Serie A 2017/18 Ante-Post Chat

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the ante-post odds for the 2017/18 Serie A season. Let's get some chat going! Does anybody fancy Roma to improve on last season and de-throne Juventus? Napoli are attractive at 6.00. Can the money at AC Milan see them challenge for the Scudetto?

@TastesLikeTuna, @discipline, @Icongene, @betcatalog, @Pipoca, @sajtion, @Vcg2007, @chris666, @WinningAdvice, @yoju82, @DrBetter, @KingSoccertips, @CloughandTaylor, @Punki85, @DW_United, @KikoCy, @vasilli07. @Simeon Borisof, @Simeone, @fat, @HastGill1, @clubgowi, @MPLouis, @Kumanovac, @AF13, @Jase82, @azzurini1976, and @TotoSchillaci, you all contributed to some quality Serie A discussion last season. What are your thoughts on these odds?

[Mindfulness]

I've decided to cover this league once again in 2017-2018 after a year long hiatus. Following 2 soccer leagues in depth is probably the optimum for me personally, anything beyond that is too much as you need to try and watch games in full to get best info.

I watch games live when possible but it would be great if anyone's got any links to sites where you can watch back previous Serie A games or at worst highlights. It's a real pain when you wanna watch 2 or 3 games and they're all on at the same time.

[Mindfulness]

@StevieDay1983 It's early doors but I do not fancy Roma to win the scudetto this year, although a lot will depend on the transfer window. Coach Luciano Spalletti has left for Inter while Roma have replaced him with Eusebio Di Francesco. Di Francesco worked wonders at Sassuolo and he will fit Roma perfectly in terms of their style of play. The problem in Italy is always the level of expectation from the fans, especially at the big clubs. If Di Francesco doesn't hit the ground running then the pressure will soon build.

For me he is a really good coach but at Sassuolo there wasn't much pressure or expectation as he turned a small time Serie B club into an established Serie A force. At Roma he will be expected to challenge for scudetto but that will be very difficult if they can't hold on to Rudiger, Nainggolan, Salah and co. Di Francesco is the right appointment for Roma but if things don't go well in the short term he will probably get the blame and then they will shoot themselves in the foot by sacking him.

Expect the Milan clubs to do better this year; Inter have a good coach in Spalletti and squad is already fairly strong whilst Milan are strengthening with some early aquisitions. Again, the biggest challenge they face is the pressure of expectation and self inflicted wounds.

For me Napoli is the biggest challenger to Juventus. Maurizio Sarri's team plays the best football in the division if not the world right now but can they be pragmatic enough and translate that into a league winning campaign? As good as they are to watch they do not have the strength in depth of Juventus squad wise. If Napoli don't sustain too many injuries they can be serious challengers for scudetto but competition overstretch could derail them.

Will post more in the comming weeks all being well. In the meantime congrats to Benevento who will be playing in Serie A for the first time in their history.

 

 

Edited June 16, 2017 by Mindfulness

[StevieDay1983]

18 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

@StevieDay1983 It's early doors but I do not fancy Roma to win the scudetto this year, although a lot will depend on the transfer window. Coach Luciano Spalletti has left for Inter while Roma have replaced him with Eusebio Di Francesco. Di Francesco worked wonders at Sassuolo and he will fit Roma perfectly in terms of their style of play. The problem in Italy is always the level of expectation from the fans, especially at the big clubs. If Di Francesco doesn't hit the ground running then the pressure will soon build.

For me he is a really good coach but at Sassuolo there wasn't much pressure or expectation as he turned a small time Serie B club into an established Serie A force. At Roma he will be expected to challenge for scudetto but that will be very difficult if they can't hold on to Rudiger, Nainggolan, Salah and co. Di Francesco is the right appointment for Roma but if things don't go well in the short term he will probably get the blame and then they will shoot themselves in the foot by sacking him.

Expect the Milan clubs to do better this year; Inter have a good coach in Spalletti and squad is already fairly strong whilst Milan are strengthening with some early aquisitions. Again, the biggest challenge they face is the pressure of expectation and self inflicted wounds.

For me Napoli is the biggest challenger to Juventus. Maurizio Sarri's team plays the best football in the division if not the world right now but can they be pragmatic enough and translate that into a league winning campaign? As good as they are to watch they do not have the strength in depth of Juventus squad wise. If Napoli don't sustain too many injuries they can be serious challengers for scudetto but competition overstretch could derail them.

Will post more in the comming weeks all being well. In the meantime congrats to Benevento who will be playing in Serie A for the first time in their history.

 

 

That's great news for Benevento. They were the first Italian club team I managed on Football Manager. They were way down back then. We are talking about a decade ago now.

My initial hopes for AC Milan to progress have been hampered by Donnarumma stating he wants to leave! It will be interesting to see where he ends up. Barcelona maybe? Or are they under another transfer ban? If I was Pep, I'd be on the ringer right now!

