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Atko

Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Jumping on this one early. Can only see the odds falling. David Ferrer vs Andy Murray- Murray -5.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (6/10) [..snip..]
Tailing you on this huge @Pinnacle 1.862. Ferrer played really well today, while Murray struggled a bit against Dolgo. Applying the logic than no two successive matches of the same player are on the same level, Andy should be rolling and David should be back to his London form in the next match. GL.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Count me in on the Murray bandwagon too... - Andy Murray -5.5 games AH (vs David Ferrer) @ 1.862 with Pinnacle (8/10) Big thanks to fishy for posting his tip up early, as I'd have probably missed the price if he hadn't. Feel this is extremely generous on the Scot here, I was expecting a -6.5 line at these sorts of odds. I reckon the bookies have overreacted to Ferrer's win over Nadal. Great result for him but a fit Nadal would have creamed him. Fact is that Ferrer isn't a serious threat, IMO, in Slams expect on the clay. He doesn't hit enough winners and top players on their game punish him for that, and his poor serve by Top 10 standards. Nadal made headway on that even at the very depths of his match yesterday. Murray cost me with his third set shutdown against Dolgopolov but he's going to be focused here. He knows how good Ferrer is at defending so he'll need to be playing his best. If he does that, he'll have enough to cover this. Better serve, more juice on his winners and better at the net. I was at their last meeting, where Murray completely dismantled Ferrer in London. Slightly different conditions here with the courts a bit slower, but still think Murray has the better of him. On clay it's a different story, but there's too much at stake for Murray here on a surface he enjoys and a tournament he plays well in. Would have even gone bigger if it wasn't for the blip today. Really fancy Murray to do this. :hope

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Challenger Heilbronn Bastian Knittel v Andreas Beck Knittel 2-0 4.00 b365 Since I rate this as hard to predict I think it's not worth taking Knittel to only win so I go for setbet with small stake. Knittel beat last years finalist in Heilbronn Golubev yesterday and never faced a breakpoint. He had a high percentage of first serve points won. Higher then his opponent Beck had in his match against Kravchuk. Kravchuk had 10 break point opportunities against Beck and only converted one where Golubev had none against Knittel. I think Knittel is the better player now.
Wow it worked 2-0 Knittel :) 6-2 6-2 and he did'nt drop serve again. Beck had 4 break points but failed to convert. b365 had livestream so I saw Knittel served himself out of trouble every time.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Wow it worked 2-0 Knittel :) 6-2 6-2 and he did'nt drop serve again. Beck had 4 break points but failed to convert. b365 had livestream so I saw Knittel served himself out of trouble every time.
Good call bud :ok What a fall from grace for Beck!

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Good call bud :ok What a fall from grace for Beck!
Yep he's fallen on the ranking. His form is awful and has been a long time. I will keep posting challenger bets here for this week because I don't think it's necessary to open another thread about it while the grand slam is still on.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I'm also glad to jump on the Murray bandwagon. I think Atko told and Fish25 told already everything about this game. I take the Murray-4.5@1.73 (7/10) at StanJames

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Ryan Harrisson plays Honolulu challenger along with Robert Kendrick this week so don't miss any good bets on any of them. I just placed a livebet on b365 -4.5 Harrisson 1.72 vs some Ti Chen guy who I never heard of. Ti Chen 27 years old. Turned pro 9 years ago. Never been higher ranked then 230 or something and now about 544 vs Ryan the young talent.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sport Tennis Event Federer - Djokovic Selection Over 39.5 Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.04 Reasoning In my opinion this game can be very long, I don't believe for Federer win 3-0. Djokovic take minimum one set here. Last match on the Grand Slam in H2H is US Open 2010. Djokovic won after 5 sets. Federer want make revange today, but I don't see easy game for Roger. Djokovic on this tournament look very confident and strong, concended only one set in second round against Dodig in TieBreak. Serving very strong here and is be able to hold many serve games. Federer off course is the biggest favourite to title after Nadal lost, but in this tournament concended 2 sets against Simon and one set against Robredo. In my opinion concended next today. ---- Sport Tennis Event Zvonareva - Clijsters Selection Zvonareva Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 2.43 Reasoning I see more chances for Zvonareva win here than Bwin oddsmakers, really. Zvonareva in season 2010 played 4 times against Clijsters and won 3 match from this! In my opinion today can do it next time! I watch last match Zvonareva against in-form Kvitova. Vera look very confident, don't making too many unforced errors and be very strong in defense. Clijsters in this tournament making too many unforced erorrs in my opinion, in last match against Radwanska in second set look very bad many times. Agnieszka miss 5-4 30:0 at the serve.. --- Sport Tennis Event Li - Wozniacki Selection Li Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 1.80 Reasoning In my opinion Na Li is clear favourite in this game, I don't see too many chances for Caroline here. Li leading 2-1 in H2H and beat Wozniacki in last season, here at the AO 2010. Make win without too big problems, in two sets. For me Li is better form than last year and Wozniacki look worse. Li in this tournament beat in two sets all rivals, good girls like Azarenka or Petkovic. Li shots are deep and flat, serve really confident, many winners. Wozniacki not play good here, many unforced errors, shaky serve and have lucky in last match - losing 3-6, 1-3 against tired Schiavone, but Francesca lost all power and give chances for Wozniacki.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Oh god this cant be good, every one is on the murray bandwagon, he aint flying under the radar no more hehe:lol Will talk later about djok winning and murray handicap

