Pricing your own race

[LLOYDY]

14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

You won’t get everyone right, it’s not possible. Yep, so far so good and whatever you are doing looks like it’s working so far, so wouldn’t tweak too much . 

Oh absolutely, just was quite disappointed the top two in my 3.30pm were so far away. So going to see if there is a change I could have made across all three that wouldn't be massive but maybe just get me closer to the result. There might not be anything. 

[LLOYDY]

Never do flats but wanted to test on the AW and see how it works. 

Newcastle 6pm

1st Asdaa

2nd Imperial Command 

3rd Ulshaw Bridge

 

1st and 3rd look like the value in that one, I haven't taken draws into consideration so might want to do that based on these three.

[LLOYDY]

41 minutes ago, LLOYDY said:

Never do flats but wanted to test on the AW and see how it works. 

Newcastle 6pm

1st Asdaa

2nd Imperial Command 

3rd Ulshaw Bridge

 

1st and 3rd look like the value in that one, I haven't taken draws into consideration so might want to do that based on these three.

Think I'll stick to jumps lol 

[Wildgarden]

40 minutes ago, LLOYDY said:

Think I'll stick to jumps lol 

Rating was same as mine u had 2nd as the winner keep at it! If Ur close to me gives me a break on a few ratings lol. I'm off tomorrow will try post some winners. Won on last lovely winner Daniel flyer. After having 4 2nds!

Edited March 2, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

Wincanton 2.05 ( 7 runners) Cash back if 2nd 

Class 3

Molinuex 8.7, 4/1(9/2) about right 

Drum cliff 8.45, 11/1( 5/1) value 

Keep Moving 8.25, 11/1 (5/1) value 

Earlofthecotswold 8, 9/4(5/1) no value 

These 4 clear of the rest . Some nice value 2nd and 3rd rated but both have questions to answer . Top rated looks a solid enough bet with cash back if second. I fancy him to finish in top two so I’ll play him . 
 

10 points win on Molinuex 4/1 

[LLOYDY]

Here we go Day 3 -

Three races big handicaps as I like them aha 

Musselburgh 1.50pm

1st Millie the Minx, 2nd Lost & found, 3rd Joie De Vivre 

Wincanton 2.40pm

1st Fool to cry, 2nd Sue be it, 3rd Dylan Sea Song 

Wincanton 3.10pm

1st soyouthinkwhat, 2nd Dash of blue, 3rd Project Mars (There is a horse at terrific value "Winter Spice" wasn't far off on my ratings yet 40/1) 

Good luck tomorrow lads ?

 

[richard-westwood]

100 winc

Duc kauto 7.1 and baignard 6.7 are the only 2 horses with any decent ratings ...I'll try 4pts on both  

[richard-westwood]

Ling 355 

River wharfe 8.1 11/2 100/30 no value 

Patsy fagan 7.8 6/1 13/2 value 

Dacesa  7.3 13/2 16/1 good value 

Dacesa could run into a place at a decent price but top 2 have strong ratings so I'll go win bets on those 2 

 

[Villa Chris]

Money coming in for the two value bets in the 2.05 at Wincanton. My top rated horses have been doing well so hopefully Molinuex can keep that going. Sod’s law one of the value bet wins. 

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ling 355 

River wharfe 8.1 11/2 100/30 no value 

Patsy fagan 7.8 6/1 13/2 value 

Dacesa  7.3 13/2 16/1 good value 

Dacesa could run into a place at a decent price but top 2 have strong ratings so I'll go win bets on those 2 

 

Here's mine if it helps. I've done power on 8-1 and propoagation 7-4 if Ur top two drift to value. Will back one.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

140 El conquistador is favourite and top in the ratings. If going for any other, perhaps worth doing 2nd place only market and looking at dawn treader, cafe milano and deleyll at nice prices. Not sure about decora 1 pound up and 8th lto at Lingfield at same distance and I generally follow the top 5 unless it's a maiden improver.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

140 El conquistador is favourite and top in the ratings. If going for any other, perhaps worth doing 2nd place only market and looking at dawn treader, cafe milano and deleyll at nice prices. Not sure about decora 1 pound up and 8th lto at Lingfield at same distance and I generally follow the top 5 unless it's a maiden improver.

El conquistador wins as predicted top rated. Got 2nd place only market 9-2 for dawn treader for some profit (cafe was 7-1 3rd)

Edited March 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Wincanton 2.05 ( 7 runners) Cash back if 2nd 

Class 3

Molinuex 8.7, 4/1(9/2) about right 

Drum cliff 8.45, 11/1( 5/1) value 

Keep Moving 8.25, 11/1 (5/1) value 

Earlofthecotswold 8, 9/4(5/1) no value 

These 4 clear of the rest . Some nice value 2nd and 3rd rated but both have questions to answer . Top rated looks a solid enough bet with cash back if second. I fancy him to finish in top two so I’ll play him . 
 

10 points win on Molinuex 4/1 

No luck today . Half a length away from getting my money back but never mind. Paddys poem won who was up in distance. He’s been racing at around 2m and finding one too good for him. His previous race write ups read “stayed on well” which means he needed upping in trip and it worked today . How do you go about rating a horse who’s up in distance and looks like he could come on for it. Paddy’s poem scored a zero from me on his distance ratings . 

