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Everything posted by Atko

  1. Re: Pre-Season - January 11 Falla hasn't won since July, so he's in horrible form. Gojowczyk had a good season last year and is improving, so I reckon it'd be hard to see past him. Falla can be dangerous as he's a good player, but in poor shape right now.
  2. Re: Pre-Season - January 11 I think Hewitt's fire is probably on its last embers. His serve in particular is so attackable. Getting broken by Sam Groth three times is not good form. Gives us a clue as to where his game is though. As for Berankis, that is just a brainfart. Still quite young and inexperience though, and this kind of thing happens with more juvenile players. I just hope he can get the job done in the third. When it comes to losses, don't get too downbeat. Try to analyse why it lost and use the reasons why when considering future bets. We will all hit losing bets, almost every day - the trick is to learn the lessons as to why they lost and make sure the same mistake isn't repeated again so that the winners outweigh the losers.
  3. Re: Pre-Season - January 11 This is an excellent shout :ok
  4. Re: Pre-Season - January 11 Hello everyone! Tennis season back for another year. Hoping to get more involved this season, so here are my picks for today's matches :ok All odds with Unibet. - RICARDAS BERANKIS (v Luca Vanni, Chennai R1) x MALEK JAZIRI (v Joao Souza, Doha R1) @ 2.05 As well as Vanni has done in qualies, I can't see him being able to take down Berankis. The Lithuanian is better off the deck and more accustomed to hard courts. As for Jaziri, he's a more than capable player in this environment and will know the importance of winning this kind of match, on what is close to home soil, against a player who is reliant on serve and much more proficient on clay. - LEONARDO MAYER (v Andreas Seppi, Doha R1) @ 2.05 Mayer has his 'breakthrough year' last season and I expect him to be too strong for Seppi. He's got the bigger serve and has added a lot more consistency to his groundstrokes. Seppi's best years are probably behind him and he's always susceptible on serve. A year ago, in this environment, I'd have backed Seppi, but the Italian isn't at the level he once was and I'd back Mayer to take him out at odds against. - UNDER 17.5 GAMES (Novak Djokovic v Dusan Lajovic, Doha R1) @ 1.86 Djokovic's illness permitting, he should beat his fellow Serb comfortably. I can't see Lajovic getting any more than five games in this one, which would cover the line. Lajovic is sparrer and he beats players by out-rallying them. That won't work against Djokovic, who will suck up anything that's thrown at him and spit it right back with interest. This ought to be a routine win for the world No.1. - PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER -3.5 GAMES (v Jan-Lennard Struff, Doha R1) @ 1.85 I think this is a nice line on Kohli. He's the better player than Struff, who for me is very dependent on his serve. His game outside of that is still a bit wooden. In the only match they've completed, Kohli won 6-4, 6-3 and I'd expect a similar tale here. PK is good on slower hard courts and as long as he's mentally attuned, he'll take this and the line. - ELIAS YMER +1.5 SETS (v Igor Sijsling, Chennai R1) @ 1.89 The young Swede is one of the up-and-coming players and certainly has a chance against the Dutchman. Sijsling hasn't been at his best for quite some time and is hugely reliant on his serve. If that goes, he tends to get down on himself and confidence goes. Ymer is a wildcard and will be desperate to get a main Tour win under his belt. He might not achieve it, but I expect him to come close. - LUKAS LACKO (v Aljaz Bedene, Chennai R1) @ 1.85 Lacko won the only meeting between these players and I reckon he'll do it again. Bedene came through the qualies so has the game-time, but Lacko has more power. It'll be a bit of a ball-bashing fest, but I rate Lacko's chances of getting the job done, although possibly in three. - UNDER 19.5 GAMES (NVS Prasanth v Jiri Vesely, Chennai R1) @ 1.98 I have never seen Prasanth play, so I'm going in a bit blind here, but I suspect there will be a big gulf in class. Vesely's a good player, an up-and-coming lefty who will have matured a lot since last year. Nice, strong serve, decent groundies ... he should be several levels about Prasanth, who is only in the main draw because Illya Marchenko gifted him the win in qualies. - PABLO CARRENO BUSTA -2.5 GAMES (v Alejandro Gonzalez, Chennai R1) @ 1.84 My big issue with Gonzalez is his hard-court ability. He is a very archetypal South American clay-courter who doesn't win many matches on this surface. PCB isn't too hot on hard either, but I see more scope for improvement in his game on this surface and for that reason, I reckon he'll get through this one. He's the more attack-minded player and that mindset will pay off here. Good luck with all your bets :hope