[Mindfulness]

13 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

That's great news for Benevento. They were the first Italian club team I managed on Football Manager. They were way down back then. We are talking about a decade ago now.

My initial hopes for AC Milan to progress have been hampered by Donnarumma stating he wants to leave! It will be interesting to see where he ends up. Barcelona maybe? Or are they under another transfer ban? If I was Pep, I'd be on the ringer right now!

Donnarumma's done a runner 

To be honest I don't think it will affect Milan's aspirations too much in the short term, it's just a blow to loose such a talented player for the long term as he will keep improving with age. All being well he will go on to be one of the worlds best keepers if not the best eventually.

Another thing I forgot to mention with regards to Roma is their keeper situation. Szczesny had a great season for them but his performances have gone under the radar compared to the likes of Donnarumma. Roma would have conceeded way more goals if it wasn't for his good work last year. Juventus and Inter are reportedly in for him so the Giallorossi will find it hard to retain his services. Szczesny is definately one of the unsung heros in Serie A right now.

[StevieDay1983]

Yes, I think AC Milan will play it hard ball with Donnarumma. If they play their cards right then I think someone could be willing to pay £50 million upwards for him. You can build a cracking spine of a squad with that money if you move shrewdly. I think AC Milan will definitely be stronger overall without Donnarumma. Bonus if they can keep him but it's not the end of the world if he leaves.

[amygdalate]

Best value is Napoli @ 6

[StevieDay1983]

15 hours ago, amygdalate said:

Best value is Napoli @ 6

I'm interested to see what business Sarri does in the summer. The club obviously needs to improve to catch up with Juventus and Roma but not much tinkering is needed. Keeping hold of their big names is key though. Can they keep the likes of Marek Hamsik, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Dries Mertens? If so, and if they can add to that squad then they stand every chance to making a push for their first Scudetto since 1990.

[amygdalate]

Actually I don't think Sarri will ever win something. I just stated my opinion from a punter wiew.It's a good value bet.

[Mindfulness]

http://www.football-italia.net/105962/report-cassano-retire

http://www.football-italia.net/105967/cassano-‘i’m-not-retiring’

http://www.football-italia.net/105968/cassano’s-top-five-meltdowns

[Mindfulness]

http://www.football-italia.net/106241/breaking-cassano-retires-again

http://www.football-italia.net/106242/setti-‘astonished-cassano’

 

[StevieDay1983]

On 24/07/2017 at 7:40 PM, Mindfulness said:

http://www.football-italia.net/106241/breaking-cassano-retires-again

http://www.football-italia.net/106242/setti-‘astonished-cassano’

 

What is he doing? The guy definitely has a screw loose. It's a shame. He could have had such a better career as well if he was a bit more steady up top!

Loving the transfer activity of AC Milan. Huge statements of intent. Especially Bonucci. Is it also showing that Juventus are now past their peak of powers? This will be a big season for the Old Lady.

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

What is he doing? The guy definitely has a screw loose. It's a shame. He could have had such a better career as well if he was a bit more steady up top!

Loving the transfer activity of AC Milan. Huge statements of intent. Especially Bonucci. Is it also showing that Juventus are now past their peak of powers? This will be a big season for the Old Lady.

Cassano had a pretty good career overall but I know what you mean, he was a big talent and probably should have played for the big clubs more often.

Juventus are still the main force in the division, the loss of Bonucci is a harsh blow but they have made a lot of good signings elsewhere. Whatever people say about Juventus you have to admire their recruitment drive, never stagnating and always bringing in fresh talent / bright prospects for the future.

I'm thinking about backing Napoli in some way for ante-post but odds are not spectacular at present while Juventus continue to look strong. There's too much up in the air with transfer dealings right now so I will have to wait for further developments.

Bonucci is a very useful 'specialist' player but why did Milan of all clubs sign him when they've got Romagnoli??? If you're going to keep Romagnoli then Bonucci would be the last player you would want to sign. That aside, Milan are back in the hunt for UCL place this campaign, expectations are high and competition is fierce.

[sajtion]

ac milan were sold to chinese business and they have invested in new players. they got rid half the squad from last season. they have signed massive defensive player in bonucci and he will make them better at the back. i really think lazio will challenge for the title. inzaghi has vast footballing experience and had a positive impact at lazio last season. if team improves even a little bit over last season they will be up there and at 50/1 to win italian league that's great price

[Mindfulness]

Serie A – Top 10 finish 2017/2018

Sampdoria @ 4.5 (Paddy Power)

Paddy Power is really struggling to price up top 10 market this season with a bizarre price range for Serie A mid-table teams.

Fiorentina have lost several key players over the summer and may continue to bleed. PP has them @ 1.1 for top 10 market and when you compare this to Sampdoria’s 4.5 it’s simply ridiculous.

