Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th July

[The Brigadier]

Day one of Glorious Goodwood and for once we know what the ground conditions will be. Soft (good to soft in places) is the official call and with thunder storms possible we’re looking for soft ground performers. He’s my thoughts on the 5 ITV races :- 

1.50

The 10F Chesterfield Cup Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 18 with low drawn horses favoured due to the turning nature of the track. There’s likely to be a pace burn up on the inside with Majestic Dawn (stall 1), Cockalorum (stall 2) and last years winner Maydanny (stall 5) all wanting to lead. The last named is 12lb higher than last years 5L victory but has to prove he is as effective on soft as he is fast and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he was taken out to wait for the Golden Mile on Friday when the ground may have dried out. Majestic Dawn is the one I like, he won last years Cambridgeshire when making all in first time blinkers and has presumably prepped for this valuable handicap when running a credible 3rd at Windsor over a trip too short and without his customary blinkers. Back over 10F on ground he appears to like (he has actually won on heavy ground) and with the blinkers re-applied he holds an excellent chance for Paul and Oliver Cole.  Migration was a massive eye catcher in his re-appearance at Salisbury but will need some Buick magic from his wide draw. 

MAJESTIC DAWN 2 points each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

2.25

The 7F Vintage Stakes is a Group 2 contest for 2yo’s only. There’s doubts on the ground for both the front pair here with Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow having only run on good to firm. I’m against him not only on the ground but the Coventry form from Royal Ascot has not worked out. 13 horses from that race have run since and only one of them have won. Under a 3lb penalty I’m happy to oppose him and likewise Hannon’s Lusail who’s only run on soft was to rival Angel Bleu at Pontefract when beaten 3 1/4L. It’s a shame there’s not 8 runners here as I do fancy Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu who’s the only one of the seven that has proven form on soft. That was at the aforementioned Pontefract in May. He flopped in the Coventry behind Berkshire Shadow on fast ground where he also had his excuses and was seen only last Saturday when running well against the highly thought of Godolphin colt New Science at Ascot .He looked like he was going to win that day until swerving away inside the final furlong and only going down by a length. For a horse that has already comprehensively beaten Lusail and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori he looks massively overpriced when you consider Lusail is a 15/8 shot and Angel Bleu can be backed at 14/1. There’s only 7 runners and I wouldn’t normally play each way with that amount of runners but at that price I am making an exception and am backing him each way 1/4 odds 1-2. 

ANGEL BLEU 2 points each way @ 12/1 1/4 1-2 Boylesports

 

300

The Group 2 Lennox Stakes is run over 7F and does have a draw bias as they race into a right hand bend and low drawn horses would be favoured. King George winning trainer Charlie Appleby saddles two here in last years winner Space Blues and the progressive three year old Creative Force. Buick appears to have chosen the former but I think he may have called wrong this time. Like last year Space Blues has a wide draw (he was drawn 10 then and 12 now) but he hasn’t been seen since flopping at Meydan over 6F in March and more importantly appears better suited by fast ground. Stablemate and the ride of James Doyle, Creative Force has proven form on soft ground a decent draw in 2 and although rated officially 6lb inferior to Space Blues looks sure to run a big race. Kinross will like the conditions but here’s drawn on the wide outside which is a negative to me and the ground appears to have gone for track specialist Duke Of Hazzard. 

CREATIVE FORCE 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

335

The Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup is a group 1 contest run over 2 miles and is all about John and Thady Gosden’s superstar stayer Stradivarius. He’s won this race the last four years and is going for a remarkable fifth win. He was given a rare shocking ride from Frankie Dettori in the Ascot Gold Cup when given far too much to do and getting himself into trouble some way out. There’s no doubt he’s the one they all have to beat and despite what connections and some pundits say he won’t mind the ground as his most eye catching victory was on soft ground in last years Ascot Gold Cup when I’ve never seen a horse accelerate away from his field on soft ground over a distance so impressively before. It would be great for the game if he could win again but there is not room for sentiment when gambling and at the prices I’m happy to take him on with Alan King’s stayer Trueshan. He was very impressive when taking his field apart in last years Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot in October with Stradivarius well beaten. That was on soft ground and that’s obviously the key to this 5 year old gelding. He’s had two outings this season, a good second to Japan in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester giving him 5lb and more recently when attempting to lug a massive weight in the Northumberland Plate without being disgraced in 6th place. Hollie Doyle rides and he looks fair value to beat Stradivarius although I must admit if the veteran wins I’ll be cheering him home as well. 

TRUESHAN 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365 

 

410

Ishvara EW

A typically tricky to solve 5F handicap completes ITV’s 5 races. Bets should be kept to a minimum as the draw will no doubt play a part here as well. The two favourites King Of Stars and Rewaayat have to conclusively prove that they can handle softish ground and for a small stake I’m looking at a big outsider here who’s career form figures on soft ground read 201220. The horse is Ishvara, trained  at Newmarket by Robert Cowell and is visored for the first time. He has to put a couple of moderate runs this season behind him but in the hope the ground and visor spark him up I’ll play to a small each way stake. 

