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Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)


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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Roddick gets schooled by Wawrinka. Fortunately' date=' Roddick's body language was quite clear in the 1st set, and I managed to lay him in live betting at 1.63 for Waw[/quote'] Roddick was never gnna win.. look at his form its horrendous so obvious
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

10pts (7/10) N.Almagro (+7.5) to bt. N.Djokovic @ 1.87 at Pinnacle :@:@ 10pts (7/10) T.Berdych (-2.5) to bt. F.Verdasco @ 1.83 at PaddyPower:ok:ok 10pts (5/10) A.Petkovic to bt. M.Sharapova @ 2.61 at Pinnacle:ok:ok 10pts (5/10) Na Li (-3.5) to bt. V.Azarenka @ 2.62 at PaddyPower:ok:ok 10pts (7/10) S.Wawrinka to bt. A.Roddick @ 1.93 at Pinnacle:ok:ok
Nice day, great profit, hope someone followed.
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Sharapova (RUS) vs Petkovic (GER): Petkovic @Pinnacle 2,470 WIN Li-Na (CHN) vs Azarenka (BLR): Li-Na @Pinnacle 1,943 WIN Wozniacki (DEN) vs Sevastova (LAT): Sevastova +6 @Pinnacle 1,769 WIN Berdych (CZE) vs Verdasco (ESP): Berdych -3 @Pinnacle 1,806 WIN Almagro(ESP) vs Djokovic (SRB): Almagro +7.5 @Pinnacle 1,870 LOSS Roddick (USA) vs Wawrinka (SUI): Roddick @Pinnacle 1,990 LOSS
4 out of 6, not bad. Almagro collapsed in the third after missing two re-breakpoints, that's life. Roddick never had a chance, congrats to all Wawa backers. Fortunately, Roddick had LOSS written all over his face in the beginning of the first set, so I managed to revert the loss in this match to some tiny profit at live betting. Thanks the Wawa backers for the early comments that made me more confident :-)
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Hi all thought I would add my thoughts I too have backed Na Li for obvious reasons as she won the previous tournament coming from behind to beat Clijsters so she is obviously playing well she is seeded 9th and has a good draw not meeting anyone with real quality until the quarter finals 4/10 confidence for me toot the 38/1 on betfair with a view to lay of later in the tournament. 3 pts on Na Li - 38/1 - Betfair
Have just layed my stake back at 7/1 so basically have a free bet on Li to win - have over £450 in green on Betfair - what do most people do in this situation? I fancy her to win her quarter final match but the semi and final maybe steps to far? Any advice would be great as often had this position before I wished I had backed her each way at the bookiess rather than on the exchange. What are you doing Fishy25 as you have backed her at 50/1 if I remember rightly?? Joe Mavis
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Have just layed my stake back at 7/1 so basically have a free bet on Li to win - have over £450 in green on Betfair - what do most people do in this situation? I fancy her to win her quarter final match but the semi and final maybe steps to far? Any advice would be great as often had this position before I wished I had backed her each way at the bookiess rather than on the exchange. What are you doing Fishy25 as you have backed her at 50/1 if I remember rightly?? Joe Mavis
Haha I wish I did mate, but bottled it and waited for her draw and by that time she went down to 25/1 so I left it. She does look really good at the minute though, that win last week has given her a ton of confidence. She plays Petkovic tomorrow where naturally I would back Li all day long, but Petkovic really impressed me today against Sharapova. Hit tons of winners that Maria couldn't do anything about. If she wins that she's more than likely going to play Wozniacki which will be the main test. As you've only backed her to win it, not any return for a place in the final, the quarters are usually one stage too early to start laying her. Naturally it would be done in the semis. I'm not the best to give advice on the laying off business as I failed to lay Wozniacki in the US semis where I had her e/w at 9/1, so others would be better to give you their knowledge here. If it were me though and I had backed Li, I would probably have some faith in her to get through to the semi's, then definitely think about laying some of that off certainly. Not too sure if she'll beat Wozniacki. Of course the problem you've got is that she was an outsider, so after this match, she won't be favourite for her semi nor the final. So that's a tricky one, but if I were you I would leave it until the semis. Hope that helps. :ok
