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Atko

Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

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The first Slam is upon us. 128 men and women look to battle it out for the honours. For men, it's a best of five sets format. For women, it's best of three. All matches are played on a plexicushion hard court outdoors. Good luck to all that play :ok

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Let's try and keep the tips for the qualifiers in this week's thread. I don't want to divert traffic away from there. This one can be used for outrights and then the main draw.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Tiny bit of advice from me, if taking some players on the outright, might want to wait until friday's draw so you can predict their path to the final. That's what I'm doing, but have a couple in mind so far but due to their seeds, could get a horrible draw.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Couple of early ones for me for the Oz Open. Karlovic vs Dodig OVER 38.5 games @ 1.80 (Bet365:4pts). Karlovic returned to action after injury in Doha, won 2 matches vs Rosol and Kohli and every set was a tie-break before Davydenko schooled him. Dont think the 5 set format suits Karlovic at all and alot of his matches tend to be drawn out. Dodig did OK last year reaching round 2 in 3 of the slams and ended the year in decent form reaching 1/4's at Stockholm and winning a challenger event(both indoor hard). He doesnt have the best of results on outdoor hard, he's a pretty average player overall but I think he can hang with Karlovic here on serve and even win a set, hopefully take it over the line. Vinci (to bt Molik) x Stakhovsky (to bt Brands) @ 1.773 (Bet365:3pts) Molik playing like she's semi-retired these days. Her end of year form was very poor and no signs of that improving now. She was schooled 6-1 6-0 by Errani last week and thats not a good result against someone who is not great on hard surface....but Errani is consistent on the ground and that was enough to draw errors from Molik.Vinci is a capable player, had a good second half to the season and reached 1/4's in Hobart this week before running into in-form Groth....think she can move Molik around, change the pace up with her slices and draw enough errors from her. One winner here for me. Also fancy Stakhovsky to beat Brands. Neither has done well here in the past but I think Stakhovsky is getting better all the time.....won a few titles last year and although he switched off after the US Open he started this year with a 1/4 in Sydney losing to Gulbis but got good wins over GGL and Becker. Brands IMO is a mug, has done little on hard surface....basically all serve and no brain. 2 matches so far this year he lost to Kubot in Brisbane and Greul in Sydney, both in 2 sets....poor poor results. Hopefully Stakh is up for this, great chance to progress for him. Also has a 2-0 h2h lead over Brands. GL!

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Couple of early ones for me for the Oz Open. Karlovic vs Dodig OVER 38.5 games @ 1.80 (Bet365:4pts). Karlovic returned to action after injury in Doha, won 2 matches vs Rosol and Kohli and every set was a tie-break before Davydenko schooled him. Dont think the 5 set format suits Karlovic at all and alot of his matches tend to be drawn out. Dodig did OK last year reaching round 2 in 3 of the slams and ended the year in decent form reaching 1/4's at Stockholm and winning a challenger event(both indoor hard). He doesnt have the best of results on outdoor hard, he's a pretty average player overall but I think he can hang with Karlovic here on serve and even win a set, hopefully take it over the line. Vinci (to bt Molik) x Stakhovsky (to bt Brands) @ 1.773 (Bet365:3pts) Molik playing like she's semi-retired these days. Her end of year form was very poor and no signs of that improving now. She was schooled 6-1 6-0 by Errani last week and thats not a good result against someone who is not great on hard surface....but Errani is consistent on the ground and that was enough to draw errors from Molik.Vinci is a capable player, had a good second half to the season and reached 1/4's in Hobart this week before running into in-form Groth....think she can move Molik around, change the pace up with her slices and draw enough errors from her. One winner here for me. Also fancy Stakhovsky to beat Brands. Neither has done well here in the past but I think Stakhovsky is getting better all the time.....won a few titles last year and although he switched off after the US Open he started this year with a 1/4 in Sydney losing to Gulbis but got good wins over GGL and Becker. Brands IMO is a mug, has done little on hard surface....basically all serve and no brain. 2 matches so far this year he lost to Kubot in Brisbane and Greul in Sydney, both in 2 sets....poor poor results. Hopefully Stakh is up for this, great chance to progress for him. Also has a 2-0 h2h lead over Brands. GL!
Totally agree with you on these bets...make a lot of sense1 cheers for the comment about chan btw. what do you think of the draws in general