ISHVARA ½ point each way @ 50/1 1/4 1234 Bet365

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures for the 225 2yo G2 at Goodwood.

1 Angel Blue                     123++

2 lusail                              125

3 Birkshire Royal              124

The top rated is Angel Blue due to its soft ground win and defeat of Lusail in soft ground.

the win and Forecast (7.5/1) will pay for the day

Edited July 27, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[fd1972uk]

Angel Bleu has my eye too, mind you it's risk free (we'll ultimately.I can lose) as Paddy Power are doing money back.as free bet on all losers. 

So basically I'll use the free bet anyways. 

[roger2256]

July -10

1pt level stakes win only 

13.50 Gd Sky Defender 12/1 PP

15.00 Gd Happy Power 16/1 PP

16.10 Gd Pettochside 22/1 PP

Prices as of now 

18.35 Wor Percy Pi 16/1 b365

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[fd1972uk]

Think that's me for tomorrow. 

[The Brigadier]

29 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Think that's me for tomorrow. 

Lot of love for Angel Bleu here tonight - fingers crossed 

[ipswich45]

wonder if Reg Dwight is going to be on Rockett Man tomorrow in the 1630 Yarmouth   (sorry)

Yarmouth
1415 - 3 Cherry Cola
1525 - 2 Pactolus

Worcester
1805 - 6 Atlantic Storm
1905 - 8 I'm So Busy
2005 - 2 Ginger Du Val

Perth
2055 - 2 Foxey

Galway Day 2
1635 - 7 Moving For Gold
1710 - 13 Twinkle
1745 - 2 Surrounding
1815 - 1 Njord
1845 - 3 Baseman
1915 - 8 Out On Friday
1945 - 11 Court Of Appeal
2015 - 9 Auckland

Edited July 27, 2021 by ipswich45
Galway N/R replaced

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.50 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Lucander @ 11/1

Looks relatively well handicapped compared to some of these and will handle conditions better than most. Ran a bit flat the last couple of races but had an excuse last time and the return to softer ground looks sure to suit. 

2.25 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Austrian Theory @ 28/1

Don't want to back anything at short prices here given the wildly different conditions they are facing and I'll chance the Johnston horse who is bred to stay well and might just handle the conditions better than some of these. Won nicely on debut in a decent race and was a bit below par at Newmarket last time but the yard's horses can be inconsistent so will have a small go each way at a big price.

3.00 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Safe Voyage @ 8/1

Have to believe that this one's return to form at Chester last time is legitimate after two poor runs to start the season but if back to his best, he'll have a rock solid each-way chance here. Relishes deep ground and is a genuine group 1 horse when the surface is bottomless. Ran a good 4th in this last year when not getting his conditions and I think he can run well this afternoon.

3.35 Goodwood - 3pts win Trueshan @ 9/4

Gets his conditions and ran well under a big weight in the Northumberland Plate. Stradivarius wasn't as unlucky as some think at Ascot and think he's vulnerable again.

4.10 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Zargun @ 12/1

Showed up well early in the season in sprints and I think will relish the fast 5f here assuming he can get off to a good start. Has plenty of pace and has just been reeled in late a couple of times this season. Had excuses at Ascot last time and I think has a big each-way chance if getting a solid early position here.

4.45 Goodwood - 2pts win Olivetti @ 9/2

Half brother to Perotto and shaped well on debut considering Marcus Tregoning's debutants typically come on plenty for the run. Conditions ought to suit and with natural improvement highly likely, should go close.

[Zilzalian]

12 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Lot of love for Angel Bleu here tonight - fingers crossed 

Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.

[fd1972uk]

Angel Bleu, Sure I saw it down to 3/1 now. 

Jabbarockie has been pulled from my treble e/w, but will leave as is. 

Edited July 27, 2021 by fd1972uk

[azzybear]

stradivarius 3.35 just hope  frankie gives the horse a better ride and don't get boxed in  like last time 

[The Equaliser]

I reckon that my best tip for PL mermbers today is to look at Perth for their selections.  I haven't got around to it yet but will do so later. 

You can lose a lot of money fast on these festival meetings.  However, I will be back with small stakes for selections so as not to be a complete party pooper

Yet to look at Perth but:

7.05 Neachells Bridge £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins

8.35 Worc Right Destination £4 win at 7 = £23.52 profit if it wins.  Trying to £2 win matched at 3.0 on Pillar Of Steel (gone up a lot in the weights recently) as an insurance cover bet um 2.76 right now

Poss £8 staked so far

[alancraik]

my Goodwood selections

I scored the races on good going, now the going is heavy so a big ? mark
Bets are all small stakes

1:50 - Johnny Drama e/w

2:25 - Berkshire Shadow win

3:00 - Space Blues win

3:35 - Stradivarius win

4:10 - Only Spoofing e/w

5:20 - Ananya e/w

5:50 - Gellhorn win

PS, Reason for my lack of posting, I am only scoring races at big meeting,

[Zilzalian]

13 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Lot of love for Angel Bleu here tonight - fingers crossed 

Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.

