Pricing your own race

[richard-westwood]

17 hours ago, LLOYDY said:

@richard-westwood could you send me it too? [email protected]

Sorry...only just saw I've sent 

[LLOYDY]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Sorry...only just saw I've sent 

No worries dude ? good work on it all though interesting stuff ?

[Villa Chris]

Does anyone account for weight? For example ....

Horse X  rates 8.1, carrying 11’2

Horse Y rates 7.9, carrying 10’5 

both closely rated but top rated carrying 11Ibs more 

[Villa Chris]

7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.00 Naas Grade 2

Echoes In Rain 6.2, 13/8(7/2) no value won 

Razzle Dazzle Love 5, 7/2(5/1) no value 

Belfast Banter 4.85, 11/1(11/2) value2nd  

Just a practise. 

Top rated won as expected. Belfast Banter out ran his odds which is good to see. 

7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Fontwell 3.10 Grade 2

McFabulous 9, 4/5(7/2) no value 2nd 

Brewing’ upastorm 7.75, 5/2(4/1-9/2) no value won 

Reserve Tank 7, 22/1(9/2-5/1) value 

Reserve Tank has some excellent hurdle form from his hurdling days. Comes back to this sphere from chasing and has been off for a bit now so probably best watched. The favourite looks solid anyway and should win. Practise ratings. 

Disappointing from Mcfabulous to not win this . The winner seems to have got his spark back now back over hurdles but for all the talk on Mcfabulous I’d be a bit underwhelmed he got beat here, and beat easily. Reserve Tank didn’t finish too many lengths back and I’d keep an eye on him next time out as this was his first run for nearly a year. 

[richard-westwood]

28 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Does anyone account for weight? For example ....

Horse X  rates 8.1, carrying 11’2

Horse Y rates 7.9, carrying 10’5 

both closely rated but top rated carrying 11Ibs more 

No I go off hcap mark .....if hes got a lighter weight hes taking on classier opposition ......unless the trends say low weights do well ....like the grand national....then I'd give bonus to low weights 

Edited February 28, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

5.00 Naas 

Aarons Day 9, 9/4

You Say Nothing 9 , 14/1

Shakeytry 9, 18/1

Conright Boy 7.75, 18/1

Yaya Fiz 7.65 , 66/1 

 

too late to bet but see how it goes 

Edited February 28, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Getting as much big race practice as I can on my days off so I'm ready ...

5.00 naas 20 runners 

You say nothing 7.4 499 8/1 15/2 no value 

Aaron's day  6.4 476 14/1 2/1 poor value 

Bua boy 6.3 451 14/1 16/1 value bet

No memory 6.3 420 14/1 25/1 good value 

Bydesametoken 6.3 484 14/1 14/1 value 

Moonlight glory 6.2 430 14/1 14/1 value 

Combination of mine and ratings leaves 

You say nothing 15/2  499

Aaron's day  2/1 476 6.4

Bydesametoken 14/1 6.3 484 

 

I'll try ew bets you say nothing and bytgesametokens 6places with sky 

And 6 x1pt forecasts 

 

Aaron's day 6th ...bytgesametoken 2nd at 25/1!!....good run by the value bet 

[Wildgarden]

56 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Aaron's day 6th ...bytgesametoken 2nd at 25/1!!....good run by the value bet 

Gutted had at 40-1 token.

[Wildgarden]

Slightly off topic but does anyone have knowledge of an online database for USA racing? I have applied some of what we do here to there with some success but could do with some trends to help improve

[richard-westwood]

More practice before I'm back at work 

1230 plum

Shes Gina 7.4 356  13/2 9/2 no value 

Jungle prose 7.1 336 7/1 9/2 no value 

Ding ding 7.1 330 7/1 11/2 no value 

Ding ding is hard to predict ....looks to have gone off the boil age 10 ....but will appreciate this distance ...whether is good enough any more remains to be seen ...safer bet is top 2 who are in form and running well ...4pts win both 

[LLOYDY]

So new to this interesting bits, I've taken some of what you have all been doing and it'd be interesting to see if I'm anywhere near your ratings.

I have had a look at 3 races today, based on my ratings have put 1st 2nd and 3rd below:

 

Punchestown 1.45pm

1st global equatity (now a non runner) 2nd black tears 3rd Sweet tears (looks to be value) 4th Darren's Hope

Punchestown 4pm

1st Sassy yet classy 2nd toyko getaway 3rd dallas des pictons 

All good value tbh 

Punchestown 5pm

1st Hilltopsurpreme (by a clear mile) 2nd royal rhythm 3rd Nicole's Milan 

All good value especially Hilltopsurpreme at 12/1 

Let's see how they get on, first time applying some of your logic and some of my experience 

Edited March 1, 2021 by LLOYDY

[richard-westwood]

37 minutes ago, LLOYDY said:

So new to this interesting bits, I've taken some of what you have all been doing and it'd be interesting to see if I'm anywhere near your ratings.