  5. Re: July 14 - July 20 A few for later on today ... - ATP Hamburg: David Ferrer -5.5 games v Andreas Seppi @ 2.12 with dafabet Generous odds on a line that Ferrer has covered all six times these two have met in best-of-three encounters. Neither man was convincing in opening-round wins, but Ferrer has an extra day's rest and evidently enjoys the match-up. - ATP Bogota: James Ward +2.5 games v Jimmy Wang @ 1.90 with dafabet Wang had a long three-setter yesterday with Przysienzy and only just scraped by. Ward is rested, is happy with the conditions having come through qualies and has beaten Wang before. Very close match in prospect, so to get the +2.5 games on Ward seems a little exuberant on the books' behalf. - ATP Bogota: Samuel Groth +1.5 sets v Richard Gasquet @ 2.16 with dafabet Tough opening match for Gasquet. Groth is in good form, confident, serves big and is au fait with the conditions and altitude here. Gasquet could easily drop a set in this match due to rustiness, so quite happy to play this one at good odds again.
  6. Re: July 14 - July 20 Here are the rest of my Hamburg selections ... - Dominic Thiem -2.5 games v Marcel Granollers (in Hamburg) @ 1.90 with dafabet I was really impressed by Thiem yesterday against Jiri Vesely. He was striking the ball really well and seemed right at home on the clay here. He had a poor grass spell, but as he's young, I put that down to not being mature enough to deal with the conditions. He's proven himself already on clay - he beat Stan Wawrinka a few months ago - and, perhaps more ominously, beat Granollers in Barcelona, covering the handicap. The Spaniard is fine in these conditions, but Thiem has the armoury to hit through him at the baseline and the imagination to pass him at the net should he rush it. I think he's a good bet to win this match and cover the line. - 2pts staked - Tommy Robredo -3.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (in Hamburg) @ 1.99 with dafabet Robredo has a shocker in Bastad last week in losing to Renzo Olivo, but as most of the top players tend to do, I expect him to bounce right back here. DGT is probably in his optimum conditions on clay, but I feel he still hasn't harnessed his power game properly and is far too inconsistent. His win yesterday over a half-fit, half-motivated Teymuraz Gabashvili doesn't do a lot to the form book either and he tends to struggle against higher-ranked players. Robredo is experienced, has beaten DGT twice before and knows how to bounce back from bad defeats. I expect him to cover the line. - 1pt staked - Benoit Paire +3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo (in Hamburg) @ 1.83 with dafabet I'm not one for backing Paire normally, but I reckon he might have a chance here. The last six months for the Frenchman have been punctuated by injury, but coming through a tough match with Andrey Golubev yesterday will have boosted his confidence and there is no doubt he's a quality player - probably top 30 - when his best game clicks into gear. Giraldo's had a fine season himself, but I wonder if he's starting to fizzle out a little bit. The signs are there, such as a dropped set last week to Philip Davydenko. Paire's beaten him before - albeit on a hard court - but after yesterday's win and taking into account Giraldo, I'm going to play on the +3.5 line. - 1pt staked
  7. Re: July 14 - July 20 Going to make a return to the PL threads. Two early ones with a few more to come ... - Martin Klizan -4.5 games v Igor Sijsling (in Hamburg) @ 1.88 with dafabet Sijsling is in really poor form at the moment and clay is probably his least effective surface, so I can seem him struggling against Klizan here. The Slovak's favoured conditions are the red dirt and he'll get a lot of joy from his left-handed forehand on to Sijsling's single-handed backhand. The Dutchman is not well-regarded for his defence and I can't envisage him being able to deal with Klizan's attack. Klizan defeated him indoors last year too and is back to something near his closest form. -4.5 games is a big line, but it's very doable considering where Sijsling is right now. - 1pt staked - Over 22.5 games between Albert Ramos and Jerzy Janowicz (in Hamburg) @ 1.99 with dafabet Janowicz's ranking has plummeted since his R3 departure at Wimbledon and he really needs to pick his form back up. I feel the price on him is too big, but Ramos, due to some nice work on the clay in recent weeks, merits respect. With that in mind, I'm inclined to take the overs here. They met twice last year and in best-of-three encounter on clay it went the distance. I can see that being the case again today. Both men have different styles - JJ hits the ball very hard, throws in dropshots and is quite erratic, while Ramos is more mechanical yet less likely to hit winners. The ingredients are there for a tight match and 22.5 games does not seem unreasonable. - 1pt staked
  8. Re: February 17 - February 23 He retired with a neck injury against Karlovic. Don't know the reason for today's withdrawal, but suspect it'll be the same problem.
