Tennis Tips - August 12 - August 18

[CzechPunter]

[darko08]

Madison Keys to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 1.67 with 888

Muguruza is in a very bad form. No matches played since Wimbledon where she lost her first match there against Beatriz Haddad Maia and broke with her coach after that. Keys has played 2 matches on hard this season. The first one was in Washington where she lost against Baptiste and the second one was in Toronto where she lost against Vekic in an incredible 3 set match (6-3, 6-7, 6-7). I watched that match and both players played incredibly well. Keys was superb on serve (15 aces 1 DF) conceding the first BP in the sixth game of the second set!

Yulia Putintseva to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.81 with 888

Putintseva only played 1 match on hard this season and it was a lost in straight sets against Wozniacki but I liked how she played the beginning of the first set. Ostapenko has played 4 matches since Wimbledon (2 wins and 2 loses). To be honest im not impressed with her 2 wins. I watched her win in straight sets against Garcia and that match was absolutely horrible. Both players played awful (the face of Caroline’s father was like “what the f**k is my daughter doing?). After that match she won against Pavlyuchenkova in a 3 set match and then was destroyed by Bouzkova (6-2, 6-2). Putintseva has the style of game that can trouble a lot Ostapenko.

Alison Riske to beat Maria Sharapova at 2.10 with 888

I see that Riske is still being underrated by the bookies despite her great state of form. She reached QF in Wimbledon losing in a tight match against Serena. After that she won Carol Zhao, Lepchenko and Sakkari in Toronto and finally lost against Karolina Pliskova in a 3 set match. The last time Sharapova won a match was in Mallorca against Kuzmova in June. She’s in a 3 losing streak: Kerber in Mallorca (6-2, 6-3), Parmentier in Wimbledon (6-4, 6-7, 0-5) and Kontaveit in Toronto (6-4, 3-6, 4-6). Riske is in better form and will play in home.

Maria Sakkari to beat Camila Giorgi at 1.72 with 888

This year has been horrible for Giorgi despite her recent Final in Washington. Im a little surprised for these odds considering the great form of Sakkari. Sakkari played in San José beating there Alexandrova, Mayo Hibi and Svitolina and losing in the Semifinals against the winner of the tournament: Saisai Zheng. Giorgi is one of the most aggressive players of the WTA and I expect that she will dominate Sakkari in some parts of the match but I see Sakkari too solid and I think that finally she will prevail.

[CzechPunter]

Saisai Zheng to beat Viktoria Kuzmova at 1.82 with Pinnacle

Kuzmova had some noteworthy results at the start of the year, but it's been a downhill ride for her since and she really hasn't been anywhere to be found recently, with struggles against many worse players than Zheng. Zheng did lose last time out, but that was understandable given her long week before. She should be rested and ready to go again.

[CzechPunter]

Mischa Zverev (+4.5) to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis at 1.91 with Pinnacle

Zverev had an absolutely terrible start to the season, but he's now recovered and I liked what I saw from him in Newport. I'm not saying that he's back and that he can do big things again, but he can start covering some serious handicap lines and this is one of those. Kokkinakis was crap against Gerasimov and it seems that he's just never fully fit, so I don't believe that he should be getting head starts like this.

[MMABetting97]

Does anyone else think Berretini to beat Londero at 1.36 is free money? 
Also Struff to beat Karlovic at 1.33? 
Doesn't that seem like free money?

[CzechPunter]

*Almost* nothing in betting is free money.

[MMABetting97]

That is true.I should have put free money in the " ". I know nothing is 100% in betting.
But shouldn't those 2 matches be easy match ups for them?

[darko08]

Berrettini has not played any match since Wimbledon for an injury in his ankle. In Toronto he finally did not play his match against Feliciano because of that. If Berrettini is recovered from his injury this should be an "easy" match for him because Londero doesn't feel comfortable on fast courts. 

Karlovic's physical condition is not the best but if he has a good day with his serve he can take the match into a couple of tiebreaks and winning them. 

Like Czech said there is no free money on this bro. Imagine that Berrettini relapses from his ankle injury in the middle of the match and finally loses it or Karlovic serving at his best and winning the tiebreaks..  

[DrO]

@CzechPunteris there a US Open topic?

[MMABetting97]

Thanks for explaining it to me guys. Kinda figures, I have my username "MMABetting" right? lol

[CzechPunter]

@DrO I see that you've managed to locate it on your own .

[teodorppv]

Andy Murray to beat Richard Gasquet at 2.50 with WilliamHill

Andy Murray is Andy Murray one of the best players ever . Yes it is his first game since Australian Open but I still think he is classes above Gasquet who is playing very bad season. I think that is a good odd for giving a shot. Also it is not like Murray did not play 7 months tennis, he had very good run with Lopez in London and I watched most of the matches and I did not see any kind of fitness issues in Murray's game then and I do not see a reason to have one today.