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

EventClijsters K. (Bel) - Zvonareva V. (Rus)
SelectionClijsters K. (Bel) (- 3) games (Asian-handicap)
Strength10/10
Date27/01/2011
Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 2.49
ReasoningClijsters is far better than the russian, she didn't loose even a set here, while Vera reach the semis after very heavy matches with three czechians in previous three rounds, she was in trouble against Safarova, also against Jovanovski. Vera won three of last four matches between she also stopped Kim at Wimbledon semifinals, but I think this time Clijsters will take some kind of revenge just like at Us open few month ago when she crashed Zvonareva 6-1 6-2 at the final. All Clijsters matches so far in the tournament she won with four or more games spread Zvonareva isn't so strong accroing to her power, so she can do it again.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Caroline Wozniacki vs Na Li under 21.5 games 4/5 skybet two players who are well matched this will go all the way i feel Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer over 38.5 games 5/6 skybet this is going to be a classic it is either which one will make the mistake maybe in the fourth or fifth sets Kim Clijsters vs Vera Zvonareva over 21.5 games 4/5 skybet another i think that will go all the way clijsters has not faced good player like zvonavera so she is going to be tested along the way

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Honolulu challenger is great in the first round for livebetting :nana I took Ryan Sweeting -6.5 2.10 vs some unknown guy ranked 561. Sweeting won easy as expected 7-6 6-0. His opponent got tired after first set but I took -6.5 when Sweeting had a break up in first set. Still it's quite expected that an unfit player has no steam left after one hard set.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) CHALLENGER PICKS!!!:cow Sport Tennis Event Renavand - HaiderMaurer Selection Renavand +4 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.75 Reasoning I see chances in this game for the home player Renavand. Renavand is player who playing only in the French small tournaments, in last weeks of the last year make great result in Orleans Ch and beat TOP150 player Gicquel and TOP100 Robert. Renavand have very strong serve and can holding long time. In first round here don't have any chances for Drieux and won 6-1, 6-2. Haider Maurer off course is favourite here, making better result and have better ranking, but in first round here played against not great Wolmarans(out of TOP250) and won after two TB 7-6, 7-6. Form is not great and I see chances for Nicolas! --- Sport Tennis Event Maas - Przysiezny Selection Maas +9 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.85 Reasoning In my opinion this line is too high, this is not WTA guys! This is mens tennis and players have power for the serving and can hold 3-4 games in match, really. Przysiezny back from Australia, first match in this season in Challenger Tour, play against no name player and motivation don't must be high and in my opinion not play on 100%. Off course is two class above rival, but I don't see 6-0, 6-0. Maas have court practise because must play first round here, played against Japan player Takahashi and won without any problems in two sets, concended only 2 games! --- Sport Tennis Event Sibilla - Sadecky Selection Sibilla +8.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.85 Reasoning Next game with too high line in my opinion, Sadecky is not great player, I'dont understand bookies here. Sibilla is old, really experience player, propably one of the last tournament for this man in career. This is home player and motivation must be on the highest level. In first round not be favourite against Vadel, but take win in three sets. Sadecky don't feel the best at the hard courts, this is claycouter. In first round make small suprise and beat Millot, but this is not Sadecky win - this is Millot lost, in supporters opinion make 1000 unforced errors. --- Sport Tennis Event Bachinger - Bogomolov Selection Bachinger Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 1.90 Reasoning I see more chances in this game for Bachinger, odds are on the good level, I go with Bach! Bachinger is home player and have supporters! In my opinion feel big motivation and want show the best skills for all. In first round Bachinger been underdog against other Germany player, seed nr 9 Gremelmayr and.. destroy this guy in two fast sets 6-1, 6-0! Hot form. Bogomolov always playing only in USA, don't feel great in Europe - many losts in a row, but in first round here won - beat Korolev in two sets. One problem - Korolev in last months is totally out of form. --- Sport Tennis Event Janowicz - Berrer Selection Over 22.5 Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.00 Reasoning I see more than 22 games in this game, long, propably three setter match in my opinion. Both players are big serves, both can holding serve long time, perfect guys to play Over. Janowicz in first round played against other very good Challanger players Igor Sijsling, but won in two sets and show incredible stuff at the serve - 12 aces and don't give any chance to break for the rival. Berrer off course is favourite here, play at home, defending many points, but I see hard match for this guy. In first match beat Mertens in two sets and like Janowicz don't give any chance for the break. --- Sport Tennis Event Ryderstedt - Huta Galung Selection Ryderstedt +3.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 27/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.90 Reasoning I see more chances for the Michael in this game than bookies, in my opinion this line is too high - can beat Huta Galung! Ryderstedt is typicall big server, really hard to break on this level. Have court practise and look confident. Won three Q matches and in first round in two sets beat experience Schuetller. Don't concended a single serve game. Yes, Huta Galung is good player, but I see hard match for this player today. Huta Galung don't have great return and basing on the strong first serve. 3 setter!

