Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Real edge of your seat entertainment

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I wouldn't get too bothered by it. Those are only three matches, everyone gets unlucky sometimes. You do also have to remember that one of the reasons these players are looking like value underdogs to you is because: A - They are capable of playing well B - Their opponents are capable of not turning up/making mistakes The same is, therefore, true of their opponents, who are, inevitably, higher ranked players and, theoretically, not as inclined to those mistakes/more able to win crucial points. I'm not trying to be down on your picks, they have been great so far, as have everyone else's here (bar mine!) but I think you need to have a little perspective and not get carried away with three bets just hitting the net cord (as it were). Alternatively, post the three games you fancy upsets in tonight and we can all take the overs and handicaps? ;)

Excellent post, couldn't have put it better myself.

[Lahrio]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) How many Match points/Break point chances did Hewitt have? Was it over 100? :\

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Jim Courier accuses of Nalbandian of taking performancing enhancing drugs :lol

[otherside]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

How many Match points/Break point chances did Hewitt have? Was it over 100? :\

Break Point Conversions: Nalby 6 of 12 = 50 % Hewitt 7 of 30 = 23 % and only 2 match points for hewitt though... Anyway the best match so far with happy end for me :dude

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hi guys, 2 picks for AUSTRALIAN OPEN: ATP MAYER TO NISHIKORI @ 1.51 on pinnaclesports WTA SHARAPOVA TO RAZZANO @ 1.34 on pinnaclesports Nishikori is a very talented young player with great aggressive baseline game but Mayer is more consistent overall, and more powerful on serve. He had a lot of injury problems in the last 2-3 years but when healthy he is a veryy solid player on all surfaces. Sharapova should be considered a top 10 (may be top 5) player still. She is always at her best playing grand slams and her form in the first round against Tanasugarn was good. Razzano is just an average player.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) For what it's worth, the bets I like today are: Tomas Berdych (-5.5) @2.00 - Pinnacle Berdych always brings his A game to the Grand Slams and he won his first match with ease. I don't really rate Kohlschreiber and Kamke should have beaten him on Monday, after taking the first 2 sets 6-4, 6-1 but just fell aparat a bit. The German has been losing to top 50 guys recently: Bellucci, Chela, Melzer, Ferrer and I think Berdych, on hard courts, is better than all of them. I'm expecting a comfortable win for the Czech. Kunitsyn (+9) @2.25 - Pinnancle I'd fancy Nadal on a (-9) handicap and in some cases, Djokovic, but can Roddick be taken with confidence to beat it? The American did against Hajek in the first round, but I think sometimes he can be guilty of just doing enough in sets. I'd love to see a tie-break in this one, but realistically I'd be looking for Kunitsyn to keep it close in the first and second and fall apart in the third. He only needs 9 games. Sergey Stakhovsky (-3.5) @1.885 - Pinnnacle Stakhovsky should have no problems against Lukas Kubot, who I think is being over-rated because of his win over Sam Querrey. Querrey's been poor for ages and he's gone out in the first round in the last 3 years in Melbourne, so beating him isn't anything special. Stakhovsky could do with a run in a Grand Slam to cement himself as a top 50 player, which I think he definitely is, based on ability. He easily beat Brands in the last round and I think he'll beat Kubot by a few sets. I also like Troicki (-6.5) against Mahut and Almagro (-3.5) against Andreev. Plus I think Fish should beat Robredo, but I'll need to look more into those games, then reconsider my final selections.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Wouldn't touch Fish/Robredo to be honest. Actually if I rated Robredo at all I'd back him but bookies rate it as 50:50 and I cant see any value in either price.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Jim Courier accuses of Nalbandian of taking performancing enhancing drugs :lol

He was taking some sort of pills from the coach. I do not know what that was about, but I do not think it was performance enhancing. He was getting cramps at the end of the match, but Hewitt handed him the match.

[LAMPS]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) hey guys, just looking at the Nando - Tipsarevic match up. I don't know why Tipsarevic is the dog, he has better form before the tournament and looked very solid in round 1. Nando is the more "brand name" but lets face it he beat an old really declined player but literally not much else, not for a while. Also the h2h is in the Serb's favour including a win in the AO in 2008. This could go deep i appreciate that but for me the value is with Tipsarevic and not Nando. Thoughts?

