richard-westwood Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 On 3/11/2021 at 12:07 PM, Villa Chris said: The Ultima Handicap Chase, Cheltenham Coko Beach 9.9 ,12/1 Remastered 8.5 ,11/1 Storm Control 8 ,20/1 Just Your Type 7.7, 66/1 Aye Right 7.55, 10/1 Milan Native 7.5, 16/1 The Irish have a poor record in this race so that leaves question marks over Coko Beach and Milan Native. Coko Beach is also rated 151 so will be carrying too much weight, along with Aye Right who is 154. Storm Control and Just Your Type seem too exposed to win this with the latter only rated 132 and fell on his only run at Cheltenham. Storm Control has got a very good course record though and rated a nice 142 which is the average rating of the winner of this race. Remastered seems to tick a lot of trends, although hasn’t ran at festival before which is a negative . Will review ratings once final decs are set in stone I've rated the race 4 times now with diff criteria ...I.e recent form ....course form ...class etc and I've pointed the most common horses ..... Happygolucky 8.8 Coko beach 8.6 Remastered 8.4 Happy crops up on all 4....coko and remastered on 3 of 4 .... Now I know coko has been backed into 8/1 .....is he running ???....cos 20.0 available still on betfair Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: I've rated the race 4 times now with diff criteria ...I.e recent form ....course form ...class etc and I've pointed the most common horses ..... Happygolucky 8.8 Coko beach 8.6 Remastered 8.4 Happy crops up on all 4....coko and remastered on 3 of 4 .... Now I know coko has been backed into 8/1 .....is he running ???....cos 20.0 available still on betfair We’ll find out tomorrow. I’ve read he’s probably not. The Irish have a terrible record in this race. It’s just not a race they are bothered about, but if he runs then you’d think he’s got as much chance as any of the other fancied horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: We’ll find out tomorrow. I’ve read he’s probably not. The Irish have a terrible record in this race. It’s just not a race they are bothered about, but if he runs then you’d think he’s got as much chance as any of the other fancied horses. I've looked at his entries and its ultima or couple of nothing races .....illbe surprised if he doesnt go for it tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 (edited) 14 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I've looked at his entries and its ultima or couple of nothing races .....illbe surprised if he doesnt go for it tbh A load have dropped out of the Ultima . No coko beach either. The supreme/arkle/champion hurdle are disappointedly small fields Edited March 14, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: A load have dropped out of the Ultima . No coko beach either. The supreme/arkle/champion hurdle are disappointedly small fields I'll have to rerate everything one last time tonight .....ridiculous.....they need to start doing 5 day entries ....people have been asking for that for ages .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: A load have dropped out of the Ultima . No coko beach either. The supreme/arkle/champion hurdle are disappointedly small fields What's going on .???....8 runners in the supreme???...I've never seen that ever ....well that's pulled the rug out .... Edited March 14, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: What's going on .???....8 runners in the supreme???...I've never seen that ever ....well that's pulled the rug out .... The arkle I understand but that’s poor for the supreme and the champion hurdle seems on the small side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 (edited) Final ratings for The Ultima Aye Right 7.55 3rd Milan Native 7.5 Fingerontheswitch 7.4 Vintage Clouds 7.35 won Happygolucky 7.25 2nd One For The Team 7.2 5th Pym 7.05 Sky are paying 7 places so I’ve put top 7 rated up . Aye Right was 5th rated and luckily I gambled on him being closer to the top and it’s paid off. The 4 rated above him have all dropped out. He’s currently 11/2 but I got on him at 10/1. Milan Native I will also play. 3rd and 4th are a good price but surely too old and exposed to win this. Aye Right 10/1 ew Milan Native 9/1 ew Vintage Clouds 20/1 ew(added this morning on another thread Edited March 16, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 (edited) Supreme final ratings Appreciate It 8.25 Metier 8 Ballyadam 8 These 3 clear of the rest and the field has completely broken up which is not great . Appreciate It might be left to make the pace which is no problem for him at all, but pity it’s such a small field. I’ll play the top 3 as sky are offering money back