Racing Chat - Saturday 31st July

[The Brigadier]

The final day of Glorious Goodwood is upon us and I’m still fretting over ground conditions! Hopefully they’ll be no strong showers overnight and we’re looking at ground on the slow side of good.

 

Goodwood 120

Charlie Appleby has his Newmarket string in excellent shape and can take the opener on the final day of Glorious Goodwood with his Dubawi gelding to be ridden by stable jockey William Buick. He was last seen when running third in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, his first run since being gelded and despite a 5lb rise in the weights is the one to beat here. He’s only raced on a fast surface so he probably wouldn’t want the ground to deteriorate. Spirit Of Bermuda comes here on a hat trick and should go well although he’s never been that genuine a horse (to be fair to him he’s done little wrong in his two recent wins). 

QUINTILLUS 2 points win @ 4/1 Paddy Power

 

Goodwood 155

The consolation Stewards Cup is run over 6F and as one would expect has attracted a maximum field of 28. The ante post favourite for the Stewards Cup First Folio missed the big race by one and heads the weights here. He’s one of only 4 three year old’s in the race and should run his race although he is up 8lb for his latest win and has to give weight all round here. The draw is always a factor but on what I’ve seen this week I would say I would like to be drawn high or low and possibly not in the middle. Interestingly at the draw for the Stewards Cup on Thursday the trainers first initial picks were to be drawn very high. Royal Scimitar is an interesting runner but he wouldn’t want any more rain so he could only be fancied if the track missed the rain. Two horses here who are 7lb and 8lb well in are Power Over Me and Music Society. Of the pair my preference and my first pick here is for the latter. Trained by Tim Easterby he arrives in excellent form having finished runner up at Hamilton in the Scottish Stewards Cup and York for the Skybet Dash. He can race here today off of the same mark as the Hamilton race and 4lb lower than York. Cam Hardie takes over from Ella McCain and he is proven on all types of ground. His stall of 2 will hopefully be ok and he looks set to run a big race. On the other side and coming out of stall 26 is Abduction who’s form ties in with Music Society and although unproven on soft maybe worth a small saver at a very big price. 

MUSIC SOCIETY 1 ½ points each way @ 10/1 Bet365 ¼ 12345

ABDUCTION ½ point each way @ 25/1 Bet365 1/5 12345

 

Newmarket 210

A 12 runner nursery run over 6F and to be honest the race looks very hard to crack with several different form lines. To small stakes it maybe worth an each way wager on top weight Lady Ayresome who makes her handicap debut off of a mark of 89 which is further reduced by her 7lb claiming jockey Oisin McSweeney whose strike rate of 10 winners from just 68 rides is quite respectable. She’ll handle any ground having won on fast and heavy at Beverley this season. She was last seen when contesting the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and wasn’t totally disgraced when finishing 9th beaten 6 3/4L to Sandrine. 

LADY AYRESOME 1 point each way @ 8/1 ¼ 123 Bet365 

 

Goodwood 230

A competitive 1m 6F class 2 handicap with 14 going to post. Current favourite Nuits St Georges is two from three at the track but ideally wants soft ground. If the rain did arrive he would be the one to beat here. Prince Alex’s form also ties in with Nuits St Georges and has claims on his first run for Michael Bell but he also would appreciate any rain that falls. Another couple who would appreciate the ground softening are top weight On To Victory and Rhythmic Talent. The best value maybe the Crisford’s Aaddeey who holds a future entry in the Irish St Leger. The trip looked too short for him last time when a running on 7th beaten 4 3/4L in the John Smiths Cup at York and he may well improve for the step up half a mile. In an open handicap I’ll play small each way. 

