richard-westwood Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Busy the weekend so just getting ahead ......I've been testing 4 diff versions of my ratings side by side for the past few weeks and I didn't think there would be much difference tbh but unadjusted ratings with no attempt to bring each horses ratings on a par with each other won hands down .....it is effectively the rawest rating the computer throws out but it won by 100% more winners ....even got 25/1 2nd ....40/1 ew in big hcaps so I'll adjust my ratings to the new scale from now on and hopefully it will throw up some nice winners over the next few weeks ...... Close brothers hcap sat I had fancied vale of Kent for this but none runner Cardsharp 418 Danyah 413 These 2 are a bit clear of next horse so easy picks Cardsharp 10pts win 10/1 bet365 Danyah 10pts win 3/1 generally yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 Cambridgeshire has just finished printing off ....currently 29 runners Anythingtoday 411 Fifth position 406 Balgair 404 Afaak 404 Sinjaari 401 Bell rock 401 As you can imagine .....total pinsticker in one of the hardest races going but computer is very hot on the chances of anythingtoday so I'll be looking at ew bet at huge prices I'd imagine given the nature of the race ......afaak is a good horse on his day but 2 poor recent runs are very off putting so I'm omitting ....balgair is interesting improver near the foot of the weights and could be anything but has he got the class to take a race of this nature ???...I'm not sure .....fifth position definately has the class and the ability so he would be my 2nd choice currently prices permitting ....will update when prices available Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 15 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Cambridgeshire has just finished printing off ....currently 29 runners Anythingtoday 411 Fifth position 406 Balgair 404 Afaak 404 Sinjaari 401 Bell rock 401 As you can imagine .....total pinsticker in one of the hardest races going but computer is very hot on the chances of anythingtoday so I'll be looking at ew bet at huge prices I'd imagine given the nature of the race ......afaak is a good horse on his day but 2 poor recent runs are very off putting so I'm omitting ....balgair is interesting improver near the foot of the weights and could be anything but has he got the class to take a race of this nature ???...I'm not sure .....fifth position definately has the class and the ability so he would be my 2nd choice currently prices permitting ....will update when prices available 10pts ew fifth position 18/1 betvic 10pts ew anythingtoday 33/1 Boyle's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 NM 335 1pt EW Sir Busker 14/1 PP (7 places) Comb F/C 1,2,3,4 (12 bets) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Listed Handicap 245 Market Rasen 2pts Highly Prized 7/1 bet365 F/C Combo 2,7,8 (6 bets) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 (edited) 3.35 Newmarket paying 8 places Ilaraab e/w 8/1 non runner Montatham e/w 14/1 Lost Certain Lad e/w 25/1 Lost 4.40 Newmarket Vale Of Kent 7/1 won (rule 4) Market Rasen , 2.45 Zambella e/w 10/1 Lost Edited September 26, 2020 by Villa Chris Mistake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 The Cambrigeshire One horse only for me in this have had a very good e/w dabble on it think it has a cracking chance after a 3rd in this last year his only run over the trip less weight this time around although this is a very tough handicap i'm very conifdent this horse will come with a late rattle and will be in the first eight home GOOD BIRTHDAY 20/1 skybet 8places yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Thankfully I made some money at Moonee Valley earlier as it is has been tough on the Australian action of late. More top action tomorrow with Group 1's at both Caulfield and Rosehill. I have bets in 7 races plus an across the card double. Caulfield R1 (3.45am) I put up How Womantic when she won last time and I think she can continue her good form in this. She is stepping up in trip and the only time she has been beaten was over this trip, but here she looks set to get an easy lead in front and this isn't as strong a contest so I think she can go 6/7. How Womantic @ 2/1 with Bet365 Caulfield R2 (4.20am) A wide open race but a couple against the field. Duke Of Plumpton was impressive on his first Aussie start and then ran good 2nds the next twice before disappointing last time. He has good 1st up stats and he likes wet tracks. Rainbow Thief is the other one who ran some good races the last prep. He has poor 1st up stats so should improve plenty from his run earlier in the month. Duke Of Pumpton @ 6/1 with Bet365 Rainbow Thief @ 6/1 with Bet365 Caulfield R3 (4.55am) Wyclif is making his first start in Australia after running for Ralph Beckett over here. He only had one start this season and he ran well off top weight at Royal Ascot. Both wins at 2 came over 1400m, but he looks a stayer as he showed at Royal Ascot. 