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Womens draw looks very open I think. I'm sure there's some value to be got there....Wozniacki, Kuznetsova, Sharapova and many others are off form so it's anyones guess. Have to think Clijsters will go far but I dont think she's a cert to get to the semi/final like Federer or Nadal. She also has Kleybanova, Petrova and Ivanovic in her quarter so tricky enough though I'd make her fave definitely. The men's should be the usual suspects again. Happy to see Murray get a tough draw...Soderling, Nadal and then Fed possibly if he wants to win this. Tough. Some good first round matches.........Hewitt vs Nalbandian stands out definitely.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) yeah, that match looks like a cracker11 hopefully they will roll back the years...i actually think hewitt looks like value at 11-8....but nalby in full flow plays more beautiful tennis than federer i reckon ...so will probably stay away from it. yeah, i reckon it will either be kim or justine. i have a wee bet on kvitova at 350-1....so you never know. so why you happy that murray has a tough draw

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Was considering taking Li at 50-1 before the Clijsters match and before the draw was made. She's actually got a decent draw and if she plays well could easily reach the semis or better but she's down to 25-1. Although I feel she has a chance, and feel Federer will get to the final at least, will hold back on the outrights and just concentrate on the individual matches.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) (Ivan Ljubicic - Peter Luzcak) Over 33.5 games x (Barbara Zahlavova-Strycova - Aravana Rezai) Over 21.5 games x (Jelena Jankovic - Alla Kudryavtseva) Over 21.5 games @ 5-1 (BET 365) Strength 4/10 Early tester to see whether I've got my eye in, so to speak ;) Ivan Ljubicic is seems to have marathons early doors in nearly every Grand Slam, and often comes a cropper in them as well. Here he is up against Peter Luzcak, a wily old veteran that has a very solid game that serves him well against everyone but the real top echelons. Last year at Wimbledon he knocked out Tommy Robredo in the first round so he has no complex nor does he crumble. This is a dead cert to cover the line IMO. The two girly matches are likely to cover the line of 21.5 as well. Rezai has been living off her French Open exploits for a while and the only player of note she has beaten recently is Jankovic, a player in similar decline. Strycova is a mediocre campaigner but she's got a decent all round game and battles hard, so even if Rezai blows her off court for spells, she'll hang in there and take advantage of Rezai's flaky nature. This should result in a closely fought match. Jelena Jankovic is an awful form and this is a bet against her reallly. She's losing to everyone and the end of season break doesn't seem to have relighten her fire. Kudryavtseva is another bang average customer but again, like Zahlavova-Strycova, can hang in there against good players, especially ones so out of form like Jelena. Jankovic's relative consistency should guard against her getting smashed by Kudryavtseva so everything points to a match which go either way, and likely to be long as a result. GL! :ok

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Not sure Chela should be 6/4 against Llodra, he's never done much at the Australian Open and on outdoor hard I'd say this is a close match. Could be an upset there.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Kaia Kanepi (Rybarikova) x Ilya Marchenko(Ramirez-Hildago) x Sergei Stakhovsky(Daniel Brands) @ 6/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) All things being equal, which is admittedly a rare thing in tennis, this should be pretty straightforward for all favourites concerned. Kanepi appeared to make strides towards the end of the season, beating lot of good players and seemingly maturing as a player. She should deal pretty comfortably with Rybarikova, who is probably one of the worst top 100 players around. Slightly concering loss last week but Jovanovski is on the up, so still pretty confident. Ilya Marchenko should get the job done against journeyman Hildago, who is basically a clay courter. He has the game for hard courts and took care of players like Hildago with ease last year. No reason to think he can't this time either. IAG has already laid the case for Stakhovsky above, and it mirrors my thoughts. The Ukrainian is a level above Brands, he had a reasonable amount of success on hard courts in the US summer, and should have too much for the one dimensional German, who also seems to be in very poor form as well. GL! :ok