AADDEEY 1 point each way @ 9/1 ¼ 123 Bet365

 

Newmarket 245

The listed Chalice Stakes is run over 12F and is for 3yo+ fillies and mares. The ante post favourite is Save A Forest who was last seen when running fourth, all be it at some distance, to Snowfall in the Epsom Oaks. She’s short enough for me especially in the first time cheek pieces. Frankel’s full sister Chiasma is an interesting runner but will need to step her form up to trouble these today. Yesyes is unbeaten in two starts and steps up in grade here. She looks useful and can run her race although wouldn’t want conditions to ease (she’s already been pulled out once this season due to softening ground). Charlie Appleby could be in for a bumper day and can take this with his improving filly Sayyida, a Dubawi half sister to Derby winner Masar. She’s on the upgrade and followed up her novice stakes victory by winning a handicap at the other Newmarket course back in June. She wouldn’t want the ground to ease but on fast ground she’s the selection here with James Doyle in the saddle. 

SAYYIDA 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365 

 

Goodwood 305

With rain around and the ground having plenty of juice in its hard to look beyond David Menuisier’s super mare Wonderful Tonight in the Group 2 1m 6F Lillie Langtry Stakes. She had her main danger (on ratings anyway) Albaflora 6L behind in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and she should confirm that form. The only three year old in the race Divinely is of some appeal but Aiden O’Brien hasn’t really been hitting the bullseye this week and has a bit to find anyway on the book. If the ground did dry out I would be interested in Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s who showed great tenacity to battle back and win a Newmarket listed race last time out. A race which is very much ground dependent - on easy ground it’s Wonderful Tonight’s to lose and on fast ground I’ld take her and Albaflora on with Golden Pass. 

 

Goodwood 340

We should get some draw clues from the earlier consolation race for this year’s  renewal of the Unibet Stewards Cup run over 6F. Fresh holds a decent chance having run Rohan close when runner up in the Wokingham handicap at Royal Ascot but he’s drawn in the middle in 16 and seems best on softish ground. Hurricane Ivor is 3lb well in here in this early closing race and is another with a big chance stepping up to 6F. Atalanta’s Boy is a very interesting runner who’s won 4 of his 5 starts at his local track here. His only defeat was in this race last year (when he carried my money !) when slowly away. He’s prone to doing that and did the same on his last two starts so comes with a warning. If I knew he was going to break on level terms he would be a bet for me but he’s just not one to trust. If the ground was very fast then top weight Chil Chil and Great Ambassador come into it but it’s unlikely to be rattling fast here. I’ll take a chance with the Mark Johnstone runner Meraas who has the assistance of Ryan Moore today. He’s in stall 24 and went off favourite for this race last year when only a three year old and tried to win the hard way from the front weakening inside the final furlong and finishing 6th beaten 2 1/4L. He’s 6lb lower today and with a couple of outings already behind him this season looks likely to run a big race. 

MERAAS 1 ½ points each way @ 14/1 1/5 1234567 William Hills

 

[Offramp]

I think this will be a good day for everyone! Good vibes sending your way.

[Villa Chris]

Bit of fun , no stakes, but these are top two rated in 4 of the races tomorrow at Goodwood 

1.20 

Spirit Of Bermuda 8.4, 10/3( non runner) 

Master Of Zoffany 8.25, 11/2 

1.55

Music Society 8.5, 8/1 

Power Over Me 8.25, 17/2

2.30

On To Victory 9.1, 9/1

Nuits St George’s 8.9, 7/1

3.40 

Hurricane Ivor 8.4, 5/1

Fresh 8.4, 6/1

Ejtilaab 8.3, 12/1

Commanche Falls 8.3, 12/1

Edited July 31, 2021 by Villa Chris
Update

[ipswich45]

I maybe biased but first folio for me we was very very unlucky and gutted not to get in because of his weight for age allowance taking him below the 28th horse 

 

Good luck to any fellow OG First Folio owners like me for tomorrow 

[Zilzalian]

As said yesterday i don't much like nursery's so this one will probably be my last one for the foreseeable.

1 Eternal Glory    125

2 Whistledown     118

3 Ellade               116

If i had to bet with my head it would have to be Ellade it has run in better races than this, but the figures obviously say Eternal Glory.