2000m seems a good trip to start him off at and he looks well weighted to me if ready 1st up. I am going to give Skyman another chance as well. He was poor at Moonee Valley last time, but he was dropping down to 1600m and he wouldn't be the first to not handle the tight track. I think he's better than that so will give him another chance. Skyman @ 5/1 with Bet365 Wyclif e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred (4 places if 16 or more runners) Caulfield R5 (6.10am) I thought Windstorm should have won at Flemington and Pike just held on to him for a bit too long. This looks a good opportunity to make amends. Windstorm @ 27/20 with Bet365 Rosehill R2 (4.05am) Exemplar looks set to get an easy lead here and that could be good enough. He showed some good form over hurdles earlier in the year, but has returned to the flat in good heart as well. He showed up well in a strong race last time. I am also going to have a small bet on ex-German Djukon who will appreciate stepping up in trip and I don't think he's shown what he's fully capable off yet in Oz. Exemplar @ 5/2 with Bet365 Djukon e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Rosehill R3 (4.40am) This is wide open, but I have to go with Across Dubai again. Things didn't go his way last time when he disappointed, but he has shown the form capable of winning a race like this. He has a much better draw and should be able to settle closer to the speed. He is a massive price, but I am happy to give him a chance. Across Dubai @ 33/1 with Betfred (4 places if 16 or more run) Rosehill R7 (7.10am) The big race on the card and Rothfire will be hard to beat, but I am going to take a chance with Ole Kirk. He ran some fast splits behind him last time and the time before that he was 2nd to Anders. I think stepping up in this trip is going to suit and I am hopeful of at least getting the place part of the bet up. Ole Kirk e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill Double Russian Camelot goes in the big race at Caulfield at 8.05am and the Melbourne Cup favourite ought to be winning. He ran a massive race 1st up and I think he will be hard to beat here. In the last race at Rosehill I think Masked Crusader can win. He's gone off odds on in both starts this prep and has been beaten, but there were excuses both times and there shouldn't be here. I think he will be too good for them. Russian Camelot/Masked Crusader double @ 2.65/1 with Betfred vikki37 and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Just done the speed figures for 3x 2yo TV races 225 NM umm kalthum 300 NM the lir jet 315 CU ace aussie (6 pts clear) 8/1 14/1 6/1 lets see how they get on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andypandy23 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Ole Kirk!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 (edited) One Trixie today 2.10 M/R Luck Of The draw £2 win at 9/2 3.55 M/R Say Nothing £2 win at 4.7 =£7.25 Only 3/1 for Trixie 4.40 NM Documenting £2 win at 7/2 One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £163.75 I will be playing around with my insurance lay bets but will not report on them until I at least have October's results for analysis Other Equaliser bets 1.35 M/R Royal Magic £1.20 win at 11/2 (can't justify a £2 win with 2 hot fancies at the market front end) 2.10 M/R Neverbeentoparis £1.20 win at 17/2 4.10 N/M Neptune's Wonder £1.20 win at 8/1 Total Mutliples = £4 Total singles so far = £9.60 = Total stakes so far £13.60 I'll be back. as Arnie once said ====================================================================================================== A blank day all round. The main sporting press were all extolling the virtues of Documenting in the 4.40 at Newmarket today Only up 4lbs they said and has a good chance of winning. But just before the race the TV commentator was saying how a horse rated 105 would have difficulty winning a race such as that. It's price drifted to 9/2 from 7/2 and it ran no race to speak of at all finishing 7th beaten 7 lengths. This is what annoys me about the sporting press; if a TV commnetator knew this why did they not point it out? A £4 loss on multiples = a balance c/fwd of £670.69 (Bank £800) A £9.60 hit on my singles meant a new balance c/fwd of £221.67 (Bank £400). Don't know why this balance is doing so bad? On a brighter note I did back @Bathtime For Rupert nap (thanks again). In reality I only lost £1.07 on the day. Three UK meetings tomorrow so should have some fun looking through them Edited September 26, 2020 by The Equaliser Results Update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 1.15 Newmarket - 2pts win Quilted @ 11/2 Bet365 I don't think any of those with runs are bombproof here and you have to be drawn to the full sister to Quadrilateral on debut for the same connections. Will be interesting to see how she goes in the market but very well related and in a winnable race on debut, isn't a bad price. 1.30 Haydock - 2pts win Saligo Bay @ 9/2 Hills I think Saligo Bay's form when 3rd at Doncaster is the best in the race, keeping on well to the line whilst still shaping as if in need of the experience. Would expect improvement today and can go forward and try to dominate these from near the front. Action suggests any give in the ground won't inconvenience so primed to go well. 2.05 Haydock - 1pt e/w Just Hiss @ 9/1 Bet365 With the favourite in here a 5/2 shot who narrowly got the better of Just Hiss at Ripon recently, I think the value is with Tim Easterby's runner. Won despite everything going wrong at that venue three starts ago and I think paid for making its challenge too soon there next time. Ran over 1m2f in good company last time but at this level is better at a mile and holds each-way hopes here at a handy price. 