  9. Re: February 17 - February 23 Going to make a return to the forums. Been far too long :ok Here are my bets for today. - KEVIN ANDERSON -3.5 GAMES (v Tim Smyczek, Delray Beach) @ 1.84 with dafabet Quite happy to back Kevin in this one on the line. Former champion in this event, likes the conditions and comes here fresh. He's beaten Smyczek before by covering this line. Young American is too inconsistent for me to trouble the big boys. Anderson should prevail with little fuss. - TOBIAS KAMKE -4.5 GAMES (v Kyle Edmund, Marseille) @ 2.06 with dafabet Edmund is a young British player whose best results have come on clay. He's inexperienced at this level and although he only lost 6-3, 7-5 to a half-fit Vasek Pospisil in Chennai earlier this year, there's a gulf in class with Kamke. The German is a decent top 100 player and for my money should be able to cover this line. - EDOUARD ROGER-VASSELIN -4.5 GAMES (v Ante Pavic, Marseille) @ 1.85 with dafabet Pavic came through qualies here, but, again, there's too much of a gulf in class. ERV is probably in the form of his career right now and Frenchmen are always very strong in Marseille. ERV is a very attack-minded player and I can see his style getting him through this cosily. - PABLO ANDUJAR -3.5 GAMES (v Julian Reister, Rio) @ 1.83 with dafabet Reister is on a bad run of losses right now and Andujar clicked into some form last week in Buenos Aires. Spaniard is probably a level or two above Reister and these slow clay conditions in Rio will suit him. Ought to win with a bit to spare. - PABLO CUEVAS -2.5 GAMES (v Alejandro Gonzalez, Rio) @ 1.85 with dafabet Big match for Cuevas here. He's coming to the end of his protected ranking and a win in a 500 event is a must if he's to play in more of these bigger events. Couldn't really have asked for a better draw than Gonzalez, who hasn't really made the step up from Challenger to World Tour and has struggled badly on serve during the Latin clay swing. Cuevas is a good player who has been curtailed by injury - top 40 on his day - and should win by enough to see this line through. - ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV +1.5 SETS (v Nicolas Almagro) @ 2.11 with dafabet I think this will be a tight match. Dolgo is probably at her lowest ranking for some time, but on clay, he's a massive threat. He's defeated Almagro before and the Spaniard wasn't that convincing in making the semis in BA, where he was routined by Ferrer (again). Nico is rightly favourite, but Dolgo has a good chance of pinching a set. - ALJAZ BEDENE +4.5 GAMES (v Fabio Fognini, Rio) @ 1.94 with dafabet These two have met twice before, including once this year, and each time Bedene has covered the line. Big server who likes the clay. Fognini is on a great run on the dirt, but he lost the final of BA to Ferrer just two days ago and will be suffering a little bit. Can't see the Italian whitewashing Bedene in this one and the line, for me, is generous. - BRADLEY KLAHN (v Lleyton Hewitt, Delray Beach) @ 2.08 with dafabet Like the look of Klahn as a dog here. Emerging, big-hitting, powerful American who does well in his own country. Appears more steady than most of his counterparts and Hewitt, after his meek loss last week to Russell, has proved that he's still a waning force. New meets old here, and I like the look of new. Good luck to one and all :hope
  10. You guys should lay off Steve. He comes on here every week, giving you his time by writing about a league none of you have a clue about. You should be grateful you get such info for free. I was on Lens -1AH tonight too. For every French football fan, this seemed a good bet. It wasn't. That's fine. Move on. This is why this game is known as gambling. Nothing is certain. Lens were poor tonight; Istres played better than they have for some time. My advice: untwist your knickers, have a glass of wine and move on to your next bet.
