think so and expect a Sakkari win here.

I will also take a treble of Collins to beat Anisimova, Tiechmann to beat Rybakina and Swiatek under 20 games. I feel that Tiechmann is very suited for clay. Moves well, serves well and could just be too physical for Rybakina, who is over-reliant on her serve. Rybakina also moves poorly, especially on clay.  If Collins can get the better of Halep, she has a very good chance against Anisimova, especially with another match played. 

For me the Sabalenka, Teichmann, Anisimova matches are all gonna be close. All 6 players are playing well, and I find it almost impossible to call winners here. Again not sure what to do. Maybe one has to be betting over game totals?

 

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

16 hours ago, carina007 said:

Goffin lost, Schwartzman lost, Carreno lost

Now I have seen everything

Tsitsipas was close too... Little break for me. This ATP Rome is crazy

I think you could add Konteveit to the list. She played like a zoombie.

[carina007]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I think you could add Konteveit to the list. She played like a zoombie.

Don't agree with you. Martic is fighter and the best results came from clay. For me it's not surprise

[neilovan]

8 minutes ago, carina007 said:

Don't agree with you. Martic is fighter and the best results came from clay. For me it's not surprise

Konteveit 56% 1st serves in, 5 double faults, 37% win on first serve is pretty useless. Faced 11 break points  in 9 serve games and lost her serve 7 times in 9 attempts. Konteveit had her serve broken 7+ times in a match just 3 times in the last 4 years, so she really had a bad day. If Martic could do it to Andreescu I would be impressed, but I'm betting she can't.

[neilovan]

The Badosa v Kasatkina match pushed back till after the Shapavalov v Nadal match. 

This is a big advantage to the Spanish player (in my opinion), as they are used to later evenings, and an 11pm start is really ridiculous.

will double my bet on Badosa for this simple reason. 

[carina007]

Opinions for matches Sinner-Tsitsipas and Shapovalov-Ruud?

Tsitsipas always hard opponent, specially on clay. But looks like his toughts go away at some moments and then he looses a set and needs to chase result. Sinner looks very solid in Rome but only loss against vs Auger-Alliasime last week it bothers me.

Shapovalov is very solid in Rome (last year SF), looks like he likes to play here. I only hope that euphoria would not take him over after win vs Nadal. I looked highlights, he killed him with forehand. Ruud very lucky with draw, I hope he looses this time

Shapovalov @ 3.00

Sinner @ 2.60

Edited May 13, 2022 by carina007

[raduvlad1995]

55 minutes ago, carina007 said:

Opinions for matches Sinner-Tsitsipas and Shapovalov-Ruud?

Tsitsipas always hard opponent, specially on clay. But looks like his toughts go away at some moments and then he looses a set and needs to chase result. Sinner looks very solid in Rome but only loss against vs Auger-Alliasime last week it bothers me.

Shapovalov is very solid in Rome (last year SF), looks like he likes to play here. I only hope that euphoria would not take him over after win vs Nadal. I looked highlights, he killed him with forehand. Ruud very lucky with draw, I hope he looses this time

if and it's a big IF cause we re talking about shapo here, but if the canadian keeps even 80% of the level from the nadal match he straight sets ruud(especialy in the form ruud is in now, he wasn t even impressive against freacking brooksby). Sinner should make it dificult for tsitsipas, especialy since stef had many ups and downs. I d take both shapo and sinner to tak sets.

[CzechPunter]

Oh my, the evening/night results!

Bianca Andreescu (+6) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.84 with Pinnacle

I'm not confident about Andreescu winning this, but she's played herself into a decent form and the win over Martic was absolutely legit, so the +6 looks a bit high to me here. She has both pace and trickery when on song and might be able to pull Swiatek out of her comfort zone. 

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Oh my, the evening/night results!

Bianca Andreescu (+6) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.84 with Pinnacle

I'm not confident about Andreescu winning this, but she's played herself into a decent form and the win over Martic was absolutely legit, so the +6 looks a bit high to me here. She has both pace and trickery when on song and might be able to pull Swiatek out of her comfort zone. 

I would be very hesitant to go against Swaitek in any bet. Yesterday she was 3-0 down to Azarenka (1st set) and then beat her 6-1. 2nd set down 0-1 and then won 6 in a row. She is on a run that is defining and awesome. 25 matches unbeaten, with 19 wins in straight sets. She is dominating opponents on return of serve. She must have covered the -6.5 handicap 15 times in 25 matches. And the crazy thing is that Azarenka didn't play badly. I think you are swimming against the tide opposing Swiatek at this moment.