Edited August 12, 2019 by teodorppv

[cialivinci]

@MMABetting97 im gonna bet 500€ on Khabib and Islam makhaev, that for me seems like „ free money“

[MMABetting97]

3 hours ago, cialivinci said:

 

@cialivinci Relax there buddy. The odd's are total shyte. Not worth it trust me.

[CzechPunter]

This thread is for tennis, guys. As for myself, I'm happy with Zverev getting the job done against Kokkinakis and I'm sticking with just the one bet for today.

 

[Arkadiusss8]

Goffin + Ons Jabeur ako 4,51

it's time for David to get second round (in Toronto and Montreal he defeated after tight matches). Last year here he get semi, so this is good signal for me

I like Ons she played varied tennis, for me match is 50/50 so 2,55 for Tunisian looking nice.

[CzechPunter]

Dominic Thiem (-2.5) to beat Richard Gasquet at 1.72 with Bet365

Gasquet was seriously poor against Murray in the previous round and the courts are quite slow, so I think that Thiem isn't going to have a lot of problems handling the Frenchman this time around. He's the much better player of the two at this point in time, but Gasquet's performance last time out is the real clincher for me here. It really was surprisingly bad.

 

[CzechPunter]

Well, Thiem has just withdrawn. 

The bet I like instead is Evgeny Karlovskiy to beat Carlos Gomez-Herrera at 1.88 with Pinnacle. I've already said enough about Karlovskiy in previous threads and I don't really rate Gomez-Herrera too highly. Neither players is great, but Karlovskiy is genuine at the very least.

[darko08]

Juan Ignacio Londero (+5.5 Games) vs Roger Federer at 2.00 with bet365

No matches played for Federer since Wimbledon and that was 1 month ago. Londero's best surface is clay but he at least has played 3 matches on hard with 2 victories (Garín and an injured Berrettini in the first round here). This will be the first match for Federer on hard and we all know that a lot of times he won his matches with just a break in each set.

Hubert Hurkacz to beat Roberto Bautista at 2.80 with 888

Bautista is not convincing in his matches (even he lost in his last match against an injured Monfils) and Hurkacz has exploded this year and is playing real good tennis. Not an easy match for him but I think the value is on Hurkacz.

Daniil Medvedev to beat (2-0) Kyle Edmund at 2.35 with 888

I know Medvedev has played a lot of matches in the last days and that's why I will try the 2-0. The difference between these 2 players now is huge so if Medvedev has the intention of winning this match this will be by the fast way (like the last match between these 2 players: 6-0 and 6-3 for the russian). 

Sam Querrey to beat (+4.5 Games) vs Novak Djokovic at 2.00 with bet365

Another player that has not played any match since Wimbledon. Querrey has played one match here against Herbert (7-6, 7-6). Sam will not get involved in long rallies and that's not good for Novak. If Sam has a good day with his serve this handicap should be covered. He will be in home and this will be the first match on hard for Novak.

[MMABetting97]

@darko08

Aren't you worried about Medvedev cardio or anything? He played a lot of matches in the last few days....he basically had no break, he just flew from Canada to USA and has to play immediately.

[darko08]

9 minutes ago, MMABetting97 said:

@darko08

Aren't you worried about Medvedev cardio or anything? He played a lot of matches in the last few days....he basically had no break, he just flew from Canada to USA and has to play immediately.

Yep, that's why i bet the 2-0. If the match gets hard probably Medvedev will "give up". The point here is that the difference between these 2 is huge now so if Daniil starts well whit some early break and thinks that he can win the match by the fast way he will do. Thats why I think there is value on the 2-0 but not the single victory.

[darko08]

These are my last bets for the whole week because I will be out for a week.

Saisai Zheng to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 2.75 with bet365

These 2 players faced each other just 1 week ago in the Final of the Silicon Valley Classic in San José. Saisai won that match in straight sets (6-3, 7-6) and I don’t know what have changed since then to give Sabalenka a 1.40. Saisai has win her first match here against Kuzmova (6-3, 6-1) while Sabalenka has win against Martic (6-1, 6-4). We can’t take too many conclusions of these matches considering the poor form of the players that they have faced (Kuzmova played her first match on hard and Martic played one but it was a lost in straight sets against Francesca Di Lorenzo and that’s pretty scaring). Sabalenka has been a very irregular player the last months and considering that Saisai won against her in straight sets just 1 week ago I think all the value is with her.