  11. Re: July 29 - August 4 A few for me today to keep the wolf from the door. - MARINKO MATOSEVIC (v Dmitry Tursunov, Washington) @ 2.13 with sbobet Surprised to see Tursunov as favourite. He does lead the H2H, but Mato has played well this week and was very solid from the back of the court against Raonic yesterday. Tursunov is making loads of errors, and if the Aussies stays firm, he'll draw them out of him and get the job done. Nice price, I think, on Mato here. - JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO -3 GAMES AH (v Kevin Anderson, Washington) @ 1.80 with sbobet Delpo is in cruise control at the moment. Easily disposed of Harrison and Tomic en route to this match and is evidently playing well. Should have too much for Kev, who is approaching his 12th day of action and has been beaten soundly by men ranked above him recently. Low line on a player in such good form.
  12. Re: Ligue 2 - 2nd - 4th August Three bets for me on opening night. - LE HAVRE 0AH (away at Arles Avignon) @ 2.11 with sbobet Like the look of Mombaerts' men this season. They've only really lost Mendy from the side that finished last season so well. Mesloub, Bonnet and Riviere carry a big goal threat too and their midfield is stable. ACA look average to me and although they don't lose many at home, they are susceptible. Full draw cover essential, but HAC look backable. - METZ -0.5AH (home to Laval) @ 2.00 with sbobet Big chance for les messins to start off life in L2 with a win. Laval look weak - so many changes from the team that has consistently done so well for years in this league. Stade Saint-Symphorien will be buzzing for the first match and in Sakho and Ngbakoto in attack, they have goals in them. Fancy them to start with a win - NIMES -0.5AH (home to Creteil) @ 1.99 with sbobet Nimes are my dark horse for promotion. They've lost Benezet to Evian, but they've strengthened the midfield and still have Gragnic, who scores a lot of their goals. Creteil were promoted last season, but don't have an inspiring squad on paper. I expect them to be better at home. Les crocos for the win again.
  13. Re: July 29 - August 4 Quite a trappy card Stateside tonight. Just the one bet for me: - ATP Washington R2: JOHN ISNER -3.5 GAMES v Alex Kuznetsov @ 1.87 with sbobet Banking on Isner to continue his good form after winning Atlanta, but I think he will. This is his bread and butter, these American hard court events. I feel there's quite a big gulf in class between these two players. Isner's serve is obviously very tough to deal with, but he's quite clinical when he gets chances against his opponent's and Kuznetsov will cough up chances. He played quite a messy match with Bogomolov yesterday and on that form, I don't think he will be able to deal with his compatriot. Handicap is appealing enough for me.
  14. Re: July 29 - August 4 Two bets in Austria for me: - ATP Kitzbuhel R2: DANIEL GIMENO-TRAVER to beat Jan Hajek @ 2.00 with sbobet Recent H2H form suggests that Hajek has the upper hand between these two, but my money is down on DGT here. He was very convincing against Veic in R1 and the way he pushed Wawrinka close in Gstaad last week suggests he enjoys playing at altitude. The Spaniard has a bit more aggression and power in his game and that could be the key, as Kitzbuhel tends to reward more adventurous shot-makers. Hajek's having a decent year, but this might be the right time to go with the Spaniard, who is threatening to click and burst into some form. - ATP Kitzbuhel R2: FERNANDO VERDASCO -4 GAMES AH v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 1.98 with sbobet Two Spaniards clash in this tie and I'm siding with the left-handed one. GGL had a real slugfest with Bellucci yesterday. He served a dozen doubles faults and spurned serving for the match at least once. Although this is Nando's first match of the tournament, he should be too strong for his compatriot. He has hit a decent patch with a nice display at Wimbledon before losing to Delbonis in Hamburg and I'd say he is the more aggressive and more consistent player out of these two. Verdasco leads the H2H 3-1 too and I feel he ought to take this match with a bit to spare.
