richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Midland national saturday Truckers lodge 8.0 20/1 Captain drake 7.7 12/1 Ramses de teille 7.5 Regal encore 7.3 40/1 The two amigos 7.1 Time to get up 7.0 Dont like ramses and two amigos based on recent form and trends ....hard to know what time to get up is going to be ....hes been consistently gambled on over past couple days into 3/1 but a horse stepping up 3 classes and 10f ....3/1 is dire value .... I'd rather back truckers ...captain ...and regal encore even though the latter is,way out age trend but 40/1 is way overpriced so all value bets to take this fav on Truckers lodge 5pts ew 20/1 5places Captain drake 5pts ew 12/1 5places Regal encore 5pts ew 40/1 5 places Villa Chris, Wildgarden, vikki37 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 That’s it Richard, relentless ratings. richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 4th in the last race of the day 33/1 ....lol Villa Chris and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 How did trends work at Cheltenham. I personally thought they were a bit all over the place . Makes you wonder if it’s worth applying them and missing out on big odds . I rarely used them at the festival and from what I noticed a lot of winners weren’t trend horses. I find them a bit iffy to use anyway. I mean don’t mind using the odd one but that’s it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 41 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: How did trends work at Cheltenham. I personally thought they were a bit all over the place . Makes you wonder if it’s worth applying them and missing out on big odds . I rarely used them at the festival and from what I noticed a lot of winners weren’t trend horses. I find them a bit iffy to use anyway. I mean don’t mind using the odd one but that’s it. Have to say usually on the weekly races they can help you narrow down selections quickly ......I agree they didn't seem to hold up at chelt but it's a funny year .....I think what Ive learned is if they have a good rating then any of the top 6 can win at any price or any age ....so I think it's all down to value .....I think the new rule is back the best price for as many places as you can ... At some point we are gonna have to make a chart of what's better ...a 16/1 5 places 1/5 odds or a 14/1 6places 1/5 odds etc .....and all the other combos because its difficult to tell ......unless someone already knows ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 3 hours ago, sebotobes said: Does it only really work on handicaps? I’ve been using LTO, Won off mark?, Won in class? Distance? Going? just thinking how to improve it a bit cos those figures won’t take into account a horse that’s been rising through classes and now in the first race of this class etc, cos it’s figures could be skewed by a low score for not having previous in the class etc. going to spend some time figuring out a good scoring system as well as at the minute LTO being 1/2 = say 10pts, but need to work out how to quantify the difference between winning a 5 runner race and winning a 20 runner race etc. Also stuff like factoring in yard/jockey form. I think i could do some data analysis to see trends between longer odds horses winning races when yard is in form etc, but then its the dilemma of figuring out a multiplier to represent that. Lots of time to practise before aintree i guess lol! I dropped the lto but I used to use it .....80% of races are won by top 6 lto so in some races you can chop the field quickly but like u said its biased against class ....so a winner in a class 6 can score 3pts and a 4th in class 3 can score 2 pts ....that's not right lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebotobes Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Have to say usually on the weekly races they can help you narrow down selections quickly ......I agree they didn't seem to hold up at chelt but it's a funny year .....I think what Ive learned is if they have a good rating then any of the top 6 can win at any price or any age ....so I think it's all down to value .....I think the new rule is back the best price for as many places as you can ... At some point we are gonna have to make a chart of what's better ...a 16/1 5 places 1/5 odds or a 14/1 6places 1/5 odds etc .....and all the other combos because its difficult to tell ......unless someone already knows ???? That’d be an expected value formula which would be something like (%Win * £W) - (%Lose * £L) to get the Win part (%Place * £W) - (%Lose * £L) to get the place part %Win and %Place would be based on your calculated probabilities though, and you only give it odds for winning don’t ya, not for placing so, would be difficult to workout. Youd have to assign place odds to your system as well to find out then i guess just add them together. I’ll figure it out tomorrow or something as i’m 4 pints deep and still licking my wounds from going hard on A Plus Tard lol richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Updated stats for march; will try post some winners tomorrow but still got 3 yet to rate, 3 down. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Updated stats for march; will try post some winners tomorrow but still got 3 yet to rate, 3 down. Seems to confirm the back the top 3 strategy Edited March 19, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: I dropped the lto but I used to use it .....80% of races are won by top 6 lto so in some races you can chop the field quickly but like u said its biased against class ....so a winner in a class 6 can score 3pts and a 4th in class 3 can score 2 pts ....that's not right lol Need to add the video bonus ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Seems to confirm the back the top 3 strate Only for my picks which can vary with my bonuses I give compared to everyone else. Others may find there value ones win rather than higher rated I've integrated my normal systems into the ratings which where already good. Made a bit better. Edited March 19, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Only for my picks which can vary with my bonuses I give compared to everyone else. To be fair I have started giving bonuses for horses that were hampered....or won easy ...readily ...going away etc ...and it seems to be holding up ok so far ? Edited March 19, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 500 Wolverhampton cafe milano 14-1 paddy power 600 wolverhampon Gabriel the devil 8-1 paddy power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: To be fair I have started giving bonuses for