Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Andy Murray to win Aus Open @ $9.00 sportingbet 8/10 again this is way overpriced just like the Shanghai final where murray tore federer apart. Imho backing Fed at $2.80 is -EV and asking for trouble, his game can actually be very error strewn and i would not back him. Nadal is very good price and has a very good chance of winning, love his mentality, but i figure Andy has an easy quarter and the winner of Murray vs nadal should win the tournament. andy wont be $9.00 when playing nadal so imo this is great value. The most promising thing is no one is talking him up this year, for example last night was as clinical as it gets but no one is getting carried away, andy seems very relaxed and with the form hes in should breeze through his quarter, playing nadal in a quarter or semi is a much bigger chance than beating him in a big final (as he really does find that next level). GGl will cause him no troubles , cant see baggy or Melzer doing much and soda has a woeful record here in aus, definitely should not be $9 but it just shows you he is flying under the radar, no one expects anything big from Murray in a slam, just after a great ashes victory , this might be another moral victory the pommies can claim.

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Justine Henin vs Svetlana Kuznetsova overs 21.5 games 10/11 skybet i think this could be the match of the tournament two evenly matched players who should provide a great match

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Just saw 2 bets totally disappear. Ljubicic wasted 3 set points against Almagro in the second set, which would have totally turned his match around. Nicalescu couldn't take the second set against Schiavone, despite being 5-2 up, then coming back to serve for the set at 6-5. Feel okay about that overs bet, but was let down by Nicalescu not showing up for the first set, then bottling the second!

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeah Ljubo bottled it and looks done now. Needed to take his break points in the first set to give him the momentum.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeah, on balance, he wouldn't have had to do much to beat Almagro, but he's managed to go down in straight sets. I'm more annoyed with Niculescu tbh. She should not have lost that second set. Losing the break first of all is bad, but after breaking to go 6-5 up, she should have taken that set. It's a shame that Schiavone is likely to play Henin in the next round, as against anyone lese there'd be a good opportunity to oppose the Italian, but against Henin there won't be value.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Nice, Henin is bottling my outrights :unsure Totally different than at Hopman Cup. There, she was consistent and, at times, brilliant. Here, she makes millions of unforced errors, tons of double faults, does not chase shots, etc. Really poor performance. Even if she pulls through in the end, I do not fancy her against Wozniacki. Clijsters to take it now. It is quite interesting, though. Clijsters, Henin (sometimes) and Williams are basically a level above the rest of the competition, even though they do not play that much. I cannot imagine Federer taking time off and then winning Grand Slams right away (which Clijsters did basically). He would be beaten not only by Nadal, but also by Djokovic and Murray (and perhaps a few others). Here, Zvonareva and Wozniacki are quite poor in comparison to Clijsters or Williams. By the way, can someone explain what is going on with all those medical timeouts and "fake" injuries? Haase looked like dead and then took the first set, Kuznetsova needed a treatment and there was no change in her performance, Verdasco with his ankle against Tipsarevic, Baghdatis needing a timeout against Del Potro despite being apparently OK. Seriously, what the heck? If there is an injury, fine. But in some cases, it really is a little bit suspicious.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Not Williams, or Henin IMO, only Clijsters. Williams is vulnerable most times I see her and doesn't play regularly enough to be up there with Clijsters. With the men, it's obviously Fed and Rafa, with Djoko, Murry and Soderling just behind. With the women, it's dominated by Clijsters only, who is on another level to the rest.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Ok, I may give you that. But the thing is, if Fed/Rafa/Djoko take a break, they will have a rather tough time getting back, because it is so tight up there. With women, there is no such thing - anyone can win really. Take last Wimbledon, for example. Kvitova? Pironkova? That is like Granollers reaching the semis - crazy stuff. Edit: Lol. Everyone was calling Henin's backhand the best in the game. She broke back and then fired about 3 backhands and one forehand into the net. Henin having 33 unforced errors in two sets? Classic stuff.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Well think it would be fair to say that although you'd expect the same names to win the trophies for the men, it is certainly more competitive than the women's game. Think this is shown by how many different female players hammer their opponents by the scores of 6-1 6-2 or worse. Although Nadal has done the equivalent of this, you wouldn't expect the top 10 players all to do this like most do in the WTA. Take tonight for example, Roddick, ranked 8 and Haase is outside the top 50. In the women's game, highly unlikely that the top 8 player would lose a set so comfortably.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Two answers in my opinion - mindsets (Nadal always wants big wins, women find it hard to come back from behind) and serve. Meanwhile, Henin takes it to the TB. And starts with another double fault (seven or eight now).