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Two for me tonight. Some excellent calls from homunculus and in particular, Czech Punter. Keep it up chaps :ok - David Ferrer -5.5 games AH (vs Milos Raonic) @ 1.833 with Pinnacle (6/10) As much as Raonic has impressed me in this event, I think his time is up. Ferrer is going to be an extremely hard nut to crack for him. The young Canadian has come through well but is all about his big serve and hasn't faced a really adept returner yet. Ferrer falls into that category. I'd put him right up there with the best in terms of reading a serve and once in a rally with Raonic, I can't see the Spaniard failing. He's got the experience and dexterity to move Raonic around and I suspect the Canadian's mentality may start to slip if he falls behind. I can see Ferrer being able to get a break in each set, and if so, then he will have a very good chance of covering the line. He demolished a rising star in Berankis during the last round and I feel he could do the same here. - Robin Soderling -6.5 games AH (vs Alexandr Dolgopolov) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (6/10) I have huge expectations for Dolgopolov but this match comes too soon for him. Soderling is rampant at the moment. He is serving incredibly well and is hitting everything cleanly from the back of the court. He is adopting more aggresive tactics and I feel that will take away Dolgopolov's chance to affect the Swede with his spin. Dolgopolov has been decent on serve but Soderling is in a different league to his previous opponents. I saw chinks in the Ukrainian's serve against Tsonga, where a better player would have punished him. He is still prone to mental errors and against someone like Soderling, it won't be tolerated. Soderling seems like a man on a mission in Melbourne and despite Dolgopolov's decent form, I'm not sure he can stop him, and a -6.5 game line seems within the realms of possibility. :hope

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) 3 for me tonight, hope a good second week is had by all. Milos Raonic vs David Ferrer- Raonic +6.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) As much as I hate going against Atko's picks, (it's like walking into the lion's den) I feel that the Canadian can keep this a fairly tight one. Highly doubt he will repeat the success he had against Youzhny but if he serves how he has done thus far, although Ferrer is incredibly fit and returns a great deal of the balls, some of Raonic's service games are simply unreturnable, and even Murray would struggle. He's won seven matches on the trot now, and along with Tomic, they have been the success stories of the tournament so far and all the talk about him just seems to spur him on to a better performance than the last. Ferrer dispatched Berankis in the last round and will know what to expect in this one. Agree with Atko that in the rallies Ferrer will cleverly move the Canadian about and win a great proportion of the points when a rally occurs. However as I've mentioned Raonic's serve will be key in this one. If he keeps it quick throughout, a couple of tie breaks could occur, which would give the handicap a good shot. One last thing, if we look back at last year, the last major name that Raonic played was Nadal when he only lost 6-4 6-4. If this was against the great Spaniard, no reason to suggest that Raonic won't hold his own. Also took sets of the likes of Cuevas, Andreev and Stakhovsky at the back end of last year. If he could pinch a set early on, things may get interesting. Jurgen Melzer vs Andy Murray- Murray -7.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (5/10) Know a lot of people fancy Melzer to give Murray a match here and to take a set or two, but watching Murray thus far, he has looked very accomplished with some polished performances, showing his determination to try and go one better than last year. Melzer traditionally doesn't have the best times down under and this is his best performance yet. He did well to come back against Baggy in round three, but 44 unforced, 5 double faults and a number of opportunities on his serve suggest that against a top 6 player, the result may have been different. Murray is known for his returning skills and due to that is the kind of player Melzer does struggle against. If there is a only a slight opportunity on serve for Murray, chances are he'll force the errors and take those points more often than not. Murray's won all 4 matches between the two, including 2 grand slam wins, the last coming in Australia a couple of years back where Murray covered the handicap. Decent odds for the Murray handicap and feel he will have his chances to reach it again. In the last 3 meetings, Murray has won at least one set 6-1 or better. Same again and the handicap is well in play. Rafael Nadal vs Marin Cilic- Cilic +7.5 handicap- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) The handicap is a little lower with a skinnier price so happy to back the Croatian here. As has been mentioned previously in the forum, Nadal looks to be struggling with his virus that hit him a couple of weeks ago in Doha, and we saw there how he was a long way shy of his best. Being bagelled in one set by Lacko then getting beaten by Davydenko, it was horrible to