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Blazing Bailey

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Blazing Bailey last won the day on June 11 2016

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About Blazing Bailey

  • Birthday 11/23/1987

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  1. The last two are the final get out of jail free cards. Grand Annual Capeland (EW) - I am a little concerned that he hasn't done anything around here but his run in the JLT wasnt a terrible run and in fact, bar one quite bad error it would have be much better and that would have a been a bigger test than today. He has run two mighty handicap races this season at Ascot going up 10lb but his performances deserved it. He has then gone into graded races and whilst he was a bit poor on heavy at Ascot, he was impressive at Kempton in a messy race. Back in handicap company I can see this race being run to suit and then it will be a question as to whether the weight becomes too much for him up the hill. Ecclair De Beafeau (W) - This looks an obvious profile from this stable. Not quite good enough in graded races and then goes into a handicap and wins fairly handily. This was apparently the plan before that Leopardstown win, no doubt partly due to his huge run in the County Hurdle last season where he probably hit the front a bit too early and was starting to tire when unseating at the last. Croco Bay (Place) - Last years winner has great form in this race with his 4 attempts as follows: W,5,F,3. He is 13 now but his last run at Doncaster was as good his win in this last year and so he must have another great chance of going close. My main bet on him would be for a place only as surely he will find something too good at his age but there are some fancy prices on Betfair for him and I wouldnt put anyone off. Martin Pipe The final race of the day and I have quite a strong fancy in the form of Column of Fire (W). He stepped up from maiden company to run a big race at Leopardstown, the 2nd running in the Stayers, the 3rd placing yesterday behind Sire Du Berlais and the 5th looking set to go close before falling. That race was over further but a quickly run race over this trip will surely suit and I can see him powering up the hill. I do have two others for smaller stakes. The first is Espoir De Romay (EW) and Umbrigado (EW). The former is a horse firmly on the upgrade and the horse he beat has gone on to win a competitive enough handicap readily in the last couple of weeks. The stable have had a win and a place this week from limited runners. The latter is a Pipe horse that has been going up and down in trip and this finally looks right for him. He was impressive at Haydock when looking to run out of steam and then getting caught out for pace when not running that badly behind Not So Sleepy on heavy at Ascot. The last time he ran at this trip he ran less than 10l behind Reserve Tank in a Grade 1. There is a question over what he will find and aids have been applied but he is worth a tickle at current odds.
  2. Gold Cup Al Boum Photo 178 Clan Des Obeaux 178 Kemboy 178 Lostintranslation 175 Delta Work 173 Santini 173 What a Gold Cup this is going to be. Al Boum Photo is bidding to repeat his win from last year and he would appear to have solid claims to do so. In the back of my mind he is still a horse that will make mistakes, as he showed at Punchestown, and whilst he did it well last season he was 12/1 then and now is a quarter of that price and I think I can let him run at that price. The next three on the list also have question marks over them, CDO needs to show he can be his best on an undulating track, Kemboy needs to jump better and prefers better ground and the Tizzard's aren't firing. That then leaves the 2nd and 3rd from last years RSA who are the up-and-comers in this contest. Santini has always screamed at me as a Gold Cup horse. He had a poor prep for the RSA last season and I think he will improve again for this race. Delta Work has done nothing wrong this season either, dining at every Irish top table and due to how he wins (which isnt by much), his ratings probably don't show his true level of ability. Having won the Pertemps as a 5yo I think he will relish this longer trip and I can see him and the Henderson horse fighting it out at the finish.
  3. Albert Bartlett Thyme Hill 152 Latest Exhibition 150 Monkfish 150 Ramses De Teille 150 The Cashel Man 150 Janidil 150 Cobbles Way 147 This is a tough and competitive race and again wouldn't be one that I would be completely confident about. Ramses De Teille has to be hugely respected. He stays, he has plenty of experience, he is tough but he is a Pipe horse and I would like to see more evidence that they are flying. He must be a very solid EW contender. The two I will chance for the win are two very similar horses in Thyme Hill and Latest Exhibition. Thyme Hill looks the obvious horse. Champion Bumper placed, and this year he has beaten a range of impressive enough horses being strongest at the finish. My biggest concern with this horse is how badly the Hobbs stable is performing here. He has had winners outside of the festival but his biggest hopes here have flopped. I think the current price takes an element of that into account though. Latest Exhibition looks the strongest of the Irish. He ran 2nd to Abacadabras over 16f, which is some performance when considering the trip they are running over this week, he beat a Grade 2 winner, going away over a stiff 20f and he ran similarly over 22f in a race where the 5th was running a big race in the Supreme. The rest have lofty ratings but have either been beaten by one of these two or havent been tested in a tough enough environment for my liking.
