Jimmy2shoes Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Do you think it was a gamble or more a case of the bookies pricing up the horse at the wrong price last night then over reacting by cutting it to short. Seemed quite weak in the market today and drifted out in price at times from an early price of 7\2 to 6's at times. Even on course it supposedly drifted to 13\2 before been backed into 4\1 SP probably due to assistance from the off course bookies who would not want to high a SP. Mmmmm that's the trouble fella, we just don't know, ran like an old donkey with arthritis, its now a game of poker, what's being backed to win, and what's being backed to lose. In the words of Mr Graham Cunningham..................Sometimes we are swimming with SHARKS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Personally I wouldn't have any problems with STD ride on BB. I wouldnt deny that he could have maybe sat a bit further off the pace initially but at the time STD took up the running, the horse was travelling all over the other two in front and at the point the others were two/three-ish lengths behind all waiting to pick up any pieces they were given. The horse emptied up the hill to my eyes and I don't think it would have made any difference to the result. The old BB would have picked up again when the others got close to him but he just didn't have anything in the tank. Spot on, they showed a split screen of BB winning the WH in 2012 and Saturdays race, BB was ridden exactly the same by Ruby and no one thought that was a bad ride. You cant wait with a horse like BB, he needs to grind it out whether thats just off a quick pace or forcing it himself, Sam rode to the instructions given to the letter. People also forget he's older, he aint going too improve anymore is he? Ruby knew it was right time to leave Nicholls for this very reason, it was the end of an era in more ways than one. I still think BB will go close at Cheltenham as the WH opposition is poor and has been for a couple of years. We need Annie Power and At Fishers Cross to turn up in good nick on fair ground, then we have a real race on our hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Anybody think there was anything dodgy about La Estrella being pulled out today? Rumblings about the fact the winner was 1/80 but if you backed it at 11/10 and had a 50p R4 you would have got nearly 4/7 for an absolute certainty. It also makes the horses equal on 24 wins and now the next race which both connections say were original targets will attract no end of publicity. Its all very convenient? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Was very dodgy. Sure this didn't happen just out of the blue. La Estrella's trainer was so ultra confident the morning before the race, stating he'd have a huge bet on his horse because he extremely sure he would win. Everyone who backed Stan Guard earned easy money, and it makes a great story now with both poised to equal the record when they would meet the next time. One could say yesterday was kind of an appetizer for such a race... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread First of all yipp am speaking out my pocket, BUT does it ever make you wonder where bookmakers find the confidence letting / allowing fancied horses to drift badly in the market ? Example - the night before a race, lets say time 11pm a certain horse is 7/4, then in the morning it goes 9/4 - then 5/2 then 11/4 then 3/1 etc etc so basically they cant give it away, and in the race the horse flops, finishes lets say 4th but was NEVER at the races, question is.............What did the bookmaker know that gave them the confidence to push out the price ??? Sure i understand there is no cash about for said horse, but why ? its almost like faceless people just know with confidence the horse WILL NOT WIN, and thus push out the price to whatever they want. Just about every horse i have backed in the month of January has been a bad drifter, 9 times from 10 i take a price ''in a bookmakers'' the price has drifted and the horse has flopped, so yipp basically the horse has ran to the opinion of its market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread First of all yipp am speaking out my pocket, BUT does it ever make you wonder where bookmakers find the confidence letting / allowing fancied horses to drift badly in the market ? Example - the night before a race, lets say time 11pm a certain horse is 7/4, then in the morning it goes 9/4 - then 5/2 then 11/4 then 3/1 etc etc so basically they cant give it away, and in the race the horse flops, finishes lets say 4th but was NEVER at the races, question is.............What did the bookmaker know that gave them the confidence to push out the price ??? Sure i understand there is no cash about for said horse, but why ? its almost like faceless people just know with confidence the horse WILL NOT WIN, and thus push out the price to whatever they want. Just about every horse i have backed in the month of January has been a bad drifter, 9 times from 10 i take a price ''in a bookmakers'' the price has drifted and the horse has flopped, so yipp basically the horse has ran to the opinion of its market. yeah I agree with you there ...........ive had a few runners recently ....had good form and speed ratings ...priced up at say 6/1 .....then starting in daytime they've drifted from 6/1 to 16/1 during the day ?.................how the hell does a price swing like