watch if your a Nadal fan. He hasn't been tested thus far which is probably fortunate for the Spaniard as he can get some additional rest. However, Cilic is the kind of player who won't roll over just because it's Rafa. Big serve and powerful strokes will make Rafa run around a bit and not have things all his own way. Cilic served a ton of aces in his epic match against Isner and perhaps was a tad lucky to come through it. Due to this, he won't be completely 100% I can't imagine which Rafa will be glad of. Even when Rafa is firing, he sometime does have a tendancy to struggle against the more powerful players. Mentioned he only beat Raonic 6-4 6-4 last year, but the likes of Kohlscreiber and Karlovic took sets off him this time last year. Cilic is a better player when he's on song than those two and if he serves like he can, he may get some success here. For an ill Rafa, to win by more than 8 games is a tough ask against someone who will get cheap points on his serve. Especially as Tomic was 3-0 up in the third set the other day, shows Nadal can be vulnerable. Cilic incidentally won their only meeting back in 09 in straight sets as well so he will take heart out of that. Would still favour Nadal just because he's Nadal, but shouldn't be a walkover by any means. A set to Cilic could well bring the handicap in.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Will probably have plays on the two morning matches too later on. But I like the card a lot (like yesterday). Hopefully I can continue yesterday's run.:hope:hope 10pts (6/10) V.Zvonareva/I.Benesova Under 18.5 games @ 1.87 at Pinnacle I think this is a big step up in quality and that Benesova will have huge problems now. She was playing well so far and fair play to her, but Zvonareva beat her 6-0 6-3 in the AO last year and Benesova has not improved that much to cover the line. She will struggle to live with Vera, who is better in every department. 10pts (6/10) P.Kvitova (-2.5) to bt. F.Pennetta @ 1.81 at Pinnacle Kvitova is playing in great form at the moment, just demolishing her opponents easily. Stosur was not enough to stop her, Pennetta should not be enough too. Kvitova has too much power for Pennetta in my opinion and the only worry is consistency. However, she good in all her matches, so I think she can continue the run here. 10pts (6/10) D.Ferrer (-5.5) to bt. Milos Raonic @ 1.87 at Pinnacle One of the best returners in the world should do the job here. Raonic had to come through the qualies and that may come to haunt him physically, as Ferrer will make him chase a lot and I am not sure he can rise up to the task yet. Ferrer is as fresh as ever and I think Raonic will suffer a lot. 10pts (6/10) R.Soderling/A.Dolgopolov Over 33.5 games @ 1.90 at Pinnacle Hate to go against a fellow punter and I am not sure whether the overs are better than the handicap or not. But I think that Dolgopolov may well take something from this match, perhaps a set. Soderling was impressive so far, but he played only poor opponents. Now comes a harder test. Dolgopolov is a talented guy and he will not let his mind slip I think. I have seen Soderling against Hernych and he was making a lot of errors in my opinion. Hernych, of course, could not punish him, but Dolgopolov can. 10pts (6/10) J.Melzer/A.Murray Over 34 games @ 1.87 at Pinnacle Like with Dolgopolov, not sure about the handicap. But Melzer is a tough nut to crack and he is playing well at the moment. He had a great year yesterday and he has the game to trouble the favorites. Murray will win in the end, but it may stay close all the way. This is a step up in quality for both players and Melzer should be too good to go down in flames.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Sport Tennis
Event Shuai Peng v Agnieszka Radwanska
Selection Radwanska (-3) GH (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 24/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 2.00
Reasoning Well, clear difference in expreience between these two players, Agnieszka Radwanska is much more experienced player than Shuai Peng who even didn't looked in a special form here at AO. Shuai Peng defeated Jankovic and Bondarenko, two difficult players, but have to mentionate that both of them didn't played at their best level. Shuai Peng also defetaed in her last game Morita, a young new player quite talented but who still lacks a lot of experience. With other words Shuai Peng is not a really difficult opponent and I'm sure that Agnieszka Radwanska knows very well how she has to play against a player like Peng. Agnieszka Radwanska's deffesnive skills are great, she is the type of player that can play very stable from the defence. Peng should try to go for the winners, but I doubt that she will be able to beat such a great defence like Agnieszka Radwanska's once. All in all, Radwanska is clear the better player here and the game should be in her hands. Good Luck!