Like has been said above by @The Brigadier very tricky race this one so not to be taken too seriously.

[NAGNAGNAGNEIGH]

having had a week off due to not being able to string 2 results together i bounced back last week with a 52 point profit ( sorry i hate aftertimers too )

so thats the commentators curse ....

3.05 Goodwood :- I really cant see past Wonderful tonight but is it worth backing ? A winners a winner i hear you say. My preference is The Roger Varian filly ridden by Ray Dawson Believe in Love. This consistent filly should run well. Having won a group 3 last time out in Ireland she arrives in good form. The only real blip in her record is when she lost a shoe ay York and was eased right down as she lost her action.

Believe in love is a course winner which lets be honest is a bit of a bonus at Goodwood albeit in a class 3. She has improved massively since stepping up to 1m6f. Pace and ground should be fine.

Believe in Love in my opinion is better value for 3 places that backing wonderful tonight for 1 place

1pt each way

5 pts to place

Good luck to all

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by NAGNAGNAGNEIGH

[fd1972uk]

That's my bets, had the fav on at Goodn1350 but its the 2nd fav to be pulled in the last 24 hours, but had already backed Master Zoffany. 

May use the cashback offer for another in the race, will see. 

Just small bets on the multis, nearly there yesterday with a 60/1 treble that was put to bed by Path of Thunder, so hoping for a decent end. 

[alexcaruso808]

Good morning folks.  I'm just concentrating on one race today....

Newmarket

1.00 Feel the moment 6/1 - reared up at the start and is a non-runner.

1.00 Terra Mitica 8/1 - 2nd

1.35 Restless Endeavour 9/2 3rd

2.10 Cashew 8/1 - 6th

2.45 Sayyida 9/2 2nd 

2.45 Chiasma 8/1 6th

2.45 Portfolio 6/1 3rd

3.20 Untold Story 7/2  1st ?

3.55 Existant 6/1 7th  

All prices Bet365

 

Good luck!

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365 and 1pt e/w:

1.20 Goodwood - Run To Freedom @ 13/2

1.55 Goodwood - Abduction @ 14/1

2.30 Goodwood - Future Investment @ 10/1

3.05 Goodwood - Albaflora @ 13/2

3.40 Goodwood - Ostilio @ 25/1

4.10 Goodwood - Cephalus @ 28/1

4.45 Goodwood - Calcutta Cup @ 10/1

[roger2256]

July +1.5

1pt level stakes win only 

15.40 Gd Lampang 28/1

15.40 Gd Hey Jonesy 33/1 

Prices as of now b365 

[cannotbebeat]

3.55 Newmarket Final Watch 15/4

Good luck all CNBB.

[black rabbit]

Boundless Power   1 55 good   1/2 pt win  16/1 

Win o Clock  1/2  pt win  10/1     2 30  good 

Montagally    3 40 good  1/2 pt win  36/1 

Ebury  4 45 good 1/2  pt win  16/1  

P/L  =  +  114 pts

 

[azzybear]

urban artist 2.30 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Goodwood 3.05

WONDERFUL TONIGHT 8/11

[The Equaliser]

Not much time before lunch so I'll put up the first two races at Goodwood

1.20 Dark shift £2 win at 6.6 & Run To Freedom £2 win at 10.0 = £15.68

1.55 Music Society £2 win at 9.36 = £14.9 & Bickerstaffe £2 win at 6.8 = £9.41

Total stakes so far = £8.00

Back later

3.05 Believe In Love £1 win at 10/1 and Divinely £1 win at 8/1

3.40 Hurricane Ivor £3 win at 8.6 = £22.34 profit if it wins

4.10 Ring Of Beara £6.01 at 4.4 = £20.03

4.45 Rebel Territory £5 win at 5.10 = £20.09 if it wins (Last festival bet for me)

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by The Equaliser
Update

[alancraik]

sorry for the late posting, a couple of things came up

todays Goodwood selections

checked the scores a couple of times, thought I had made a mistake but came up with the same results except first race

