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Tennis Tips - June 10 - June 16

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I like Vikhlyantseva over Bertens for the big upset today. It's a longshot yes, but I'm giving it a try. She's played great, looking nearly flawless so far. Granted vs inferior opponents but she's gained confidence. Let's face it, there's a reason why she's such a big underdog. 

Vikhlyantseva for the win! +230

To win a set -115 is a nice play too IMO

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53 minutes ago, Blackroses said:

Doesn't Martin seem like the kind of guy that can't handle the pressure of holding serve? His record vs big servers is atrocious. I really believe he has trouble with the pressure of holding and his return is nothing fantastic where I think he has a shot vs Raonic. 

I'm just throwing it out there for discussion since I'm not betting this match yet.

Well, this is more based in the poor state of form of Raonic than Fucsovics qualities. If Raonic plays well there will be no match but it seems very difficult considering his actual form.

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Maria Sakkari to beat (2-0) Jennifer Brady at 2.35 with 888

This will be the last bet for me today. Nothing much to say. The odds for the win looks a little bit short so I'm gonna risk with 2-0. Sakkari is one of the most in form players of the WTA from the last months. She has win here against Heather Watson and Jorovic (both in straight sets). Brady won yesterday against Sara Sorribes in a match that took her 3:12 hours so she will be tired for this one. 

Edited by darko08

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16 hours ago, Torque said:

Fresh from venting about serving, there's something I like tomorrow.

Dustin Brown to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 2.75 Bet365

Brown delivered as an underdog against Sascha in the last round, so I don't see why he can't deliver as a lesser underdog in this one. Auger-Aliassime is a big talent and he has a couple of decent wins behind him here, albeit against the inconsistent Gulbis and the declining Simon, but he has very little experience on grass and I wonder if he will be able to deal with what Brown will throw at him on this surface. The German has good pedigree at this tournament and has claimed some scalps down the years, and his serve and volley style could see Auger-Aliassime out of points before they've even started. Brown is on a nice run having come through the qualifiers and I think his experience and grass-court nous will trump the youthful talent of Auger-Aliassime and at the price I'm happy to pay to see if I'm right.

Really should have had a winner there. Brown served for it, had a match point but not to be. On to whatever's next :ok

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Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Milos Raonic at 2.89 with Marathonbet

I'm almost sure this match will be decided by minor details so the odds looks totally wrong to me. Felix is a pure claycourter but his conditions make him a dangerous player also on grass (I'm sure he will surprise us this season on grass). Considering that he's payed at almost 3.00 i take him.

Jordan Thompson to beat Richard Gasquet at 2.40 with William Hill

I will go with Jordan again. Gasquet has missed 3 months for an injury and he's still not at his best. Jordan is playing well and I think he can take this.

No more bets for the WTA for me (Sakkari losing in straight sets after she was winning 5-3 the first set, losing 4 consecutive games and Rybarikova retiring for an illness but not before playing a disastrous set to make my bet lost is just too much to me)

I still have Alison Riske to win the Libema Open at 15.00. It will be hard especially with Bertens alive but i think she can win it considering how good she can play on this surface (she's actually in a 8 winning streak on this surface so lets see).

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Elena Rybakina to beat Kiki Bertens @ 4.50 Betfair Sportsbook

I'm not going mad with my stakes as Rybakina should certainly be the underdog here, but I'm not sure she should be this big an underdog. The youngster has come all the way through qualifying to reach the last four and she's done it without so much as dropping a set. She's beaten Stefkova, McHale, Lepchenko, Van Uytvanck and Flipkens so it's not as though she been getting the better of players who can't play on grass. Bertens meanwhile started her campaign well against former doubles partner Larsson but was then very sloppy against Rus before easing past Vikhlyantseva in a match that might have been a fair bit closer if Vikhlyantseva had been able to save any of just three break points faced. In short, Rybakina has plenty of upside and seems to be a good grass court player, and although Bertens was very good behind her serve in the last round a repeat of her performance against Rus could lead to a much more competitive match than the prices suggest.