  4. Yesterday worked out well, albeit some horses I had reservations about won (Samcro & Min) and a couple I thought would be certainties (Frodon EW & Paisely Park) were well beaten. Either way, it was a good day and even if I dont win a penny today I will still be walking away with a few quid in my pocket! Triumph Hurdle Solo 145 Aspire Tower 145 Allmankind 143 Goshen 143 A Wave of The Sea 140 Sir Psycho 140 There are two I am not keen on for this and they are Goshen and Aspire Tower, the former looking like a dodgy jumper and the other having fallen last time out. They are plenty short enough with those concerns. There is a lot of pace so this could set up for more of a closer like Solo or A Wave of The Sea. The Skelton horse has done nothing but impress me so far and so I will go with him as the pace horse and Solo as the off the pace horse. It's not a race to go big with though. County Hurdle Aramon (W) - Likely to run a big race. Has Cheltenham form, top trainer and jockey and his form makes this mark look workable. You dont see many Grade 1 winners in a race like this, especially when their latest run produced a Grade 1 winner and Grade 1 placed horse at this meeting. Embittered (EW) - A horse who hasnt quite made it at the top level who ran with promise despite being slightly hampered in a good race last time out. Price looks a bit big to me. Stolen Silver (EW) - I would be keener on this horse if his stable had done a bit better here this week but he placed behind Chantry House, beat the Supreme 6th and then probably got caught out a little for pace on good ground int he Betfair Hurdle where it can be difficult to make ground up from the rear. He has been dropped 2lb for that and he must go closer today. Ciel De Neige (W) - I can't believe how much the price has collapsed on this one. Another Betfair Hurdle runner who probably got to the front a little too soon.Only up 4lb, placed in the Fred Winter last season and has the right connections.
  5. 130 Ch: Solo 210 Ch: Aramon 250 Ch: Thyme Hill 330 Ch: Al Boum Photo 410 Ch: Hazel Hill 450 Ch: Capeland 530 Ch: Column of Fire
  6. Brown Advisory Whilst the price is crazily short, it is the only fault I can find with Simply the Betts. The second behind him in his last run bolted up earlier in the week, he has form here, he runs prominently, he jumps well enough and I cant see a way he doesn't go close. I have added another in the form of Ben Dundee (EW) who whilst I wouldnt back him to beat STB, if anything does go wrong with the favourite then I can see him picking up the pieces. I also don't see him finishing out of the from so he rates a very solid EW option. Placed in a competitive handicap behind A Plus Tard last season, and close again at Navan this season, he has Davy Russell on board today and just looks right for this race. The best bit about today is that you get a little chance to have a lie down or hopefully count your money before the finale. Kim Muir Everyone knows by now that it is so important to get the best jockeys in these amateur races. Fresh from his win earlier in the week, I will back Jamie Codd to go close again today with Le Brueil. His stable have been out of form most of the season and as a result he hasn't really had the opportunity to build upon his win under the same pilot in the 4 miler last season and whilst his form hasn't actually been as bad as it has looked (clear excuses LTO), the stable are now starting to fire (Kildisart 2nd earlier in the week). Sticking with the best jockeys, whilst I don't think he is on the board yet Patrick Mullins rides Fitzhenry (EW) and he too must have a serious chance. I wonder whether he is a horse that is too often the bridesmaid in these type of races and if I am right with my other selection then it may well be the same story again but he runs really well in these big handicaps and where a top jockey can count for that little bit extra, he could go one better today. Finally I will also give a small shout to Kilfilum Cross. 2nd in this last year he has had a curious season. He ran at Ayr after that race but that wouldn't be a track he would like, he has then run twice over 19f, doing OK over a trip too short (either side of a PU on heavy ground) before finishing 2nd at Kempton, another less than ideal track, behind a rapid improver who will probably have a big chance on Saturday. That run was 1lb better than his second last season and yet he is 1lb lower. He might have improved this year but we haven't really had the chance to fully see it yet and whilst he looks to be another that is shortening in the market, he too must rate an EW play, with the same jockey as last year.
