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Racing Chat - Monday 18th April

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Posted

Kempton 2.55

Four promising colts line up here for this one mile conditions stakes with arguably John and Thady Gosden’s Saga the form horse. Owned by Her Majesty The Queen he bumped into a couple of smart sorts on his first two starts as a juvenile in the Godolphin pair Modern Games (subsequent Breeders Cup winner) and Coroebus before breaking his duck at Ascot in September. He still has an entry in the 2000 Guineas. William Haggas saddles the main danger in Maljoom who won on his racecourse debut when pushed out to win a novices stakes at Doncaster on their opening Lincoln meeting. That form is not as good as Saga’s but he will have the edge in fitness you would have thought. Owen Burrow’s Bayraq brings the course form having won over a furlong shorter last October from an odds on shot of the Gosden’s. The Crisford’s Artois make up the quartet but looks likely to come up a bit short. On all known form Saga should be winning this and he’s a confident selection under Frankie Dettori. 

SAGA 4 points win @ 11/8 Paddy Power

 

Fairyhouse 3.15

Although there are seventeen runners declared for this 2m 5 1/2F handicap hurdle it may not be as competitive as it first looks. Many are out of sorts with the exception of the front two in the market who look the pair to concentrate on here. Carrig Sam had already won a point to point and a maiden hurdle here before taking a similar contest to this over a two furlong shorter trip. An 8lb rise is unlikely to stop him following up and the extra distance will be very much in his favour. Pushing him for current favouritism is the Gordon Elliot trained Festival D’Ex who actually finished 5 1/4L behind Carrig Sam here in February and is 5lb better off today. He has run well in defeat agin since at Naas but today preference has to be for the Arthur Moore trained Carrig Sam. The only other horse that appeals is the double green silks of Homme D’un Soir of Stuart Crawfords who has claims with the selection on recent running. 

CARRIG SAM 2 points each way @ 9/2 Bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Kempton 3.30

A decent turn out for the Racing TV Roseberry Handicap run over just short of 1m 4F. There’s some interesting handicappers here including a pair of Sir Michael Stoute runners in Boss Power to be ridden by Ryan Moore and perhaps of more interest the Richard Kingscote ridden Hasty Sailor who won his last two starts on the all weather rising 13lb. The pair of them though are having their first runs of the season, and with Stoute yet to have a winner this year couldn’t be backed with any real confidence. Fitness will not be an issue mind with my selection from the bottom of the handicap. Diamond Bay was very impressive on his comeback following a 141 day break when easing home over course and distance with his jockey Richard Kingscote looking around for non existent dangers. I’m not sure if there is any significance in the fact that Kingscote is now on the Stoute runner but such was the visual appeal of Diamond Bay that day that he has to be the selection here from a 7lb higher mark for trainer Tom Ward and jockey Tim Marquand. 

DIAMOND BAY @ 2 points each way @ William Hill 9/2 1/5 1234

 

Fairyhouse 3.50

A very competitive 2m 4F grade 2 hurdle with plenty with chances. JP McManus runs three with his stable jockey choosing Thedevilscoachman for Noel Meade who won the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle last time out at Navan having briefly flirted with chasing. He does have to carry a 5lb penalty for that victory here along with one of JP’s other runners Darasso and the P M Doyle trained Flame Bearer who is two from two at the track. Willie Mullins is always feared in these type of contests are saddles two in Whiskey Sour a runaway 15L winner last time out and Jon Snow who we haven’t seen for 606 days. Stable jockey number one Paul Townend appears to have chosen the former but that will only help the price of Jon Snow who will be partnered today by Brian Hayes. He looked a proper horse when we last saw him and is actually the highest rated of the field today. Whether he’s straight enough is another matter but at the prices I’ll pay to find out. 

JON SNOW 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Kempton 4.05

Only 7 fillies go to post for the listed Racing TV Snowdrop Fillies Stakes run over a mile. It should only really concern the front three in the market with Tom Ward’s Roman Mist the top rated. A consistent sort he maybe the fittest of the front trio and should go close. I do prefer the chances though of the William Haggas runner, My Astra who is making her all weather debut having won two of her three career starts, the latest coming in listed company at Salisbury last October on heavy ground. She had previously won on fast ground so it seems all ground comes alike to her. Sir Michael Stoute has yet to get off the mark for the year but has only had five runners so far. He saddles Potapova who kept decent company last season and was a very impressive winner on her only start on the all weather back in November 2020 at Chelmsford. It’s hard to split between the pair with slight preference for My Astra. 