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Troicki vs Djokovic over 36.5 games @Pinnacle 1.885 VOID Scheepers vs Azarenka: Scheepers +7 games AH @Pinnacle 2,180 WIN

Nice profit today. I must give some credit to Azarenka. I have not seen her so low on unforced errors for ages. She once might be a really good player :D

[Fizruhas]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) David Ferrer - Ricardas Berankis Over 36 games 1.8@triobet! Lithuanian have been impressive lately, he finnaly made into a top 100 and improving a lot, destroyed last mach Nalby, i expect him to win at least a set, that will probably give an over, by the way, it could go over with close three sets too, but Berankis very capable for something in this one for sure, so Over pick for me looks very very good! :ok

[Fizruhas]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) John Isner - Marin Cilic | Over 42.5 1.7@triobet! Two big servers here, complete service game, could be a tie-break festival :D Marin is a slight fav here, but it could go either way with unpredictable John, so i will try to take an over here! :ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Haase +7 games AH over Roddick @ 1.725 (Pinnacle:6pts)

WIN Waiting on Youzhny to hopefully complete a double with Berdy who cruised.

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Superb match so far between Wawrinka & Monfils.

[cesc_777]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeh if your on Wawrinka :dude

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

- Stanislas Wawrinka (vs Gael Monfils) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (7/10) WIN - Sergiy Stakhovsky (vs Tommy Robredo) @ 2.00 with Stan James (6/10) LOSS - Roger Federer -8 games AH (vs Xavier Malisse) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (6/10) WIN

Wawrinka, as expected, took full advantage of Monfils' concentration powers that resemble a goldfish. Monfils may be able to play like that against the small fry but when the top 20 sharks come along, he's bait. Stakhovsky came apart at the seams after the first set, although Robredo played well. Federer was always in control against Malisse, and the handicap was nicely covered. Like IAG and a few others, Berdych also did the business for me, but the second half of that bet goes tonight. Good profit again today. As always, well done to all winners :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Nice day indeed. Had 3 out of 4 basically, so a nice profit with only Ljubicic failing to make it. Credit to Georges though, when Sharapova lead 4-0 up in the last set, I was giving up on her, but she did her best and pushed back to make that handicap win. By the way, that Williams-Petkovic was quite a struggle. :D

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Berdych opened at 1.585 vs Verdasco, bookies are smart. Was hoping for 1.7-1.80 there. Wawrinka opened around 2.2-2.30 vs Roddick but I refreshed the page a minute later and he was 2.00. Fancy Stan there as Roddick is playing too passive atm.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

A. Sevastova & M.Sharapova double @2.35 Ivan Ljubicic to beat Nicolas Almagro @1.91 Sergey Stakhovsky to beat Tommy Robredo @1.73 Na Li (-5.5 games) @1.91 Schiavone v Nicalescu - Over 20.5 Games @1.91