and I’ll use Metier as my money back bet. Paying 3 places on the place money Appreciate It 6/1 Ballyadam 12/1 ew Metier 4/1(money back if loses) Edited March 14, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 On 3/13/2021 at 9:08 AM, Wildgarden said: Tuesday Cheltenham 230 Ultima Happy go lucky 5-1 skybet, escaria ten Betfair sp and remastered Betfair sp are my picks. Changed horse numbers now to confuse things. Will just go fav happy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Ultima final ratings Happygolucky 8.5 Cepage 8.2 Discordantly 7.9 One for the team 7.6 Aye right 7.5 Well....with a load of races cutting up I may as well just concentrate of the big hcaps and just go for the big win .....already got happygo at 7/1 for 20pts .....cepage has consistently cropped up across all ratings ...I think hes a bit high but it's a strange year so I can see trends being busted this year I'll take a big chance on discordantky ...poor recent form figures but was running well at this distance before falling so if can get round is looking well hcaaped currently ... 3 against field Happygolucky ..already backed 20pt win 7/1 Cepage 20pt win 20.0 betfair Discordantly 20pt win 17.0 betfair Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Ultima final ratings Happygolucky 8.5 Cepage 8.2 Discordantly 7.9 One for the team 7.6 Aye right 7.5 Well....with a load of races cutting up I may as well just concentrate of the big hcaps and just go for the big win .....already got happygo at 7/1 for 20pts .....cepage has consistently cropped up across all ratings ...I think hes a bit high but it's a strange year so I can see trends being busted this year I'll take a big chance on discordantky ...poor recent form figures but was running well at this distance before falling so if can get round is looking well hcaaped currently ... 3 against field Happygolucky ..already backed 20pt win 7/1 Cepage 20pt win 20.0 betfair Discordantly 20pt win 17.0 betfair Cepage I got at 24.0 ...changed as I put it on ....that's got to be value Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 On 3/11/2021 at 10:13 AM, richard-westwood said: 2nd hcap of the Tuesday Boodles juvenile Saint sam 8.6 7/1 11/2 no value Busselton 8.1 10/1 8/1 no value Tinnahslla 7.6 12/1 20/1 good value Nassalam 7.6 12/1 12/1 value Hous gris 7.5 12/1 5/1 poor value Coltor 7.2 13/1 9/1 no value Overall I cant see past the top 2 here ...both were beaten by quixiloios which us no shame and with improvement to come I think the others might struggle to take these 2 on .....could go ew but strong bets so I'll be going 20pt wins 11/2 and 8/1 Added tinnahalla 10pt win at 33/1 be cause looks crazy value .....and another outsider her indoors who I like as a potential improver 10pt at 32.0 betfair .....that's this race covered I can move on to weds now ?? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 OK, my dart at the Ultima. Pym 19.7 Happygolucky 18.6 Cepage 18.45 Aye Right 18.35 Alnadam 16.25 OK Corral 16.05 Milan Native 15.80 Vintage Clouds 15.40 My odds range 11/1 to 15/1. Pym and Cepage both value bets. Struggle to get any prices down near 5/1 may need a rethink. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Final ratings for The Ultima Aye Right 7.55 Milan Native 7.5 Fingerontheswitch 7.4 Vintage Clouds 7.35 Happygolucky 7.25 One For The Team 7.2 Pym 7.05 Sky are paying 7 places so I’ve put top 7 rated up . Aye Right was 5th rated and luckily I gambled on him being closer to the top and it’s paid off. The 4 rated above him have all dropped out. He’s currently 11/2 but I got on him at 10/1. Milan Native I will also play. 3rd and 4th are a good price but surely too old and exposed to win this. Aye Right 10/1 ew Milan Native 9/1 ew Glad to see you have Fingerontheswitch & Vintage Clouds in your ratings that the two i have backed e/w for 7 places at 33/1 & 16/1....not too old for me many a good tune played on an old fiddle. Edited March 14, 2021 by Tedthewolf Wrong price put in. Villa Chris and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Final bets for day 1 Supreme Metier already backed 20pt ew 7/1 I think fav will be hard to beat but metier is training well at home and ready to give it his best Champion hurdle Sticking with the girls....honeysuckle I have 20pts 3/1 .....epatante who I think will win 20pt at 9/2 Ultima Happygolucky Cepage Discordantly 20pt on each Boodles Saint sam Busselton Her indoors Tinnahalla none runner...replaced with sage advice Villa Chris, Wildgarden, vikki37 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Coral cup weds Craigniche...7.8 Thomas Darby 7.7 Botox has 7.3 Monte carlo 7.3 Grand Roi 7.3 Boreham bill 7.1 After applying trends I'm left with Craigniche 12/1 Botox has 16/1 Grand Roi 7/1 20pt on each Villa Chris and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Grandxannual weds Chosen mate 7.4 Western miller 7.2 Embittered 7.1 Ibleo 7 Skypirate 7 Us and them 6.8 Wide open as youd expect....western Miller is 50/1 .....has ti improve on recent form but I'll go for it .....its cheltenham you never know Too 3 20pt wins ...14/1 .... 