MY ASTRA 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

Fairyhouse 4.20

Only six go to post for this 2m 4F Grade 2 Devenish Chase with Willie Mullins holding the aces saddling three of the six runners. Janidil was last seen running a credible 14L second to stable companion Allaho in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and despite a 8lb penalty here looks the one to be with. Owned by JP McManus he will be ridden by his retained pilot Mark Walsh. Mullins may provide the danger in the Paul Townend ridden Blackbow who on official ratings at these weights is only a pound below Janidil. He bounced back to form last March when landing the odds at Clonmel and can chase home the selection for a Mullins 1-2. 

JANIDILL 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill

 

Fairyhouse 5.00

This year’s BoyleSports Irish Grand National has once again attracted a full field of thirty runners and will be run over 3m 5F. Willie Mullins saddles the likely favourite in Gaillard Du Mesnil, a novice who ran third at the Cheltenham Festival in the Brown Advisory and could be seriously well handicapped. There’s many others with chances including a handful that ran in in last weekends Aintree Grand National including Mount Ida (unseated at first), Run Wild Fred (fell at 8th), Enjoy D’Allen (unseated at first), Samcro (finished a well beaten 11th), Death Duty unseated at 8th and School Boy Hours who almost fell at the 9th and was pulled up. I do feel that the latter, who his trainer Noel Meade has been extremely complimentary about has another big staying handicap like this in him (he won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas) and in a wide open contest is worth a small each way wager. 

SCHOOL BOY HOURS 1 point each way @ 14/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234567

 

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/17/2022 at 2:57 PM, Budgie 65 said:

Let's c who gets the Irish grand national winner 

My£5 goes on Screaming colours 20/1

I've done 3 .

RUN WILD FRED 14/ ( 7 places ) 

3 of the last 5 winners have won off a mark of 137 & two fit that profile 

SMOKING GUN 33/1 ( 7 places ) 

LORD LARIAT ( 7 places ) 

Both just small stakes fun stat bets .

There's that many meetings tomorrow reckon I'll set my alarm clock an hour earlier ?

Edited by calva decoy
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ipswich45

ipswich45

Posted
Posted (edited)

hopefully some bank holiday bankers and not something else that rhymes with it 

Wolverhampton
1501 - 5 Conservative      4/1 Bet365     2nd
1611 - 4 Nationwide     7/2 Paddy Power   WON

Chepstow
1400 - 2 Silent Revolution   15/8 Bet365   WON
1435 - 4 Midnight Centurion    4/1 Bet365  3rd
1655 - 3 King D'argent    4/1 Bet365  4th

Fakenham
1300 - 1 Obey The Rules   2/1 William Hill   3rd
1410 - 1 Sorbet   11/2 Bet365  5th
1520 - 8 Brianstorm   9/2 William Hill  Pulled Up
1555 - 2 Not That Fuisse   13/8 Bet365  WON
1630 - 2 Coin Basket   9/2 Paddy Power  WON

Huntingdon
1615 - 3 Eaglehill   4/1 William Hill   5th
1650 - 5 Thundersockssundae   3/1 William Hill    WON

Kempton
1530 - 4 Diamond Bay   4/1 William Hill   8th
1605 - 6 Roman Mist   11/4 Bet365   WON
1640 - 1 Intuitive    11/2 Bet365  6th

Plumpton
1417 - 2 Parliament Hill   5/2 William Hill   WON
1527 - 2 Wells Glory   7/2 William Hill  Pulled Up
1747 - 2 The Tin Miner  4/1 William Hill  

Redcar
1339 - 3 True Welfare   10/3 Bet365   5th
1449 - 13 Penombre   14/1 Bet365   9th
1709 - 1 London Eye    2/1 Bet365  4th

Cork
1350 - 14 Tenzing   4/1 Bet365   WON
1534 - 1 Beyondapproach  5/1 Bet365  6th
1719 - 8 Senior Chief   4/1 Bet365   2nd

