Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Wawrinka vs Federer: Wawrinka @Pinnacle 4.60 small stakes No real bets today, but just for the sake of action I decided to go for Wawa against Fedex. Fedex had some troubles lately, dropping a set to Robredo, and I was really impressed by the way Wawa smoked off Andy Roddick. If he can keep the same level today, Roger will be in big troubles.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Honestly, I think both underdogs are worth backing...and perhaps even Petkovic. Will decide later though, but all three seem like value.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Schiavone's odds are crazy. Schiavone 6.50 Wozniacki 1.155. In normal circumstances (Schiavone not spending 11 hours on court) I would price Wozniacki at 1.50 to be honest. So IMO there is value in her price but I just cannot see her winning tonight. I dont think she can hit through Wozniacki on a good day anyway but she'll come to the net and finish her points and take Woz out of her comfort zone with slices. And I'm sure she'll get a look in on some Woz serves as she has been broken a few times by Sevastova and others. But if she's not running at 100% then Wozniacki is not a good player to play. For me it would be Schiavone or nothing here but just cant bring myself to back her, even with small stake. Value also on the overs IMO as I would expect that line to be 20.5 instead of 18.5 but bookies are expecting a blowout it seems. I'll just watch this one and hope for Schiavone win. The lines in Fed/Stan all look fair.....not appealing to me really.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

[.. snip .. ] The lines in Fed/Stan all look fair.....not appealing to me really.

Well, which ones :) On Pinna, they dropped from about 4.750 to 4.260 in about 10-12 hours. Wondering what will be the price immediately before the match.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I like the look of three bets on the men's side... - Novak Djokovic -4.5 games AH (vs Tomas Berdych) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (7/10) I just can't see past Djokovic here. I think when it gets down to the crunch, the Serb is going to have too much for the Czech. I know Berdych got the better of him at Wimbledon but I think Djokovic is playing far better tennis and far closer to his potential compared to back then. They've met twice since then, albeit on an indoor hard court, and Djokovic has won both with something to spare. Berdych has played fine here but he's not at the same level as he was six months ago. Wins over Gasquet and Verdasco look good on paper, but both men have really been cannon fodder for the big guns. Kohlschreiber took a set off the Czech earlier on and I feel that he'll give Djokovic chances on his serve. I've been impressed with the Serb in certain games - Dodig gave him a fright, but Almagro couldn't get near him and Djokovic has got more solid as the tournament has gone on. I feel he is a better player, a man with more variety and consistency, and with the match being played in the evening, he'll be able to escape any heat-related problems. 4.5 games is not a huge line over a best-of-five-sets match. Djokovic could lose a set and still cover the line. For me, he is capable of winning this, and doing so with a bit to spare. The H2H is 4-1 in Djokovic's favour, and I'm not sure Berdych is good enough at this present time to cut that back. - Under 33.5 games (Andy Murray vs Alexandr Dolgopolov) @ 1.98 with Pinnacle (6/10) I think Murray is playing too well at the moment for Dolgopolov to trouble him. Sure, the Ukrainian has had a wonderful tournament, but so has Murray. The Scot has annihilated anyone that's got in his way and Melzer and Garcia-Lopez, two of his opponents, are no mugs at present. He just looks in the zone, a man who defending, attacking and serving with supreme consistency and confidence. He's not dropped a set yet and is fresh. Dolgopolov has spoken how he has improved fitness-wise but he's had a lot of court time - two five-setters with Tsonga and Soderling are going to take their toll. He's said that he doesn't enjoy the physical impact hard courts have on him - his legs tire quicker, and that's a bad thing against Murray. The Scot is like the Duracell Bunny at the moment, full of running, and he'll make Dolgopolov work for every point. Dolgopolov obviously has the weapons to cause Murray problems - his variety will take getting used to - but the Scot will get more back with more purchase than Tsonga or Soderling did. Murray looks extremely driven here, and he'll want to get this done without much fuss. Dolgopolov has done remarkably well to get this far but Murray can bring him back down to earth. The odds and the line are more appealing than the handicap for me. Murray to do this without too much bother. - Rafael Nadal -6.5 games AH (vs David Ferrer) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle (6/10) Nadal was back to his best against Cilic. He showed no signs of the virus that has dogged him in the early part of this tournament - he was perspiring normally and moving in his customary whippet-like manner. He's also serving well. Cilic is not a tremendous returner but he can give players problems, but Nadal snuffed out the threat well. Ferrer, for me, is not playing at his best. He has got here in fairly smooth fashion but his serve concerns me. Worse returners than Nadal has been getting shots at his delivery and that will hurt him. He puts a lot of pressure on himself when he serves poorly and Nadal will lap that up. Ferrer hasn't won against Nadal since 20067, arguably when Ferrer was at his peak, and I don't think he'll get much of a chance here. Nadal will counterract his defensive style of game and wear him down. I don't think Ferrer has the shots to break through his compatriot - against Raonic, he relied on the Canadian firing blanks, which works against the majority of players but not the top 10. London last year showed that the gap between Ferrer and the game's upper echelon is still big. I expect him to be gutsy but if Nadal plays like he did against Cilic, I can't see Ferrer getting anywhere near him in these conditions. Something like 6-4 6-3 6-3 wouldn't surprise me, and that would be enough to cover this line. Entirely feasible, in my opinion. :hope

