Tennis Tips - June 10 - June 16

[CzechPunter]

[opole]

there is no topic for this week non french open bets so i put it into that one as it's a qualification match of next weeks tournaments

S'hertogenbosch WTA qualif

Arianne Hartono @8.10 5dimes 4/10

Hartono decent prospect i think, she played college tennis in the US and won the NCAA singles championship in 2018 for Ole Miss. She also graduated in 2018 so now she will turn pro and she looks promosing. 

Another angle is that her opponent Bonaventure played on claycourt on Thursday in Croatia. She finished her match on Thursday 4pm local time so i checked some sites and i think she took the flight from Split to AMsterdam yesterday which made her arrive in Rosmalen in the evening, she probably didn't even have the chance to hit on grass for a training session here. I wouldn't be surprised if she lacks timing and movement after coming from claycourt. Bonaventure is very solid but we all know switching to grass is difficult. I also expect very tough conditions if you're not adapted to grass as it'll be slippery, very wet weather in the Netherlands according to the reports altough it should not rain at all.

[opole]

Hartono leads 3-2 with a break up, then losing four games in a row...classic stuff for WTA standards. Really annoying.

[bobix]

11 hours ago, opole said:

there is no topic for this week non french open bets so i put it into that one as it's a qualification match of next weeks tournaments

S'hertogenbosch WTA qualif

Arianne Hartono @8.10 5dimes 4/10

Hartono decent prospect i think, she played college tennis in the US and won the NCAA singles championship in 2018 for Ole Miss. She also graduated in 2018 so now she will turn pro and she looks promosing. 

Another angle is that her opponent Bonaventure played on claycourt on Thursday in Croatia. She finished her match on Thursday 4pm local time so i checked some sites and i think she took the flight from Split to AMsterdam yesterday which made her arrive in Rosmalen in the evening, she probably didn't even have the chance to hit on grass for a training session here. I wouldn't be surprised if she lacks timing and movement after coming from claycourt. Bonaventure is very solid but we all know switching to grass is difficult. I also expect very tough conditions if you're not adapted to grass as it'll be slippery, very wet weather in the Netherlands according to the reports altough it should not rain at all.

Great call, anyways! I took the set handicap, but I am really sorry for you, this pick really deserved to be a winner...

[KennyDelight]

Tamara Zidansek @1.80 to beat Sara Sorribes-Tormo Bet365

Backing the defending champion here based on the two styles. Zidansek is quick around the court, her positioning is solid and she has the ability to push players around the court from the baseline due to her forehand which is powerful yet controlled more often than not.

She has the ability to slice as seen this week in countering Voegele and Juvan, so I fail to see how Sorribes-Tormo has any advantage over Zidansek.

Sorribes-Tormo's serve is lacking power and is ripe for plunder against Zidansek. Zidansek's serve hasn't been great this week but I don't see how Sorribes-Tormo can take advantage with her lack of power and will most likely resort to her moonball and slice game. With Zidansek's power from the back of the court, this tactic may not come up trumps against an in form clay player who has good defence to to with her attack minded game.

[Smiles Tennis]

Ruse to beat Cepelova - 1.86 Betfair

 

Will type reason when not holding the baby lol

 

EDIT: reasoning. 

Ruse with the better grass record and she just plays more on the surface. Cepelova played just one match on grass last year and lost in the qualies for Wimbledon. Cepelova has lost 7 of her last 9 matches and one of those wins was a retirement. 

Ruse had some decent enough results on grass last year and lost to Rybarikova and pushed Aga hard at Wimbledon before losing 5-7 in the third. Ruse has also reached a few lower level SF and a QF recently, so is playing fairly well and should be confident with a bit of form behind her. 

I think she should be shorter than 1.86 so on it. Now back to baby holding. Good luck guys!

 

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by Tennis Picks

[opole]

WTA Nottingham qualif.

Tara Moore @3.23 Pinnacle 5/10

Moore has nearly playsed 100 matches on grass and Nottingham should be a good place for here to re-gain some momentum after an average 2019 season so far. Moore reached the quarterfinal in Nottingham in 2016 where she beat good names like Vekic and McHale, losing to Saisai Zheng finally. Gatto-Monticone is nearly 32 yrs old and is playing her first (!) grasscourt tournament ever...this is basically her second match on grass in her whole pro career and she's playing since 2003. She won her first round encounter with out of form Chinese player Xu so i wouldn't overrate that. Moore had tough match vs. Martincova who is great on grass and she beat her comfortably with a strong performance. Moore is playing "at home" here as she's from Doncaster which is a town 70 km away from Nottingham. I think this is close to a pick em match, maybe the Brit is even the favorite. Odds +3 are representing great value in my opinion. 