[Zilzalian]

Just now, Zilzalian said:

Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.

most interesting piece of form on heavy ground is Escobar, Currently 40/1. Beating Lord north on said heavy ground.

[alexcaruso808]

My picks for today....  All prices Bet365

1.50 Goodwood - Johnny Drama - 10/1 EW

3.00 Goodwood - Creative Force - 3/1 Win

 

2.40 Bev - Dick Datchery - 5/1 Win

3.50 Bev - Harvest Day - 7/1 EW

 

1.10 Yarmouth - Hi Ho Silver - 15/2 EW

 

Good luck all.

 

[black rabbit]

Sky defender  1 50 good   1/2  pt win   18/1  betfair 

Blue vega     4  10  good   1/2  pt win   15/1  betfair  

ESCOBAR   3  0 0  good  1/4  pt win  44/1  betfair

Serpentine  3 35  good  1/4  pt  win  24/1  betfair

 

P/L  =  +  114.5  pts

[The Equaliser]

47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I reckon that my best tip for PL mermbers today is to look at Perth for their selections.  I haven't got around to it yet but will do so later. 

You can lose a lot of money fast on these festival meetings.  However, I will be back with small stakes for selections so as not to be a complete party pooper

Yet to look at Perth but:

7.05 Neachells Bridge £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins

8.35 Worc Right Destination £4 win at 7 = £23.52 profit if it wins.  Trying to £2 win matched at 3.0 on Pillar Of Steel (gone up a lot in the weights recently) as an insurance cover bet um 2.76 right now

Poss £8 staked so far

My first 3 fun picks at Goodwood

1.50 Majestic Dawn 70p win at 9/1; Caradoc 70p win at 12/1 and Its a Good Laugh 70p win at 8/1 = £2.10 total spend

2.25 Eldrick Jones £2.10 win at 6.2

3.00 Space Blues £2.15 win at 4.4 = £7.16 profit if it wins.  Interesting that Will Buick is on this instead of the favourite

£6.35 total spend on glorious Goodwood so far ?

 

[Villa Chris]

32 non runners so far at Goodwood . Haven’t had time to really go through the cards so I’m passing . Might have a go at the jumps tonight 

[cannotbebeat]

2.40 Beverley Ava Go Joe 2/1

2.15 Yarmouth Summer's Knight 1/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[fd1972uk]

30p reduction on 1425 race, nearly whipped a 3rd of winnings off for me. 

If it wasnt a money back for all I'd probably have cashed out Tbh as I'd have been 60% up on my original bet. 

[ipswich45]

whilst in the bookies doing my placepot today   they said that John Gosden will watch the first race before making a decision if to run Stradivarius this afternoon but didnt look good 

[yossa6133]

Hell of a drift on Stradivarius, 5/6 out to 9/4. Trueshan 11/2 into 15/8. Seems a bit of an overreaction to me.

[ipswich45]

Stradivarius is OUT

[fd1972uk]

Phew, well done Frankie. 

Favourite gave himself too much to do, was gaining all the time. 

Decent return but those reductions really are a kick in the nether regions. 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Yarmouth 4.00

HABANERO STAR 11/2

[Ironjoe]

Bit late to the party all goodwood

3. Happy power 1pt ew 12/1

3.35 amhrann na bhiffan 1pt ew 12/1

4.10 blue de vega 1pt win 10/1

5.20 nebulosa 5/2 2pt win

Good luck ? 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My first 3 fun picks at Goodwood

1.50 Majestic Dawn 70p win at 9/1; Caradoc 70p win at 12/1 and Its a Good Laugh 70p win at 8/1 = £2.10 total spend

2.25 Eldrick Jones £2.10 win at 6.2

3.00 Space Blues £2.15 win at 4.4 = £7.16 profit if it wins.  Interesting that Will Buick is on this instead of the favourite

£6.35 total spend on glorious Goodwood so far ?

 

I am loving it seeing some well fancied selections going in

3.35 Gd Nayef Road 3TBP £2 at 6.0 = £9.80 if within the first 3

4.10 Gd Blue De Vega £1 win at 10/1 with Oisin aboard.  Has form on soft

 

[The Equaliser]

30 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I am loving it seeing some well fancied selections going in

3.35 Gd Nayef Road 3TBP £2 at 6.0 = £9.80 if within the first 3

4.10 Gd Blue De Vega £1 win at 10/1 with Oisin aboard.  Has form on soft

 

Wonderful with the favourites obliging, I do hope that my PL members are making some money

The last of my fun bets at Goodwood are:

4.10 Blue De Vega £1 win at10/1

4.45 Monets sunrise £1 win at 12/1

5.20 Separate £5 "free" bet, with Bet365; don't know how I got it ) at 10/1

5.50 Shepherds Way £1 win at 8/1

Looks like my total stakes are £11.35 at Goodwood today

 

 

[azzybear]

Knight destroyer 5.45