richard-westwood Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Saturday eider chase Big river 7.7 13/2 7/1 value Crossley tender 6.8 8/1 12/1 good value Salty boy 6.7 I've omitted salty boy because hes never won a race over chase so doesnt have the experience for me .....top 2 look fair ew value in a really tough race so are as good as any ...I'll play Villa Chris, Wildgarden and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Saturday eider chase Big river 7.7 13/2 7/1 value Crossley tender 6.8 8/1 12/1 good value Salty boy 6.7 I've omitted salty boy because hes never won a race over chase so doesnt have the experience for me .....top 2 look fair ew value in a really tough race so are as good as any ...I'll play Good to see big river up there thats the one i think has a cracking e/w shot some bookies going 4 places skybet going 5 vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said: Good to see big river up there thats the one i think has a cracking e/w shot some bookies going 4 places skybet going 5 Yeah ...if you forgive him that last race where he seemed to overheat before the race...then he has to have a good chance with conditions to suit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: Yeah ...if you forgive him that last race where he seemed to overheat before the race...then he has to have a good chance with conditions to suit Yeah that is a bit of a worry seemed to have overheated a few time in the past so not a one off fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 “What we doing tonight then Chris” Romantic meal, cuddle up and watch a film , or one of those early nights we like to have ? My response “ You can do what ya like bab , I’m rating races tonight” Tedthewolf, vikki37, richard-westwood and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Close brothers hcap saturday kempton Al dancer 7.7 12/1 7/1 poor value Clondaw castle 7.3 13/1 9/1 poor value Aso 6.9 14/1 20/1 good value Erik le rouge 6.8 14/1 25/1 excellent value Slate house 6 7 15/1 14/1 no value Double shuffle 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value Black corton 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value As youd expect an ultra competitive hcap ...... tends to go to a younger horse with older horses 10 + fairing badly so that scrubs black corton ..aso ....and double shuffle Also you need to be in form with poor recent run horses fairing badly so that loses al dancer and Erik le rouge That leaves clondaw castle and slate house .. .I'm happy with those 2 ew in a difficult race Wildgarden, vikki37 and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 (edited) Eider Chase Newcastle Sams Adventure 7.2, 4/1(9/1) no value won Cross park 7.1, 5/1(9/1) no value pu Crossley Tender 6.9, 9/1(9/1-10/1)about right 2nd Big River 6.4, 6/1(10/1) no value pu Nothing really jumping out at me here. Got to be an ew race and Crossley Tender looks the bet . 5 points ew Crossley Tender 9/1 Edited February 27, 2021 by Villa Chris richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 3.35 Kempton Double Shuffle 8.45, 10/1(13/1) no value Cap Du Nord 8.2, 5/1(13/1-14/1) no value The Butcher Said 8.15, 11/1(14/1) no value Slate House 7.75, 12/1(15/1) no value Black Corton 7.65, 9/1(15/1) no value not much value but I’ll play top rated and The Butcher Said ew . I’m glad The Butcher Said rated highly because I think he’s set up to win a nice pot and this could be it. Double Shuffle 10/1 5 points ew The Butcher Said 11/1 5 points ew Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. Second went on to finish second again Third won next time up Fifth went on to finish second Sixth won next time up He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: 3.35 Kempton Double Shuffle 8.45, 10/1(13/1) no value Cap Du Nord 8.2, 5/1(13/1-14/1) no value The Butcher Said 8.15, 11/1(14/1) no value Slate House 7.75, 12/1(15/1) no value Black Corton 7.65, 9/1(15/1) no value not much value but I’ll play top rated and The Butcher Said ew . I’m glad The Butcher Said rated highly because I think he’s set up to win a nice pot and this could be it. Double Shuffle 10/1 5 points ew The Butcher Said 11/1 5 points ew My main fancy Double Shuffle price is tight imo but i think it will drift i want better than 12's. I've had a small e/w bet on Fingersontheswitch at 12's again thats tight will back again if drifts i also like a 33/1 outsider