13:20 Oo De Lally 7.0 e/w + Red Mirage 13.0 e/w

13:55 Embour 51.0 e/w

14:30 Nuits St Georges 10.0 e/w

15:05 Wonderful Tonight 1.67 Win

15:40 Summerghand 19.0 e/w

16:45 Zwayyan 23.0 e/w

[Villa Chris]

19 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Bit of fun , no stakes, but these are top two rated in 4 of the races tomorrow at Goodwood 

1.20 

Spirit Of Bermuda 8.4, 10/3( non runner) 

Master Of Zoffany 8.25, 11/2 

1.55

Music Society 8.5, 8/1 

Power Over Me 8.25, 17/2

2.30

On To Victory 9.1, 9/1

Nuits St George’s 8.9, 7/1

3.40 

Hurricane Ivor 8.4, 5/1

Fresh 8.4, 6/1

Ejtilaab 8.3, 12/1

Commanche Falls 8.3, 12/1

Did well in the big fields. The 1.55 was a 25 runner race and my top two came 3rd  and 4th at 8/1 and 17/2. The 3.40 , 24 runner race joint second rated wins at 12/1. The other two races I couldn’t land a blow . 9 selections 1 point win  stakes would have returned a profit of 4 points. Not sure I’d have had a successful festival overall , and I’m happy to leave the flats alone, for the most part anyway.  

p.s EW would have returned a profit of only around 2.5 points 
 

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Villa Chris

[fd1972uk]

Did choose the winner in the end, pity it wasn't with Sky as they up to SP, didn't have lucky with cashback though. 

2 winners though, so profit for the day. 

Looking back Believe in Love was a poor choice, was only 3 places but with nr went down with 2.

Not that I would have dropped BIL from the treble, I was thinking of adding Coman he Falls, would have been better if I'd have done a multiple bet (patent, lucky 15 or such). 

[NAGNAGNAGNEIGH]

i literally give up posting as its all a load of bollix

i had 3 from 4 today but the one i had up lost

pure bullshit.

im done take care

 

 

[Villa Chris]

33 minutes ago, NAGNAGNAGNEIGH said:

i literally give up posting as its all a load of bollix

i had 3 from 4 today but the one i had up lost

pure bullshit.

im done take care

 

 

Why didn’t you put all 4 up ? It’s not easy, that’s for sure . 

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much time before lunch so I'll put up the first two races at Goodwood

1.20 Dark shift £2 win at 6.6 & Run To Freedom £2 win at 10.0 = £15.68

1.55 Music Society £2 win at 9.36 = £14.9 & Bickerstaffe £2 win at 6.8 = £9.41

Total stakes so far = £8.00

Back later

3.05 Believe In Love £1 win at 10/1 and Divinely £1 win at 8/1

3.40 Hurricane Ivor £3 win at 8.6 = £22.34 profit if it wins

4.10 Ring Of Beara £6.01 at 4.4 = £20.03

4.45 Rebel Territory £5 win at 5.10 = £20.09 if it wins (Last festival bet for me)

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Just the one winner today which was Rebel Territory.  Because there were non-runners in the run up to the race My profit was reduced to £17.73.  I hate it when Betfair do this to me because very often the price drifts back out again to my original price.  Anyway my net loss for the day was £1.28.  This makes my new balance  £685.28 (Bank £1056.22).  I lost £36.26 over the 5 day festival but did have a lot of fun so I can't complain, wouldn't do any good if I did.

A few class 3 events tomorrow; the class 1 event has a 4/6 favourite so I will probably give it a miss

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Goodwood 3.05

WONDERFUL TONIGHT 8/11

Won at 1.83 BSP.

25 / 79 + 21.91 lsp.

Good to finish the month with a winner after a run of 8 losers. A profit of 11.63 points for the month.