horses that were hampered....or won easy ...readily ...going away etc ...and it seems to be holding up ok so far ? What about ones that have been unlucky in running and what about the pace wasn't right watching video... Ah see u did hampered lol Edited March 19, 2021 by Wildgarden richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 (edited) Midlands National Captain Drake 7.7 Achille 7.65 6th Mighty Thunder 7.35 2nd The Two Amigos 7.3 Screaming Colours 7.2 4th Regal Encore 7.2 Im happy to dismiss The Two Amigos(No room for error) and Regal Encore (Weight, age, course not Ascot) . I’ll play the top 3 ew . Bit concerned about Screaming Colours who will love this test of stamina , but the ratings are the ratings. Captain Drake 11/1 ew Achille 12/1 ew Mighty Thunder 16/1 ew Edited March 20, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Thinking of having a small play on the forecast/tricast . I’ve selected my top 3 selections on the forecast and I’ve ticked “Any” which means those 3 in any order. Not sure which to select when it says Combination forecast, combination Tricast , Tricast , though ????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Thinking of having a small play on the forecast/tricast . I’ve selected my top 3 selections on the forecast and I’ve ticked “Any” which means those 3 in any order. Not sure which to select when it says Combination forecast, combination Tricast , Tricast , though ????? Forcast top 2 so do tricast of top 3 u want pays more but harder to get. I get forcast right every few races but tricast only every 10 or so. And that is doing 3 horses forecast combo and 3-4 tricast. Edited March 20, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 (edited) Would suggest to anyone to not rate turf season seriously till may, let some form come in first. Edited March 20, 2021 by Wildgarden MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Forcast top 2 so do tricast of top 3 u want pays more but harder to get. I get forcast right every few races but tricast only every 10 or so. And that is doing 3 horses forecast combo and 3-4 tricast. Yeah I’ve done the Tricast on the top 3 of my ratings . 20 runner race and big odds so unlikely , but small stakes. Might get lucky . Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Would suggest to anyone to not rate turf season seriously till may, let some form come in first. Yes mate I’ve no intention of doing ratings for flats until may . Will continue with jumps up until Aintree festival then have break until may . Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 I’ve done the combination Tricast . So does that mean any of those 3 horses can finish anywhere in the top 3 in no particular order ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: I’ve done the combination Tricast . So does that mean any of those 3 horses can finish anywhere in the top 3 in no particular order ? Yep that's it 6 bets Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: I’ve done the combination Tricast . So does that mean any of those 3 horses can finish anywhere in the top 3 in no particular order ? The use of any is wrong, ALL 3 have to be in the first three places, but doing the combination of 6 bets means you cover all 6 potential outcomes so all 3 can finish in any order, trouble is it doesn’t happen often. Normally pick 3 for the forecast, think I would be doing 4 for the tricast but then you are into 24 combinations, and starts getting expensive. Depends how accurate your ratings are, certainly think you could hit them every now and again looking at yours and Richards results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 (edited) 57 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said: The use of any is wrong, ALL 3 have to be in the first three places, but doing the combination of 6 bets means you cover all 6 potential outcomes so all 3 can finish in any order, trouble is it doesn’t happen often. Normally pick 3 for the forecast, think I would be doing 4 for the tricast but then you are into 24 combinations, and starts getting expensive. Depends how accurate your ratings are, certainly think you could hit them every now and again looking at yours and Richards results. Not easy by any means but cheap enough bet for potentially a nice return. Well the one race at Cheltenham my ratings had the top 3 but not in order and I had a 1&2 in order . Bit of fun, see how it goes . Some races I’d probably just do the forecast 1&2. Not sure what I’d get back but hopefully can land a nice one now and again. p.s what do you mean when saying “The use of any is wrong” Edited March 20, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: p.s what do you mean when saying “The use of any is wrong” Being a bit through 1 hour ago, Alley Cat Glover said: So does that mean any of That first any needs to read all. I know what you mean, you know what you mean but just read wrong to me. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Got ya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Would suggest to anyone to not rate turf season seriously till may, let some form come in first. Agree. I always do flat May to October and jumps November to April. Villa Chris and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 19 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Midland national saturday Truckers lodge 8.0 20/1 Captain drake 7.7 12/1 Ramses de teille 7.5 Regal encore 7.3 40/1 The two amigos 7.1 Time to get up 7.0 4 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Midlands National Captain Drake 7.7 Achille 7.65 Mighty Thunder 7.35 The Two Amigos 7.3 Screaming Colours 7.2 Regal Encore 7.2 Skybet 7 places only offering 50/1 Regal Encore will take SP 1pt E/W hoping for 66 or 80’s. Especially with a couple of horses which appear to be overly supported. Try the forecast and tricast with RE plus Capt Drake and Achille Villa Chris and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Agree. I always do flat May to October and jumps November to April. Once champions day at Ascot(October) has finished that’s end of the flats for me. Same with National, once that’s over that the jumps over with. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 54 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Once champions day at Ascot(October) has finished that’s end of the flats for me. Same with National, once that’s over that the jumps over with. I must admit I do like the Scottish National and the big chase on the last Saturday at Sandown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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