I have had a look at 3 races today, based on my ratings have put 1st 2nd and 3rd below:

 

Punchestown 1.45pm

1st global equatity (now a non runner) 2nd black tears 3rd Sweet tears (looks to be value) 4th Darren's Hope

Punchestown 4pm

1st Sassy yet classy 2nd tomorrow getaway 3rd dallas des pictons 

All good value tbh 

Punchestown 5pm

1st Hilltopsurpreme (by a clear mile) 2nd royal rhythm 3rd Nicole's Milan 

All good value especially Hilltopsurpreme at 12/1 

Let's see how they get on, first time applying some of your logic and some of my experience 

That's what its all about ....get stuck in and have some fun doing it  ...the more you do the easier it becomes and there will be races where you scratch your head and get nothing but horses aren't machines ans sometimes just turn up and cant be arsed....but if you track back through everyone's posts since the beginning ...time and time again its found value bets and that's the name of the game ......good luck with your selections ....?

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, LLOYDY said:

So new to this interesting bits, I've taken some of what you have all been doing and it'd be interesting to see if I'm anywhere near your ratings.

I have had a look at 3 races today, based on my ratings have put 1st 2nd and 3rd below:

 

Punchestown 1.45pm

1st global equatity (now a non runner) 2nd black tears 3rd Sweet tears (looks to be value) 4th Darren's Hope

Punchestown 4pm

1st Sassy yet classy 2nd toyko getaway 3rd dallas des pictons 

All good value tbh 

Punchestown 5pm

1st Hilltopsurpreme (by a clear mile) 2nd royal rhythm 3rd Nicole's Milan 

All good value especially Hilltopsurpreme at 12/1 

Let's see how they get on, first time applying some of your logic and some of my experience 

16/1 2nd ....12/1 easy winner in last ....boom ....well done 

[Villa Chris]

Well done Lloyd and welcome to the forum . Not bad at all for your first attempt at ratings ?

[LLOYDY]

12 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

16/1 2nd ....12/1 easy winner in last ....boom ....well done 

I was lucky as had Sassy at 25/1! Wow thanks boys that's a good start. That Hilltopsurpreme was clear on score by a mile.

I'm on paternity at the moment so I'll pop another three up later tonight.

How long does it take you boys? I'll like about 1hr and 30 mins for three races which is quite time consuming.

[Villa Chris]

Also worth pointing out in Lloyds last race his 3rd rated 25/1 came third . 

[richard-westwood]

12 minutes ago, LLOYDY said:

I was lucky as had Sassy at 25/1! Wow thanks boys that's a good start. That Hilltopsurpreme was clear on score by a mile.

I'm on paternity at the moment so I'll pop another three up later tonight.

How long does it take you boys? I'll like about 1hr and 30 mins for three races which is quite time consuming.

Takes me about 20 mins on paper which I find faster than the sheet..typing slows me down lol...it takes time but nothing good is easy 

Edited March 1, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

9 minutes ago, LLOYDY said:

I was lucky as had Sassy at 25/1! Wow thanks boys that's a good start. That Hilltopsurpreme was clear on score by a mile.

I'm on paternity at the moment so I'll pop another three up later tonight.

How long does it take you boys? I'll like about 1hr and 30 mins for three races which is quite time consuming.

Depends on how many racing but 1 hour 30 mins for three standard 10-12 horse race sounds about right for me. Those big 20 horse handicaps take me an hour.  I enjoy it though and it’s all done by pen and notepad . Congratulations on the baby, by the way.

[LLOYDY]

15 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Also worth pointing out in Lloyds last race his 3rd rated 25/1 came third . 

Yeah I see that as well, I had lumped on Hilltopsupreme though as it was on the system miles ahead of any other horse. Was 11/2 last night but drifted today to 12/1.

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, LLOYDY said:

Yeah I see that as well, I had lumped on Hilltopsupreme though as it was on the system miles ahead of any other horse. Was 11/2 last night but drifted today to 12/1.

It’s great when it all goes to plan. Be nice to get stuck into those big handicaps at Cheltenham. 

[Villa Chris]

Gowran Park 3.50 Grade 2 (6 runners)

Bachasson 9, 4/5(3/1) 

Castle grace Paddy  7.75, 12/1(9/2)

Annamix 6.5, 6/1(5/1)

Practise ratings for graded 1&2 races. Top rated should win but I like second rated at a price. Ran in two grade 1s recently against top class horses and easily beaten. His two previous runs to that were in grade 2s which he won beating a very classy horse in one of them. Only ran at this further distance once and that was few years ago and finished 2/15. 

[LLOYDY]

Lets see if today was a bit of luck or not, biggest thing I'm looking for is consistency... gone for handicaps again three races with three biggish fields.