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Just wondering.... I'm a big follower of the 'other sports' thread especially Golf, Cricket and Darts e.t.c One thing I have noticed about Tennis threads is the lack of Outright picks, now thats not a criticism, you guys are very knowledgable and tip what you do very well, but I rarely see Outrights for tournaments, was hoping to follow a few for the slams this year but none about. Is there a reason you guys don't tip outrights? Is it harder in tennis than other seeded draw events like darts or snooker e.t.c cheers in advance :ok

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Just wondering.... I'm a big follower of the 'other sports' thread especially Golf, Cricket and Darts e.t.c One thing I have noticed about Tennis threads is the lack of Outright picks, now thats not a criticism, you guys are very knowledgable and tip what you do very well, but I rarely see Outrights for tournaments, was hoping to follow a few for the slams this year but none about. Is there a reason you guys don't tip outrights? Is it harder in tennis than other seeded draw events like darts or snooker e.t.c cheers in advance :ok
Hey Perry, good to see you in the tennis thread as I know how well you guys get on in the darts and cricket especially. Tricky one to answer IMO. There are some outrights from time to time, know Atko picked two outright winners last week. With regards to the men, it's always likely to be between the main two, Rafa and Roger, but their odds are slim reflecting their dominance in the game. Last time I checked, both were less than 2/1 for the outright bet, which although it is a high possibility that one or the other will win, taking any player without gurarantee at that price is too slim for me, may be different for the others. Alternatively, many wouldn't bet on anybody else for the outright due to the dominance of the top two any IMO it is hard to look past Roger for the grand slam. Women is slightly more open. Know Clijsters is clear favourite but you often see that all the girls can beat eachother. Predicting the women's game is very tricky as I've found this week as the results are so topsy-turvy and things you wouldn't expect happen. No better example than the supposedly untouchable Clijsters letting her lead slip yesterday, and that was in a final. If you were taking an outright though, there are things you can consider which certainly wouldn't decrease the chances of the outright coming through. My two big things to consider would be the draw and form. Sounds obvious but this requires a lot of thought and again some prediction in itself. If you fancy a player, you can draw up their potential 'en route to final' list, which would specify their likely opponents. For example, if you wanted to take someone like Murray, his draw is very tough unfortunately. Wished that he had a pretty nice draw, but due to his slip down to world number 5, he is likely to have to play Soderling and Del Porto, and if he gets past this, Rafa in the semis, which is very tough. However, if this is kind and favourable to your selected player, and a decent price is given, it may be worth a shot. Also, form on the hard courts at the start of this season and also last season, is a necessity to consider. Chances are the player would have had a good start to the season, like Federer has had. Just a few things that hold me back from the outrights. Hope it helps but there may be some picks from others that you may find that you want to follow. Hope this was at least slightly helpful though. :)

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Nah, I do not think there is a specific reason. Atko does some outrights on regular tournaments, smegmaniac sometimes mentions them too. I do not think it is harder, but with so much going on basically every day, you do not usually think about them at all. Saying that, I have two outrights here if you want something to follow for small stakes. 5pts EW (1,2 1/2) Justine Henin to win the AO 2011 @ 6.00 at WilliamHill This looks as the best bet in women's for me. She has a very easy quarter in my opinion with no big threat there. Wozniacki is the number one seed, but she is a solid underdog against Henin in my opinion. So that should be quite easy. In the semis, which is the thing that the EW part relies on, she will most probably meet one of these - Williams/Sharapova/Azarenka/Na Li. And is she an underdog to any one of these? I do not think so. Williams is of course a threat, but she has not played for a long time and I would rate her as the underdog in that possible match. She has a 7-2 record over Henin, but the last one was won by Henin and she is younger and looks better than Venus does now. The odds are solid enough for me. 3pts EW (1,2 1/2) Robin Soderling to win the AO 2011 @ 17.00 at Bet365 Soderling has shown the best stuff so far this year, except for Roger, who is not in his half anyway, so that does not bother me much. Nadal is in questionable health, Murray is not great in long matches and can well break down at some point. These odds are simply too huge for me for player that is consistenly among the very best and has a reliable serve. The two problems here are Murray and Nadal - and if you had to take the odds against them combined, you would not get to 17. Value for me