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I like the look of three bets on the men's side... - Novak Djokovic -4.5 games AH (vs Tomas Berdych) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (7/10) I just can't see past Djokovic here. I think when it gets down to the crunch, the Serb is going to have too much for the Czech. I know Berdych got the better of him at Wimbledon but I think Djokovic is playing far better tennis and far closer to his potential compared to back then. They've met twice since then, albeit on an indoor hard court, and Djokovic has won both with something to spare. Berdych has played fine here but he's not at the same level as he was six months ago. Wins over Gasquet and Verdasco look good on paper, but both men have really been cannon fodder for the big guns. Kohlschreiber took a set off the Czech earlier on and I feel that he'll give Djokovic chances on his serve. I've been impressed with the Serb in certain games - Dodig gave him a fright, but Almagro couldn't get near him and Djokovic has got more solid as the tournament has gone on. I feel he is a better player, a man with more variety and consistency, and with the match being played in the evening, he'll be able to escape any heat-related problems. 4.5 games is not a huge line over a best-of-five-sets match. Djokovic could lose a set and still cover the line. For me, he is capable of winning this, and doing so with a bit to spare. The H2H is 4-1 in Djokovic's favour, and I'm not sure Berdych is good enough at this present time to cut that back. - Under 33.5 games (Andy Murray vs Alexandr Dolgopolov) @ 1.98 with Pinnacle (6/10) I think Murray is playing too well at the moment for Dolgopolov to trouble him. Sure, the Ukrainian has had a wonderful tournament, but so has Murray. The Scot has annihilated anyone that's got in his way and Melzer and Garcia-Lopez, two of his opponents, are no mugs at present. He just looks in the zone, a man who defending, attacking and serving with supreme consistency and confidence. He's not dropped a set yet and is fresh. Dolgopolov has spoken how he has improved fitness-wise but he's had a lot of court time - two five-setters with Tsonga and Soderling are going to take their toll. He's said that he doesn't enjoy the physical impact hard courts have on him - his legs tire quicker, and that's a bad thing against Murray. The Scot is like the Duracell Bunny at the moment, full of running, and he'll make Dolgopolov work for every point. Dolgopolov obviously has the weapons to cause Murray problems - his variety will take getting used to - but the Scot will get more back with more purchase than Tsonga or Soderling did. Murray looks extremely driven here, and he'll want to get this done without much fuss. Dolgopolov has done remarkably well to get this far but Murray can bring him back down to earth. The odds and the line are more appealing than the handicap for me. Murray to do this without too much bother. - Rafael Nadal -6.5 games AH (vs David Ferrer) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle (6/10) Nadal was back to his best against Cilic. He showed no signs of the virus that has dogged him in the early part of this tournament - he was perspiring normally and moving in his customary whippet-like manner. He's also serving well. Cilic is not a tremendous returner but he can give players problems, but Nadal snuffed out the threat well. Ferrer, for me, is not playing at his best. He has got here in fairly smooth fashion but his serve concerns me. Worse returners than Nadal has been getting shots at his delivery and that will hurt him. He puts a lot of pressure on himself when he serves poorly and Nadal will lap that up. Ferrer hasn't won against Nadal since 20067, arguably when Ferrer was at his peak, and I don't think he'll get much of a chance here. Nadal will counterract his defensive style of game and wear him down. I don't think Ferrer has the shots to break through his compatriot - against Raonic, he relied on the Canadian firing blanks, which works against the majority of players but not the top 10. London last year showed that the gap between Ferrer and the game's upper echelon is still big. I expect him to be gutsy but if Nadal plays like he did against Cilic, I can't see Ferrer getting anywhere near him in these conditions. Something like 6-4 6-3 6-3 wouldn't surprise me, and that would be enough to cover this line. Entirely feasible, in my opinion. :hope