Yulia Putintseva to beat Sloane Stephens at 2.25 with bet365

I will bet for Putintseva another time. Sloane is in a very poor form. She has lost her 2 matches played on hard in straight sets (against Rebecca Peterson in Washington 6-2 and 7-5 and against Bouzkova in Toronto 6-2, 7-5). This will be her first match here while Putintseva has already 1 win here against Ostapenko in a 3 set match. Putintseva dominates the h2h (2-1) and the last two matches played between them were won by Putintseva.

Maybe tomorrow I post something more because I leave Thursday morning, so lets see.

[CzechPunter]

Diego Schwartzman to beat Radu Albot at 1.71 with Pinnacle

A pretty good price imo, the conditions in Cincinnati aren't fast at all and Schwartzman can use that to get a win over an opponent that hasn't pulled that many trees recently. Beating Cilic was a great result, don't get me wrong, but the Croat has been struggling for a while himself and this should be tougher in terms of rallies. It probably isn't going to be too straightforward, but I fancy Diego to just outlast his opponent here.

[aphro]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Diego Schwartzman to beat Radu Albot at 1.71 with Pinnacle

A pretty good price imo, the conditions in Cincinnati aren't fast at all and Schwartzman can use that to get a win over an opponent that hasn't pulled that many trees recently. Beating Cilic was a great result, don't get me wrong, but the Croat has been struggling for a while himself and this should be tougher in terms of rallies. It probably isn't going to be too straightforward, but I fancy Diego to just outlast his opponent here.

Disagree on this, i think that Albot wins

[darko08]

Adrian Mannarino to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.62 with 888

Kukushkin is here as a LL. He won his first match of the qualy against the absolutely out of form Jack Sock but he needed 3 sets. After that he lost in a 3 set match against Rublev. Mannarino has fully convinced me in his first match here, winning against Garín in straight sets (6-4, 6-1). Just 1 week ago Mannarino won against Kukushkin in straight sets (6-4, 6-4) in Toronto.

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.50 with 888

Nothing much to say in this one. I think Struff is a little bit underrated here. Struff convinced me with his victory in the first round against the always dangerous Karlovic (7-5, 7-6) while this will be the first match here for Tsitsipas who lost in the first round in Toronto against Hurkacz.

Guido Pella to beat (+2.5 Games) to beat David Goffin at 1.95 with 888

Pella is in a very good form while Goffin is still far from his best form. In his first match here Goffin won against Fritz in a 3 set match (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) and Pella won against Ruud in straight sets (7-5, 7-6). Just 1 week ago Pella won against Goffin in straight sets in Toronto (6-4, 7-6).

I know that im overbetting but the most importing thing is being in profit and I feel confident so let’s go (and like always said, anybody is forced to follow my bets, just the ones you like). I have to say that I saw Medvedev very exhausted in the 2nd set of his match against Edmund (even he almost lost that) so I was thinking on betting against the Russian but I have no confidence on Paire so if Daniil goes on probably I will bet against him in the next rounds. The other bet I had on my mind is Kecmanovic because Zverev is in a very bad form but I was not expecting a 1.60 for the german.. so finally I will not do. Like I told you, tomorrow morning i leave and i will be out for a week so good luck with your bets!

[CzechPunter]

Pablo Carreno-Busta (+6) to beat Novak Djokovic at 1.72 with Pinnacle

This looks like a rather generous line to me, Djokovic wasn't very convincing against Querrey, just doing enough to allow the American to self-destruct. PCB should have more to offer in rallies and he rarely gives up, so I fancy him to go reasonably close. Given that even 6-2 6-4 is a push, I have to take this.

[darko08]

@CzechPunter I took the +4.5 Games Handicap on Querrey and that match was frustrating for me because Novak did nothing. The first set did not end bad considering my bet but then the 2nd set was absolutely frustrating. 2 BP for Querrey in the first game of Novak on serve that he did not convert and then 2 more that also did not convert. And after that Sam did say bye to the match, very frustrating. 

[CzechPunter]

@darko08 Yep, I saw that second set, really frustrating and I think PCB will cope better. I'm also taking Diego Schwartzman to beat Richard Gasquet at 1.83 with local, I want to play the Argentinian at everything above 1.70. Didn't get to oppose Gasquet today, but I will be opposing him tomorrow.

[Teodore]

Last week I wrote that Will be always value against Światek when she play against top20 Player on odds around 1.5... Today was also and I forget to wrote few words. 

 

Sad.

Edited August 14, 2019 by Teodore

[MMABetting97]

What do you think about Kyrgios - Khachanov? I have Kyrgios as the last pair in my parlay. I was thinking that Kyrgios will be superb on the serve and better on the return, but I dont't know enough about tennis. What are your thoughts?