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

WTA: 

Anisimova is playing very well. Has had excellent wins on clay (beating Azarenka, Martic and Sabalenka in Madrid) and winning 3 matches already in Rome.  Her performance against Collins was excellent, dominating, with unbelievable serve stats;

	AmandaAnisimova DanielleCollins

63%	First serve %	52%
81%	Win % on 1st serve	48%
90%	Win % on 2nd serve	59%

I think Sabalenka has to play very well to beat such an in form opponent. If she has a slight off day here, she will lose. Put under pressure (by a really good returner), I think Sabalenka's serve will not hold up. I think she loses here.

Sakkari beat Gauff but it was a close match. Really nothing in it, but Gauff has forehand issues that cost her the match. When she sorts that stroke out she is gonna be very very tough to beat. Moves well, solid serve, strong attitude, terrific backhand and she is only 18. She is a future superstar!  Jabeur doesn't have such an apparent weakness (at this level), and it is going to be miles harder for Sakkari to just pick up free points like that. I think the handicapping is decent and expect Jabeur to win here.

Surprised Kasatkina beat Badosa last night. For me Tiechmann should prove an easier customer to handle.  Tiechmann has these weird losses (Ruse ranked 198, Zanevska 193, Grabher 194), and I don't think her physical ability will give her a big edge (when compared to Rybakina) here.  Happy to back Kasatkina at odds of even money.

Will go small medium bet on the treble which works at around 4.6 to 1.

 

[neilovan]

In the ATP I see upsets. Ruud at 1.4 against Shapavalov is a joke. Will be going for Shapavalov here. He showed me something last night in 1st game of 2nd set, after having been demolished 1st set. I think it was a 12 minute game, where he didn't back down, went for his shots and played incredibly well, against the greatest clay court player of all time.

I think Djokovic and Zverev cruise through, will take them as a double, both to win in straight sets. Just too good for their opponents.  

I think Tsitsipas is vulnerable and Sinner will beat him. Full support of the Italian crowd, will make it hostile, and Tsitsipas doesn't seem to like it. Maybe with all the noise, he can't hear instructions from his dad?

[Torque]

I'm going to dip into the outrights for both ATP and WTA. Sometimes it can pay not to make things too complicated and look towards the top of the market for tournament winners and that's what I'll be doing in Rome. Djokovic looks as though he's timing his run to Roland Garros perfectly after a few poor results so far this clay swing, and Swiatek just looks like she's forgotten how to lose. As alluded to by @neilovan even falling two breaks behind at the start against Vika wasn't enough to see her streak of wins come to an end.

I'll also back two other players in case the favourites falter, in the shape of Shapovalov and Jabeur. Shapovalov did well to beat Nadal but there's no question a lot of his victory had to do with Nadal being injured. Despite that though he showed good resolve and it'll be interesting to see if he can apply himself in the same way going forward here. He gets Ruud next and with Ruud in indifferent form that's a match he can win, although I expect Ruud to push him all the way. Jabeur is a nice price considering her form and I'll be surprised if it isn't her or Swiatek that takes the title. She should get the better of Sakkari although I won't be surprised if it takes three sets.

 

40pts Djokovic to win ATP Rome @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook

5pts Shapovalov to win ATP Rome @ 39.22 Betfair Exchange

25pts Swiatek to win WTA Rome @ 2.06 Betfair Exchange

25pts Jabeur to win WTA Rome @ 6.49 Betfair Exchange

[CzechPunter]

Did you mean Jabeur 5 pts instead of 25? 

[Torque]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Did you mean Jabeur 5 pts instead of 25? 

No. Stakes are correct.

[neilovan]

7 hours ago, neilovan said:

I would be very hesitant to go against Swaitek in any bet. Yesterday she was 3-0 down to Azarenka (1st set) and then beat her 6-1. 2nd set down 0-1 and then won 6 in a row. She is on a run that is defining and awesome. 25 matches unbeaten, with 19 wins in straight sets. She is dominating opponents on return of serve. She must have covered the -6.5 handicap 15 times in 25 matches. And the crazy thing is that Azarenka didn't play badly. I think you are swimming against the tide opposing Swiatek at this moment.

 

It's bizarre that Swiatek only wins the 1st set 7-6. Looks like bad advice, but she seems to get such momentum, and could easily win the 2nd set 6-0

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, a bit cruel, but fair play to Swiatek. 

[neilovan]

17 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, a bit cruel, but fair play to Swiatek. 

It tells you quite a bit about Andreescu, that she is brittle. Close 1st set, a lot invested, not strong enough mentally at the moment to handle it, and thus the 2nd set demolition. 

[neilovan]

Good grief, have you ever seen anything like the Jabeur v Sakkari match. Sakkari is a set and 2 breaks up. Was actually serving at set up 5-2 and 30-0 and manages to lose. Just insane, though I am not complaining.