Tennis Tips - August 12 - August 18

[CzechPunter]

There's not that much that you need to understand when it comes to Kyrgios. When it comes to this sort of match-up, he's either focused and wins or lackluster and loses. There's essentially nothing in-between.

[MMABetting97]

Are there any "tells" I should be looking at live? Signs to recognize that Kyrgios is giving up?

[Torque]

I wonder what the record is for double faults in a match. Sascha just served 20 

[CzechPunter]

@MMABetting97 It's usually rather easy to tell in his case, he likes to be *VERY* blatant in that regard, not even going for returns etc.

[darko08]

@CzechPunter Yep, it’s interesting. Gasquet has not really been tested in this tournament. Murray is still far from been competitive in singles and Delbonis doesn’t feel comfortable on this surface while Schwartzman had on Albot a very dangerous test (I did not watch that match but his win in straight sets against him is impressive). He won in Los Cabos so he’s definitely in a better form than Gasquet.

I’m impressed with the level of Struff today against Tsitsipas. Did you see that match? The statistics are impressive. Struff only conceded 1 Break Point in 3 sets and produced 5! He did 52 of 61 points on first serves (85%) and 23 of 37 on second serves (62%)! The result doesn’t reflect how superior Struff really has been today against Tsitsipas. I’m telling this because I’m thinking to bet for Struff in his match against Medvedev (is paid almost at 3.00). This guy has played 12 matches in 16 days, so my question is where is his limit¿? The main problem is that today Paire only has played the first set and has gifted the second one so I’m not sure how much energy the Russian still has. Anyway, I think that if Struff plays like he did today even with Medvedev playing good he still will have a change. What u think?

@MMABetting97 With Kyrgios is impossible to know. In Washington he was 100% implicated. Then in Toronto he was not interest and now looks like he's interested again (the numbers of his first match against Sonego are impressive). His problem is that he will have a very tough test now so let's see if he plays with the right mentality the whole match because he will need to do to win this one.

[CzechPunter]

@darko08 There might be some value in Struff based on that, the only issue that I have with him is his mentality. He's not a born winner and, although he's improved in the last year or two on that front, he's going to have a tough time facing someone who's the complete opposite right now. If he starts strongly, he should have a chance, but I don't see him coming back if he's asked to do that. My strategy would be to look at the odds if Struff wins the first set. If they are at least somewhat solid, I'd take them. If he loses the first set, however, I reckon that you can just close the live betting and not bother.

[darko08]

5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@darko08 There might be some value in Struff based on that, the only issue that I have with him is his mentality. He's not a born winner and, although he's improved in the last year or two on that front, he's going to have a tough time facing someone who's the complete opposite right now. If he starts strongly, he should have a chance, but I don't see him coming back if he's asked to do that.

Yep, that scares me a lot. Today he was leading the second set 5-4 and serving for the win. He was up 30-0 but then came the break and then lost the set in TB... 

[Torque]

I'd agree with backing Struff if he wins the first set, as I don't have Medvedev down as much of a fighter. He's fine if he's leading and he's generally sound at closing out but if he has to really fight my observation of him is that's not one of his strengths. If Struff does manage to win the first set and gets into a winning position in the second it's possible he could choke but that depends on Medvedev to a degree. Against Tsitsipas, Struff was always going to have to win every point as Tsitsipas isn't the type to give up and fights to the end whereas Medvedev, at least when I've watched him, sometimes looks like he's given up when he gets behind and that would make it easier for Struff to get over the line and get the win.

[Foxstar]

Novak Djoković to beat Pablo Carenno-Busta 2:1 at 5.50 with Betway

Novak started the tournament very relaxed and struggled in the first set against Query. It was his first match in the tournament and the first play since winning the Wimbledon and he looked quite sluggish. If he plays like this against Pablo, he is in  a danger of loosing the set. Overall he is however more complete and more superior player than the Spaniard and should therefore win this match. At 5.50 it is worth having a punt on this score.

[Grass Cash]

Sabalenka looks on fire from highlight i saw.. massive serving and adequate moving. I disagree with Czech about Gasquet.. Looks like a 50/50 match to me. Have not seen videos of either player recent matches.. I smell something with Rebecca Peterson.. She is hitting the ball well from the baseline, and these courts really exxagerate the spin of the ball. 