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9 hours ago, Torque said:

Elena Rybakina to beat Kiki Bertens @ 4.50 Betfair Sportsbook

I'm not going mad with my stakes as Rybakina should certainly be the underdog here, but I'm not sure she should be this big an underdog. The youngster has come all the way through qualifying to reach the last four and she's done it without so much as dropping a set. She's beaten Stefkova, McHale, Lepchenko, Van Uytvanck and Flipkens so it's not as though she been getting the better of players who can't play on grass. Bertens meanwhile started her campaign well against former doubles partner Larsson but was then very sloppy against Rus before easing past Vikhlyantseva in a match that might have been a fair bit closer if Vikhlyantseva had been able to save any of just three break points faced. In short, Rybakina has plenty of upside and seems to be a good grass court player, and although Bertens was very good behind her serve in the last round a repeat of her performance against Rus could lead to a much more competitive match than the prices suggest.

I took her at 2.15 against Flipkens but Kiki should be too much for her I think.. I expect Kiki in 2 sets but this is the WTA where anything can happen 😅

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58 minutes ago, darko08 said:

I took her at 2.15 against Flipkens but Kiki should be too much for her I think.. I expect Kiki in 2 sets but this is the WTA where anything can happen 😅

Can happen anything in ATP also... Like when Djokovic lost to Kohlschreiber in IW or Miami or when Roger Federer lost to Filipo Volandri in Rome. Many surprises both in ATP and WTA. But writing anything can happen because it's WTA is like saying nothing can happen in any other sport except that the favourite always wins which is not true. So it would be more correct to write it's sports and anything can happen.

And I think you're right that Kiki should have to mutch today...

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Can happen anything in ATP also... Like when Djokovic lost to Kohlschreiber in IW or Miami or when Roger Federer lost to Filipo Volandri in Rome. Many surprises both in ATP and WTA. But writing anything can happen because it's WTA is like saying nothing can happen in any other sport except that the favourite always wins which is not true. So it would be more correct to write it's sports and anything can happen.

And I think you're right that Kiki should have to mutch today...

 

WTA is more unpredictable than the ATP and that is a fact. For example, do you know that we have 10 different woman players that have won RG in the last 12 years? We only have 3 male players that have won RG in the last 12 years. During this RG Halep was paid very similar than Nadal to win RG (that is ridicolous considering that Halep has won only 1 GS and Nadal has 18 including 12 RG..). Everytime a GS is coming we all know that the men's title will be disputed by 3 or 4 players but the women's title has become a lottery. Probably this will change when some players take a step but now this is the situation. Obviously im not saying that there are no suprising results in the ATP im just saying that the WTA is more unpredictable than the ATP.

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Félix Auger-Aliassime to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.75 with bet365

I took Félix in the last round but Raonic retired because he was not at his best physically. Now we have Félix priced almost at 3.00 again so I think the value is on him. Both players have not too many matches on this surface but their conditions make them very dangerous players here (aggressive players with good serve). I think the match will be decided by minor details so i prefer the better priced player.

Alison Riske to beat Kiki Bertens at 3.06 with Marathonbet 

Personally i have Riske to win this tournament at 15.00 but i post this one anyway because i think the value is on the american. Kiki is an excelent player but we all know that grass is not her best surface (she has a W/L record of 15-15). She has win against Johanna Larsson (W/L record on grass of 7-19), Arantxa Rus (13-20), Vikhlyantseva (11-10) and Rybakina (5-1) so she had an easy way (Vikhlyantseva and Rybakina have the conditions to play really well on grass but not the experience). Now she will face a player that had more wins on grass than all these players together (Riske W/L record of 72-30 on grass). Riske is on a 9 winning streak and she has win here against Muchova, Hercog, Alexandrova and Kudermetova.

I have to say that Riske has a terrible record in Finals (1-6).

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13 hours ago, darko08 said:
 

WTA is more unpredictable than the ATP and that is a fact. For example, do you know that we have 10 different woman players that have won RG in the last 12 years? We only have 3 male players that have won RG in the last 12 years. During this RG Halep was paid very similar than Nadal to win RG (that is ridicolous considering that Halep has won only 1 GS and Nadal has 18 including 12 RG..). Everytime a GS is coming we all know that the men's title will be disputed by 3 or 4 players but the women's title has become a lottery. Probably this will change when some players take a step but now this is the situation. Obviously im not saying that there are no suprising results in the ATP im just saying that the WTA is more unpredictable than the ATP.