brilliantly analysed...i couldn't agree more.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

brilliantly analysed...i couldn't agree more.

Cheers, but only if they come up ;)

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sport Tennis Event Federer v Wawrinka Selection Wawrinka Strength 10/10 Date 25/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Skybet @ 4.33 Reasoning Wawrinka in top form, I don't know what's happened but he started this season very good. Beat Monfils and Roddick without dropping a set which is very impressive. Federer has looked ok so far, wobble against Simon and dropped a set to Robredo. Wawrinka I think will be a big challenge and can make the upset. Money is coming for him too. Sport Tennis Event Djokovic v Berdych Selection Lay Berdych (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 25/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 3.45 Reasoning I don't see an upset here. Berdych seems to have sorted himself out after awful run last year, but still don't think he's near French Open or Wimbledon form from last year. Djokovic has looked good so far and in a night match I don't see him having many problems. Sport Tennis Event Li v Petkovic Selection Lay Petkovic (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 25/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 3.01 Reasoning Should be a good match, but I think a big edge for Li. Both in good form at the start of the year, but Li slightly more impressive. Also think Li has a higher top level and is very close to producing it. Also has more experience, she's had a few grand slam quarter finals and reached the semi finals here last year. For Petkovic it is her first grand slam quarter final and a big test for her. Li a pretty big favourite I feel.

[HeresTheKey]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) i m with a combo in pinnacle which returns 1,71 of the stake djokovits to beat berdych@ 1,336 federrer to beat wawrynka@ 1,28 it s hard to give some reasoning on these - i just cannot compare the quality of the opponents -------- i had a crazy impulse to add wosniaky in this combo, but greed is always a bad advisor in betting

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) 100% agreed on Murray, Atko....took this about half an hour ago. Murray Dolgopolov UNDER 34 games AH @ 1.813 (Pinnacle:5pts) End of the line for Dolgo here...can see a tight set perhaps but fancy Murray to come through pretty well. Simply because I cant see him falling away like Soderling and Tsonga have in previous rounds.Tsonga is not the best returner and his groundstrokes can break down, likewise Soderling's forehand began to leak loads of errors albeit because Dolgo began playing really well and taking his time away. Murray on the other hand is looking really consistent from the back of the court and on serve...and is one of the best defenders around. I expect Dolgopolov to cause him some problems but Murray should be able to get a look at quite a few Dolgo service games and take the win. Dolgo has also played some really tough matches and it may catch up with him here. GL!