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

hey guys, just looking at the Nando - Tipsarevic match up. I don't know why Tipsarevic is the dog, he has better form before the tournament and looked very solid in round 1. Nando is the more "brand name" but lets face it he beat an old really declined player but literally not much else, not for a while. Also the h2h is in the Serb's favour including a win in the AO in 2008. This could go deep i appreciate that but for me the value is with Tipsarevic and not Nando. Thoughts?

Tipsa should take it. I can't see Nando winning even if he has put up some good stuff before. I get a feeling that it could go either way though so I think I'll stay away.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Looking at the Troicki match again and I think the value is maybe on the under 37 line @2.060 The -6.5 is one that could well come in, but if it does, the chances are that it's in a straight sets win for Troicki. If not, it needs something special in four sets. I know that happened in Troicki's 6-2, 6-2, 3-6, 6-0 win over Tursunov, but if, for examply, the Russian had managed to take another 2 games in the final set, we'd have seen the under in comfortably, but the handicap would have missed. The other, perhaps more likely, scenario is that Troicki wins in straight sets, but at least one goes to a tie-break, in which case, again the under 37 is the best option. Also managing to talk myself out of Kunitsyn (+9) - don't think it's worth.....

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

hey guys, just looking at the Nando - Tipsarevic match up. I don't know why Tipsarevic is the dog, he has better form before the tournament and looked very solid in round 1. Nando is the more "brand name" but lets face it he beat an old really declined player but literally not much else, not for a while. Also the h2h is in the Serb's favour including a win in the AO in 2008. This could go deep i appreciate that but for me the value is with Tipsarevic and not Nando. Thoughts?

Tipsarevic (+2.5) @2.070 at Pinnacle looks alright, although my pick would be tie-break played @1.72 with Bet365. Verdasco loves playing tie-breaks (which is strange given his tendency to bottle them) and in his three matches prior to the AO, he had 4 of them. Tipsa less inclined, but he played one with Monfils (another tie-break banker) in the Davis Cup and in three matches with Nando, he's had three breakers, including two that he won (Verdasco rubbish in tie-breaks!) in their meeting in Melbourne in 2008.

[martinhattrick]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Del Potro -5 Vs. Sela (5 pts) 2.02 at pinnacle This is a very good price in my opinion. Del Potro is a way better player even when he is not playing in his best level. He has proven he is willing to fight (defeating Lopez 6/7 7/6 7/6 last week). Then he lost to mayer but the german is playing very well and delpo might have suffered the lack of rest between matches. After taking a break, i´m sure he won´t have problems defeating sela, a player that can´t serve at all and is worse in every single shot than the argentinian. Delpo might not be prepeared to play many matches in a row since he has played very few matches in the last year, but i don´t think he will have any problem here in 1st round. It should also be considered that Del Potro really likes playing Grand Slam events and has defeated players like Nadal and Federer in this kind of tourneys, while sela has not done anything at all compared to the argie. Fingers crossed my friends, it is good to be back! :hope

Bad luck in this one. But at least not lost. Delpo was a break un in the 1st set and served 5/2 for the second set. At least he won and as a fellow argentine it makes me happy...

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) One more to add to my double earlier... - Mardy Fish (vs Tommy Robredo) @ 1.96 with 188bet (6/10) Think the odds are too generous on Fish here. Robredo is not the player he used to be. Looking at his last nine months, he's played wretchedly and has been beaten by a number of average players. Bellucci showed him up in Auckland and he lost a set to Venus too. Win over Devvarman was expected because the Indian is as bad as Robredo is at present. Fish showed a lot of guts to take out Hanescu in the last round and will be buoyed after that. He is arguably at the peak of his career and seems motivated and fit, something that was lacking from his game a few years ago. He has the serve to get cheap points, something Robredo doesn't have, and is more consistent and aggresive than his opponent. They both know each other well - Robredo leads the H2H 4-3 - but most of their meetings were around 2008, when Robredo was a lot better than now. Fish has improved, has become more stable and solid, while Robredo is a flakier version of himself. Robredo might nick a set but Fish looks the call here. :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Time to hit the frustration town once more. Will tone down the stakes in real life a little bit, my heart is weak :D. 10pts (6/10) N.Almagro (-3.5) to bt. I.Andreev @ 1.86 at Pinnacle Almagro is playing a level above Andreev at the moment and that is it for me in regards to this pic. Andreev was pretty poor at the end of the year and not much has changed this year. Almagro seems to struggle against better players a lot, but he usually takes care of the weaker ones, especially in tournaments he actually cares about. 10pts (6/10) J.Tipsarevic to bt. F.Verdasco @ 2.35 at Pinnacle I see a lot of value in this. Verdasco has not been convincing for a long time and he has not done anything great this year so far either. The match with Monfils in the exhibition was a prime example - Monfils was just defending from the back of the court and Verdasco was still unable to close it out and lost. Tipsarevic is, like the other Serbians, full of confidence and he was good in Chennai in my opinion. I also fancy him over the longer distance, Verdasco still has something with his foot apparently. 10pts (6/10) T.Robredo to bt. M.Fish @ 1.91 at Pinnacle As much as I share the opinions of people in the forums about Robredo, Fish is not well. He said he is not fit and that spent a lot of time just trying to get some rest before the match with Hanescu. It was a tough one, but if his health problems continue, Robredo will take this one with experience. Not a guarantee by any means, but the price makes me take this Sadly there is no real underdog I like :D

