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Pricing your own race


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20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Midland national saturday

Truckers lodge 8.0  20/1

Captain drake  7.7 12/1 

Ramses de teille  7.5

Regal encore  7.3 40/1 

The two amigos 7.1 

Time to get up   7.0  

Dont like ramses and two amigos based on recent form and trends ....hard to know what time to get up is going to be ....hes been consistently gambled on over past couple days into 3/1 but a horse stepping up 3 classes and 10f ....3/1 is dire value ....

I'd rather back truckers ...captain ...and regal encore even though the latter is,way out age trend but 40/1 is way overpriced so all value bets to take this fav on 

Truckers lodge 5pts ew 20/1 5places 

Captain drake 5pts ew 12/1 5places 

Regal encore 5pts ew 40/1 5 places 

I've gone for tricasts too as only 1 race today  on said 3 and time to get up 

I'm looking forward to the lincoln lol.....I actually prefer flat to jumps ...less variables 

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15 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I've gone for tricasts too as only 1 race today  on said 3 and time to get up 

I'm looking forward to the lincoln lol.....I actually prefer flat to jumps ...less variables 

I prefer the jumps but looking forward to trying the ratings on the flats. It’s all the same really isn’t it regarding ratings

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8 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Midlands National 

Captain Drake 7.7 

Achille 7.65 6th

Mighty Thunder 7.35 2nd 

The Two Amigos 7.3 

Screaming Colours 7.2 4th 

Regal Encore 7.2

Im happy to dismiss The Two Amigos(No room for error) and Regal Encore (Weight, age, course not Ascot) . I’ll play the top 3 ew . Bit concerned about Screaming Colours who will love this test of stamina , but the ratings are the ratings
 

Captain Drake 11/1 ew 

Achille 12/1 ew 

Mighty Thunder 16/1 ew 

Ew money back on two selections . The winner won well and was always doing enough to hold Mighty Thunder off. 

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44 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Irish lincoln sunday 

Teed up 8.8  6/1 

In from cold  7.7 20/1 

Layfayette 7.5  12/1 

Maker of kings 7.4 13/2 

Going to stick with top 3 ....5pt wins and 6x1pt forecasts 

 

They don’t have class handicaps like we do in Britain. What standard of race would it be classed as if in Britain? 

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On 3/20/2021 at 3:33 PM, richard-westwood said:

Irish lincoln sunday 

Teed up 8.8  6/1 

In from cold  7.7 20/1  

Layfayette 7.5  12/1 

Maker of kings 7.4 13/2 

Going to stick with top 3 ....5pt wins and 6x1pt forecasts 

 

Layfayette wins ....maker of kings 2nd ....in from cold 5th 28/1 !!

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5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

510 curr back to practising prices now 

Trueba 7.1 10/1 16/1 value 

Kodiqueen  6.2 12/1 25/1 value 

Glowworm 6.0 13/1 16/1 value 

Early season and you always have the conundrum of fitness ??....but value bets all 3 so I'll have a play 5pt ew all 3 and 6 forecast 

Trueba just pipped 2nd ...good run 

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16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

2.05 Newbury Class 2 hurdle 

Supreme Lucky 8.25, 11/2(5/1) value 

Manning Estate 7, 12/1(6/1) value 

Howling Milan 6.65, 5/2(13/2) no value 

Supreme Lucky clear on ratings with inform yard and jockey. 
 

10 points win 

got same exactly will post weekend when more time

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2.05 Kelso 

Donnas Diamond/Taxmeifyoucan 7.25, 33/1/22/1(15/2) value 

Mr Harp 6.85, 11/2(8/1) no value 

Kaiser 6.45, 22/1(9/1) value 

I’ll play both the joint top rated. 
 

5 points win on both 

 

Mr Harp was top rated for Cheltenham festival handicap but bypassed. Big danger .

Edited by Villa Chris
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120 donc sunday 

Ugo gregory 7.6 10/1 25/1 excellent value

Chookie dunedin 7.4 11/1 8/1 no value 

Dirty rascal   7.2 11/1 13/2 poor value 

Dancinginwoods 7.2 11/1 16/1 good value 

Dirty rascal has been out of form so questions to answer ...opposable ...

Other 3 are in form and running well ....I'll try 5pt ew on each

 

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16 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

120 donc sunday 

Ugo gregory 7.6 10/1 25/1 excellent value

Chookie dunedin 7.4 11/1 8/1 no value 

Dirty rascal   7.2 11/1 13/2 poor value 

Dancinginwoods 7.2 11/1 16/1 good value 

Dirty rascal has been out of form so questions to answer ...opposable ...

Other 3 are in form and running well ....I'll try 5pt ew on each

 

Chookie finished 3rd ....dirty rascal was well backed and finished 2nd 

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Sorry it's been quiet.....just been working hard but I've sat down and had a bash at mondays Irish grand national .....if it does ok with this one I might have a crack at the 40 runner english version ?

Coko beach  8.2 17/1 12/1 no value 

Court maid 7.8 18/1 16/1 no value 

Dragon destruval 7.2 20/1 50/1 excellent value 

Tiger roll  6.8 21/1 11/2  poor value 

Snugbirough benny 6.8 21/1 50/1 excellent value 

Espanito bello 6.6 22/1 16/1 no value

Moyhenna 6.6 23/1 20/1 no value 

As youd expect a difficult race to weigh up ....I dont like dragon destruval ...hes got good chances on old form hence higher rating but recent form is poor  so I'm overlooking ....tiger roll is fav but overall value is very poor and top weights dont do well ...overlooked ......for me I'm looking for in form and strong recent runs so court maid has only average recent runs ...but the other 4 qualify so I'm happy to play the 4 ew .....

Coko beach 5pt ew 12/1 

Snugsborough benny 5pt ew 50/1 

Espsnito bello 5pt ew 16/1 

Moyhenna 5pt ew 20/1 

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34 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

630 wolv

Tathmeen   7.7 

Jack star  7.1

Save the spirit 6.7 

Martineo 6.7 

Martineo is strong fav and well fancied ...could be hard to beat but at 10/1 there seems a lot of value in tathmeen so I'll try ew 

Tathmeen 10pt ew 10/1 

Drifts to 12/1 and wins ...about 160 pts returned ...nice run 

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On 4/2/2021 at 10:28 AM, richard-westwood said:

Sorry it's been quiet.....just been working hard but I've sat down and had a bash at mondays Irish grand national .....if it does ok with this one I might have a crack at the 40 runner english version ?

Coko beach  8.2 17/1 12/1 no value 

Court maid 7.8 18/1 16/1 no value 

Dragon destruval 7.2 20/1 50/1 excellent value 

Tiger roll  6.8 21/1 11/2  poor value 

Snugbirough benny 6.8 21/1 50/1 excellent value 

Espanito bello 6.6 22/1 16/1 no value

Moyhenna 6.6 23/1 20/1 no value 

As youd expect a difficult race to weigh up ....I dont like dragon destruval ...hes got good chances on old form hence higher rating but recent form is poor  so I'm overlooking ....tiger roll is fav but overall value is very poor and top weights dont do well ...overlooked ......for me I'm looking for in form and strong recent runs so court maid has only average recent runs ...but the other 4 qualify so I'm happy to play the 4 ew .....

Coko beach 5pt ew 12/1 

Snugsborough benny 5pt ew 50/1 

Espsnito bello 5pt ew 16/1 

Moyhenna 5pt ew 20/1 

Got paid ew coko beach 7th ....whoop lol

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