Pricing your own race

[sebotobes]

40 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Second and 4th rated won but no money back 

when you say "rated", what do you mean? are these ratings that you assign to your horses via your formula? I have drafted up my own system based on spying on this forum lately lol, but I often find I have quite a few horses that have longer odds than what my system says. How do you pick which ones to back? ie in my practice system, you see 4 horses there that are above "value", do you just back all 4 normally?

 

[Villa Chris]

23 minutes ago, sebotobes said:

when you say "rated", what do you mean? are these ratings that you assign to your horses via your formula? I have drafted up my own system based on spying on this forum lately lol, but I often find I have quite a few horses that have longer odds than what my system says. How do you pick which ones to back? ie in my practice system, you see 4 horses there that are above "value", do you just back all 4 normally?

 

Yeah they are ratings that I assign to the horses. Regarding value, it’s still a topic we’ve not got to the bottom of. For example let’s pretend we have a 10 horse race .

Horse A 3/1, but should be 5/1 on your odds 

Horse B 5/1, should be 6/1

Horse C 6/1 , you have it 6/1

Horse D 12/1, should be 8/1

horse D is the value bet, but do you ignore your ratings and ignore the top 1 or 2 rated because they are no value on your odds . As they say a 5/1 winner is better than nothing . For the festival I’ve not been doing my own odds, I’ve just bet the top 2 or 3 rated. As it’s Cheltenham you get good odds anyway so I’ve played most ew . Regarding value how far the list do you go down in your ratings in order to play the value bet? Depends on how many runners there are and how many places being paid I suppose. A normal Saturday depending on how many runners I’ll bet top rated and the value bet providing its near the top in ratings, but some races I’ll just bet top rated. In that race you’ve put up I’d say picking 4 horses is a bit OTT IMO , but each to there own. I like to stick to 1 or 2 normally but Cheltenham is big fields so pick 2 or 3. 

[Villa Chris]

19 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

The Plate 

The Shunter 7.95 won 

Farclas 7.9 second 

Mister Whitaker 7.8

Oldgrangewood 7.7

Happy Diva 7.65

A Wave Of The Sea 7.3

The Shunter 4/1 10 point win 

Farclas 11/2 10 point win 

Mister Whitaker 14/1 ew 5 points ew

Got this bang on . Returned 50 points 

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Kim Muir 

Storm Control 8.8 6th 

Bob Mahler 8.6

Shantou Flyer 7.7 3rd 

Diese Aba 7.3

Plan Of Attack 7.25

Storm Control 16/1 5 points ew 

Bob Mahler 18/1 5 points ew 

Shantou Flyer 10/1 5 points ew 

Ew money back . 

[richard-westwood]

What a near miss festival it's been....6or 7 .20 runner races and I've had 2nd 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 5th ...guess it's just one of those years ....??

[Villa Chris]

One last throw of the dice tomorrow 

[richard-westwood]

County hurdle fri

Le Patriote  8.8. 65.0 

Milkwood  7.5  34.0 

Thyme white  7.2 30.0 

Massive prices on top 3 .....last roll of the dice lol.....20pt wins all 3 

 

[Villa Chris]

County Hurdle 

Petite Mouchoir 8.9 28/1 2nd 

Darraso 7.95 40/1 

Fifty Ball 7.6 12/1 

Edwardstone 7.35 5th 

Top 2 ew and 3rd  rated on the nose as it’s a trend horse . Paying 8 places .

 

Edited March 19, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

39 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

County Hurdle 

Petite Mouchoir 8.9 28/1 

Le Patriote 8.1 50/1 

Darraso 7.95 40/1 

Fifty Ball 7.6 12/1 

Edwardstone 7.35 

Top 3 ew and 4th rated on the nose as it’s a trend horse . Paying 8 places .

 

Le patriote .....is it time for the biggy lol ......probably finish 2nd ..?????

Edited March 18, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

Just now, richard-westwood said:

Le patriote .....is it time for the biggy lol 

Let’s hope so mate . Would have to break a few trends but yard in good form and conditions to suit . 

[richard-westwood]

Martin pipe conditional 

Eglatine de seuil 8.0 33/1 

Amour de nuit  8.0 85.0 

Whatsupwithyou 7.6  75.0 

Absolutely silly prices .....lol ......down to the betting gods 3x 20pt wins 

 

[richard-westwood]

As you know this year I was adamant I was gonna try for the big win ....I could have gone ew and got lots of small wins but the excitement is in the big wins for me so I had to try .....but if you want to see how well the value ratings work or how close I've come ....look at the results to end thurs top 6 horses rated or top3 in yest as I was rushing with either sp...or prices I got before race 

Tues ultima 

Happy  2nd 7/1 

Cepage  4th 24/1 

Discord  6th 16/1 

One for team 5th 17/2 

Aye right 3rd  11/2 

 

Boodles tuesday 

Saint sam  2nd  11/2 

Busselton 

Nassalam 

Hous gris   4th 11/2 

Coltor   5th  12/1 

 

Coral cup weds 

Craigniche   2nd 12/1 

 

Grand annual weds 

Chosen 

Western 

Embittered 

Skypirate  won 14/1 

Ibleo   3rd 9/1 

 

Pertemps final thurs 

Come on   3rd 12/1 

Imperial 

Redford 

Kansas 

Champagne  4th 17/2 

Uknowwhat

 

Plate thurs 

Top3 unp 

 

Kim muir top 3 

Bob unp

Storm 5th 16/1 

Hold the 4th 9/1 

 

Lots and lots of potential ew returns  . .but so near but so far for the big win .....2 races left today 

[sebotobes]

16 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

County Hurdle 

Petite Mouchoir 8.9 28/1 

Le Patriote 8.1 50/1 

Darraso 7.95 40/1 

Fifty Ball 7.6 12/1 

Edwardstone 7.35 

Top 3 ew and 4th rated on the nose as it’s a trend horse . Paying 8 places .