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) If you want to back Fish, be wary of the fact that he is being tested for mono or a similar virus. He has apparently barely practiced and felt quite bad prior to the match with Hanescu.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Really don't see any that stand out today. Considering Fish outright, and a few handicaps but nothing looks great. Will have another look but will sit tonight out I thin. Good luck all who play though.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) victoria azarenka versus hlavackova minus 17.5 games at 4-6 with bet365 3 points. Azarenka over the years has developed a reputation for being ruthless in the early rounds of slams and i don't see any reason why she can't race through this match and still afford to lose 5 games. she hammered woerle in the first round, who is an average opponent but in decent form seeing as she came through qualification. Hlavackova was just very lucky to get possibly the easiest draw in the open against patricia mayr and she just came through it in 2 tight sets. Azarenka is a huge step up in class for her.Hlavackova is very very limited and there are far better players outside the top 100 than her...but i guess she was just very consistant at challenger level last week. Already this year she has been on the end of bad losses to razzano, who in fairness is coming into form, but she also had a horrible loss to alison riske in auckland where she just won 3 games. Last season as well any time she stepped it up to main tour level she was regulalru given hidings. Azarenka looks fresh and motivated and i expect her to be her usual ruthless self and take care of hlavackova without any fuss

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

victoria azarenka versus hlavackova minus 17.5 games at 4-6 with bet365 3 points. Azarenka over the years has developed a reputation for being ruthless in the early rounds of slams and i don't see any reason why she can't race through this match and still afford to lose 5 games. she hammered woerle in the first round, who is an average opponent but in decent form seeing as she came through qualification. Hlavackova was just very lucky to get possibly the easiest draw in the open against patricia mayr and she just came through it in 2 tight sets. Azarenka is a huge step up in class for her.Hlavackova is very very limited and there are far better players outside the top 100 than her...but i guess she was just very consistant at challenger level last week. Already this year she has been on the end of bad losses to razzano, who in fairness is coming into form, but she also had a horrible loss to alison riske in auckland where she just won 3 games. Last season as well any time she stepped it up to main tour level she was regulalru given hidings. Azarenka looks fresh and motivated and i expect her to be her usual ruthless self and take care of hlavackova without any fuss

For sure mate. Azarenka can usually bulldoze these weak opponents in the early rounds and this will be no different. As you say Hlavackova couldnt have asked for an easier first round match and that was not plain sailing either. I can see her getting bagelled in one of the sets here and although certain bookies have the line at 16.5 which is achievable too I think I'll go with yourself on the safer line at 17.5 at the shorter price. 6-3 6-2 covers it and I think even that score would take an average display from Azarenka here. Azarenka/Hlavackova UNDER 17.5 games @ 4/6 (Bet365:5pts) Mate what you think about Scheepers vs Kulikova? Cant work out the prices there.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) well... to be honest i think kulikova will win but i agree that the price is way to short.....if that's what you are thinking....they're might be value on scheepers with a handicap but i think it's best left alone. In fairness kulikova has been very unlucky with injurys but she has quite a big game, and beating hantuchova in the first round is more impressive than scheepers effort of beating a well out-of-form karolina sprem in the first round. Although, i know hantuchova is in poor form also. I'd say it's best left alone though...but if ya put a gun to my head i think kulikova. By the way, by any chance did you see my tip of kleybanova minus 6.5 games against falconi. She won 6-0,6-1 and i was as happy as larry. Until, i checked my account this morning and realised that i had backed the opposite handicap by accident..... I DON'T THINK I'LL EVER BE THE SAME AGAIN.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Really unlucky on Kleybanova, you called it perfectly aswell. Yeah you're probably right about Kulikova, I'd have her as fave aswell just was surprised to see Scheepers +5 handicap...seems way too big. Dont think I've seen Kulikova in about a year so best left alone probably.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Stanislav Wawrinka -5.5 games (versus Gregor Dimitrov) x OVER 38.5 GAMES (Sergiy Stakhovsky-Lukasz Kubot) @ 5/2 (BET 365) Strength (4/10) Stanislav Wawrinka should have enough about him to cover the handicap here. He seems to have become more consistent in the last year or so and less likely to fall asleep mid-match. His three set win against Gabashvilli in the first round is a good example of him staying strong against a dangerous opponent. Here he comes up against talented youngster Dimitrov, who blew away a woefully out of form Golubev, but he'll find it alot harder against the Swiss, who should win this pretty comfortably in a score like 7-5 6-4 7-5, at worst. Sergiy Stakhovsky and Lukasz Kubot will have a marathon here IMO, or at least four very tight sets. Kubot leads the head to head 2-0 and the surface probably suits him more than Stakhovsky, but in terms of career progression Kubot is on the slide while Stakhovsky is improving all the time. Both these factors should result in a very closely contested scrap. GL! :hope