Taking GS as an example is not fair.. If you look at smaller tournaments you can see there's about as mutch surprises in WTA and ATP.

Anyways Elias Ymer to beat Corentin Moutet at 2.00 with Betfair

I always like Elias in challenger finals. His record is quite awsome in such finals and I'm surprised to see Elias as the underdog here although a small one but he should be the favourite at around 1.70 instead of Corentin at 1.70. Elias is by far one of the best clay challenger players outthere for years now.

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Fanny Stollar to beat Jil Belen Teichman at 2.68 with Unibet

Jil is not only lost on grass with 0 competitive matches on the surface, she's lost in her game completely right now. I went against her when she met A-K Schmiedlova lately in WTA Bol on clay and A-K Schmiedlova dominated that match completely when she downed Jil in straight sets. What I saw from Jil back then was that she hit the ball very bad most of the time, either out/wide or in to the net and A-KS was allowed to hit winners from all kinds of angles. Fanny at least has a few matches on grass while Jil does not and judging by the way Jil's been playing lately this looks like a very good bet.

Edit: Fanny also at 2.80 with Betsson

Edited by four-leaf

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3 hours ago, aphro said:

I've decided to take away the liability and placed a bet on Gasquet at 7 with betfair.

No come on :unsure why? Jordan should save that breakpoint he's facing after the rain delay. Very likely. I think he serves it out in second set to a 7-5 6-3 win. Even though I don't support this good luck anyway!

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Just now, four-leaf said:

No come on :unsure why? Jordan should save that breakpoint he's facing after the rain delay. Very likely. I think he serves it out in second set to a 7-5 6-3 win. Even though I don't support this good luck anyway!

I suppose that it's the matter of psychology - i've doubled my unit recently and don't want to lose too much in case it goes wrong. 

But it's temporary. "Insurance" took only 10% of expected profit.

 

8 hours ago, darko08 said:

Félix Auger-Aliassime to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.75 with bet365

I took Félix in the last round but Raonic retired because he was not at his best physically. Now we have Félix priced almost at 3.00 again so I think the value is on him. Both players have not too many matches on this surface but their conditions make them very dangerous players here (aggressive players with good serve). I think the match will be decided by minor details so i prefer the better priced player.

Alison Riske to beat Kiki Bertens at 3.06 with Marathonbet 

Personally i have Riske to win this tournament at 15.00 but i post this one anyway because i think the value is on the american. Kiki is an excelent player but we all know that grass is not her best surface (she has a W/L record of 15-15). She has win against Johanna Larsson (W/L record on grass of 7-19), Arantxa Rus (13-20), Vikhlyantseva (11-10) and Rybakina (5-1) so she had an easy way (Vikhlyantseva and Rybakina have the conditions to play really well on grass but not the experience). Now she will face a player that had more wins on grass than all these players together (Riske W/L record of 72-30 on grass). Riske is on a 9 winning streak and she has win here against Muchova, Hercog, Alexandrova and Kudermetova.

I have to say that Riske has a terrible record in Finals (1-6).

I have my value radat signal now to bet on Auger-Aliassime so i'm with you.

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Berrettini plays great tennis this week and beat much better players than A-A. The Canadian was lucky with the draw and the fact that Raonic gave up the semi-finals. I really find it hard to see A-A as the winner here, but good luck with your bets for this match 😉.

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14 minutes ago, i1_principe said:

Berrettini plays great tennis this week and beat much better players than A-A. The Canadian was lucky with the draw and the fact that Raonic gave up the semi-finals. I really find it hard to see A-A as the winner here, but good luck with your bets for this match 😉.

Thanks mate. I know Berrettini is playing really well but giving him a 1.45 is absolutely exaggerated. This match can be decided by TB's considering how good are serving both players (Felix served 30 Aces against Brown and 15 against Simon in 2 sets). 

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