[i1_principe]

Gulbis to beat Auger-Aliassime at 2.50 with Bet365

A-A has no experience at grass courts and will play for the first year in a tournament from the ATP calendar. Gulbis is extremely unstable in his performances but on a good day he can beat everyone. In the last two years he won against  A.Zverev and Del Potro on grass and somehow I do not see him as a big outsider here.

[opole]

2 hours ago, opole said:

WTA Nottingham qualif.

Tara Moore @3.23 Pinnacle 5/10

Moore has nearly playsed 100 matches on grass and Nottingham should be a good place for here to re-gain some momentum after an average 2019 season so far. Moore reached the quarterfinal in Nottingham in 2016 where she beat good names like Vekic and McHale, losing to Saisai Zheng finally. Gatto-Monticone is nearly 32 yrs old and is playing her first (!) grasscourt tournament ever...this is basically her second match on grass in her whole pro career and she's playing since 2003. She won her first round encounter with out of form Chinese player Xu so i wouldn't overrate that. Moore had tough match vs. Martincova who is great on grass and she beat her comfortably with a strong performance. Moore is playing "at home" here as she's from Doncaster which is a town 70 km away from Nottingham. I think this is close to a pick em match, maybe the Brit is even the favorite. Odds +3 are representing great value in my opinion. 

no luck this weekend in tennis...moore 0-3 behind, then won 5 games in a row, leading 5-4 30-30, monticone retires ........

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Bol Final

Sorribes Tormo to beat Zidansek - 2.12 Betfair

Zidansek is the better player but this week her serving has been crap. She was 0-4 down in the final set last time out and luckily Juvan choked and gifted her the match. Anyone else would have probably beat her but Juvan has a habit of always losing third sets.

She's been on the court for a couple of hours longer than Sorribes Tormo who has breezed her last two matches, facing only 3 break points in total from them. 

She's playing well this week and although she doesn't have big weapons, if Zidansek gives plenty of 0-15 or 0-30 moments on her serve like she has done, Tormo can grab enough breaks to take it. 

It will be close, but I would make Sorribes Tormo the slight fave after looking at all the factors, so going with the Spaniard to win here. 

[CzechPunter]

Tatiana Maria to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 2.80 with BetVictor

There could easily be some French Open hangover for Mladenovic here. She was playing the doubles earlier today and then staying behind for Thiem, so not sure how much practice she's going to get ahead of this one. Maria is solid and has already played quite a few decent matches on grass in 2019. Mladenovic is better and has a great H2H lead as well, but the circumstances make this a coin-flip to me.

[four-leaf]

Sara Sorribes Tormo to beat (-1.5 sets) Tamara Zidansek at 3.50 with Betfair

I'm on Sara here, she's yet to drop a set in this Bol edition and has won easily in every match she's played so far and Tamara has had big troubles holding serve this tournament. Could be a great tournament for Sara without dropping a set and I wouldn't want to miss winning something on it.

[KennyDelight]

This Bol final so far has pretty much been about pushing. Most of the shots are mild power into the middle. And now Sorribes-Tormo seem to have changed her service style, when she's hitting the serve now both arms parallel like someone playing volleyball

BTW Nottingham weather is bad for the whole week. Keep that in mind for this week. Only Vekic has anything meaningful to defend and the majority of the field didn't play last year

Edited June 9, 2019 by KennyDelight

[four-leaf]

Parlay at 16.45 with Betfair

Cannon Kingsley to beat Ji Sung Nam at 4.00

Cannon has to catch fire sometime and why not at 18 years old. He's been ranked 10 as a junior this season, currently 30. Ji Sung has never been higher than 293 as a junior 9 years ago and he's nothing special with his 113 ITF ranking and 351 ATP rank.

Ernests Gulbis to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime at 2.35

Ernests could win this, his season hasn't been mutch to brag about so far but he can play on grass where he's beaten some good players over the years. Felix A-A reached the Wimbledon quarterfinal as a junior but he's yet to play a professional match on grass.

Ernesto Escobedo to beat JC Aragone at 1.75

Ernesto hasn't reached the same levels he had previously when he reached top 100 and was knocking on top 50 but he could still be the better player of these two on this surface where he's played many qualifying matches and maindraw matches. JC hasn't played many matches on grass, only three in Newport last season when he successfully qualified after beating Evan King in 2 and Mattias Bachinger in 3. He lost to Marcel Granollers in 2. Anyway this looks like a match Ernesto could win.

