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About azzurini1976

  • Birthday 02/13/1976

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  1. Telles, Medel and Kondogbia out for Inter due to bans in last match. It should be interesting to see differentiated Inter side against Sampdoria. Already some ideas for the weekend, but lot will depend on CL and EL matches that will be played, but really like the "over" odds in Frosinone - Lazio game as both teams will not settle for a draw and for sure with both coaches prefering the 4-3-3 formation + again missings in Lazio back line this is added value for the bet. Also Empoli - Frosinone again showed that Frosinone can play open football but are also vulnerable in defence. Empoli should have scored at least two more.
  2. It is a crime that Serie B section is abandoned. Will put few words in later in the week.
  3. Re: Serie B Eurobet > April 10th - 14th Frosinone - Pescara Pescara +0.25 (AH-FT) @1.93 5/10 SBOBET For my taste, odds are set wrongly as maximum of 0 AH should be given for Pescara on these odds. Frosinone will miss some crucial players in this game - 4 important ones and three of them did play in last match, while Pescara can live without one defender that I rate as important. Also I noticed that despite Frosinone is in excellent position on the table, is slowly but surely loosing grip and their form is in down spiral. Sure, they have great home record, but that is the only thing that speaks in their favour. I reckon that Pescara will not do the same stupidity as in last match, when they should really beat Brescia and they are more than able to pick up at least a point from this tie. Brescia - Bologna F.C. Bologna F.C. 0 (AH-FT) @ 1.86 5/10 Dafabet One simple reason for this bet, well there are more, but I like the positional spot that teams are currently in. Brescia needs a win and for that reason they will need to attack and that is situation that Bologna and their coach loves to play in. They simply can’t play against methodical and slow paced teams but will enjoy playing against a team that will want to score goals and have at best mediocre defence. Both teams do miss some players, but IMO nothing crucial for either coach. I think that Bologna has superior team to Brescia (Brescia fans already unhappy with experienced players and demanding to see young fresh faces in first eleven), while I also think that this time Calori will not have the magic stick like he did have for them few season ago. So better players and also ability to play their game are main reason for this bet, of course Bologna also only beaten twice in last 15 games – both times against teams that they have problems of playing against (Vicenza and Carpi). Odds are nice and IMO we should not be getting more than 1.75 on this line.
  4. Re: Serie A TIM > April 11th & 12th Atalanta Bergamo - Sassuolo Atalanta Bergamo -0.25 (AH-FT) @ 1.86 5/10 SBOBET Despite not liking what Reja is doing with Atalanta since he took over and despite Pinilla is banned and despite Denis (who was their key striker in past seasons) is out of form, Atalanta is for me a must bet this weekend. It is a risky one, but due to table situation where they NEED to get three pointer ASAP and Sassuolo is far more relaxed and able to lose this game, while I also believe that odds/line is great for taking (and already in decline) and offer nice value. Another reason why I must take this bet is fact that both first choice full backs Peluso and Vrsaljko will miss the game for Sassuolo, while despite Pinilla is out, Denis and more importantly Gomez (on him tactics is set on) are back after missing last match and also Benaluane who did not play in last game and who I rate as by far the best defender at Atalanta will play. AC Milan - Sampdoria Sampdoria +0.5 (AH-FT)@ 1.92 5/10 SBOBET OK, why odds on Milan are going down is beyond me, but despite general population is putting their money on “name”, I do think that Milan do not have the power to win this game. Sadly for fans, Milan is made as counter attack team – hence the wins against open opposition as Palermo (despite they were totally lucky to win it) and Cagliari (zone word is enough: Zeman), but when they will play far more tactical team that have excellent midfield that will be at least on par with Milan bone crunchers who lack creativity overall, this will be by far heavier to do. Sampdoria is not so high on table due to being lucky and despite Mihajlovic played the last game vs. Sampdoria totally wrong as he defended for 90 minutes, I do think if he plays same tactics again, he will at least have a point. Milan cannot make the game against defensive teams, they prosper on counter attacks (weird for such “name” club) and if the open