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Guys (and girls), I need your views and help please. I have a rather fruity multiple which is nearing conclusion. In short I put together a couple of horses @ 9/2 and 11/4, a football bet @ 8/13, a golf bet at 8/15 which have all copped. My two final legs are from the Aussie Open hence my pleas to all you knowledgeable sorts. I have Clijsters and Nadal to win outright at 5/4 and 6/4 respectively. The two bets are a £2 acca and 5folds for £1.50. So a minimal outlay but it returns just over £1500. But what to do? Do I just start backing against them now in their respective matches? Or is that just wasting money at the moment? Can Cilic beat Nadal? Do I wait another round and then take stock again? Or do I just stick a chunk on a few dangers, ie Djokovic, Murray and Federer? And in the ladies Wozniaki and Zvonareva. I am leaning towards sitting tight for the moment but would love the opinion of the experts.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) zvonaereva versus benesova under 18.5 games 5-6 pinnacle. 2 points benesova played excellent against pavlyuchenkova...she hit the ball deep consistentantly but it has to be said pavlyuchenkova made a lot of unforced errors and in any case is over-rated. zvonareva is a huge step up in class for benesova....benesova's serve isn't so big so zvonareva will always have a look in and i just expect her to be better than benesova in every department of the game, as czech punter also stated zvonareva hammered benesova at the australian open last year. Also, i don't think radwanska will cover the handicap against peng. she played excellently against halep...but halep put up a very tame challenge.....peng is at her most vulnerable against powerful players who will put her on the backfoot from tha start and make her run... but radwanska isn't this type of player....yes, there is no doubt she is more talented than peng and has some of the best feel in the women's game....but peng is a good fighter..and actually if this match does get close...i fancy peng to have more bottle. it cannot be forgotten that peng beat radwanska in the US open last year just a few months ago...and i don't see why she can't do the same again here against a player who has had a very cushy draw so far. i can see the match going two ways...either radwanska wins easy or peng wins a tight match and i believe the latter is the more likely outcome.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Haha I wish I did mate' date=' but bottled it and waited for her draw and by that time she went down to 25/1 so I left it. She does look really good at the minute though, that win last week has given her a ton of confidence. She plays Petkovic tomorrow where naturally I would back Li all day long, but Petkovic really impressed me today against Sharapova. Hit tons of winners that Maria couldn't do anything about. If she wins that she's more than likely going to play Wozniacki which will be the main test. As you've only backed her to win it, not any return for a place in the final, the quarters are usually one stage too early to start laying her. Naturally it would be done in the semis. I'm not the best to give advice on the laying off business as I failed to lay Wozniacki in the US semis where I had her e/w at 9/1, so others would be better to give you their knowledge here. If it were me though and I had backed Li, I would probably have some faith in her to get through to the semi's, then definitely think about laying some of that off certainly. Not too sure if she'll beat Wozniacki. Of course the problem you've got is that she was an outsider, so after this match, she won't be favourite for her semi nor the final. So that's a tricky one, but if I were you I would leave it until the semis. Hope that helps. :ok[/quote'] Thanks for advice I have laid my stake back so basically have not lost any money on this bet I will see what happens in the quarters and if Li wins and a few of the favs get beat I will maybe look to lay another chunk off to secure profit would be great if Wozza gets beat as reckon Li would be around 3/1 outright then. Once again thanks for your input its a nice position to be in and would imagine if she does get through the next round would be able to lock in at least a £50 profit and still leave a nice chunk on her for the outright - fingers crossed eh!!