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Cheers for the replies. What is your max bet Czech? 5pts ew = 10 pts total... That's a max bet for me! Maybe you use a different scale? Cheers

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Cheers for the replies. What is your max bet Czech? 5pts ew = 10 pts total... That's a max bet for me! Maybe you use a different scale? Cheers
Sorry mate, forgot to add the confidence there. On the traditional scale, Henin would be 2.5pts EW (I really like the bet, so 5pts in total, although you may not want to stake so much if you want it more "for the fun of it"). Soderling is obviously lower, 0.5pts EW - 1pt in total. Edit: Just to clarify, Soderling is more of a "try" bet, while I have spent some time thinking about Henin even before the draw was made. And the draw made me quite happy, so I staked a little bit more.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Checked the match odds today and I was quite surprised by some, so here we go with four bets to start. Let's hope for a great AO 2011! GL everyone! :hope 10pts (7/10) L.Hewitt to bt. D.Nalbandian @ 2.18 at Pinnacle I cannot see past Hewitt here, Nalbandian was crushed by Ferrer (something I could not see happening, but it has happened). He is not the best player around based on fitness and Hewitt has a good form going into this (even though it was just an exhibition). He loves playing at home, will play until the last point and I fancy him to win that at odds against. Must play for me. 10pts (4/10) T.Kamke to bt. P.Kohlschreiber @ 4.00 at Pinnacle The odds are crazy on this one. How the heck is he a 4.00 shot? I even dare to question whether Kohlschreiber can last for five sets. Kamke is a huge improving talent and he has pushed Ferrer nicely in the last tournament. Definitely played better than Kohlschreiber in Auckland. Fair odds for me are much lower, Kohli is the favorite, but 4.00 is simply value. For one, he has always taken a set off Kohli in their two meetings last year - and Kohlschreiber has certainly not improved since then, while Kamke has. 10pts (7/10) E.Schwank to bt. L.Mayer @ 1.80 at Pinnacle This will be a truly horrible match to watch, but the odds are good enough so I will go through the horror. Mayer has not played since the US Open. And yes, that is a huge problem if you have to play a best-of-five sets match. Both have lost like a million matches in a row, but one has to win here and Schwank seems to be the favorite for me. I would not say he is better, but I would say he is less poor. 10pts (7/10) K.Date to bt. A.Radwanska @ 2.29 at Pinnacle I know she is quite old, I know she has lost both matches this year. But she is still fit and she has at least played this year. Returning after a pause is always hard and I am not sure it is a good choice to return straight to a Grand Slam. I would have Kimiko as the slight favorite, as an underdog I rate this as a value bet. Not playing for some time cannot help Radwanska in any way.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Looking forward to the Aussie Open, hopefully two great weeks of tennis. Just an observation i have my doubts about Wozniacki doing well. She just switched the rackets she uses from Babolat to Yonex having used Babolat since the start of her career, questionable decision since she got to No.1 using Babolat no doubt the Yonex offer must have been significantly better. She hasn't had a good build up to the Aussie Open and may take awhile to get accustomed to the racket change. Djokovic changed racket sponsors a few years back and it took awhile for him to start playing to his best again. Verdasco has not been playing well since he dropped Tecnifibre for Dunlop and last year for a long period of time he was using a Tecnifibre painted to look like a Dunlop racket, he has since switched to a Dunlop one but has been absolute pants so far this year. A bit technical but proof that switching rackets doesn't produce results straight away. Wozzi faces Dulko in the 1st round might a tricky one, even if she does pull it off i don't see her going far in the tournament.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Completely agree in that point - it may be the tennis equipment, it may be something else, but I cannot see her getting into the semis. Henin should dominate the quarter and even if Wozniacki gets past her few opponents (which are relatively weak thanks to her seeding), I cannot see her style getting much against Justine.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) iveta benesova to beat anabel medina garrigues at 4-5 pinnacle 2 points benesova is a steady player that sometimes goes unnoticed as sure as day she never makes a big runs in big tournaments and so never grabs any headlines and therefore is rarely over-rated. She is no worldbeater... but she's a solid ballstriker when she finds her rhythm. She plays anabel medina garrigues who is just happy to be back on court after a long injury break and will hardly have much expectations for the australian open. She has started the season poorly only winning 4 games against george in auckland and then a poor loss to voegele in qualifying for sydney. She's always been a confidence player who needs matches and rhytm to play her best tennis. I just feel benesova is physically and mentally more prepared to win this one.she startede the season fairly well...with a win over hercog and then taking a set off bartoli and she generally does well in australia...she hasn't lost a first round match in melbourne since 2007. I think the reason the odds are so close is because medina has a 3-1 win-loss record against benesova and medina simply has a better reputatio...and i think if medina was back to her best she is a better player...but she's been a while out of the game and judging by her results on returning she is nowhere near the level that she was. Benesova should have enough guile to win this one.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) belluci,tsonga and wawrinka treble at 8-11 boylesports. Belluci never makes it easy for himself but i expect him to have enough firepower and winning instinct to get past brazilian counterpart ricardo mello. he beat russell and robredo last week before losing comfortably to giraldo in auckland. mello is a veteran who plays his best tennis on clay and doesn't have any hard court results of note for years. there's a class difference here. wawrinka is playing gabashvili and after winning in chennai a week ago he will be full of confidence and have way too much power and guile for gabashvili who has improved over the last season or so but still lacks the consistency needed to beat the big guns. tsonga plays petschner who under normal circumstances could be a dangerous opponent.however, he is in poor form and tsonga simply loves australia . he played fairly well in doha last week and looks fresh and motivated for another deep run. can't see him slip up