2 wins 3 losses Still really annoyed about the Schiavone pick. The other two were always going to be quite close and maybe the odds didn't justify the picks.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Wawrinka' date=' as expected, took full advantage of Monfils' concentration powers that resemble a goldfish. Monfils may be able to play like that against the small fry but when the top 20 sharks come along, he's bait. Stakhovsky came apart at the seams after the first set, although Robredo played well. Federer was always in control against Malisse, and the handicap was nicely covered. Like IAG and a few others, Berdych also did the business for me, but the second half of that bet goes tonight. Good profit again today. As always, well done to all winners :ok[/quote'] good stuff Atko, follwed you on the federer handicap...initially i thought it was about right but ya convinced me! you seem to be havinmg a very good first week!!!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Any leans for tonight Smeg?? Cant see much value in the mens anyway, maybe Dolgopolov in some capacity. Looking through the womens now. You were right on Schiavone btw....she hit around 1.60 before that one. I was put off by her display against Marino but as you said new day, new opponent...Marino is all power whereas Niculescu totally different.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Agreeing with most of what's been said and taking four myself. Tomas Berdych vs Richard Gasquet- Berdych -4.5 handicap - 4/5 Bet365- (6/10) Simply have to fancy the Czech here over a much indifferent Frenchman. Gasquet's form cannot be ignored here. He recently lost to a lesser opponent in Phau, as well as dropping a set to Seppi. His opponents in the slam would have been a dream for him tbh. A guy ranked outside the top 200, and a youngster who is still developing and has played a ton of games recently. Despite this, he didn't blow either of them off the court in any of the sets, and if young Mannarino took the tie break a couple of days ago, he may well have gone on and took the match. He will have to play a couple of levels above this standard if he is to trouble Berdych today. The Czech is now vastly experienced in going into the second week of the slams after his final loss to Nadal at Wimbledon, and his semi show at the French Open. He came on leaps and bounds and shows he can now mix it with the big boys, beating the likes of Federer and Roddick last year in big tournaments. He played some good stuff against Kohli in the last round and I would arguably say Gasquet isn't a better opponent than the German atm. Berdych is likely to want to make amends for his early exits 12 months ago and also against Llodra in the US open. The H2H stands at 2-1 to the Frenchman but more relevantly, their only recent meeting last year Berdych won at the expence of 2 games in Monte-Carlo. Only way that Gasquet will have a chance is if Berdych hits wildly and Gasquet ups his level. Can't see if happening and fancy Berdych, even if Gasquet nicks a tight set, to cover the handicap. Andy Roddick vs Robin Haase- Haase +6.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Fancy the Dutchman to keep this relatively close. He's made the step up from challenger level to the big boys at the start of this season with some good results. Taking sets of Wawrinka and Isner, whilst beating Monaco and Cuevas have given him some confidence and he shouldn't fear Roddick today IMO. He's quick around the court with a big serve and that will certainly give Roddick something to think about. Last year, players with a good first serve gave Roddick problems. The likes of Cilic, Fish and Ljubicic beating him whilst Anderson took a set off him in Brisbane a couple of weeks back. Always feel when watching Roddick now, in a long rally, I'm never confident that he will win the rally unlike the other top 7 players. If Haase gets his game going early, he should be able to force a tie break or to, and maybe even pinch a set. Tommy Robredo vs Sergiy Stakhovsky- Stakhovsky -1.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (5/10) Annoyed I didn't take Stakhovsky for the outright when the prices were out yesterday as you could have got above evens. However, the handicap is low enough so if he does take the match, he should cover it. Simply cannot favour Tommy here, after his two previous matches and his show in Auckland the week before. He needed a tight 3 set win over Devvarman, a 4 setter against Fish who hasn't practiced and who hammered him in the first set, whilst in the Kiwi Land, Venus managed to take a set off him and he lost to Bellucci. Stakhovsky on the other hand came into this week off the back of victories against Becker and GGL, two very different opponents who would have tested different parts of the Ukranian's game. Two comfortable straight set wins over Brands and Kubot as well so he should be mightily fresh for tonight. Robredo's form just means he cannot be backed IMO. Lasy year he went through spells of hot and cold and although he has managed to win his last two, think Stakhovsky will be the 2nd Ukranian through to round 4. H2H is 1-1, both played on the hard courts last year, but these were played when Robredo was playing better tennis than he is now. Fancy Stakhovsky here, and hopefully alongside this, the marginal handicap. Nicolas Almagro vs Ivan Ljubicic- Ljubicic -1.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Like Stakhovsky, annoyed I didn't take Ljubicic early and would have got a better price for the outright which is annoying. Like the Ukranian though, if he wins the match, the handicap should go hand in hand. There's still some fitness concerns over Ljubicic but Almagro is hardly likely to be fresh out the packet either. Extremely lucky to get past Andreev, who to put it bluntly, fcuked it up in the fourth. But Almagro also dropped a set against Robert in the match before which is in truth really poor for a top 20 player to do. Ljubicic is serving very well though, and this should cause Almagro all sorts of problems as he won't be able to get into any sort of routine or gain any consistent rhythm. Ljubicic leads the H2H 3-1 as well, which will give him some extra confidence, as he's won the last 2 on Almagro's favoured clay, so he will know how to beat him. Will probably be a tight one, with shifts in momentum, but just giving the edge to Ivan here.

WIN WIN LOSS LOSS Virtually broke even. Really thought Stakhovsky would push on after the first set but wasn't to be.

[martinhattrick]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Ljubicic vs Almagro ov. 40.5 games (5pts) 1.943 at pinnacle This match has over written in it´s name IMO. Ljubicic is a well known bomber, a very tough man to be broken. However, his return game in not very effective so 1 or maybe 2 tiebreaks could be played here. On the other hand Almagro is a messy player that can hit incredible shots and the next point make the most silly unforced error. He needed to go to the 5th set to defeat a poor form Andreev and i don´t see him defeating ljubo easyly. However he is a real fighter and will give his very best effort, wheter he is playing his best tennis or not, but he won´t stop fighting that is for sure. I can see here a 4 or 5 sets match and maybe a couple of tiebreaks so i´ll go for the over... GL:hope

LOSS Ljubo could not take any of the 1st set break points and, what could have been really important, he failed to win the 3 set points he had in the 2nd set tiebreak (2 with his serve). Ih he had taken the 2nd set, i might be celebrating some winnings but.. it happens...