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Guys (and girls), I need your views and help please. I have a rather fruity multiple which is nearing conclusion. In short I put together a couple of horses @ 9/2 and 11/4, a football bet @ 8/13, a golf bet at 8/15 which have all copped. My two final legs are from the Aussie Open hence my pleas to all you knowledgeable sorts. I have Clijsters and Nadal to win outright at 5/4 and 6/4 respectively. The two bets are a £2 acca and 5folds for £1.50. So a minimal outlay but it returns just over £1500. But what to do? Do I just start backing against them now in their lock in a respective matches? Or is that just wasting money at the moment? Can Cilic beat Nadal? Do I wait another round and then take stock again? Or do I just stick a chunk on a few dangers, ie Djokovic, Murray and Federer? And in the ladies Wozniaki and Zvonareva. I am leaning towards sitting tight for the moment but would love the opinion of the experts.
Hi there I would get on the exchange and start laying the arse out of Nadal and Clijsters as I reckon you could lock in an easy £500 profit and if your acca does come in you still win a grand not bad for a £5 bet either way - reckon one of them will get beat sooner or later - but thats just my thought. Joe
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hi guys i have posted a few bets on this forum and i have been unsucessful in nearly all of them except the henin kuznetsova match and the almagro djokovic one as well also i have been sucessful in predicting the score for the first set that was one of the first bets i posted on this forum since then i have lost more than i have won im more of a beginner not like you guys who are more like experts and you really look like you know what you are doing i have been following all your bets and i have been really impressed on the ones you have won i just want to know if there is any tips on how to win more than i lose i know you should watch lot of tennis but i dont have eurosport so i cant watch every match also the matches are on late so cant watch it anyway i like betting in this grand slam more than others so could you please post some advice i would be really appreciate it thanks

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Hi guys i have posted a few bets on this forum and i have been unsucessful in nearly all of them except the henin kuznetsova match and the almagro djokovic match as well also i have been sucessful in predicting the score for the first set that was one of the first bets i posted on this forum since then i have lost more than i have won im more of a beginner than like you guys your more like experts and like you know what you are doing i have been following all your bets and i have been really impressed on the ones you have won i just want to know if there is any tips on how to win more than i lose i know you should watch lot of tennis but i dont have eurosport so i cant watch every match also the matches are on late so cant watch it anyway i like betting in this grand slam more than others so could you please post some advice i would be really appreciate it thanks
Sadly not otherwise we'd all be very rich indeed. That's why people call it a mugs game as your always going to lose from time to time, for most, more than they win. I would say just analyse the match up and the form that both players involved are in and hope for some luck some of the time. Nothing more I can say really.