[otherside]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) What do you guys think about dokic vs. zahlavova strycova? Australian tennis player is able to play quite good in front of home crowd and there is quite nice value on her. ~2.35

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sharapova vs Razzano OVER 19.5 games @ 1.840 (Pinnacle:5pts) I still think Sharapova is a bit of a mess tbh.Her performances in Auckland weren't good at all, getting crushed by Arn in 2 sets...improvement against Tanasugarn but she has little to really get at Maria, no serve and she still broke her 3 times aswell as Sharapova serving 10 double faults.Razzano is a decent player, needed 3 sets to beat Vesnina in rd 1 but she should provide a sterner test here. Mannarino +6AH over Gasquet @ 2.050 (Pinnacle:5pts) Dangerous one for Gasquet here IMO....don't think he's in the type of form to be covering big handicaps...OK he had games to spare against Dancevic who was awful but still remained competitive in that loss. Mannarino on the other hand is in the form of his life, crushed Harrison in round 1 and I think can at least win a set here which would give the handicap a chance. Definite value IMO. Gasquet did lose to Phau a few weeks back so I'm not sure he's trustable right now at short prices. Wozniacki vs King OVER 17.5 games @ 1.926 (Pinnacle:3pts)

OK Wozniacki is clearly the superior player here and I expect her to win but considering her form I think the line might be a tad low here. She was schooled by Cibulkova in Sydney and came through 6-3 6-4 against out of form Dulko in rd 1 here, and Dulko did have other break chances which she failed to convert. King started the year in decent form, I thought she'd lose to Paszek in rd 1 but she dominated that one despite losing the first set breaker. Of course top players can steamroll her at times but its not the worst match-up for King as she can be quite crafty, she'll cme forward and try to finish points quickly...if she can keep the errors low then I fancy her to cover this line. They played once last year at Indian Wells and Wozniacki took it in 3 sets 5-7 6-2 6-4.

GL!

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Sharapova vs Razzano OVER 19.5 games @ 1.840 (Pinnacle:5pts) I still think Sharapova is a bit of a mess tbh.Her performances in Auckland weren't good at all, getting crushed by Arn in 2 sets...improvement against Tanasugarn but she has little to really get at Maria, no serve and she still broke her 3 times aswell as Sharapova serving 10 double faults.Razzano is a decent player, needed 3 sets to beat Vesnina in rd 1 but she should provide a sterner test here. Mannarino +6AH over Gasquet @ 2.050 (Pinnacle:5pts) Dangerous one for Gasquet here IMO....don't think he's in the type of form to be covering big handicaps...OK he had games to spare against Dancevic who was awful but still remained competitive in that loss. Mannarino on the other hand is in the form of his life, crushed Harrison in round 1 and I think can at least win a set here which would give the handicap a chance. Definite value IMO. Gasquet did lose to Phau a few weeks back so I'm not sure he's trustable right now at short prices. Wozniacki vs King OVER 17.5 games @ 1.926 (Pinnacle:3pts)

OK Wozniacki is clearly the superior player here and I expect her to win but considering her form I think the line might be a tad low here. She was schooled by Cibulkova in Sydney and came through 6-3 6-4 against out of form Dulko in rd 1 here, and Dulko did have other break chances which she failed to convert. King started the year in decent form, I thought she'd lose to Paszek in rd 1 but she dominated that one despite losing the first set breaker. Of course top players can steamroll her at times but its not the worst match-up for King as she can be quite crafty, she'll cme forward and try to finish points quickly...if she can keep the errors low then I fancy her to cover this line. They played once last year at Indian Wells and Wozniacki took it in 3 sets 5-7 6-2 6-4.