50/1 ...6/1 Villa Chris, Wildgarden and Pirate53 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 53 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Final bets for day 1 Supreme Metier already backed 20pt ew 7/1 I think fav will be hard to beat but metier is training well at home and ready to give it his best Champion hurdle Sticking with the girls....honeysuckle I have 20pts 3/1 .....epatante who I think will win 20pt at 9/2 Ultima Happygolucky Cepage Discordantly 20pt on each Boodles Saint sam Busselton Her indoors Tinnahalla none runner...replaced with sage advice Thanks for doing this haven't had time with work and home life so busy and doing my.main stuff. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Will sort through day two handicaps tonight. I’ve decided a lot of the graded races I’m not going to bother. I find it hard to rate some of them up for example the boodles, and others have just fell apart and no value really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Villa Chris said: Will sort through day two handicaps tonight. I’ve decided a lot of the graded races I’m not going to bother. I find it hard to rate some of them up for example the boodles, and others have just fell apart and no value really. Yeah that's why I'm sticking mainly to a couple of big hcaps a day ....I'll watch the other races with the usual excitement but it's the excitement of chasing the big win for me ...won or lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Yeah that's why I'm sticking mainly to a couple of big hcaps a day ....I'll watch the other races with the usual excitement but it's the excitement of chasing the big win for me ...won or lose I’m hoping I can get back early tomorrow for it. Most of my money will be going on handicaps now. The Stayers hurdle will be good to rate which is a grade 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Coral cup weds Craigniche...7.8 Thomas Darby 7.7 Botox has 7.3 Monte carlo 7.3 Grand Roi 7.3 Boreham bill 7.1 After applying trends I'm left with Craigniche 12/1 Botox has 16/1 Grand Roi 7/1 20pt on each Been keeping an eye on Botox Has for a bit now. Form has dropped but I fancy him to run at big race at a course he’s proven at. Hopefully he rated high on my ratings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Epatante is a very good price. If she’s 100% I think she will sneak it. She’s got to be at it though because the field is too strong . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 27 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Epatante is a very good price. If she’s 100% I think she will sneak it. She’s got to be at it though because the field is too strong . Home reports are suggesting shes right back to her best ....all will be revealed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Home reports are suggesting shes right back to her best ....all will be revealed Henderson been saying that for a while about Altior. I’d take what he says with a pinch of salt but what a race we have on our hands here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) National Hunt Chase day one( forgot to put this up last night) Next Destination 8.05 Remastered 7.7 Galvin 6.6 Next Destination 10 points win 7/2 Remastered 5 points ew 8/1 Edited March 15, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Coral Cup Dans Le Vent 7.75 Monte Cristo 7.25 Grand Roi 7.2 Garo De Juilley 7.15 Craigneiche 7 Boreham Bill 7 Top rated has a few trends against him but nice price. 2nd and 3rd look more likely if you add trends . Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) Grand Annual Challenge Cup Ben Doran 8.35 Sky Pirate 8 Duc Des Genievres 7.75 Entoucas 7.6 Us And Them 7.6 Or Juana De Somoza 7.45 Amoola Gold 7.3 Theinval 7.2 Really like Gordon Elliotts Or Juana De Somaza at 33/1 for this . He has a cracking record in handicaps at the festival . Edited March 15, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Managed to leave work early so can watch it all unfold . It’s the missus day off so she’s not impressed that’s she’s lost the tv on her day off, but she knows the rules. MCLARKE, Pirate53, Tedthewolf and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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