Fairyhouse
1405 - 9 Marvel Fan   8/1 Bet365  Fell
1515 - 5 Folcano   7/1 Bet365  12th
1620 - 5 Blackbow   3/1 Bet365  Fell
1700 - 26 Full Time Score   10/1 William Hill  15th
1810 - 6 The Mediator  3/1 Bet365

Edited by ipswich45
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cannotbebeat

cannotbebeat

Posted
Posted

These are the 3 trainer/jockey combinations I am following for April

Grant Tuer/Oliver Stammers
Runs 7 - L L L L L L L

A D Brown/Paula Muir
Runs 2 - L L

K A Ryan/Kevin Stott
Runs 23 - L L L L L L W L L L L NR L L L L L NR L L L L L

Bets 32 - Profit 0 - Loss 250

Winning Price 4/1 NR NR

Around halfway through the month never shown a profit losses getting steep. Will keep going till the end of the month then revaluate the situation.

Today's Runner

Redcar
2.49 Jems Bond 5/1

Plus a couple of my own picks
Singles & double

Wolverhampton
3.01 Meng Tian 5/2

5.21 Carlos Felix 3/1

Good luck all CNBB.

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fd1972uk

fd1972uk

Posted
Posted

Mixture of free bets, moneyback and one itv offer. 

Will wait to see if any moneybacks come back and then look at Irish GN. 

Singles

Fai 1515 carrig sam itv

Kem 1715 capotes dream

1550 fai santa rossa sky mb

1530 kem farhan pp mb

Double ew

Kem 1715 capotes dream & wol 1611 sarahs verse

Kem 1530 addayee & Fai 1550 jon snow

 

Treble

Fai 1440 icare allen

Kem 1455 saga

Kem 1605 my astra

 

Good luck all. 

 

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted

Funny enough it was tricky to find selections today and have still had to compromise on a few prices

My Trixie is

4.15 Hunt Danny Whizzbang 2/1

4.55 Chep Sebastopol 16/5

5.21 Wolv Carlos Felix 3/1 (2nd Fav)

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 91.80 pts

Cover bets

4.15 Hunt Eagle Hill 1 pt at 5.8, Boughtbefoelunch 0.5 at 9/2 (short) and Innisfreelad 0.5 pts at 5/1 (short) NB omitted Truckin Away because of poor recent form)

4.55 Chep Mick Pastor 1 pt 9/2, Rikoboy 0.5 pts at 6/1 and Zambezi Fix 0.5 at 11/2 (short) NB omitted King DArgent as not been running well)

5.21 Wolv Crystal Starlet 1 pt 85/40 (short) Richard RHB 0.5 pts at 11/2 (short) and Bobba Tee 0.5 pts at 10/1 Nb Omitted Running Cloud and Antonine Road (Mark Johnstone, always dangerous to leave out.

The best I can do today

10 points staked

 

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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, cannotbebeat said:

These are the 3 trainer/jockey combinations I am following for April

Grant Tuer/Oliver Stammers
Runs 7 - L L L L L L L

A D Brown/Paula Muir
Runs 2 - L L

K A Ryan/Kevin Stott
Runs 23 - L L L L L L W L L L L NR L L L L L NR L L L L L

Bets 32 - Profit 0 - Loss 250

Winning Price 4/1 NR NR

Around halfway through the month never shown a profit losses getting steep. Will keep going till the end of the month then revaluate the situation.

Today's Runner

Redcar
2.49 Jems Bond 5/1

Plus a couple of my own picks
Singles & double

Wolverhampton
3.01 Meng Tian 5/2

5.21 Carlos Felix 3/1

Good luck all CNBB.

Is there a reason for blindly backing these combinations ?

* I like the S.Woods trained selection (currently 3 from 6 in last 2 weeks), he is a very underrated trainer IMO, had some nice winners from his runners , including a 1st time out on Saturday backed from 16/1 into 11/2 .