Gowran Park 3.20pm 

1st Mon Lino 7/1, 2nd Street Value 85/40 (3rd Fit to be tied 14/1 

Catterick 3.30pm 

1st Blunder Buss 10/1, 2nd Finisher 5/1, 3rd Sincerely Resdev 8/1

Gowran Park 4.50pm

1st Weihnacts 2/1, 2nd Chappel field 10/3, 3rd Bitview Colin 16/1

Nothing crazy in terms of price, however Blunder Buss is forecasted SP of 22/1 but the rest are about their SP forecast.

Let's hope for another good day

Edited March 2, 2021 by LLOYDY

[Wildgarden]

10 hours ago, LLOYDY said:

So new to this interesting bits, I've taken some of what you have all been doing and it'd be interesting to see if I'm anywhere near your ratings.

I have had a look at 3 races today, based on my ratings have put 1st 2nd and 3rd below:

 

Punchestown 1.45pm

1st global equatity (now a non runner) 2nd black tears 3rd Sweet tears (looks to be value) 4th Darren's Hope

Punchestown 4pm

1st Sassy yet classy 2nd toyko getaway 3rd dallas des pictons 

All good value tbh 

Punchestown 5pm

1st Hilltopsurpreme (by a clear mile) 2nd royal rhythm 3rd Nicole's Milan 

All good value especially Hilltopsurpreme at 12/1 

Let's see how they get on, first time applying some of your logic and some of my experience 

Well done Lloydy keep up the good work. Hopefully it wasn't begginers luck. I'm still developing my jumps seems slightly out of profit still.whenever I do it with a few winners barely covering the outlay. Although a few winners instead of 2nd by a head would have turned that over...

[LLOYDY]

8 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Well done Lloydy keep up the good work. Hopefully it wasn't begginers luck. I'm still developing my jumps seems slightly out of profit still.whenever I do it with a few winners barely covering the outlay. Although a few winners instead of 2nd by a head would have turned that over...

Who knows lol only time will tell. I only really know jumps as its what I've done/followed for the last 12 years.

Fingers crossed ?I'm only doing really small stakes whilst I test the system so didn't actually win much yesterday. 

[Pirate53]

Dutch Decoy out again tonight so had to rate the race.

Newcastle 19.00

Dutch Decoy            19.07      11/2       5/2        No value

Theotherside            15.98       7/1      16/1       Value

The Great Heir         15.06      15/2       7/2       No value

Old News                 14.48       8/1        15/2     About Right

The Met                    14.03     8.25/1     9/1      Some value

Seas Of Elzaam       13.81      17/2       6/1      No value

Dutch is way ahead so my money will be down if i can get 3/1. Theotherside may be worth a dabble in Betfair 4TBP market.

[Villa Chris]

21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Gowran Park 3.50 Grade 2 (6 runners)

Bachasson 9, 4/5(3/1) 

Castle grace Paddy  7.75, 12/1(9/2)

Annamix 6.5, 6/1(5/1)

Practise ratings for graded 1&2 races. Top rated should win but I like second rated at a price. Ran in two grade 1s recently against top class horses and easily beaten. His two previous runs to that were in grade 2s which he won beating a very classy horse in one of them. Only ran at this further distance once and that was few years ago and finished 2/15. 

Top two were the top two. Bit there were two non runners which disabled an already small field of 6, so not a lot to take from it apart from top rated winning well which was expected . 

[Villa Chris]

16 hours ago, LLOYDY said:

Lets see if today was a bit of luck or not, biggest thing I'm looking for is consistency... gone for handicaps again three races with three biggish fields.

Gowran Park 3.20pm 

1st Mon Lino 7/1, 2nd Street Value 85/40 (3rd Fit to be tied 14/1 

Catterick 3.30pm 

1st Blunder Buss 10/1, 2nd Finisher 5/1, 3rd Sincerely Resdev 8/1

Gowran Park 4.50pm

1st Weihnacts 2/1, 2nd Chappel field 10/3, 3rd Bitview Colin 16/1

Nothing crazy in terms of price, however Blunder Buss is forecasted SP of 22/1 but the rest are about their SP forecast.

Let's hope for another good day

First race went well for you regarding ratings. 

[Villa Chris]

Cracking stuff again Lloyd 

[LLOYDY]

1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

Cracking stuff again Lloyd 

3.30pm wasn't great, I'm going to look at what tweaks would have given me the right outcomes later. Should have done a forecast on the last ?

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, LLOYDY said:

3.30pm wasn't great, I'm going to look at what tweaks would have given me the right outcomes later. Should have done a forecast on the last ?

You won’t get everyone right, it’s not possible. Yep, so far so good and whatever you are doing looks like it’s working so far, so wouldn’t tweak too much .