2.10 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Bandsman @ 9/1 Bet365 Unlucky not to have won this season having looked a certain winner at Uttoxeter a couple of starts back over 3m2f. Better over shorter, however, and the return to 2m5f on good ground will be ideal. On a fair mark still and the form of its 3rd last time - again over slightly too far - reads well. 3.20 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Cawthorne @ 12/1 Bet365 This horse loves to fall or be pulled up but nothing like a bit of Saturday afternoon entertainment. I actually think he has a decent each-way chance here. Clearly best on a sound surface so can forgive his runs last season and has shaped well on three of his four runs over fences this year. Only faded on the run-in first time out after a break, fell when holding a chance at the last the time after and was creeping into it going quite well when falling 4 out last time. Returns to hurdles here with conditions to suit and hopefully he can get round today! 3.35 Newmarket - 1pt e/w King Carney @ 28/1 Bet365 Was decent last year including when winning a listed race at Pontefract and has had excuses this year - didn't stay in the Lingfield Derby trial and then was essentially the pacemaker in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot, setting the race up for the closers up the straight. Bounced back with a solid run last time out behind Tempus, looking likely to drop out of it before rallying well and was coming back at the finish. Is just a galloper so can race handy here and just keep grinding - probably would prefer slightly softer ground but this shouldn't be too lively and hopefully will get a run for my money at a big price. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Just the one selection for me 10pts ew 18/1 Unibet 6 places The Equaliser, richard-westwood and nenad986 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Just the one selection for me 10pts ew 18/1 Unibet 6 places Sigh........ 7th ? The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said: Sigh........ 7th ? Very unlucky Skybet where paying 8 place it may be worth watching out for which bookie pays the most place in these big field handicaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Would have finished 9th then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 lol yeah thats usually the way it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Tedthewolf said: Very unlucky Skybet where paying 8 place it may be worth watching out for which bookie pays the most place in these big field handicaps? Sly bet dont like me, neither do PP or else Id have used them, so I have to use whats available .If it had been a decent bet I'd use my lads account but for the sake of £10ew not worth bothering. Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 21 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 3.35 Newmarket paying 8 places Ilaraab e/w 8/1 non runner Montatham e/w 14/1 Lost Certain Lad e/w 25/1 Lost 4.40 Newmarket Vale Of Kent 7/1 won (rule 4) Market Rasen , 2.45 Zambella e/w 10/1 Lost Vale of Kent saves the day. Returned 33 points profit on the day vikki37, The Equaliser and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said: Very unlucky Skybet where paying 8 place it may be worth watching out for which bookie pays the most place in these big field handicaps? They were but they had the worst prices, often the case with Sky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 Their prices are not so bad on the friday night think anythingtoday was 22/1 but the problem with that is it is not bog, But on staurdays when price are bog prices are not great bet365 usually the best but least places and there prices are not great on fridays as they are already bog. You pay your money and take your chance i guess but for me as i back big priced horses i rather have slighty less odds but more places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: Their prices are not so bad on the friday night think anythingtoday was 22/1 but the problem with that is it is not bog, But on staurdays when price are bog prices are not great bet365 usually the best but least places and there prices are not great on fridays as they are already bog. You pay your money and take your chance i guess but for me as i back big priced horses i rather have slighty less odds but more places. Yes, if you get on sky bet on a Friday you can grab the going odds. The dilemma you have which has happened to me a few times is that if the horses drift out on a Saturday you are stuck with lesser odds unless you throw more cash on your selections which I don’t like doing. Imo it’s neither here nor there with sky bet regarding odds. They do some good offers on race day with extra places and money back on a race if your selection finishes 2nd 3rd etc . If you are an e/w player then sky bet is decent with the extra places Edited September 27, 2020 by Villa Chris Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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