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted (edited)

I notice a lot have gone for My Astra the Haggis horse and i can understand why. This is the most intriguing race today for me. Last year i had just 2 horses to follow One was the Fabre trained Midtown the other was Potapova neither delivered. Potapova won FTO at 1/5 so was no bet for me. it then had various excuses in good races therafter but looks to me like a typical M Stout improver he will have ironed out last seasons problems and i expect this horse to reach the top level conditional on whether it can do on turf what we know it can do on the AW. My Astra is no value at that silly price today but Potapova at around 5/2 is fine. so im am adding it to my "NOTEBOOK Horses thread"

Well i was correct in my assumption of the price of the fav, Potapova i think will come on for that and ran fine, Looked like jockey tried to beat the wrong horse and took his eye off the race in my opinion. but we shall see.

Edited by Zilzalian
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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted

Funny enough it was tricky to find selections today and have still had to compromise on a few prices

My Trixie is

4.15 Hunt Danny Whizzbang 2/1

4.55 Chep Sebastopol 16/5

5.21 Wolv Carlos Felix 3/1 (2nd Fav)

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 91.80 pts

Cover bets

4.15 Hunt Eagle Hill 1 pt at 5.8, Boughtbefoelunch 0.5 at 9/2 (short) and Innisfreelad 0.5 pts at 5/1 (short) NB omitted Truckin Away because of poor recent form)

4.55 Chep Mick Pastor 1 pt 9/2, Rikoboy 0.5 pts at 6/1 and Zambezi Fix 0.5 at 11/2 (short) NB omitted King DArgent as not been running well)

5.21 Wolv Crystal Starlet 1 pt 85/40 (short) Richard RHB 0.5 pts at 11/2 (short) and Bobba Tee 0.5 pts at 10/1 Nb Omitted Running Cloud and Antonine Road (Mark Johnstone, always dangerous to leave out.

The best I can do today

10 points staked

Had a little go in the Irish National for fun

the Favourite No. 4 1 pt win at 8/1 then 0.5 pts win on Run wild Fred 14/1, Time To Get up 12/1, Mister Fogpatches 16/1 and Full Time Score 9/1 = 3 pts staked 

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Posted
On 4/17/2022 at 1:12 PM, The Brigadier said:

Kempton 2.55

Four promising colts line up here for this one mile conditions stakes with arguably John and Thady Gosden’s Saga the form horse. Owned by Her Majesty The Queen he bumped into a couple of smart sorts on his first two starts as a juvenile in the Godolphin pair Modern Games (subsequent Breeders Cup winner) and Coroebus before breaking his duck at Ascot in September. He still has an entry in the 2000 Guineas. William Haggas saddles the main danger in Maljoom who won on his racecourse debut when pushed out to win a novices stakes at Doncaster on their opening Lincoln meeting. That form is not as good as Saga’s but he will have the edge in fitness you would have thought. Owen Burrow’s Bayraq brings the course form having won over a furlong shorter last October from an odds on shot of the Gosden’s. The Crisford’s Artois make up the quartet but looks likely to come up a bit short. On all known form Saga should be winning this and he’s a confident selection under Frankie Dettori. 

SAGA 4 points win @ 11/8 Paddy Power

 

Fairyhouse 3.15

Although there are seventeen runners declared for this 2m 5 1/2F handicap hurdle it may not be as competitive as it first looks. Many are out of sorts with the exception of the front two in the market who look the pair to concentrate on here. Carrig Sam had already won a point to point and a maiden hurdle here before taking a similar contest to this over a two furlong shorter trip. An 8lb rise is unlikely to stop him following up and the extra distance will be very much in his favour. Pushing him for current favouritism is the Gordon Elliot trained Festival D’Ex who actually finished 5 1/4L behind Carrig Sam here in February and is 5lb better off today. He has run well in defeat agin since at Naas but today preference has to be for the Arthur Moore trained Carrig Sam. The only other horse that appeals is the double green silks of Homme D’un Soir of Stuart Crawfords who has claims with the selection on recent running. 

CARRIG SAM 2 points each way @ 9/2 Bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Kempton 3.30

A decent turn out for the Racing TV Roseberry Handicap run over just short of 1m 4F. There’s some interesting handicappers here including a pair of Sir Michael Stoute runners in Boss Power to be ridden by Ryan Moore and perhaps of more interest the Richard Kingscote ridden Hasty Sailor who won his last two starts on the all weather rising 13lb. The pair of them though are having their first runs of the season, and with Stoute yet to have a winner this year couldn’t be backed with any real confidence. Fitness will not be an issue mind with my selection from the bottom of the handicap. Diamond Bay was very impressive on his comeback following a 141 day break when easing home over course and distance with his jockey Richard Kingscote looking around for non existent dangers. I’m not sure if there is any significance in the fact that Kingscote is now on the Stoute runner but such was the visual appeal of Diamond Bay that day that he has to be the selection here from a 7lb higher mark for trainer Tom Ward and jockey Tim Marquand. 