  7. Stayers Hurdle Paisely Park wins and then its case of whether or not to have an EW play. You could pick from a handful and make a case but I will rule out of a couple of the main ones. Bacardys is best at a shorter trip, Emitom isnt the greatest of jumper, Apples Jade is a bit of an unknown at the moment and connections dont appear confident and I am not convinced that Summerville Boy is true stayer at this trip in a properly run race (although there is a doubt as to whether this will be well run) and City Island will surely need a hurdle prep after returning from chasing. As a result my pin landed on Ronald Pump. He is a quite progressive hurdler and his last run (handicap) was as good as many others have shown this season and only 5lb behind the level Paisely Park has shown this season. It look like others are starting to find him in the market but if he improves again, which is a definite possibility, then he could cause more trouble to the favourite than people may think.
  8. Ryanair Chase Frodon 173 Aso 171 Min 171 A Plus Tard 170 Ridersonthestorm 167 Frodon is massively overlooked in this race in my opinion. A Plus Tard is a worthy favourite, is improving and could well be one of the NAPs of the day but Frodon must be the EW play of the day, if not week. People keep saying how poorly Frodon has ran this season but its bollocks. His Aintree run was rated 1lb better than the previous seasons, he ran really well for a long way in the Betfair Chase against a horse that would be the best horse in training if all races were run over that course and distance and one of the solidest novices from last season and then despite not being the ideal track, he ran and won at Kempton, only 3lb below the form he showed in his prep run in the Cotswold Chase the year before. This horse is at his best around Cheltenham and you can add at least 5lb to what he did last time out, maybe even closer to 10lb. Its not entirely implausible that the horse has actually improved again slightly this season so he really shouldn't be dismissed for all that he is up against a potential star. As for the others, Aso would also rate a solid EW bet but I cant see Min staying on up the hill as he has faded each time before and that was over shorter and Ridersonthestorm is surely backing up a bit soon after a grueling race last time out.
  9. Another good day yesterday topping up the coffers again but generally speaking today is always the make or break day for me. Its the most competitive day and filled with races that I like the most and get this right and it should allow me enough money to smuggle in 100 rolls of triple quilted toilet paper just in time for the apocalypse. Marsh Novice Faugheen 166 Samcro 161 Itchy Feet 160 Mister Fisher 157 This posed me a real problem. I ruled out Samcro pretty quickly because I dont see him finishing his race off. Even when he was throwing down a challenge to Fakir Doudaries in my opinion he was just as likely to fall into a hole just as he did against Faugheen. They have done his wind again but he is way too short and would be one of my lays of the day in all honesty. Faugheen and Itchy Feet are my next two bets. I didnt like the way they were talking about Faugheen after his win at the DRF. It was almost as if that was the day and anything after is a bonus. He didn't jump that well and Easy Game hasn't franked the form and nor has the 4th. Can a horse at his age also come and put in a career best here? I wouldn't want to lay him, but I'm happy to watch him win unbacked. Speaking of iffy jumpers, Itchy Feet must also fall into this category. He was impressive at the business end in that Sandown race and Midnight Shadow is a solid 150 horse and he breezed past him. He ran well here and at Aintree over hurdles last spring and he will cope well with this ground. The problem with him is that he will make mistakes and I am not sure I can see a horse doing a Champ two days in a row. If he minimises the errors then he would have a huge chance. Mister Fisher would also have a chance having beaten another solid enough 150 horse over a shorter than ideal trip but he would be best on better ground. My tentative nod would therefore go to Itchy Feet. Pertemps Handicap My first bet will be Sire Du Berlais (EW). He won the race last year after a troubled passage from 7lb lower and whilst I dont expect him to be able to win this race with a similar passage this year, he must surely go close to winning if it goes well. He loves it here, his runs have been the typical style run for a race like this, getting into a place without showing your full hand and with Gerraghty riding out of his skin so far this week he should be bang there. I have backed The Storyteller (W). I'm not proud of it but sometimes you just have to look at the obvious signs in front of your eyes. As I mentioned above he is a clear plot job and whilst he is well found in the market, he has the form over hurdles, the form at the track and one of the best trainers and jockeys for this type of challenge. Skandiburg (EW) is another I will have a bet on. This horse has abundant stamina and a real test on soft ground looks to be right up his street. I thought he had no chance in the Cheltenham race he won last time out but he found loads under pressure to power away. Why wouldnt you want a horse like that on your side in this race? I am also tossing up a 4th bet which is currently between Stoney Mountain and Third Wind. Most of Third Wind's best form has come over shorter and on right handed tracks which raises an alarm bell to me and I think he is short enough given that this will be a big test. His wins at Sandown and Wincanton show that this is a horse to keep on the right side of but I am not sure this is the day. Stoney Mountain won the same race at Haydock Paisely Park did last season and he won it in a similar fashion by powering clear after the final flight when looking well beaten. Despite that connections then sent him chasing where he UR before sending him to the same race SDB placed in to qualify for this race and he received a somewhat similar ride, essentially never threatening the leaders as they were a bit too pacey for him. Like Skandiburg this looks like the right test.