i think there is plenty more improvement to come and thats jon jo's Young Wolf nice one for you chris being a villa fan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 49 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. Second went on to finish second again Third won next time up Fifth went on to finish second Sixth won next time up He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . Just seen this i agree but seems to be drifting hopefully get a better e/w way price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 25 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: My main fancy Double Shuffle price is tight imo but i think it will drift i want better than 12's. I've had a small e/w bet on Fingersontheswitch at 12's again thats tight will back again if drifts i also like a 33/1 outsider i think there is plenty more improvement to come and thats jon jo's Young Wolf nice one for you chris being a villa fan! Young Wolf rated up quite well. Like a few of them he’ll appreciate the good ground . Tends to do his winning in small fiends though, although he’s ran well enough in larger fields. Can see Double Shuffle going off at 8/1-9/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: Can see Double Shuffle going off at 8/1-9/1. Has drifred to 20's on betfair but thats win only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Graded race practice race 3.00 kemp Atholl street 10.0. Calico 8.5 Lunar sovereign 8.3 Just getting some rating practice in for non hcaps ....atholl street won very very easily last time and looks classy so should be hard to beat but calico is an improver and could give him a race if he doesnt fire ....atholl street to win easily Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 On 2/26/2021 at 11:01 AM, Tedthewolf said: Good to see big river up there thats the one i think has a cracking e/w shot some bookies going 4 places skybet going 5 Crossley tender 2nd ....ew value ran well vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 On 2/26/2021 at 2:52 PM, Villa Chris said: Eider Chase Newcastle Sams Adventure 7.2, 4/1(9/1) no value Cross park 7.1, 5/1(9/1) no value Crossley Tender 6.9, 9/1(9/1-10/1)about right Big River 6.4, 6/1(10/1) no value Nothing really jumping out at me here. Got to be an ew race and Crossley Tender looks the bet . 5 points ew Crossley Tender 9/1 Nice rating Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 (edited) On 2/26/2021 at 2:33 PM, richard-westwood said: Close brothers hcap saturday kempton Al dancer 7.7 12/1 7/1 poor value Clondaw castle 7.3 13/1 9/1 poor value Aso 6.9 14/1 20/1 good value Erik le rouge 6.8 14/1 25/1 excellent value Slate house 6 7 15/1 14/1 no value Double shuffle 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value Black corton 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value As youd expect an ultra competitive hcap ...... tends to go to a younger horse with older horses 10 + fairing badly so that scrubs black corton ..aso ....and double shuffle Also you need to be in form with poor recent run horses fairing badly so that loses al dancer and Erik le rouge That leaves clondaw castle and slate house .. .I'm happy with those 2 ew in a difficult race Clondaw castle wins .....with the value bet erik le rouge 2nd ....really happy with that in such a difficult race ...aso was a none runner so they were 2nd and 3rd rated Edited February 27, 2021 by richard-westwood Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 On 2/26/2021 at 3:51 PM, Villa Chris said: 3.35 Kempton Double Shuffle 8.45, 10/1(13/1) no value Cap Du Nord 8.2, 5/1(13/1-14/1) no value The Butcher Said 8.15, 11/1(14/1) no value Slate House 7.75, 12/1(15/1) no value Black Corton 7.65, 9/1(15/1) no value not much value but I’ll play top rated and The Butcher Said ew . I’m glad The Butcher Said rated highly because I think he’s set up to win a nice pot and this could be it. Double Shuffle 10/1 5 points ew The Butcher Said 11/1 5 points ew Ew money on Double Shuffle but the ratings dismissed the up and coming horses that tend to run well in this when upped in distance. As they say 3m at Kempton is like going 2.5 elsewhere. I’ll try and learn from that mistake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 On 2/26/2021 at 2:52 PM, Villa Chris said: Eider Chase Newcastle Sams Adventure 7.2, 4/1(9/1) no value won Cross park 7.1, 5/1(9/1) no value pu Crossley Tender 6.9, 9/1(9/1-10/1)about right 2nd Big River 6.4, 6/1(10/1) no value pu Nothing really jumping out at me here. Got to be an ew race and Crossley Tender looks the bet . 