up too much, there are excellent midfielders from Samp, who all have good technique (hopefully Acquah gets the start as I really like him) and passing skills, while I don’t have to lose many words about their attack which is superb and only problem there for Samp is that Etoo – Muriel pairing still needs some gelling. There are some misses in both teams, but none of them crucial. De Silvestri should recover on FB position for Samp, while Bonaventura is also a doubt and with him out (also Montolivo is out) Milan will again have “three Gravesens” in midfield. Parma - Juventus Under 2.5 (Match)@ 1.93 5/10 PINNACLE Early bet as odds are already in decline! Odds are set on -1.5 and this line is somewhat interesting, but let we go in more in-depth analysis of this match. Having seen what teams are capable off, the major edge goes to Juve, they are clearly the better of two teams, the team in great form and if they would want to, they could kick the ass of poor Parma team. One thing also needs to be mentioned – both teams have already (not mathematically though) get to the end of the season for them in league. Parma will be relegated, while Juve will be champions. With 9 games Juve have 14 points advantage over Roma, while Parma is 16 points behind last safety spot. So nothing can happen here. Also if Parma manages to win all of the games and secure Serie A for next season – the club will almost surely fell apart and went again from the scratch of amateur football. So I predict rotation from Juve – Monaco game is of more importance, but with missings they have it will be hard to rotate a lot. Also with slight doubts over Tevez and Pirlo I am predicting they won’t play in this game at all. Still Juventus even without all those players (Barzagli and Lichtsteiner doubts, Pogba, Marchisio out) have superb team, with two superb strikers, top defence and still solid midfield and if things will go as predicted (Juve still want three points) I reckon, they will try to do the usual Juve. Press hard in half 1, take the lead and then let the time passes by. Simply looking at performances of Parma and their quality up front, Juve defence will not have any problems of keeping the net intact; they are simply too good there.
  5. Schwechat-Rapid Vienna II 1 ( 1X2) @ 2 2/10 Bet365 Few important reasons for the bet: Rapid will not get help from Profi team this time (they had some players in last game, but still lost the match), while also two important players for them are banned. Home team is full and in good form in last rounds. IMO price is too high. Limit on b365 on non limited accounts is nice and set on over 300 € - hence 2 units.
  6. LASK Linz - FAC Team fur Wien FAC Team fur Wien +0.75 (AH-FT) @ 1.89 4/10 SBOBET LASK is despite they changed coach, still playing poor football and it seems that with latest run without a win, prmotion fight is over, as Mattersburg has nice advantage of 7 points at the top (Liefe cant go in Bundesliga). FAC are showing better performances and I was convinced by their last game, where Hartberg should in reality have left this game with no points at all, as FAC was clearly better team, missed lot of chances and showed good football. They made suicide at the end of match, as two huge mistakes from FAC defence virtually gifted win to Hartberg and left us with result that was utterly different from what was played on the pitch. Line of +0.75 is too high as due to performances shown, it should be set on max +0.5. Both teams are complete, with FAC recovering regular defender Bauer. SV Horn - FC Wacker Innsbruck FC Wacker Innsbruck +0.25 (AH-FT) @ 2.11 4/10 SBOBET Wacker showed improvement in last games, especially in LASK match they utterly dominated poor LASK that had no answer to their attacks. Horn showed brave performance against Lifering team, but that is always possible to play good against open football that LIfering plays. IMO only worry here are some misses at Innsbruck team as three players are out Pirkl and Ampem from defence and Vuleta in attack), while some are a doubt, but only Bergmann who plays on right side of attack can be conisered as regular player. Still I am pretty certain that last results and also finally a win should give this team more confidence. Also quality of teams is pretty similar and despite Wacker is last on the table fair line would be 0 with odds around evens, so this brings value.
  7. Re: Serie A TIM > January 10th & 11th Putting aside being incosistent, I believe they achieved best away results by playing "park the bus" 4-3-2-1 tactics in those matches (I ma certain about Napoli and Lazio games with that set up) as they were really able to neutralise opposittion. it is long time ago, and I did not check my reviews about those matches.