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Watch the matches, you can find live streams on the net for free - if you cannot watch it, you may want to wait until other tournaments you can watch. Stop betting on correct set scores, you will not find much success there (most probably). Analyze the games, then look at what the guys here think. If you have any questions, ask. Someone is probably going to answer (yep, we are pretty active here). And yeah, success is hard at the beginning. But as you get more experience, it will get better.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Dolgopolov +6.5 @ 2.15 Pinnacle Soderling covered this line in all three matches so far in Melborune but on the other hand he hasn't played Dolgopolov or any other player of similar class. Starace, Muller and Hernych are after all not the top class material and Sod therefor had no problems beating them. However, Dolgopolov has beaten Kukushkin, Becker and Tsonga and plays in his best form ever. It's importaant to say though that Tsonga obviously had some problems with his hips which were troubling him in his movement and especially his forehand shots. Still, Ukrainian has a nice solid serve which will be hard to break even for a top class returner like Soderling. Imho, swede will win this of course, but there is a big possibility that he'll drop a set, and even if he doesn't he'll still hardly cover this very high line. GL Under 34 (Murray vs Melzer) @ 2.04 Pinnacle This will be over in 3 sets probably and thats why im taking this bet. Murray showed some impressive tennis here, this slower hard surface suits him perfectly and he's crushing his opponents from the baseline and also serves like a maniac. Okay, we can say that his opponents were fairly poor but in general Muzza presented top class tennis. Melzer also quite solid lately but this match is not about him, it's only about Murray. Melzer has lost all 4 h2h matches and the last defeat was on last years AO with impressive 75 60 63. Murray will win this quite comfortably. GL

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Thanks for the reply Joe...i am torn between doing that and getting everyone in the book or taking the view that if it isnt Nadal then it should surely only be one of Murray, Djokovic or Federer. On Betfair Murray and Djokovic are basically 8's and Fed a touch over 2's. I am thinking of basically putting £150 on Murray and Djokovic. If Federer makes the final and is up against RAfa then I can just lay NAdal at odds on, if RF happens to be up against Murray then I can either back him or lay Muzza, either way should be able to trade a profitable position. The ladies I think is slightly easier, should only be Wozniaki, Clijsters or Zvonareva. I think I'll just back Zvonareva on Betfair at 9's and see what happens. If Kim beats her in the semis and is up against Wozniaki then I can just lay Clijsters, if it is a Zvonareva/Woz final then i can either back the latter or lay former.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Hi there I would get on the exchange and start laying the arse out of Nadal and Clijsters as I reckon you could lock in an easy £500 profit and if your acca does come in you still win a grand not bad for a £5 bet either way - reckon one of them will get beat sooner or later - but thats just my thought. Joe
+1:ok
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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) First tennis bet on here :hope Soderling v Dolgopolov - Dolgopolov to win the first set and lose the match (5/1 Bet365) Soderling has yet to drop a set in 2011, hence the odds, but he was very slow to get going against Henrych and would have most probably lost the set if he'd been up against a better opponent. He found his form in the next set and looked in good nick, especially with his serve. Dolgopolov has earnt most of us alot of money so far (as ive been following most of atkos tips :D) but Soderling should have too much for him here and should continue to the next round. However i am going to take this bet in the hope Soderling starts a little sluggish like in his previous and Dolgopolov takes advantage early on

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) DOGOPOLOV to beat Soderling 11/2 bet365 Soderling has been in decent form so far but hasnt been tested by weak opponents. Dolgolov " 11/2 looks a great price, he is in great form & anyone who beats Tsgonga shudnt be that price to win a match, he also beat Querrey 2 weeks ago so aint scared of the big players.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I have gone for bet of 4 possible winners of their quarters Marin Cilic 14/1 Kim Clijsters 1/6 Vera Zvonareva 4/7 Robin Soderling 7/4 i have done a multiple so if two players win their quarters i still win money i think cilic could beat nadal then could meet ferrer i think clijsters is easy because cant see anyone beating her zvonareva should reach the semis and soderling if he gets through meets murray who he can beat what does everyone else think

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Thank you, there are indeed a lot of good guys here. Anyway, to the point. If you can get odds about 2.00 and above, it may be worth a shot. However, it is by no means a guarantee. It may be perhaps better to see who will serve first and then bet accordingly if the odds do not drop too much. If Melzer starts serving, it should go over 9.5. I do not like this type of bet too much, to be honest. The first set may always go off the track, especially since this is a long format and one player may not get into the groove early on. If you think that Melzer can mount a challenge, then I would advise the overs bet I mentioned here before. That, in my opinion, is more sensible than your bet. But by all means go with your instinct. I would go for the overs though.

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