[darko08]

Magdalena Rybarikova to win WTA Nottingham at 10.00 with 888

Taking a look at the players who will play this tournament I decided to try this bet. At first, I have to say that grass is the surface where Rybarikova feels more comfortable. In 2006 she reached the junior Final in Wimbledon. In 2017 she reached the Semifinals in Wimbledon (her best result in a GS), beating there Niculescu, Karolina Pliskova, Tsurenko, Martic and Coco Vandeweghe, losing finally against the winner of the tournament, Muguruza.

The most favorite players are: Vekic (7.00), Caroline Garcia (8.00), Mladenovic (9.00), Sakkari (10.00), Tomljanovic (11.00) and Yastremska (11.00). Rybarikova is the only player from all of them that has played a grass tournament, beating there Liang En-shuo, Kalinskaya, Heather Watson and Tatjana Maria, losing the Final against Riske in a 3 set match. Vekic reached the Semifinals here the last year but she has not played any match on grass yet and I see Rybarikova with more options. Rybarikova has a W/L record on this surface of 57-28 (better than any of these player, by far). Sakkari and Garcia have no more than 20 matches played on this surface. Mladenovic can be dangerous considering her style, but she can have an early loss considering her win in RG. Tomljanovic and Yastremska also have the conditions to play well here (aggressive players with a decent serve) but they don’t have too many matches played on this surface and both come here without preparation.

I also put some little money on Alison Riske to win Hertogenbosch at 15.00

Edited June 10, 2019 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Mladenovic-Maria is off and I don't exactly fancy backing Frech against Kristina.

Jason Kubler to beat Tatsuma Ito at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Kubler looked alright last week and I fancy him to do some damage this week again if his fitness holds up. Certainly the more talented guys of the two, sweet strokes and everything. On top of that, Ito might be going through some sort of a rough patch, having to retire against Kravchuk before losing against Tatlot in straight sets in the French Open.

 

[four-leaf]

Nicola Mektic/Franko Skugor to beat Nick Kyrgios/Matt Reid at 1.52 with Betfair

I'm going for Nicola and Franko in ATP Stuttgart because they have reached the Wimbledon semis once and Franko alone did it last season again but with Dom Inglot. Nick and Matt both looked terrible last week in Surbiton in their first round losses of the doubles tournament.

[darko08]

Alison Riske to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.60 with 888

Muchova only has played 14 matches on this surface in her career while Riske has a W/L record of 68-30 in her career. Muchova has not played any match on grass yet and the last year she had a 3-3 record on grass. Alison Riske come here after winning an ITF tournament played on grass (Great Britain) so she will be prepared for this one. She won there against Li, Greet Minnen, Katy Dunne, Caty McNally and Rybarikova. 

[darko08]

Tiafoe (vs J.Sousa) + Fucsovics (vs Munar) + Taylor Fritz (vs Rodionov) + Riske (vs Muchova) + Rybarikova (vs Astra Sharma) at 4.79 with 888

Funny parlay with players who should win their matches for different reasons (they feel more comfortable on grass than their opponents, better preparation, state of form, etc).

[darko08]

Magdalena Rybarikova to beat (-1,5 Sets) Astra Sharma at 1.82 with 888

Last bet for me for today and tomorrow. I have explained the reasons on my pick of Rybarikova to win the tournament. Her style suits with this surface, she has a nice W/L record (57-28) on this surface, she's better player and she has preparation (an ITF grass tournament played on Great Britain where she did Final). Astra Sharma has no matches played on this surface so considering all the factors this should be an easy match for Rybarikova.

[four-leaf]

35 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Tiafoe (vs J.Sousa) + Fucsovics (vs Munar) + Taylor Fritz (vs Rodionov) + Riske (vs Muchova) + Rybarikova (vs Astra Sharma) at 4.79 with 888

Funny parlay with players who should win their matches for different reasons (they feel more comfortable on grass than their opponents, better preparation, state of form, etc).

I don't like funny parlays, be serious instead...

[four-leaf]

Harriet Dart to beat Vera Lapko at 1.88 with Betfair

I get a feeling Harriet shouldn't be at this price. Vera is very suspect nowadays and Harriet owns homecourt advantage at a surface she's comfortable on.

[darko08]

15 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I don't like funny parlays, be serious instead...

? I will call this serious parlay instead of funny parlay. I know this kind of parlays usually are lost. I rarely do parlays with more than 3-4 bets but let's see, i have confidence in this one. 