[Grass Cash]

Really good price on Kontaveit right now after taking the first set .. I have her winning this.. She looks physically fitter than Barty, and she's serving better also. .. i was going to post live on this first set but I'm really on a bad run here.. Anyways.. Hope that she wins.. I've taken her @ +250.. Obviously u can't get those odds now, but she looks really confident, and Barty is making alot of errors .. I guess really good price is inaccurate description, but I still believe she can do it after watching almost the entire first set.. Main reason is because of Barty's fitness level this match.. She looks slow 

Edited August 15, 2019 by money44

[CzechPunter]

That tie-break really stung in Schwartzman-Gasquet. Diego *5-2 up and lost it. Happens.

[MMABetting97]

Thoughts on Paullie - Khachanov? The betting public are betting the shit ouf of Khachanov because he beat Kyrgios yesterday. Don't you think there's value on Paullie at 2.80? I would think this is a 50/50 match..

[CzechPunter]

Maria Sakkari (+1.5 sets) to beat Ashleigh Barty at 1.90 with 888

Based on how unconvincing Barty was today, Sakkari should have every chance tomorrow. She's now dealt with two very strong players in a row, so she's clearly ready and should have no fear whatsoever.

[Teodore]

Guys what about bet triple Goffin + Medvedev + Bautista Agut? In my local i have 2.89, for me enough. Any suprise here? 

[cialivinci]

@Teodore i hope you did it ??

[CzechPunter]

Rublev is the big danger there imo.

[Bandiii]

Yea as Czech mentioned that Rublev (after  Federer, Waw, Basi, Kukush, Tomic) gonna lose its kinda hard to say.

maybe im gonna try the bet what they talked about yesterday, if Rublev wins the 1st set then im going to place some money on him around 1.8-2.00, its a "must-bet" value for me, and Medvedev is a person who can easily lose if he gets behind the opponent!

[kempazzo]

Agree about Rublev

@3.30 

He's on the rise and full of confidence. The same could be said about Medvedev, but his fatigue has already been discussed in this thread, so no need to repeat it. 

 

Also Czech's Sakkari bet looks good in my eyes.

[CzechPunter]

@Bandiii That looks really good in theory, but I guess that the odds are going to be around 1.57 in that case or something like that, not 1.80 and most definitely not 2.00 (unless he gets injured in the process). That still looks alright given the fatigue factor, but it might not be value. No criticism intended or anything, I just feel that this is worth saying.

[MMABetting97]

Is anyone picking Rublev to win pre match at 3.20?

[barssalou]

On 8/12/2019 at 3:08 PM, CzechPunter said:

*Almost* nothing in betting is free money.

true that! 

[CzechPunter]

Well, not a bad week!

[MMABetting97]

Gasquet - Bautista-Agut should be one sided domination for Bautista right?

[Grass Cash]

There was many opportunities to make money on the Sakkari - Barty match.. I loved the value of Sakkari pre-match but I couldn't quite get involved then, and decided to try in play.. Barty looked fitter than previous day, so I didn't feel comfortable backing Sakkari, and then just decided to opt out entirely after Sakkari won first set even tho Barty was probably available at odds of 2.8 or so as the second set began.. Good pick from Czech Punter.. Alot of times he takes those set handicaps and the player just wins outright instead which is always good. 

So now we have a couple of remaining matches wta.. I may watch Pliskova up next.. Hard to say what will happen here.. If Kenin wins vs Osaka - then I might take a shot with Venus Williams.. She's playing well, and I took her @ 3/1 yesterday in play.. pretty convincing win although it was more of a lay against Vekic.. Luck 

[Grass Cash]

If Kuznetsova wins then I'm off Venus Williams, and looking to bet Osaka vs young phenom Kenin.. Its tough matches .. Because i believe either Osaka or Venus will win .. have to choose one

[CzechPunter]

Svetlana Kuznetsova (+1.5 sets) to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.11 with Pinnacle

I wanted to stay away from the weekend, but this looks too juicy in all honesty. Kuznetsova is on a roll and there's going to be a tremendous pressure on Barty, as she has a chance to regain the top spot in the rankings this week. That tends to be hard to deal with.

[thegreatdom]

Berankis vs Jung Vancouver Final

Berankis semi final finished hours before Jungs, Berenkis also won his semi final comfortably 6-1 6-1. Yung managed to get through his semi on tie breaks in both sets. I think Berenkis is the better player not only in rating but during th whole tournament and can see this being concluded in straight sets. 

Berenkis to win 2-0 6/5 Bet365

 

Edited August 18, 2019 by thegreatdom
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