  8. Re: Serie A TIM > January 10th & 11th Just saw that. Firstly thatnks for agreeing on Cesena game, but I simply cant agree on your statement that Sassuolo are relegation material. They played some superb games this season and are hugely improved from last one and currently their defence ranks in the top of Serie A (just take out that sad 0-7 beating by Inter and even stats will tell you where they are currently in conceded goals). If you think that Milan game is a benchmark, you should take a look on Roma - Sassuolo 2-2, where they showed superb organisational skills and in reality (despite I am Roma fan), they deserved to win it. Also they made two superb signings in Vrsaljko and Peluso and all of their players in tridente are one year older - Berardi and Zaza are mightly talented players. I could go on and on about them, but for sure, nobody can be surprised if they will finish on places around 10-12 place. And despite I do agree that teams are of similar quality and that in those cases maybe +0.5 is a good move to take, Udinese for me are the weirdest team around, no consistency whatsoever so they are always likely to put on either Jekyll or Hyde performance. Probably they are even more untrustable as Inter and Milan nowadays. Sassuolo will have hard time playing against defensive lineup from Udine, but one thing should be considered. Di Natale is like 55 years old and fatigue might be an issue - he did leave last game around 65 minute - but even more, in this kind of game where Udine will play counter attack, his lack of pace will nto do Udine any favours.
  9. Re: Serie A TIM > January 10th & 11th ----- Cagliari - Cesena Team news Home: Injury: - Banned: Conti MIDF 12/0 , Farias ATT 13/3 Doubt: Ibarbo ATT 13/2, Sau ATT 11/4, Cossu AMC/ATT 16/2, Cragno GK 14/0 Away: Injury: Marilungo ATT 8/1, Renzetti DEF 11/0, Tabanelli MIDF 3/0 Banned: - Doubt: - Preview: Cagliari despite changing Zeman with Zola made one of bigger losses of season so far, trashed by Palermo with 5-0. Ibarbo and Sau missed the game and are big doubts for this one as well, Conti and Farias got bans for this one, so this is critical situation for coach that wants to play 4-3-3 formation as Cagliari now has a big lack of strikers. Cesena tried to play against better opposition in home match vs. Napoli, but got also trashed same as their opposition, but they do recover Defrel for this match. Things are going really bad for both of those teams. But in this case it is hard to take a look on past results due to both teams having new coaches since not long time. What I gathered from their performances is that Cagliari will play even more offensive and pressing game under Zola, but their defending is awful, probably they even looked better under Zeman. In this last match they looked vulnerable from every position available, be it set pieces or open play. Cesena with new coach Di Carlo did not change much as they still perform with similar 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 formation so they look similar as under Bisoli. Misses for Cagliari (if Sau and Ibarbo miss) are huge Sau is their best finisher, Ibarbo is their best creator in attacking “tridente”, Conti is creator in midfield and Farias is good in positioning himself for open shot and player with good dribbling skills, but usually misses good chances. But if Zola will want to play similar stlye, he is left with Cossu - more of a Totti like player not a goal scorer (but even he is doubtfull), Inter loanee Longo 11/0 and two youngsters Rangel 18yo and Loi 18yo. So crisis in attack, and combine this with awful defence and add 0 wins at home thus far and Cagliari will have major problems of winning even against this painful to watch Cesena. Cesena do have some misses, but more or less all are long time injured so no bigger issues for them, even more, their best scorer Defrel is back in team after ban. What is also important in this case? I mentioned already in last week – that is that Zola is not satisfied with current roster and is looking for new goalie and new acquisitions in defence. I also asked myself question if this will motivate back line to perform better or worse and IMO answer is there, 5 conceded tells a lot about performance of their back line. There are only few days to next game and only Gonzalez came from Verona thus far to strengthen back line. Cesena is working these days in far more peaceful situation. Tactically Cagliari would play 4-3-3 formation but due to misses this could be changed to 4-3-1-2 system in this game, Cesena probably with variation of 3-5-2. What also speaks in favour of Cesena is the fact that they will have options to counter attack against high pressing team and that is surely good for them. I simply can’t see them fighting in open match against Cagliari here. Even more Cagliari with 0 wins at home and relegation places are under more pressure as Cesena at the moment, hence backing away team is very wise thing to do in my opinion. So Cesena +0,75 @ odds over 2.00 is a good bet and should be taken with regular stakes. Additional bets could be Cesena to score and both to score.