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

good stuff Atko' date=' follwed you on the federer handicap...initially i thought it was about right but ya convinced me! you seem to be havinmg a very good first week!!![/quote'] Glad you were on board, smeg. It has been a very good first week, more losers than last week but making around an 8pt profit on average each day - just hitting more matches. Always good to have a loser on occasion as it focuses the mind. Don't think I'm the only one though - there are few here (IAG in particular) who are making good profit. Long may it continue :ok

[Forlan]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Garcia Lopez to take one set @2,60 local bookie I take this cause Spaniard plays good and have a chance to take one set or more... A.Radwanska h1 minus 4,5 @2,00 local bookie She is in good form and plays with brain and I hope she will do that,no h2h record.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Murray vs Garcia-Lopez: Garcia-Lopez +7.5 hcp @Pinnacle 2.210 Unbelievable price for unbelievably high hcp. Well, Andy is really tough player, especially on hard, but on this tournament he is yet to meet some real opponents. Beck and Marchenko certainly did not test his qualities. GGL is experienced player with couple of good results from last year (won Bangkok where he did beat Nadal, finalist in Eastbourne, QF in Shanghai). Sure he is capable of making something like 4-6 4-6 3-6 or better against Andy. Makarova to beat Petrova @Pinnacle 2.350 I am happy to take Makarova as an underdog here. Considering that, while H2H is 2:2, the last two matches between these were won by Makarova (2010 and 2009), and that Petrova has shown nothing this year so far (being ousted both in Sydney and Brisbane in round 1), and that beating Pervak ranked 96 and Molik ranked 134 in this tournament did not alter this status, and that Makarova is apparently in superb form as she sent packing Anna Ivanovic, I just must accept such a generous offer. GL :hope

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Right let's try and get a full house today. Robin Soderling vs Jan Hernych- Under 27.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) This is hardly likely to be a 5 set thriller, and Soderling should romp to victory here. Hernych had an epic with Bellucci and admitted that he was completely shattered and would need a miracle to put up a fight today. Hernych only just got through his first qualifier last week, and although wins over Istomin and Bellucci are good results for the Czech, Soderling will dominate all areas of the game. Soderling has won 8 on the spin now and is playing close to his best which just underlines the class difference between the two. Would be suprised if Robin doesn't wrap this up in much over an hour/hour and a half. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Dolgopolov +3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Not too much I can add to what Atko has already said earlier on in the forum. I've backed the Ukranian so far and taken him again here. Tsonga, against Seppi went missing for the latter end of the second set but due to Seppi's incompetence and idiocrisy, he allowed Tsonga to break him and take it to a tie break, which the Frenchman ultimately won. Seppi was complaining about the crowd which made him lose focus, and if he hadn't have done this, he would have served the set out and maybe gone on from there. Dolgopolov has matured and come on leaps and bounds in the last year and he won't let up like Seppi did. He is serving extremely well, hitting plenty of aces in his matches, whilst his return game, which will be so important against Tsonga, is working well as he broke big serving Becker on numerous occasions in the last round. Dolgopolov has a fair chance of taking the match IMO, but the handicap gives some extra security if he loses a close 5 setter like he did at Wimbledon last year, in their only meeting. He covered the handicap there, hopefully he'll do the same tonight. Lucie Safarova vs Vera Zvonareva- Zvonareva -5.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) Not a fan of taking women's handicaps after Kleybanova's poor show the other day but feel the number 2 seed should cover this one. Safarova has endured two 3 setters in her previous rounds, against opponents much weaker than the Russian. Interestingly enough, Safarova's last 7 matches have all gone to 3 sets but don't see Zvonareva hanging about. She won in 3 against a tricky Jovanovski, and hammered Bammer in the first round after a dodgy start. With Henin and Williams out, Wozniacki looking vulnerable and Clijsters going missing for parts of her matches, Vera will feel this is her best chance yet to win a slam and she'll be looking to impress and get her matches done in a quick and routine fashion. She's already beaten Williams, Clijsters and Wozniacki this year, expect her to get through here by winning at least 6 more games than her opponent. Flavia Pennetta vs Shahar Peer- Peer to win- 11/10 Bet365- (4/10) Here it comes. Saw IAG mentioned this one and I have to agree that Peer shouldn't be the underdog here. Considered taking her with a handicap in the last round but didn't but she's clearly in good form and repeating her good performances that served her well in Flushing Meadows last year. Peer has won both her matches comfortably in straight sets, but she continues to impress through her on court attitude. Last match, Cirstea had a mental breakdown on court and needed a time out. So often we see in the women's game that this will affect both players but not Peer. She stayed focused and relaxed and when they started again, she continued to play her normal game and won. Pennetta has also won her matches easily but I still feel she is slightly vulnerable and still finding her feet again after her injury towards the end of last season. She recently lost to Jovanovski and if her fitness isn't completely there yet, and it perhaps went to 3 sets, the counter-punch style of Peer will trouble the Italian. Peer has come on and is now a familiar face in the top 15/20. Clever shot selections, not afraid to come to the net and can serve some aces now. She's won the last 2 on hard between them, both last year, and she's worth a shot here at above evens. Taken one round 4 match as well early. Andrea Petkovic vs Maria Sharapova- Petkovic to win- 11/8 Bet365- (4/10) Odds have since dropped on this one so happy I got in when I did. This bet is slightly for Petkovic, but mainly against Sharapova. Maria is still struggling with her serve big time, and from that she loses momentum and her confidence in the rallies. She just came through against Goerges in 3, but still had 11 double faults and still prone to errors. Mentioned it before in the forum, whenever she has a second serve, you always feel it's going to be a double with her shoulder holding her game back all the time. One of the main reasons why she was so dominant was because of her serve and without that, she does really struggle. Petkovic is certainly no mug, reaching the fourth round at the US open last year, and making the final in Brisbane a couple of weeks back. Bit fortunate with Williams being forced to retire after just 6 minutes, but even if Venus was fit, I wouldn't rule Petkovic out from taking it anyway. Only meeting was last year when Sharapova won easily, but that was when the German was losing against very average opponents and even Safina no less. Since then she's winning matches again and gained her confidence back. She won't let Sharapova settle when they play and will force her into errors. Good price and hopefully it will pay dividends.