  15. Re: Ligue 2 Preview 2013/14 Good stuff Steve :ok Might as well add that I'll be trying to post bets up each week too. Been missing writing about le foot francais. However, I won't be doing a preview ... I'll leave that to the expert :clap
  16. Re: July 29 - August 4 Two for tonight in the States: - ATP Washington R2: OVER 22.5 GAMES in Sam Querrey v Denis Istomin @ 1.80 with sbobet Clash between two massive servers with average return games. Querrey hasn't played since Newport and is entitled to be a bit rusty as a result. He does lead the H2H 2-0 and I'd expect him to win in this kind of event against Istomin, but a couple of close sets and a tie-break are very possible, as I can't see either man getting much of a read on serve. I'd have this line at 23 games at least considering the men involved. - ATP Washington R2: BERNARD TOMIC -2.5 GAMES v David Goffin @ 1.86 with sbobet Goffin has undoubtledly hit a winning patch, taking a Challenger title in Istanbul and then defeating Lu yesterday, but Tomic is by far the best player he's faced in that run. Moreover, the Belgian has been serving atrociously - he was broken five times by Lu, yet got over the line because the man from Taipei served worse than him. It's hard to see Tomic being as charitable. Much better server and a better returner than Lu. Goffin has had problems all year on serve, especially with double faults, and now that Tomic has rediscovered a little bit of form and stability since his father's antics in Madrid, he looks a far steadier player. I think he'll be too strong for Goffin, despite losing to him at Wimbledon last year.
  17. Re: July 29 - August 4 Three more in Austria: ATP Kitzbuhel R1: OVER 22 GAMES AH in Robin Haase and Guillaume Rufin @ 1.93 with sbobet Haase has won this title twice and evidently likes it here. However, I'm not sure he's going to have it all his own way against Rufin. The Frenchman is a very unpredictable player. He has spells of sheer brilliance followed by lows. He did win a Challenger event in Oberhausen last week on the clay and that'll give him confidence. These two players are quite streaky and that lends itself to overs. 22 games seems quite low and even though Haase is defending champion, he could find it tough today. ATP Kitzbuhel R1: DANIEL BRANDS +2.5 GAMES v Carlos Berlocq @ 1.97 with sbobet This will be a very tough match for Berlocq. The Argentine bowed out of Umag last week to Zeballos and I fear we may see a wee dip from him after winning Bastad a few weeks ago. Brands is a threat in these conditions, especially if he hits top gear. Massive serve, sledgehammer forehand and quite handy at the net. If he grabs control of the match early on, Berlocq may struggle to contain him. The Argentine is not the best defender either, so I can see him struggling to contain his power. Brands on the plus looks generous. ATP Kitzbuhel R2: LEONARDO MAYER +4 GAMES AH v Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1.85 with sbobet Liking Mayer in this one. Good solid win over De Schepper yesterday and he's up against a man who hasn't played in a few weeks and could be a tad rusty. Mayer actually binned him last year at the French and is another man whose game suits these conditions. PK might ultimately prevail and get the job done - he was runner-up last year here - but Mayer is more than capable of causing him a few problems with his heavy-hitting game.
  18. Re: July 29 - August 4 I'll get this one up early as it starts soon: ATP Kitzbuhel R2: VICTOR HANESCU -2.5 GAMES (v Aljaz Bedene) @ 1.92 with sbobet Hanescu is playing good tennis at the moment, serving well and finding plenty of winners. Lost to Youzhny last week in Gstaad, but that form is franked by the Russian winning the event. Conditions in Austria suit him, as at altitude he gets a bit more pop on his shots. Bedene's form has tailed off a little bit and is transforming from Umag to Kitzbuhel. Conditions in Croatia are very different to Austria, so he may get caught out early on by Hanescu.