Edited March 3, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ling 355 

River wharfe 8.1 11/2 100/30 no value 

Patsy fagan 7.8 6/1 13/2 value 

Dacesa  7.3 13/2 16/1 good value 

Dacesa could run into a place at a decent price but top 2 have strong ratings so I'll go win bets on those 2 

 

Patsy Fagan wins ...value bet dacesa finishes 2nd at 16/1 

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Here's mine if it helps. I've done power on 8-1 and propoagation 7-4 if Ur top two drift to value. Will back one.

No hit power looked good till the end. Top rated wins. Patsy.

[Villa Chris]

Well done lads 

[LLOYDY]

47 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Patsy Fagan wins ...value bet dacesa finishes 2nd at 16/1 

Good work mate ? I missed theses caught up with the kids but that'll do 

[Wildgarden]

720 jackstar 12.5 and recall the show 16 Betfair exchange

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, LLOYDY said:

Good work mate ? I missed theses caught up with the kids but that'll do 

I'm just enjoying the practice while I can ....I'll be working a lot this next week but they asked me if I wanted the week of the 15th off to use the last if my holiday  ...erm....yes please ...wahoooo.........you had another winner today ...minnie ?....your a natural...enjoy the process and have fun with it .....

I'm just compiling my trends for the big chelt hcaps so I'm ready ...just a,waiting game now ...cant wait to get stuck in 

[Villa Chris]

I’m thinking of going shit or bust as Paul Sykes used to say . Got 10k in life savings. Thinking of just banging 10k on the next unfortunate horse that happens to be my top rated . Ain’t telling the wife, mind. If it loses I’ll just blame the Tory party . 

[richard-westwood]

42 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’m thinking of going shit or bust as Paul Sykes used to say . Got 10k in life savings. Thinking of just banging 10k on the next unfortunate horse that happens to be my top rated . Ain’t telling the wife, mind. If it loses I’ll just blame the Tory party . 

I'll be having some big bets on the top 2 in the big races ...win or lose ....would be nice to land a big win just so it can prove itself on the big stage ......either way its  exciting ....just looking forward to having a go and enjoying the spectacle 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

720 jackstar 12.5 and recall the show 16 Betfair exchange

No good Hollie wins nicely with sir who's done nothing for ages but back at weight so maybe would've been a pick if included it! But then wins with madrhinho which I had at least.

 

[LLOYDY]

Day 4 - liking the system had some good priced winners and some good places as well. I have tweak the system ever so slightly so see how today goes. Ill be doing more races than these but here are my picks:

Ludlow 3.15pm

1st Authorizo 2nd Minnie Escape 3rd Let's be avenue (wonderful value on the 3rd) 

Clonmel 3.30pm

1st Ballea Fox 2nd Rock on Barney 3rd Higgest Benefit (all good value, tactical manover wasn't far behind)

Tauton 3.40pm

1st Russian Service 2nd Aronius 3rd Manor Park 

Good luck lads ?couple of weeks now till the big one 

 

[LLOYDY]

Done the 4.35 clonmel

1st Flysini (by a clear mile) 2nd Lacken Bridge 3rd Enduring love 

 

[LLOYDY]

6 hours ago, LLOYDY said:

Day 4 - liking the system had some good priced winners and some good places as well. I have tweak the system ever so slightly so see how today goes. Ill be doing more races than these but here are my picks:

Ludlow 3.15pm

1st Authorizo 2nd Minnie Escape 3rd Let's be avenue (wonderful value on the 3rd) 

Clonmel 3.30pm

1st Ballea Fox 2nd Rock on Barney 3rd Higgest Benefit (all good value, tactical manover wasn't far behind)

Tauton 3.40pm

1st Russian Service 2nd Aronius 3rd Manor Park 

Good luck lads ?couple of weeks now till the big one 

 

That was really unlucky there, personally if Letsbeavenue doesn't fall he wins easily. Sometimes lucky isn't onside ?

[Wildgarden]

Will try post some winners over in the racing chat for tomorrow all the best all.

[richard-westwood]

Just getting work commitments out of the way then I'll be in full cheltenham mode rating starting with the imperial cup saturday as long as it doesnt cut up too small.....then it's big bets time 

[richard-westwood]

Imperial cup saturday 

Natural history 9.5  9/2 7/2 no value 

One true king  8.4 8/1 16/1 good value 

Rockadenn  8.2 9/1 8/1 no value 

Competitive race as youd expect ....but natural history is way out in front ....bit disappointed only 7/2 in such a big race but a winner before chelt is a winner .....I'll be going 20pts win natural history with a 10pt saver on one true king at 16/1 as hes the value bet .....time to trust the ratings and blast off 

 

[Villa Chris]

Noticed some of the races for the festival have now cut up a bit with some horses dropping out. Obviously final declarations won’t be until 48 hours before race day but I’m going to start rating a few from now until race day. The going is Good at the moment. There’s light rain forecast for rest of the week. If it remains Good will they water it to make it G/S ? Can’t see them wanting the going to be Good . G/S or Soft is what we want really. 

[Villa Chris]

Would you say the best way is to rate the field before taking trends into account. It just seems easier that way rather than doing trends first . 
 

saying that some races you can narrow a field down to just a select few horses so it will probably be better to do trends first and cut the field down a bit . Obviously some trends are not worth bothering with. 

Edited March 10, 2021 by Villa Chris