richard-westwood Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Would you say the best way is to rate the field before taking trends into account. It just seems easier that way rather than doing trends first . saying that some races you can narrow a field down to just a select few horses so it will probably be better to do trends first and cut the field down a bit . Obviously some trends are not worth bothering with. Haha....I was just debating that myself as we speak .....If you choose a couple of strong trends first you can cut the race down ........but if you rate first you can see any potential trend busters that have big ratings ??....I think I'll rate first ...I know it's a ball ache but I dont wanna miss anything Edited March 10, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Haha....I was just debating that myself as we speak .....If you choose a couple of strong trends first you can cut the race down ........but if you rate first you can see any potential trend busters that have big ratings ??....I think I'll rate first ...I know it's a ball ache but I dont wanna miss anything Think I’m with you on that Richard . Just rate them all then discard after. Like you say you might end up with a big ew bet that you miss out on . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) Supreme novice hurdle Appreciate It 8.25 won Metier 8 Ballyadam 8 second Blue Lord 6.25 fell Appreciate it doesn’t fit some strong trends but neither do the others . It’s been a bit of a stop start season for novices which has produced a weak supreme IMO and I think Appreciate It is an above average supreme horse. Bob Olinger will be going Ballymore I should think . I’ve got Appreciate It covered well and have Ballyadam 12/1 ew. The safest thing to do is use my money back if loses bet on Metier but I’ll wait for him to drift a bit more as he’s now 9/2. Edited March 16, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) Right ......race number 1 .....ultima handicap ....currently I've rated 28 runners but 23 ran last year .... Happy go lucky 8.5 11/1 11/2 no value Cepage 7.7 12/1 20/1 good value Vintage clouds 7.6 12/1 25/1 excellent value Nietsche 7.4 13/1 33/1 excellent value Remastered 6.6 14/1 14/1 value Didero vsllis 6.5 15/1 40/1 outstanding value Pym 6.5 15/1 33/1 excellent value That's my shortlist.....now to apply trends You really want a horse with top form over 21.5 f +....so we lose cepage and nietsche....leaving Happygolucky 8.5 Vintage clouds 7.6 Remastered 6.6 Didero vallis 6.5 Pym 6.5 Runners from ascot last time have a diabolical record so we lose remastered Vintage clouds is 11 and outside the age range for this race 19/20 7 to 10 Leaves Happygolucky 11/2 Didero vallis 40/1 ew Pym 33/1 ew I'm happy with that as long as they all run Edited March 10, 2021 by richard-westwood Villa Chris, Pirate53 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 I’ll have a go at that race on Sunday once final decs are declared. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Too windy on the roofs today so just got back home . I’m going to sort through that first day at Cheltenham I think. I’m happy with the supreme . I’m not touching the Arkle. The rest I’ll rate. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 2nd hcap of the Tuesday Boodles juvenile Saint sam 8.6 7/1 11/2 no value Busselton 8.1 10/1 8/1 no value Tinnahslla 7.6 12/1 20/1 good value Nassalam 7.6 12/1 12/1 value Hous gris 7.5 12/1 5/1 poor value Coltor 7.2 13/1 9/1 no value Overall I cant see past the top 2 here ...both were beaten by quixiloios which us no shame and with improvement to come I think the others might struggle to take these 2 on .....could go ew but strong bets so I'll be going 20pt wins 11/2 and 8/1 Pirate53 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) The Ultima Handicap Chase, Cheltenham Coko Beach 9.9 ,12/1 Remastered 8.5 ,11/1 Storm Control 8 ,20/1 Just Your Type 7.7, 66/1 Aye Right 7.55, 10/1 Milan Native 7.5, 16/1 The Irish have a poor record in this race so that leaves question marks over Coko Beach and Milan Native. Coko Beach is also rated 151 so will be carrying too much weight, along with Aye Right who is 154. Storm Control and Just Your Type seem too exposed to win this with the latter only rated 132 and fell on his only run at Cheltenham. Storm Control has got a very good course record though and rated a nice 142 which is the average rating of the winner of this race. Remastered seems to tick a lot of trends, although hasn’t ran at festival before which is a negative . Will review ratings once final decs are set in stone Edited March 11, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) Going to review the trends for The Ultima again. We need a horse who’s younger than 10. Novice chasers and second season chasers have a good record in this. They make up 10/12 last renewals . Horses that have run at a previous festival tend to do well. Edited March 11, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) Just a quick question would any ground change affect your ratings guys? Edited March 11, 2021 by Tedthewolf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 I'll try post some jumps winners Cheltenham. Paddy doing 3 £5 free bets if you have an account too and eligible for the offer. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Right ......race number 1 .....ultima handicap ....currently I've rated 28 runners but 23 ran last year .... Happy go lucky 8.5 11/1 11/2 no value Cepage 7.7 12/1 20/1 good value Vintage clouds 7.6 12/1 25/1 excellent value Nietsche 7.4 13/1 33/1 excellent value Remastered 6.6 14/1 14/1 value Didero vsllis 6.5 15/1 40/1 outstanding value Pym 6.5 15/1 33/1 excellent value That's my shortlist.....now to apply trends You really want a horse with top form over 21.5 f +....so we lose cepage and nietsche....leaving Happygolucky 8.5 Vintage clouds 7.6 Remastered 6.6 Didero vallis 6.5 Pym 6.5 Runners from ascot last time have a diabolical record so we lose remastered Vintage clouds is 11 and outside the age range for this race 19/20 7 to 10 Leaves Happygolucky 11/2 Didero vallis 40/1 ew Pym 33/1 ew I'm happy with that as long as they all run Race is changing all the time ....only trouble with these big hcaps at chelt .....a couple of extra horses squeezed in and a couple of rated horses are reserved currently.....will probably have to rerate sun or mon but at least a lot of the work is done .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: Race is changing all the time ....only trouble with these big hcaps at chelt .....a couple of extra horses squeezed in and a couple of rated horses are reserved currently.....will probably have to rerate sun or mon but at least a lot of the work is done .... Same here. Nowt set in stone but most of the word done . Expect some of my top rated to go elsewhere or not bother turning at for Cheltenham. Think Coko Beach might be staying in Ireland for the Irish national. As I’ve said in another thread I’ve had 5 points ew on Aye Right 10/1. He’s definitely going the Ultima and he’s 5th rated at moment but I expect him to be top 2/3 rated once final decs are made. Richard Johnson riding too, so they definitely mean business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Just now, Villa Chris said: Same here. Nowt set in stone but most of the word done . Expect some of my top rated to go elsewhere or not bother turning at for Cheltenham. Think Coko Beach might be staying in Ireland for the Irish national. As I’ve said in another thread I’ve had 5 points ew on Aye Right 10/1. He’s definitely going the Ultima and he’s 5th rated at moment but I expect him to be top 2/3 rated once final decs are made. Richard Johnson riding too, so they definitely mean business. Hes been heavily backed over the last day or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Hes been heavily backed over the last day or so He’s due to land a big un . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said: Just a quick question would any ground change affect your ratings guys? It might change mine slightly......but not the top rated happygolucky who goes on anything from good to... soft ....I reckon it will be gd/soft so that will be perfect I'm not concerned about the entries at the moment ......happygolucky is my main bet and I'm confident he will run .....ground and dist will be perfect and hes already proven at chelt finishing 1st 3rd and 4th on his last 3 runs there.....I'm very hot on him for this race ....just need to find a couple of outsiders for value bets now Just 1 negative about him I have and that is his 90 day layoff ....if hed had a run in 42 days I wouldn't even oppose him .....I think kim bailey can get him ready but it's a tiny blot on an otherwise perfect card Edited March 11, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Tedthewolf said: Just a quick question would any ground change affect your ratings guys? Yes it would . The going is G/S now. It was Good on parts of the course but they have had a bit of rain the last few days. More rain on the way but dry next week so I’m confident it will be G/S. If it turned soft I’d have to make a slight adjustment on some horses but nowt major . Edited March 11, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: It might change mine slightly......but not the top rated happygolucky who goes on anything from good to... soft ....I reckon it will be gd/soft so that will be perfect I'm not concerned about the entries at the moment ......happygolucky is my main bet and I'm confident he will run .....ground and dist will be perfect and hes already proven at chelt finishing 1st 3rd and 4th on his last 3 runs there.....I'm very hot on him for this race ....just need to find a couple of outsiders for value bets now Just 1 negative about him I have and that is his 90 day layoff ....if hed had a run in 42 days I wouldn't even oppose him .....I think kim bailey can get him ready but it's a tiny blot on an otherwise perfect card It will be 100 days by race day . I like the look of him and he’s quite high on my ratings with potential to rate higher if horses start pulling out. I did notice the days ran trend which is a bit of a negative for him, and he’s also favourite which is a negative going off trends. Doubt I’ll play him because others will rate higher and have better value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) Champion Hurdle Honeysuckle 9.5 Epatante 9 Silver Streak 8.9 Abacadabra 8.4 Sharjah 7.9 Goshen 7.75 Top 6 rated . Surprised Silver Streak rated so high but saying that he’s a very good horse and runs well at Cheltenham finding the odd one or two too good usually. I’ve got 10 points on Honeysuckle covered with Monkfish 8/1 for the double so I think I’ll let that one roll. Epatante is superb as we know but is prone to the odd bad day and she won’t be able to afford to have a bad day here. I had Aba a few weeks back when he was 12/1 ew in the hope that he’d get G/S which it looks like he will. Quirky type but I honestly think he’s genuine top class and will go very close. Edited March 12, 2021 by Villa Chris Edited ratings Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: It will be 100 days by race day . I like the look of him and he’s quite high on my ratings with potential to rate higher if horses start pulling out. I did notice the days ran trend which is a bit of a negative for him, and he’s also