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Was considering taking Li at 50-1 before the Clijsters match and before the draw was made. She's actually got a decent draw and if she plays well could easily reach the semis or better but she's down to 25-1. Although I feel she has a chance' date=' and feel Federer will get to the final at least, will hold back on the outrights and just concentrate on the individual matches.[/quote'] :puke

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Li-Na to beat Wozniacki @Pinnacle 1.699 WIN Murray to beat Dolgopolov 3-0 @Pinnacle 1,813 LOSS Clijsters vs Zvonareva: Over 21.5 games @Pinnacle 1.901 (2 units) LOSS Djokovic vs Federer: Djokovic @Pinnacle 3.04 (1 unit) pending
Murray choked away the break lead in the 3rd, bad luck. Dolgo played really well. Never had any doubts with Li-Na, hahaha, except perhaps during the Wozniacki's matchpoint :-). Kim pulled out the best tennis of her life and was significantly below her usual number of doublefaults. Will see whether Djoko overturns the overall loss to tiny profit.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hello, this is my 1st post, I normally read all here in Tennis, and thanks a lot, it really helps me taking my bets. I have a problem now, and would realy aprecciate some help. I made a bet of 50 USD, to Na Li, win the Australlian Open, it pays 36.07, or 1753 usd. How can I dont lose everything if she loses. If im going to bet on Clijters, it pays only 1.39, so I will lose almost all my profit. Should I wait so the odds on Clijters go up? Any sugestions? ty all

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Hello, this is my 1st post, I normally read all here in Tennis, and thanks a lot, it really helps me taking my bets. I have a problem now, and would realy aprecciate some help. I made a bet of 50 USD, to Na Li, win the Australlian Open, it pays 36.07, or 1753 usd. How can I dont lose everything if she loses. If im going to bet on Clijters, it pays only 1.39, so I will lose almost all my profit. Should I wait so the odds on Clijters go up? Any sugestions? ty all
you re in a very good position mate and there are many variants i ll give you the first one that comes in my mind if you bet 1000 on klisters you have 390 usd profit so if she loses you have 753 profit if she wins you have 340 profit(net profit) easy money :clap

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

you re in a very good position mate and there are many variants i ll give you the first one that comes in my mind if you bet 1000 on klisters you have 390 usd profit so if she loses you have 753 profit if she wins you have 340 profit(net profit) easy money :clap
ok, ty, but in that case i am risking 1000 of profit just to get 340. Maybe in that case I let it stay like that, I think Li won last game between them....

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

ok, ty, but in that case i am risking 1000 of profit just to get 340. Maybe in that case I let it stay like that, I think Li won last game between them....
mate if you let it like that you re risking to lose all your 50dollars bet why to do so? you have the SURE opportunity to win either 340 or 753

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

mate if you let it like that you re risking to lose all your 50dollars bet why to do so? you have the SURE opportunity to win either 340 or 753
I just dont understand, the odds, Li already beat Clijters this month 7-6 6-3

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I just dont understand' date=' the odds, Li already beat Clijters this month 7-6 6-3[/quote'] who cares about the odds? any sporting event has every outcome possible yesterday ferrer beat with 3-0 the monster(in a good sense) called nadal what were the odds for that score? 30? just do as i say mate and thank me later

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Clijsters was utter crap in that final versus Na, after going 5-0 anyway. She showed last night she means business....odds looks fair considering its a grand slam final IMO.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Hello, this is my 1st post, I normally read all here in Tennis, and thanks a lot, it really helps me taking my bets. I have a problem now, and would realy aprecciate some help. I made a bet of 50 USD, to Na Li, win the Australlian Open, it pays 36.07, or 1753 usd. How can I dont lose everything if she loses. If im going to bet on Clijters, it pays only 1.39, so I will lose almost all my profit. Should I wait so the odds on Clijters go up? Any sugestions? ty all
It's on you whether to cash 442 usd now, or continue with the hope to cash 1703. In the later case you might as well cash nothing if Li loses. If you prefer to cash now, just bet 1261 = 1753/1.39 (payout/odds of the other bet), and you will cash 442 = 1753 - (1261+50) no matter what happens in the final. But it's upon you what you choose :dude

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