 

I came out with the exact same horses, except Third time lucki in place of fifty ball ratings wise, though that was “negative” value return. 
 

interested to see how this pans out but gone on the nose on 50ball now cos le patriote a NR. Good luck mate!

[richard-westwood]

17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

County hurdle fri

Le Patriote  8.8. 65.0 

Milkwood  7.5  34.0 

Thyme white  7.2 30.0 

Massive prices on top 3 .....last roll of the dice lol.....20pt wins all 3 

 

Typical ....la patriote non runner .....so thexratings are 

Milkwood    7.5 

Thyme white  7.2 

Petit mouchoir  7.0 

Buuldmeupbuttercup 6.8

Third time lucky   6.8 

Edward stone 6.6 

I'll add petit mouchoir with the 7lb claimer on board at 28/1 to replace le patriote......

Edited March 19, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, sebotobes said:

I came out with the exact same horses, except Third time lucki in place of fifty ball ratings wise, though that was “negative” value return. 
 

interested to see how this pans out but gone on the nose on 50ball now cos le patriote a NR. Good luck mate!

Third Time Lucki was pretty high up on my ratings. And you mate .

[Villa Chris]

33 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Typical ....la patriote non runner .....so thexratings are 

Milkwood    7.5 

Thyme white  7.2 

Petit mouchoir  7.0 

Buuldmeupbuttercup 6.8

Third time lucky   6.8 

Edward stone 6.6 

I'll add petit mouchoir with the 7lb claimer on board at 28/1 to replace le patriote......

I’m on Petit , too. High mark but classy horse and as you say the claimer won’t harm his chances . 

[Villa Chris]

Ffs second 

[richard-westwood]

2nd 3rd 5th 6th .....its just not to be ???

[Villa Chris]

18 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

County Hurdle 

Petite Mouchoir 8.9 28/1 2nd 

Darraso 7.95 40/1 

Fifty Ball 7.6 12/1 

Edwardstone 7.35 5th 

Top 2 ew and 3rd  rated on the nose as it’s a trend horse . Paying 8 places .

 

So close 

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

2nd 3rd 5th 6th .....its just not to be ???

Talk about unlucky . 

[richard-westwood]

17 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Talk about unlucky . 

Haha ....and I've got about 10 friends going .....feckin back ew ....lol ...but I came to chelt forcthe big win ....if it's not to be then I'm ok with that but 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 5th is really grating on me now ???

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Haha ....and I've got about 10 friends going .....feckin back ew ....lol ...but I came to chelt forcthe big win ....if it's not to be then I'm ok with that but 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 5th is really grating on me now ???

Well at least you know the ratings are pretty much spot on. We ain’t talking about 8-9 runners here, these are big handicaps we are trying to get right . Got  The Midlands National tomorrow yet ?

[richard-westwood]

2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Well at least you know the ratings are pretty much spot on. We ain’t talking about 8-9 runners here, these are big handicaps we are trying to get right . Got  The Midlands National tomorrow yet ?

Great ....looking forward to it ...haha ??....I'm def going ew lol

Edited March 19, 2021 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

I'm really happy with how all the ratings have performed from everyone who's had a go ....its proven beyond any doubt it finds value bets even in 24 runner chelt hcaps which is as hard as it gets .. ...so I'm happy with the ratings formula .....I've learnt if your gonna play with value bets then back ew as many places as possible and you wont go far wrong  .  ....gotta say I've really really enjoyed rating and the excitement of the festival ...its been a blast and I've loved it .....1 race to come ...it ain't over yet ...lol

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Great ....looking forward to it ...haha ??....I'm def going ew lol

I’m getting a bit drained haha but I’ll have a go at the Midlands National then have couple of weeks off and freshen up for aintree festival 

[Villa Chris]

Who you fancy gold cup Richard ?

[richard-westwood]

9 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Who you fancy gold cup Richard ?

I havent looked tbh .....I really havent been following as no value ....

[Villa Chris]

6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I havent looked tbh .....I really havent been following as no value ....

Always enjoy watching it. Best race in the world. I went with Frodon ew. Was travelling really well but once the others turned it up notch he couldn’t handle them. Got ew money back at 16/1 though. 

[sebotobes]

Does it only really work on handicaps? I’ve been using LTO, Won off mark?, Won in class? Distance? Going? 
 

just thinking how to improve it a bit cos those figures won’t take into account a horse that’s been rising through classes and now in the first race of this class etc, cos it’s figures could be skewed by a low score for not having previous in the class etc.

going to spend some time figuring out a good scoring system as well as at the minute LTO being 1/2 = say 10pts, but need to work out how to quantify the difference between winning a 5 runner race and winning a 20 runner race etc. Also stuff like factoring in yard/jockey form. I think i could do some data analysis to see trends between longer odds horses winning races when yard is in form etc, but then its the dilemma of figuring out a multiplier to represent that. Lots of time to practise before aintree i guess lol! 

[Villa Chris]

I only feel comfortable using it on handicaps . I did 3 grade 1 races and the  top rated won in two of them, but that was Appreciate It and Honeysuckle. I love watching the top grade races but enjoy betting on the handicaps more so will just stick with that . Regarding class ratings I mark them if its ran/won  in class above, same class , class below, two classes below .  8 points for a win in same class , 10 points class above . I only do class 2, Listed and grade 3 handicaps though. Don’t bother with anything below class 2 although may do the odd class 3.