[CzechPunter]

Thiemo De Bakker (+4.5) to beat Adrian Mannarino at 1.73 with Unibet

While it probably isn't a good idea to be backing such an out-of-form player - just look at Zverev's performance against Tsonga today - I think that the line is a game or so high here for several reasons. First, Thiemo De Bakker has always had a good serve and that should certainly play a role on grass. Second, it's his home tournament of sorts and he's had some reasonable results here some years back. Third, he has a 2-0 record (5-0 in terms of sets) against Mannarino despite always being the worse player of the two on paper. Fourth, Mannarino has had his fair share of problems so far in this season as well. Take all this together and I think that it isn't hard to make a case for the underdog here - and I'm going to go with the games handicap.

[opole]

Matteo Berrettini 2.910 Pinnacle 4/10

So we do trust Kyrgios again only because it's grass court tennis now? No, man, i do not trust him for 1% even if it's grass in Australia in front of his house. Kyrgios is a joke and i really love to fade him right now as he's looking like a mental nutcase who is also struggling with physical issues left and right. Berrettini is a guy who is always reliable as he is delivering solid performances and he has the tools to play well on grass. His serve is big and he has crushing groundstrokes. At some point Kyrgios might quit again. If not it's still close matchup.

Shelby Rogers -1.5 games 2.03 Dafabet 4/10

Rogers looked incredible good recently considering the fact she is coming back from long injury layoff. She won sets vs. Suarez Navarro, Garcia and Ostapenko during her first comeback trail on clay and now she's playing on grass where she had some solid success in the past (R3 in Wimbledon, should have beaten Kerber there but lost close match in the third). On the other hand Sorribes Tormo finished her match vs. Zidansek in Bol late Sunday evening. She caught a flight from Split to the UK on Monday but there is no direct flight so she had at least one stop and might arrived in Nottingham late in the evening, a couple of hours ago. I doubt she could hit on grass as weather was really bad in Nottingham. The whole week shows tough weather conditions and it'll be tough for her to get any match practice on grass before she has to play the match while Rogers already had a few hitting sessions on the outdoor grass. I like Rogers here. 

Edited June 10, 2019 by opole

[four-leaf]

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat David Goffin at 3.20 with Betfair

Alejandro really should fancy his chances here. David is still far from his best and grass has never been his best surface. I can see him losing to Alejandro.

[four-leaf]

Francisco Cerundolo to beat Facundo Mena at 2.05 with Betfair

Francisco is a player I belive is upcoming, he looks like he's rising, current ATP rank 542 which is his career high since June 10 and ITF rank 9 also since June 10 and has won 6 clay ITF titles since last season and 4 of them this season. He is one of the most improving young players from Argentina, he's 20 years old and his 4 ITF titles this season makes him the third most successfull ITF player. He just started to play on hardcourt last week in Little Rock where he did it quite well. First he beat hardcourt player Michael Redlicki in 3 sets and second he goes out in a tight 3 set match losing to Christopher Eubanks after winning first set. Mena is 26 years old and has won 8 clay ITF titles in his career, he is higher ranked and has more experience on hardcourt but he's far from a good hardcourt player. Last week he played also in Little Rock and beat the wildcard Aleksandar Kovacevic in straights and lost to Mitchell Krueger 6-3 6-2. Judging by the way both played last week and their respective ITF ranking I'd say Francisco should be the favourite here but oddsmakers have probably been looking at their ATP rankings and experience on hardcourt only.

Francisco to win this is!

[CzechPunter]

Just some info - they've already started to move the matches in Nottingham indoors, just for the men now, but I reckon the same could happen to the main WTA event if the weather stays like it should. Keep that in mind.

[CzechPunter]

I sure as hell don't know which one of the underdogs deserves a shot at Nottingham though, any clues?

Margarita Gasparyan to beat Greetje Minnen at 1.95 with BetVictor

I really liked the comeback against Kuzmova that Gasparyan got in yesterday, while Minnen has usually struggled with somewhat better players recently. The one-handed backhand might also cause her some problems due to how inexperienced she is (although that is a bit of a speculation).

[darko08]

On 6/10/2019 at 10:22 AM, darko08 said:

Tiafoe (vs J.Sousa) + Fucsovics (vs Munar) + Taylor Fritz (vs Rodionov) + Riske (vs Muchova) + Rybarikova (vs Astra Sharma) at 4.79 with 888

Funny parlay with players who should win their matches for different reasons (they feel more comfortable on grass than their opponents, better preparation, state of form, etc).

Only one match pending (Rybarikova-Sharma) but will be this match played someday...¿? ? @CzechPunter what will happen with this match if tomorrow also rains? Im really thinking to cash out the parlay at almost 4.00 (Rybarikova was paid at 1.30 and now has dropped to 1.25)

Edited June 11, 2019 by darko08