5 points ew Crossley Tender 9/1 This went better MCLARKE, richard-westwood, Pirate53 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Using Trends helped today ..narrowed from a potential 6 to 2 ...hopefully the marriage of the 2 at cheltenham where the trends are even stronger ... will really pay dividends .....going to be a lot of fun Villa Chris and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Well done today guys my picks where mainly crap. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Naas 2.30 (7 runners) handicap Fully Charged 8, 13/2(5/1) value Enjoy D’ Allen 7.9, 5/2(5/1) no value School Boy Hours 7.65, 5/2(5/1-11/2) no value 6 points win on Fully Charged 13/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 (edited) 630 Chelmsford at your service 8.4 and cathedans fury Ew 27.0 / 6.2. shecandoo 7.8 Edited February 27, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 630 Chelmsford at your service 8.4 and cathedans fury Ew 27.0 / 6.2. shecandoo 7.8 2nd rated wins wasn't value so didn't follow sadly lol cathedans fury ran decent race maybe put off slightly at the end. One to watch! Edited February 27, 2021 by Wildgarden Villa Chris and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LLOYDY Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 6:01 AM, Augustus said: Hi Richard. Could you please send me the file to try. [email protected] thanks a million @richard-westwood could you send me it too? [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LLOYDY Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 2nd rated wins wasn't value so didn't follow sadly lol cathedans fury ran decent race maybe put off slightly at the end. One to watch! Hi all, Just caught up on this thread some really interesting reading, could I be really cheeky and look at your data tables for the races which have produced your ratings? Intrigued to how you calculate etc. My background is research (unfortunately Ipsos Mori nothing to do with horses). Can you share I'd love to analyse it? [email protected] Edited February 27, 2021 by LLOYDY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Getting as much big race practice as I can on my days off so I'm ready ... 5.00 naas 20 runners You say nothing 7.4 499 8/1 15/2 no value Aaron's day 6.4 476 14/1 2/1 poor value Bua boy 6.3 451 14/1 16/1 value bet No memory 6.3 420 14/1 25/1 good value Bydesametoken 6.3 484 14/1 14/1 value Moonlight glory 6.2 430 14/1 14/1 value Combination of mine and ratings leaves You say nothing 15/2 499 Aaron's day 2/1 476 6.4 Bydesametoken 14/1 6.3 484 I'll try ew bets you say nothing and bytgesametokens 6places with sky And 6 x1pt forecasts Wildgarden, Villa Chris and BBBC 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 (edited) 3.00 Naas Grade 2 Echoes In Rain 6.2, 13/8(7/2) no value won Razzle Dazzle Love 5, 7/2(5/1) no value Belfast Banter 4.85, 11/1(11/2) value2nd Just a practise. Edited February 28, 2021 by Villa Chris vikki37 and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 (edited) Fontwell 3.10 Grade 2 McFabulous 9, 4/5(7/2) no value 2nd Brewing’ upastorm 7.75, 5/2(4/1-9/2) no value won Reserve Tank 7, 22/1(9/2-5/1) value Reserve Tank has some excellent hurdle form from his hurdling days. Comes back to this sphere from chasing and has been off for a bit now so probably best watched. The favourite looks solid anyway and should win. Practise ratings. Edited February 28, 2021 by Villa Chris vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 (edited) 17 hours ago, LLOYDY said: Hi all, Just caught up on this thread some really interesting reading, could I be really cheeky and look at your data tables for the races which have produced your ratings? Intrigued to how you calculate etc. My background is research (unfortunately Ipsos Mori nothing to do with horses). Can you share I'd love to analyse it? [email protected] Same as Richards but I have video bonus for where horse unlucky or raced well at certain point in race and track bonuses for draws and long trend bonuses or deduction like the minus 15% to heavy and soft going to heavy horses. Edited February 28, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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