favourite which is a negative going off trends. Doubt I’ll play him because others will rate higher and have better value. I hadn't realised hed been backed in from 25/1 to 11/2 in the last 2,weeks ....he is the bookies biggest hcap loss of the festival if he wins....I think currently hes holding something like 32% of the entire book ...that's crazy lol I think for me....his performance in the Martin pipe last year was spectacular ......he was hampered by a faller at the last ...I doubt hed have won but I think hed have finished 1.5 lengths down so anything near that running would surely see him go close ...got to be Edited March 11, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I hadn't realised hed been backed in from 25/1 to 11/2 in the last 2,weeks ....he is the bookies biggest hcap loss of the festival if he wins....I think currently hes holding something like 32% of the entire book ...that's crazy lol I think for me....his performance in the Martin pipe last year was spectacular ......he was hampered by a faller at the last ...I doubt hed have won but I think hed have finished 1.5 lengths down so anything near that running would surely see him go close ...got to be Yes he got put up on another forum as an handicap hotshot. A lot of the forum went in on him and the bookies reacted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 (edited) Richard did you take into account the 7Ibs allowance the mares are getting in the champion hurdle. I didn’t add that to my ratings and with it being a grade A should I? Ive readjusted my ratings slightly for the mares . Added 0.5 half a point for the weight allowance which makes a difference for sure. Honeysuckle 9.5 Epatante 9 Silver Streak 8.9 I pointed out I was surprised with silver streak rating so high but having looked he’s having his best season ever, scoring top RPRs, breaking track record at Kempton and disposing easily of a Epatante who was not herself that day. One race he got carried out by another horse and another he got massively hampered omitting the last hurdle and got beat half a length where if it wasn’t for getting hampered would have won . He’s beat two mares in Verdana Blue and Epatante giving weight away and beating both over 6 lengths. Trainer said decent ground is key to his chances. Edited March 12, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Richard did you take into account the 7Ibs allowance the mares are getting in the champion hurdle. I didn’t add that to my ratings and with it being a grade A should I? I do as it tends to make a big diff nowadays....you could argue they run off a level playfield as a result and just rate them as equals but taking 7lb off honeysuckle is not running equal in my book so I think you have to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I do as it tends to make a big diff nowadays....you could argue they run off a level playfield as a result and just rate them as equals but taking 7lb off honeysuckle is not running equal in my book so I think you have to Yes mate I’ve done it. Forgot about it doing the ratings . I’ve readjusted now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 21 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just 1 negative about him I have and that is his 90 day layoff ....if hed had a run in 42 days I wouldn't even oppose him I consider this a positive. AE for horses with a gap of 100 days or more is 1.26. For 42 days or less the AE is 0.92. For handicaps this is even lower (0.82). The strike rate is also higher for those horses with a long lay off. richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Some distraction for saturday ..... 240 wolv lincoln trial Tadleel 8.0 9/1 13/2 no value Mission boy 8.0 9/1 11/2 no value Zwayyan 7.8 10/1 12/1 value Born to be alive 7.8 10/1 13/2 no value Very competitive race as youd expect .....I like the top 2 here ...improving sorts ....I'll chance it ....tadleel and mission 2x 10pt wins Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Tuesday Cheltenham 230 Ultima Happy go lucky 5-1 skybet, escaria ten Betfair sp and remastered Betfair sp are my picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 13 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Some distraction for saturday ..... 240 wolv lincoln trial Tadleel 8.0 9/1 13/2 no value Mission boy 8.0 9/1 11/2 no value Zwayyan 7.8 10/1 12/1 value Born to be alive 7.8 10/1 13/2 no value Very competitive race as youd expect .....I like the top 2 here ...improving sorts ....I'll chance it ....tadleel and mission 2x 10pt wins Tadleel also my pick last night at better price than now getting backed in and trying Ew on Al muffrih 20-1 ladbrokes richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 (edited) On 3/8/2021 at 4:51 PM, richard-westwood said: Imperial cup saturday Natural history 9.5 9/2 7/2 no value One true king 8.4 8/1 16/1 good value Rockadenn 8.2 9/1 8/1 no value Competitive race as youd expect ....but natural history is way out in front ....bit disappointed only 7/2 in such a big race but a winner before chelt is a winner .....I'll be going 20pts win natural history with a 10pt saver on one true king at 16/1 as hes the value bet .....time to trust the ratings and blast off One true king none runner ....heavily backed too ffs....6 non runners it's down to a 9 horse race Edited March 13, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 5 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Tadleel also my pick last night at better price than now getting backed in and trying Ew on Al muffrih 20-1 ladbrokes 3rd rated wins which I also had on born. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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