DIAMOND BAY @ 2 points each way @ William Hill 9/2 1/5 1234

 

Fairyhouse 3.50

A very competitive 2m 4F grade 2 hurdle with plenty with chances. JP McManus runs three with his stable jockey choosing Thedevilscoachman for Noel Meade who won the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle last time out at Navan having briefly flirted with chasing. He does have to carry a 5lb penalty for that victory here along with one of JP’s other runners Darasso and the P M Doyle trained Flame Bearer who is two from two at the track. Willie Mullins is always feared in these type of contests are saddles two in Whiskey Sour a runaway 15L winner last time out and Jon Snow who we haven’t seen for 606 days. Stable jockey number one Paul Townend appears to have chosen the former but that will only help the price of Jon Snow who will be partnered today by Brian Hayes. He looked a proper horse when we last saw him and is actually the highest rated of the field today. Whether he’s straight enough is another matter but at the prices I’ll pay to find out. 

JON SNOW 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Kempton 4.05

Only 7 fillies go to post for the listed Racing TV Snowdrop Fillies Stakes run over a mile. It should only really concern the front three in the market with Tom Ward’s Roman Mist the top rated. A consistent sort he maybe the fittest of the front trio and should go close. I do prefer the chances though of the William Haggas runner, My Astra who is making her all weather debut having won two of her three career starts, the latest coming in listed company at Salisbury last October on heavy ground. She had previously won on fast ground so it seems all ground comes alike to her. Sir Michael Stoute has yet to get off the mark for the year but has only had five runners so far. He saddles Potapova who kept decent company last season and was a very impressive winner on her only start on the all weather back in November 2020 at Chelmsford. It’s hard to split between the pair with slight preference for My Astra. 

MY ASTRA 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

Fairyhouse 4.20

Only six go to post for this 2m 4F Grade 2 Devenish Chase with Willie Mullins holding the aces saddling three of the six runners. Janidil was last seen running a credible 14L second to stable companion Allaho in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and despite a 8lb penalty here looks the one to be with. Owned by JP McManus he will be ridden by his retained pilot Mark Walsh. Mullins may provide the danger in the Paul Townend ridden Blackbow who on official ratings at these weights is only a pound below Janidil. He bounced back to form last March when landing the odds at Clonmel and can chase home the selection for a Mullins 1-2. 

JANIDILL 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill

 

Fairyhouse 5.00

This year’s BoyleSports Irish Grand National has once again attracted a full field of thirty runners and will be run over 3m 5F. Willie Mullins saddles the likely favourite in Gaillard Du Mesnil, a novice who ran third at the Cheltenham Festival in the Brown Advisory and could be seriously well handicapped. There’s many others with chances including a handful that ran in in last weekends Aintree Grand National including Mount Ida (unseated at first), Run Wild Fred (fell at 8th), Enjoy D’Allen (unseated at first), Samcro (finished a well beaten 11th), Death Duty unseated at 8th and School Boy Hours who almost fell at the 9th and was pulled up. I do feel that the latter, who his trainer Noel Meade has been extremely complimentary about has another big staying handicap like this in him (he won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas) and in a wide open contest is worth a small each way wager. 

SCHOOL BOY HOURS 1 point each way @ 14/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234567

 

Poor day - no winners - ouch !!

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted
On 4/17/2022 at 4:54 PM, calva decoy said:

I've done 3 .

RUN WILD FRED 14/ ( 7 places ) 

3 of the last 5 winners have won off a mark of 137 & two fit that profile 

SMOKING GUN 33/1 ( 7 places ) 

LORD LARIAT ( 7 places ) 

Both just small stakes fun stat bets .

There's that many meetings tomorrow reckon I'll set my alarm clock an hour earlier ?

 

Get in LORD LARIAT , was 80's last night ?

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