[superhero87]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I agree with you fishy one this one Pennetta - Peer @ 2.1 Peer won the last two matches against Pennetta, and is an equal contestant against Pennetta. The quotes are too good.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) A lot of bets of me again after a pretty successful day. All underdogs it seems. 10pts (6/10) G.Garcia-Lopez (+7.5) to bt. Andy Murray @ 2.19 at Pinnacle Murray has been great so far, but this is the first real test and I do not expect him to win too comfortably. Garcia-Lopez is one of those underdogs worth backing - he plays solid tennis and Murray is still quite prone to mistakes if something goes a little bit wrong. This handicap is too big - the handicap was 8 games between Federer and Malisse and there is no way there is such difference between these two players. 10pts (6/10) M.Raonic (+4.5) to bt. M.Youzhny @ 1.93 at Pinnacle Worth taking at these odds. Youzhny let his concentration down big time in the last match and the difference between Kavcic and Raonic is serve. Kavcic has an average one, Raonic has a great one. I think this may well go to a few tie-breaks or that Raonic can even take a set off the Russian. He is playing on confidence and is quite talented. 10pts (5/10) A. Dolgopolov to bt. J.Tsonga @ 2.52 at Pinnacle Tsonga was really unconvincing in both of his matches. He is making tons of unforced errors and a Seppi should have taken a set or two off him if he was not poor himself. Dolgopolov can deal with his serve and his unconventional style will cause Tsonga some problems. They had an epic last year at Wimbledon - and Dolgopolov improved since then, so I believe he can go all the way this time. 10pts (5/10) I.Benesova (+4.5) to bt. A.Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.02 at Pinnacle Benesova has found some nice form lately and had tough opponents and came through quite comfortable. She is serving well, which was always an issue with her. Pavlyuchenkova did not cover his handicap against Flipkens and I think Benesova will not be an easy opponent. 4.5 games is a nice handicap and I think Iveta can cover this, if not even win the match. 10pts (5/10) P.Kvitova (+3.5) to bt. S.Stosur @ 2.11 at Pinnacle Kvitova beat Stosur in the one meeting and it was a rout (6-2,6-1). Obviously, I do not expect such a scoreline today, but I think this match will be pretty close and I cannot see Stosur winning this comfortably. Kvitova has the power to fire through her and to win some easy points on serve. The crowd will be against her, but she is now a solid all-round player and, most importantly, she is in great form this year.