  19. Re: July 29 - August 4 Leo hasn't beaten a lefty this year ... he beat Albert Ramos last week, for Christ's sake.
  20. Re: July 15 - July 21 A couple for me today: - ROGER FEDERER -4.5 GAMES (v Federico Del Bonis) @ 1.85 with sbobet Federer has not been at his best this week, but he won't have to be to take care of Delbonis. The young Argentine has done brilliantly well to get this far in Hamburg, but his marathon match with Verdasco yesterday is going to take a lot out of him. Federer will be scenting blood now, the chance to take another title. I fear Delbonis will be fatigued and Federer could well have him on a string for a lot of this match. - KEVIN ANDERSON -2.5 GAMES (v Ivo Karlovic) @ 2.08 with sbobet I watched the whole Karlovic match yesterday and he was dire. He won because he held his nerve better in the breakers. Mannarino got so much joy attacking his backhand, but didn't stay tight at the crucial moment. With Tipsarevic out, Anderson will really fancy his chances in Bogota. He's the consummate professional, wants to win as many titles and money as he can, and generally takes care of weaker opponents. Karlovic does cough up chances, especially on his second serve, and I'd expect Anderson to get a break somewhere along the line and end Ivo's good run. :hope
  21. Re: July 15 - July 21 Think InfectedBoy's post is a good one. You will get some sore losses in this business from time to time ... Monaco today, Federer handicap yesterday, there is always one lurking around. However, in saying that, we all get our fair share of 'flukey' wins, so these things even themselves out. Best thing to do is take it on the chin and move on. You will never get every bet right. Losses are inevitable - you just have to make sure the wins outweigh them. If you are placing five bets per day and you are winning three of them with average odds of 1.75 or above, then you are doing okay.
  22. Re: Europa League 2nd Qual Round - 17th July Rosenborg 0-1 St Johnstone: astonishing result in Norway ... Malmo 2-0 Hibs: watched the whole match, Malmo should have won by an awful lot more. One out of two, but no profit. Genuinely bamboozled by Saints getting a win, let alone not losing, but that's football :eek
  23. Re: July 15 - July 21 Almagro d. Garcia-Lopez 6-2 6-3: saw bits and pieces of this, line was never really in doubt. Federer d. Hajek 6-4 6-3: Fed squandered five set points to seal the handicap; one of those things. Mayer d. Lopez 7-6 6-2: tight first set, but Lopez couldn't deal with Flo in the second. Haas d. Berlocq 6-2 6-4: watched all of this, Berlocq never really got going until 1-5 down in the second ... Verdasco d. Janowicz 7-5 4-0 ret: irritating that Jano retired when the match was almost done, but these things even themselves out over the season. Decent day overall :ok
  24. Re: Europa League 2nd Qual Round - 17th July I think the bookies originally priced this looking at Saints finishing fourth in the SPL last season. Their current squad, for me, will be bottom-six material. They might surprise us - nothing is ever a certainty - but it'll take a herculean effort to bring something back to Perth, IMO.
  25. Re: Europa League 2nd Qual Round - 17th July Two for me tonight. Sadly, I'm opposing the Scottish clubs: - ROSENBORG -1.5AH (v St Johnstone) @ 1.80 with sbobet Not going to pretend I know much about RBK, but, they do have a good Nigerian striker called Chibuike who is quick, a central defender called Reginiuessen who plays for Norway and a decent midfielder called Dockal. In all honesty, this is a bet against. Saints. They have a new manager after Lomas left for Millwall and have promoted his assistant Wright, who has very little managerial experience. They've lost Craig, Davidson, Vine and Tade, four key players from last season's side who contributed 35 goals between them. They haven't been replaced adequately. They'll be defensive in Trondheim and I imagine RBK will want to finish the tie here. Really don't see much hope for the Scots. - MALMO -1.25AH (v Hibernian) @ 1.94 with sbobet Hibs are a better team than St Johnstone, but this is a very tough ask. Malmo are going great guns right now. Top of the Allsvenskan and are loaded with exciting young players. Rantie's pace is going to be a key factor up top, while Halsti, Hamad, Thern and Forsberg are a very cohesive midfield unit. They are also very strong at the Swedbank Arena and don't lose many games. Hibs are going to defend and try to keep the tie alive and that may backfire on them, as Malmo score plenty of goals from distance. Moreover, Hibs are missing McGivern, Mullen, Clancy (all defenders) and Harris (winger), while McPake (captain) isn't fully fit. Perhaps most importantly, Griffiths isn't in the side - he scored 28 goals last season and hasn't had his loan renewed from Wolves. Tough night in Sweden beckons for them. :hope
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