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Nothing for me tonight, but the Murray unders tomorrow looks the one. GL all tonight.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Schiavone to win, Fishy.........you know it makes sense.....:ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Okay, this will be ridiculous, so just to make it clear. Somehow I am able to see good reasons for what I am taking. I am not putting any solid stakes on my bets today, but since I see the value, I will play for SMALL stakes. If you are crazy enough to follow me, I very much advise to do exactly the same. This has the potential to be either very profitable, or really embarrassing and I am taking it accordingly. But I think the value is there, so I will play. SMALL stakes, but a lot of excitement and I had a fair share of profits this week, so a few pts loss will not hurt me (and a win would be extremely pleasing). Here we go then. Come on :hope:hope Just don't stone me if I get 0/5 today :lol 3pts (3/10) Melzer/Petzschner to bt. Bryan/Bryan @ 3.69 at Pinnacle One of the Bryans pulled from the mixed doubles yesterday because of health issues with his shoulder. Besides, Melzer/Petzschner are a solid doubles team that is equipped with weapons to beat the Bryans. Dlouhy/Hanley beat them this year already and I dare to say they are worse than Melzer/Petzschner. If the injury starts to come into play, they suddenly become the favorites. Worth the risk in my opinion. 2pts (2/10) T.Berdych to bt. N.Djokovic @ 3.60 at Pinnacle I do not see that much between the two. Berdych is playing incredible tennis at the moment, and so is Djokovic. But Berdych will not fear Djokovic at all - he has beaten him in Wimbledon, after all. Both are pretty fresh, but while Djokovic has not faced any good opponent yet, Berdych has swept Gasquet and Verdasco away single-handedly. To say that he has only about 28% chance of winning is wrong. I think he has at least 35-40. 2pts (2/10) S.Wawrinka to bt. R.Federer @ 4.33 at Boylesports Let me get this straight. Wawrinka beat Monfils and Roddick 3-0. Federer dropped sets to Robredo and Simon. Pure reputation. Of course he is the favorite, but not this huge. We know he may have his struggles even in the Grand Slams and Wawrinka is in his best form for some time. If Federer plays like he did against Robredo, he will lose. He probably won't, but Wawrinka will still have some chances and these odds are huge. 2pts (2/10) A.Petkovic to bt. N.Li @ 2.98 at Pinnacle Both players in pretty impressive form, so this match will surely be a cracker. But I see Petkovic as being more equal to Li than the odds suggest. She has more power than Li and if she can get into rhythm, she should outmuscle Li here. Li is certainly the better player, but by this margin? I doubt that. 1pt (1/10) F.Schiavone to bt. C.Wozniacki @ 6.50 at Boylesports This will either be a tremendous value or a ridiculous loss. However, I think we can make case for Schiavone here at these odds. If she recovers, she is nowhere near these odds, that is without a doubt. A lot of people are comparing this to the Isner-Mahut game, where Isner almost died in the next match. However, Schiavone had one more day to recover than him, spent much less time on the court, etc. etc. I think she can recover and I am willing to risk it here.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Just to clarify the Bryans. Bob Bryan had a shoulder injury and pulled out of the mixed doubles yesterday to protect it. Their opponents were Carsten Ball/Sally Peers, which should have been fairly easy, so the injury is not something really minor. He was the first seed with L.Huber, so I guess that decision was not even easy and I can see him getting troubled on serve today.

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Wawrinka to bt Federer @ $4.00 bet365.com 7/10 Throughout the tournament to date stan has been super impressive, he dispatched monfils, and really was in full control to wipe roddick of the court(which was a suprise to some), Federer was pushed by Simon early and again by robredo on a hard court which absolutely stunned me. Since this time last year where murray had his chances but fed played nearly as good as ive seen, he is not the same person, his backhand in long heavy rallies is very susceptible as he shanks it way too frequently. Stan and Fed are obviously very close friends, each will know the others inside out, and i really believe stan is more consistent and aggresive from the back of the court, he is returning extremely well, and i honestly believe fed isnt the player he once was, now is the time for stan to claim another big scalp