that happen before the horse has even been seen by anyone on course?................really leaves a nasty taste in my mouth cos its like the bookies know without a doubt that this horse will not be running its race today ...........I don't like it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Ya something amiss there but bookies must have contacts all over the place.Ive noticed a lot in the last year a horse shortens dramatically over a period of a few minutes ,then it's declared a non runner.How would this be possible if connections know it will not run why would they back it? Could it be that it is shortened across the board knowing it will be a non runner thus making the rule 4 deduction larger?a theory with no evidence but very strange. As for horses drifting I would rarely back a horse to a large extent unless it showed significant market support,I am not risking my hard earned backing a horse that I have no clue is even going to be run at its merit ,at least the market gives you some clue :) Example 650 kempton AZABITMOUR..I had that on my short list for today.Not a big fancy but thought odds were too high at 18-1..Now I don't know if that will stay 16f,I don't know if it's even going to try to win but once I see some market support i hope that's a clue that connections think it will stay and they are going for it.then further support and I would have another bet gradually filling up to the actual bet I think the horse is worth ??It doesn't mean it will win or place but over the long period it increases your strike rate/ROI hugely.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread yeah I agree with you there ...........ive had a few runners recently ....had good form and speed ratings ...priced up at say 6/1 .....then starting in daytime they've drifted from 6/1 to 16/1 during the day ?.................how the hell does a price swing like that happen before the horse has even been seen by anyone on course?................really leaves a nasty taste in my mouth cos its like the bookies know without a doubt that this horse will not be running its race today ...........I don't like it ?Yipp some things just stink to high heaven, i watch lots and lots of races before making my mind on a few bets, funny also how some jockeys ride like their life depended on it, then other days they are clearly just making up the numbers, its funny what you see when you watch close enough, same with the whip, you will see jockeys using it ''probably the days the money is down from connections'' then you get days its pretty much hands and heels, looking the part for the TV They all ''jockeys'' have a drive finish in them..............Question is............when will they use it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Ya something amiss there but bookies must have contacts all over the place.Ive noticed a lot in the last year a horse shortens dramatically over a period of a few minutes ,then it's declared a non runner.How would this be possible if connections know it will not run why would they back it? Could it be that it is shortened across the board knowing it will be a non runner thus making the rule 4 deduction larger?a theory with no evidence but very strange. As for horses drifting I would rarely back a horse to a large extent unless it showed significant market support,I am not risking my hard earned backing a horse that I have no clue is even going to be run at its merit ,at least the market gives you some clue :) Example 650 kempton AZABITMOUR..I had that on my short list for today.Not a big fancy but thought odds were too high at 18-1..Now I don't know if that will stay 16f,I don't know if it's even going to try to win but once I see some market support i hope that's a clue that connections think it will stay and they are going for it.then further support and I would have another bet gradually filling up to the actual bet I think the horse is worth ??It doesn't mean it will win or place but over the long period it increases your strike rate/ROI hugely..ooh lost out by a bleeding neck to the outsider of the field backed into to 13-2..:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread This is exciting: Verrazano has been switched from Todd Pletcher to Ballydoyle and Aidan O'Brien! Verrazano was hugely impressive in the first half of 2013 when he won four Graded races, including the Grade 1's Wood Memorial Stakes as well as Haskell Invitational Stakes. He couldn't confirm this form later the year but that was probably down to the fact that he ran quite often in the first six month of the year. Coolmore purchased an interest in him after his first Grade 1 win. Have to say I thought he looked a complete superstar winning the Haskell and I'm really excited to see this horse later one this year here in Europe... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Wolverhampton's kickback gets worse and worse: https://twitter.com/GEORGEMARGARSON/status/430415916711440384 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Tom Segal's gone for 2 in the RSA Morning Assembly 12/1 Smad Place 14/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Master Anton Marcus has done it again: Won one of these big races from the front. This time he was successful in south Africa's premier 10f race, the J&B Met. He rode 14/1 outsider Hill Fifty Four, who finished runner-up in the same race last year. He had to overcome a wide draw (15) yet got the lead soon after the start and never gave it away. Great to see the emotions shown buy Marcus at the end. Would love to see this more in UK and Ireland too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bully3061 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread A must read if having a crack at the Chelt festival big runner hcps. http://sbbcolumns.co.uk/cheltenham-festival-2014-big-field-handicaps/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread racing post are doing a live preview of day 1 of the 2014 cheltenham festival now on youtube the link for whos intrested http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3qL-p8a3jU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread A must read if having a crack at the Chelt festival big runner hcps. http://sbbcolumns.co.uk/cheltenham-festival-2014-big-field-handicaps/ I like some of the advice to narrow the field.... Look for horses aged between 4 and 10 price between 4/1 and 50/1 Finished in the first 9 last time out Carrying between 10 stone and 11-4 GB, Ire or FR bred :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I like some of the advice to narrow the field.... Look for horses aged between 4 and 10 price between 4/1 and 50/1 Finished in the first 9 last time out Carrying between 10 stone and 11-4 GB, Ire or FR bred :unsure So that must leave about 20 from a 24 runner field! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bully3061 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Think there is a saying somewhere you can lead a horse to water. You no the rest :p. Sometimes it's about stopping you backing loosers. Not races i bet in usually but i found it a good read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread While it is very true that the stats don't lie, the only chance you have at making money at this game is to be selective and that means, if there are too many variables, stay out of it! In some handicaps at the festival there are very solid e/w bets, however you will find in many of the non-handicaps there are a few solid win bets. This to me is more attractive. We cant do anything about the price but a winner yields a positive balance always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread heres another great read for cheltenham for those that are intrested: https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread That should be interesting - Lydia Hislop just tweetet: We're addressing the thorny subject of getting on with bookies, account restrictions & closures on @Racing_UK today. Discussion with Steve Mellish on our coverage of Kempton this evening, from 16:30 although the discussion will start after the 1st race. Please ensure you include @Racing_UK in your replies or email [email protected]. We want your genuine experiences. Can't watch it myself as I'm still at work when they discuss but if someone has a chance to watch it, would be interesting to hear what the discussion was like... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hit Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Was just watching At The Races stateside racing - the commentator sounds very much like Peter Griffin from Family Guy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Was just watching At The Races stateside racing - the commentator sounds very much like Peter Griffin from Family Guy! LOL Ladbrokes have a girl who's a bit of a pundit, never seen her but she sounds the double of Radio 1 - DJ Miss Annie Mac. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread heres another great read for cheltenham for those that are intrested: https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home I know its shot in dark ............but after reading this I invested some of my recent winnings only a little ...lol (approx. 7.90) in real terms on briar hill to run in and win the supreme novices ...............I know mullins might send him to alb bart or other but he hasn't got that many top draw hurdlers that could win the supreme ..............just got 112 /1 on betfair approx. total win a grand if runs and wins and given stats in above post ?............if he runs could go close ...........still some 90/1 on there........shot in the dark ....who knows where he will go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty657 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Two on the board for Venetia already today :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread The Irish are having a great time of it over in Dubai Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hit Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread LOL Ladbrokes have a girl who's a bit of a pundit, never seen her but she sounds the double of Radio 1 - DJ Miss Annie Mac. There's one guy on Betfair Radio that sounds just like Chris Moyles! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hit Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Mark Johnston on low grade racing: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2552419/Mark-Johnston-hits-BHA-weather-prizemoney.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Really sad news to here that Chriselliam has been put down due to a foot infection. She was so impressive at the Breeders Cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Really sad news to here that Chriselliam has been put down due to a foot infection. She was so impressive at the Breeders Cup Awful news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.