  10. 130 Ch: Itchy Feet 210 Ch: Skandiburg 250 Ch: A Plus Tard 330 Ch: Paisely Park 410 Ch: Simply The Betts 450 Ch: Concertista 530 Ch Le Breuil
  11. What a run from the final flight that was from Champ... Stewards need to check him out for a jet pack!
  12. Coral Cup Really tough race to call and plenty with chances. In the end I have sided with the following: Bachasson 25/1 Bet365 EW Top Moon 18/1 Unibet EW Dame De Compagne 9/2 Bet365 Alfa Mix 14/1 Bet365 I do have to say that the Henderson mare is now very short and I wouldn't touch her at those prices in such a competitive race. Boodles Juvenile I admit that I have a terrible record in this race, my only winner in recent memory being Flying Tiger (albeit at 33/1) but I don't often go that close. I have changed my approach this season and hopefully it will help! Definitely a small stakes job. Blacko 6/1 Hills (also now a bit short - Was bigger than 20's in the week) Repetitio 16/1 Unibet EW Paladium 13/2 Bet365 Champion Bumper I like the favourite but he is short enough for me in a race like this. I have backed: Israel Champ 12/1 EW Bet365 (really solid form at Ascot and a good figure) Queens Brook 7/1 Bet365
  13. Relatively good day yesterday with a decent enough profit so hopefully that can continue into today. Ballymore Hurdle Envoi Allen 154 Sporting John 152 Easywork 147 Longhouse Poet 147 The Big Getaway 145 The Big Breakaway 145 Decor Irlandais 145 Given how well the form was boosted yesterday is is very hard to see past Envoi Allen in this race. He is somewhat of a bulletproof horse as it is as I can see no way to crab what he has done in his short career. Sporting John is the danger and he too is a very solid horse without too many chinks. I can see him and EA having a right set to up the hill without getting past. The likely improver out of the rest could be the Tizzard horse but his ran disappointingly yesterday and he still has a fair bit to find.I will probably both the first two and maybe even in a forecast. RSA Allaho 164 Copperhead 160 Easy Game 160 Battleoverdoyen 158 Champ 157 Slate House 157 Minella Indo 156 (Hurdles) 149 (Fences) I'm not a huge fan of this race this year but I can rule a few out. Minella Indo hasn't run to this level over fences yet and is short enough with that in mind. Slate House didnt get the ideal prep when pulling up last time out. Champ and Battleoverdoyen both fell last time out and Easy Game has to prove himself over this trip. I have a slight doubt over Copperheads last run, the race looked to fall apart a bit and also as to whether the stable are fully flying, however I will give him a chance to prove himself with my money on him, as well as Allaho who Ruby admits would have got closer to MI last season with a better ride in the Albert Bartlett. This step up in trip on soft ground is set to suit him and he could get the rest at it off the home turn.
  14. 130 Ch: Envoi Allen 210 Ch: Allaho 250 Ch: Alfa Mix 330 Ch: Chacun Pour Soi 410 Ch: Easysland 450 Ch: Palladium 530 Ch: Israel Champ
  15. Just gone through the day 1 handicaps and I must say that I am a bit disappointed that the ones I like the most are quite short in the market, and I actually like both of the current favourites! In the end I sided with the following: Ultima Vinndication 7/1 Ladbrokes - Improving horse, sound jumper, ran well enough int he Festival last season. No reason he wont run well. Kildisart 10/1 Betvictor - Ran well in the JLT and then stepped up to win at Aintree. Back to form last time out and looks set out for this. Mister Malarky 14/1 EW Bet365 - Favourite of mine, a tough, good jumping stayer. Back to his best last time out and no reason he wont run well again. Northern Trust Imperial Aura 11/2 Coral - Two brilliant runs at this track behind big improvers. Last time the stable were a bit quiet and more expected tomorrow. Hold The Note 15/2 Bet365 - Couldn't hang on in Grade 2 over further. In my mind the drop back looks a plus over this stiff track and he will travel well on the likely fast pace. Knight In Dubai 33/1 Bet365 - Good jumper, winning first two easily. Below form at Haydock G2 in bad ground but best can be seen of him here for shrewd yard.
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