  10. Re: Italy lower div You surely mean under 2.25 ;) I do agree with choice as both have major problems of scoring goals. But I tend to like HW here, checking the games these two played - lets take last three ones. Mantova had to play really strong opposittion and they did not show bad performance, got goal dissalowed in last round and were unlucky in Sudtirol match as guests scored from penalty and from one of rare chances. Novara is one level above them so loosing was no surprise at all. Albino faced only teams from bottom of the league and despite playing quite decently in 2/3 those matches, last game was disaster as they were taken apart from Lumezzane team. IMO you are correct when you say teams are probable on similar level, but Albino (at least how i saw it) has major problems with ups and downs during the match and opposittion needs 10 minutes of them is dissaray to crack them open. Odds are now on 1.85-1.90 for HW and that is too low. For me only live betting when line will be on -0.25 BTW - no major problems for either team in this match, Albino full, hostts miss one to suspension and one is doubtfull I like Ascoli today, but due derby match that one, again more "juice" needed to back them up, IMO -0.25 on 2.00+ should be good enough.
  11. Re: Serie B Eurobet > December 16th - 20th Again agree, huge misses for Carpi today, it will be hard for them to score, but on other hand, they are playing extremely well and will be really hard to beat. At this point when odds going down for Lanciano (in morning you could have gotten over 2.10 for same line, so IMO you took this one too late, as misses were known for longer period of time already) I am considering backing Carpi on + hcap as soon this will have nice value in it. Also personally Lanciano for me (subjective view) is the team to back when underdog and not when they are on negative hcap + veeeerrry lucky win agaisnt Terni in last round, Carpi should have demolished Modena in last game but managed only one goal.
  12. Re: Serie B Eurobet > December 16th - 20th You are correct, but three things stand out to me: 1. Avellino could be playing with 3rd keeper today as obvious first choice Gomis (really good goalie) is out, 2nd one had problems with ilness and did not train, 2. added misses that you have written are important as almost all of them could be first choice players. 3. Castaldo - out of form and without him Avellino loooks half the team from last season, he scored on 8.11. and consequently Avellino managed 1 goal in 5. Bologna despite misses have far more options in their team. So I do see much value in Bologna 0 - IMO takeable up to 1.90ish odds.
  13. Re: Serie A TIM > December 18th - 21st To add smt about Torino - Genoa debate: Myself also see Torino as a favourite to win this game, missings for Genoa are huge as both Perotti and Perin are huge, if Kucka will not make it, then that means missings of key players in each department of the pitch. BUT reasons why I dont like it are similar to the ones Phantom wrote. Genoa is superb in away games and thrives on counter attacks, Purely WDL away record of 4-3-0 is superb, Martinez is just what Torino needed (Amauri slow and clumsy, Quagliarella as suspected, still excellent up to the part, when it is needed to put the ball into the net, he has same problem for his whole career, if his finishing was better, I am sure he would be Azzuri legend and would not be playing for Torino ATM. I saw stats few weeks ago and he needed like 50 shots to score 2 or 3 goals), but you cant put soo much trust in him at this point in time,+ Lamanna - he is surely not bad keeper, I remember him from Serie B and despite he is not Perin, he can do well (he did save penalty shot vs. Roma in last match seconds after he came into the match), odds - I simply dont see any value in current odds, IMO min value line for Torino should be at least at 2.20, with -0.25 line worth taking well over 1.90. Conclusion: I like Toro in this occasion, they need a win badly and have performance to go with it, Darmian, Peres and El Kaddouri are the players that can make the difference, but as said, odds are just too bad to take the pre game. So I will play "the waiting game".
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