GL!

Was considering all 3 of these myself :lol. Sharapova when in rallies in the first round was good, but you always felt when it was her second serve, it was inevitably going to end in a double fault. With regards to Mannarino, due to the form over the last couple of weeks for both, Mannarino is too high for the outright, as we see again Gasquet stupidly priced because of his name. Still unsure whether I'm going to take anything, somethings telling me to stay away tonight...

[martinhattrick]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

One more to add to my double earlier... - Mardy Fish (vs Tommy Robredo) @ 1.96 with 188bet (6/10) Think the odds are too generous on Fish here. Robredo is not the player he used to be. Looking at his last nine months, he's played wretchedly and has been beaten by a number of average players. Bellucci showed him up in Auckland and he lost a set to Venus too. Win over Devvarman was expected because the Indian is as bad as Robredo is at present. Fish showed a lot of guts to take out Hanescu in the last round and will be buoyed after that. He is arguably at the peak of his career and seems motivated and fit, something that was lacking from his game a few years ago. He has the serve to get cheap points, something Robredo doesn't have, and is more consistent and aggresive than his opponent. They both know each other well - Robredo leads the H2H 4-3 - but most of their meetings were around 2008, when Robredo was a lot better than now. Fish has improved, has become more stable and solid, while Robredo is a flakier version of himself. Robredo might nick a set but Fish looks the call here. :hope

will follow here! only just by watchinh what these players have done last year i think it is criminal not to back Fish. I know he might be tired by the 5 setter match but he is in the shape of his life these days and robredo has definately lost whatever it carried him to be a top 10 player

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Dodig vs Djokovic Dodig + 9.5 games @ 2.00 (b365) This is a huge handicap and I think Dodig is capable of holding his serve acceptable enough. Djokovic should win in 3 but I can see something like 6-3 6-4 6-2 or 6-4 6-4 6-1 to Djokovic. Dodig should keep it close enough to not lose by 10 games. Simon +8.5 vs Federer @ 1.83 (b365) Dangerous one for Federer here IMO.... Simon have beaten him both times they played and Federer has some troubles against french players. Simon is in good form and won't be giving the match away and should not lose by 9 games.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) just some thoughts for tonight.... i think fernando verdasco will beat tipseravic at 8-13 with boyles. Verdasco has been a far superior grand slam performer than tipseravic over the past 2 seasons or so and tipseravic only takes the odd scalp...and it's usually roddick for that matter. I expect it to be topsy turvy but for verdasco to elevate his game when he really needs it...if he plays his best tennis ...he's got too much for tipsy. I also agree with Atko on the almagro bet though his price has shortened. he'll probably take the scenic route to this victory, could be a five setter...but ultimately he'll be better in the crunch moments of the match than andreev. I like robin haase at 5-6 to beat monaco...haase has some good form and there is still huge question marks over monaco....beaten last week by mannarino. H aase is a little slow and really poor at the net...but he's mentally strong and has powerful strokes that could blow monaco off the court. small stakes advised for that one. A cibulkova, wickmayer, kleybanova treble should come in. I wouldn't back against nishikori. And I also like kanepi at evns to beat goerges, goerges is completely unproven and an underacheiver in grand slams... talented but over-rated. kanepi's form is a worry though...but can't resist the price. good luck all no matter what you bet on.

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sport Tennis Event Kubot - Stakhovsky Selection Kubot +3.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 19/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Expekt @ 1.90 Reasoning In my opinion Kubot don't lose this match with 4 games margin, can make advantage to next round in my opinion.. Kubot leading 3-0 in H2H against Stakhovsky, played against this guy on the all surfaces - clay, grass and hard court. Last match in 2010 on this surface Kubot won in Doha 2-0. Stakhovsky in first round don't have any problems against Brands and won 3-0, but Brands in last months is totally out of form. Kubot in first round beat in 5 sets, great, one of the best server on the world Querrey! Kubot return working on the highest level. Kubot defending fourth round from last year, motivation is high. In my opinion Kubot won after 4 sets!