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Checked the match odds today and I was quite surprised by some, so here we go with four bets to start. Let's hope for a great AO 2011! GL everyone! :hope 10pts (7/10) L.Hewitt to bt. D.Nalbandian @ 2.18 at Pinnacle I cannot see past Hewitt here, Nalbandian was crushed by Ferrer (something I could not see happening, but it has happened). He is not the best player around based on fitness and Hewitt has a good form going into this (even though it was just an exhibition). He loves playing at home, will play until the last point and I fancy him to win that at odds against. Must play for me. 10pts (4/10) T.Kamke to bt. P.Kohlschreiber @ 4.00 at Pinnacle The odds are crazy on this one. How the heck is he a 4.00 shot? I even dare to question whether Kohlschreiber can last for five sets. Kamke is a huge improving talent and he has pushed Ferrer nicely in the last tournament. Definitely played better than Kohlschreiber in Auckland. Fair odds for me are much lower, Kohli is the favorite, but 4.00 is simply value. For one, he has always taken a set off Kohli in their two meetings last year - and Kohlschreiber has certainly not improved since then, while Kamke has. 10pts (7/10) E.Schwank to bt. L.Mayer @ 1.80 at Pinnacle This will be a truly horrible match to watch, but the odds are good enough so I will go through the horror. Mayer has not played since the US Open. And yes, that is a huge problem if you have to play a best-of-five sets match. Both have lost like a million matches in a row, but one has to win here and Schwank seems to be the favorite for me. I would not say he is better, but I would say he is less poor. 10pts (7/10) K.Date to bt. A.Radwanska @ 2.29 at Pinnacle I know she is quite old, I know she has lost both matches this year. But she is still fit and she has at least played this year. Returning after a pause is always hard and I am not sure it is a good choice to return straight to a Grand Slam. I would have Kimiko as the slight favorite, as an underdog I rate this as a value bet. Not playing for some time cannot help Radwanska in any way.
Just wondering why you are putting the same size bets on, even though you are less confident on some. Surely you should be putting a smaller stake on Tamke than Hewitt as you are less confident of the win?

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Actually, I am really putting the same size bets on. I have turned down the stakes overall a little for the start of the year, but I am trialling flat-staking for now and it is working nicely so far, so I am sticking to it for a little bit longer to see how it performs over the long run. But since most people here do not use flat stakes, I am always adding confidence to my bets for those that prefer it.

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