Same for Sassuolo, they have lost a couple of important players and their coach. They’re still a decent mid-table outfit in my view but PP has them priced @ 1.67 for top 10 market. Again, completely ridiculous when you compare it to Sampdoria’s price as they finished just 1pt behind Sassuolo last season in 11^th place!!!

Genoa and Udinese are also priced shorter than Sampdoria and I don’t think this reflects the reality on the ground as things stand.

Sampdoria’s transfer window is also proving harsh with a number of important players being sold but the core of their squad is still strong and they will continue to bring in fresh talent under the stewardship of coach Marco Giampaolo. Generally speaking they face less disruption than some of their peers and cohesion throughout the club looks strong at present.

Realistically I think we will have 6 or 7 teams fighting it out over the remaining 3 or 4 top 10 places in Serie A this season. Sampdoria have been priced as the outsiders in this battle but I do not believe this is accurate.

Market is immature and I believe Samp should be valued around 3.0 for top 10 finish so 4.5 is clear value bet. Obviously there is still a lot to be decided in the transfer window but I do not see the valuations in this market lasting for long.

Got to take the opportunities when you see them.

[sajtion]

call me crazy but i think udinese is going to have terrific season. does anyone know odds for them finishing in top 5 or top 10

[Mindfulness]

5 hours ago, sajtion said:

call me crazy but i think udinese is going to have terrific season. does anyone know odds for them finishing in top 5 or top 10

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/top-6-finish

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/top-10-finish

I wont call you crazy but Udinese top 5 finish is certainly a radical play - I cannot really assess their price for top 6 finish, for me it's beyond the pale.

I think their price (3.5) for top 10 finish is fair and doesn't really stand out, but this is just one person's opinion.

Pay attention to what happens with Jakub Jankto this window, if he stays at Udinese it will be good for their ambitions.

[Mindfulness]

Serie A - Winner 2017/2018

Inter Milan @ 12.5 (Betfair Exchange)

I'm going to back Inter here with a view to cashing out / laying off at some point during the season, hopefully early on, depends on the market.

For me I think Inter are the only team that offer any clear value in Serie A winners market this year. Juve @ 1.73 looks accurate whilst Napoli have shortened and now look less appealing. AC Milan price also looks accurate @ 7.5 and I would say a fair valuation of Inter would be around this mark. AC have spent the big bucks but they should have UEL schedule to contend with this year and that will hamper their domestic efforts. Inter are not in European competition and can concentrate their efforts solely on the league this year.

I like the fact that Inter have hired Spalletti as coach, for me he is one of top 3 managers in the division along with Allegri and Sarri. Spalletti doesn't care for pre-madonnas or big time charlies, he will take Inter by the scruff of the neck to improve their mentality and consistency.

It's true that Inter have been quiet in the window so far but perhaps they will add LB Dalbert soon who I think would be a great addition to the team. The signings of Skriniar, Vecino and Valero may not be box office but they all point to a jigsaw being completed using the correct pieces. There's still a way to go in the transfer window and if Inter can keep Perisic I think they will be a strong side this year, a strong side which has the advantage of an easier schedule compared to its competitors.

Juventus are still the team to beat imo, they've had a rough ride these last couple of months but they will not relinquish their crown easily. Serie A winners market has been priced well in my view, Napoli may still be a bit long but surely margin of value is thin now. Inter are quietly progressing away from the limelight and I feel their current price of 12.5 does not reflect their actual strength. 7.0 - 8.0 would probably be more accurate as things stand imo.

Inter are currently available as big as 15.0 or even 17.0 in some places but make sure you have the option to cash out or lay off at some point as that's what I have in mind for this particular play.

An away trip to Roma aside, the fixture machine has been fairly kind to Inter for the opening 7 rounds, it will be interesting to see how they get on.

 

 

[HastGill1]

I'm going to have a play on Napoli @ 2/1 (without Juventus). Juve will most likely win the league, Bonucci transfer is bizarre but they have massive strength in depth even with him leaving Chiellini/Rugani/Barzagli/Benatia is better than anyone else in the league can offer. Add Bernardeschi going forward and no-one is going to catch them..

Roma will challenge and fall short as usual, lost 3 key players who haven't been replaced, heavily reliant on Dzeko to score 25-30 to keep them in the hunt.

Napoli score goals for fun and look a good price for second to me, no losses of any significance and if they can tighten up a bit at the back they won't be far off. They only lost 1 game after November last season and they will be as strong away as at home, tons of pace and one of the best teams to watch in Europe.

[Mindfulness]

On 08/08/2017 at 2:13 PM, Mindfulness said:

Serie A - Winner 2017/2018

Inter Milan @ 12.5 (Betfair Exchange)

Inter have drifted to 16.5 on Betfair Exchange so I've increased my original stake by 50% and got behind it. No material reason why they should be drifting, value is being added.