[totse]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Event	Wawrinka S. (Sui) - Federer R. (Sui)
Selection	Federer, R - to lose the 1st set and win the match
Strength	10/10
Date	25/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 5.00
Reasoning	Wawrinka is doing so well at Australian open he didn't loose even a set against Wimbledon youngster champion Dimitrov, Monflis and Rodick, he is 12-0 sets and play wonderful tennis here. Wawrinka produced more than twenty aces in three sets against Rodcik he serve with more than 137 miles in third set, that's very interesting he is not exausted to make that, Rodick very often in the match can't see the ball and don't move when Stas served. If Wawrinka repeat that playing Roge will struggle today. I don't beleive Federer will take this one so easy, it's true that Wawrinka did easy breaks against his opponent serving but Roge will not allow that. Everyone can see that after Roge loose a set his motivation is far better and his fit goes up, so I think Stanislas will surprise Roge in opening set but he will struggle to take this one, too possible five sets decider to be this one.

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) glad i decided not to go to the tennis today, stan seems clearly distracted dunno what has got into him but he cant play worse hope he can turn it around:\

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Schiavone to win' date=' Fishy.........you know it makes sense.....:ok[/quote'] Haha odds like you say are way too high for the Italian as Wozniacki has hardly looked world class. Schiavone hasn't been great either so is a defo no bet for me. If I was to take a bet on it, looks to be great value in Schiavone so hope she comes through for you. :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) That is a solid letdown from Schiavone...3-1 in the second set and lost 3-6. That one got away :\ The Bryans did look a little bit shaky and I am not convinced they would have won the third. Those two were good calls for the prices. Wawrinka and Petkovic never in it. I was wrong in those. Now I do not know who to support. I got Berdych at solid odds, but on the other hand, the opposite multiple is in play too (just took all the favorites in a small acca to basically cover the losses if I indeed go 0-6). Anyway. Go Berdych :nana

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

glad i decided not to go to the tennis today' date=' stan seems clearly distracted dunno what has got into him but he cant play worse hope he can turn it around:\[/quote'] Stan completely rolled over, doesnt have the balls to compete with Federer in a slam match.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Have not seen the match, can anyone tell me what Stan's problem was? Was he not aggressive enough?

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I only watched parts of it but it was enough.....Stan with no belief that he could make this close. Federer didnt even have to play great, of course some great shotmaking at times but not near his top level and still cruised.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Na Li 1.746 vs Wozniacki 2.260 Bookies are on the ball for this one.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Ah, that was to be expected with Stan. I guess he will never solve that problem. Na Li is the favorite in my book, but I would want to have at least 1.90. Maybe the money will come on Wozniacki, as most people still overrate her. So I guess I will wait on that one and see if the odds change in my favor.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I really hope Wozniacki does her. Will make me feel a whole lot better for not taking her e/w at 50/1 :unsure

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Maybe Na Li beating Clijsters last week didnt help either....I was hoping to get her at evens or above. Match is on her racquet IMO but maybe Wozniacki has a shot if Li makes tons of errors, which she is capable of.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Federer is just a bad match up for Stan. Stan is neither a constant concussive baseliner like Soderling or Del Petro, or a persistent, crafty fox like a Murray. These are the types that Federer can struggle with. Wawrink is sort of a jack of all trades type player with a great backhand, which isn't enough against Federer. Then there's the mental side which comes with playing someone he knows so well. Federer as well was due a good performance.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Wozniacki always has a shot if the other player starts misfiring, because she is always very consistent. However, she has no weapons to hit through Na Li. But the more I look at it, the more I am starting to like Wozniacki. You need to play aggressively the whole time and I am not sure Li can do that. I guess I will wait until tomorrow though.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Can you guys just give me a bit of faith and confidence by resolutely saying Li won't win ;)

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Federer is just a bad match up for Stan. Stan is neither a constant concussive baseliner like Soderling or Del Petro' date=' or a persistent, crafty fox like a Murray. These are the types that Federer can struggle with. Wawrink is sort of a jack of all trades type player with a great backhand, which isn't enough against Federer. Then there's the mental side which comes with playing someone he knows so well. Federer as well was due a good performance.[/quote'] He exposes Stan's movement aswell. Stan is at his best dictating rallies but struggles to do that against Federer. Dont think Federer is gonna win the whole thing though.