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smegmaniac

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smegmaniac last won the day on June 26 2016

smegmaniac had the most liked content!

About smegmaniac

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 08/15/1983
  1. Thankfully, you were right!! And I am also happy she got the job done in two. Jeez, is Wuhan the only tournament that players are expected to play 6 matches in one week??
  2. I've actually got kvitova backed at 25-1 outright and considering her form at the moment, I'm quite surprised she is 5-6 versus konta . I'm just curious...she played a really gruelling 3 hour twenty minute match against the last player you want to play that length a match with and I wonder if the bookies are factoring in fatigue in a big way or do they actually believe this is a 50-50 match up at face value. If kvitova is not too fatigued I think she is the value, but I'm a little worried about her comments after the match( I will definitely feel the effects tomorrow). Hopefully she can recover in time!!
  3. Albert Ramos Vinolas to beat Vasek Pospisil at 10-3 Bet365 2 points. It’s just such a good price! I think Ramos Vinolas is wrongly being pegged as just a clay courter here. He has to be one of the most improved players on tour and his performance to make the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating the likes of Sock and Raonic on the way, was really outstanding. He has not had much success in Wimbledon in the past but he has been unlucky enough to have been drawn against the likes of Del Potro and Federer 2 of the past there times. I saw his match against Istomin last year and for two sets I was really impressed by how well he moved and served on the surface before Istomin retired injured with a phantom injury. He is a much improved player 12 months later (particularly mentally as he used to be a bit of a choker) and I expect him to ride the confidence of reaching the quarters of the French to put in a good showing here. His twitter accounts also suggests positivity regarding being back on the grass. Regarding Pospisil, he will be under a lot of pressure to defend the points he gained from his outstanding quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year. No doubt, grass is his favourite surface but he is having an absolute stinker of a year this year and it has to be remembered that he was being outplayed by leftie Vincent Millot last year in the first round when being 2 sets to one and a break down to Millot before Millot finally tired. He also benefitted from a Troicki blow up and a dream fourth round draw versus Ward to make the quarters. This year , there are hesitant signs that he is finding his feet again on the grass with wins over Kozlov, Kamke and Dzumhur but none of those guys are world beaters so he hasn’t really done enough for me to warrant such huge favouritism in this match against a confident player. Just think there is value on Ramos Vinolas but modest stakes advised!
  4. Duque Marino to Beat Cepelova 2 points at evens with Powers. Am really surprised to see Duque Marino as the underdog here. She has been in great form recently. She reached the final at Nuremberg on clay about a month ago beating the likes of Beck, Siegemund and Lepchenko, she beat Gavrilova at the French and has some good grass court results this year too. She has already beaten Van Uytvanck and grass court lover Lisicki this year while 3 set losses to Konjuh and Sevestova don't read too badly. She actually serves pretty well and can play with variety and I think her slice could unsettle the one-dimensional Cepelova. Cepelova's form this year has not been great and I wonder do the prices reflect the fact that she is living off the past glory of beating an off colour Halep at Wimbledon last year before losing in straights to Niculescu ( a player not entirely dissimilar to Duque Marino though Duque Marino's game isn't quite as idiosyncratic). It certainly is worth noting that Cepelova qualified here very comfortably and I suppose that is another reason why she is favourite but it has to be said that she benefited from a very cushy draw , beating Jorovic, Reix and K Zhang. Duque Marino is a step up in class for her and has one their only meeting on grass this time last year 6-1,6-1. That is enough reason for me to snatch up the evens going about her!
  5. Andy Murray to reach the final of Wimbledon 3 points 11-10 Bet365. Agree with Czech Punter here! I think it is all set up for Murray to do this. He has been so consistent over the last few years. Has reached the last two Grand Slam finals and he loves the grass. The key thing here is that he doesn’t have to play Roger to get to the final and I would make him big favourite against any of the players in his side of the draw on grass. He also had Lendl back in his camp, has won Queens, looks hungry and set to have a good tilt at the title!
  6. Klara Koukalova to beat Nicole Gibbs at 5-2 with boylesports. I just think the price has become far too big for Koukalova. Gibbs has a lot of wins under her belt of late (she has won 12 of her last 14) but most of those wins have been at itf level and there isn't a player of note amongst that group of 14 that she beat. She generally does struggle at grand slam level and has done so for years. Koukalova is famously inconsistent and there were certainly times last season that she was so poor that I was half expecting her to announce her retirement any moment but surprisingly she actually pulled off a good run of results herself towards the end of the year, winning 11 of her last 13 matches (against opponents of similar stature to the ones Gibbs beat, admittedly) which suggests that she's not just finished yet. It's also worth noting that Koukalova has won the only match between the two no less than 6 months ago beating Gibbs in straight sets on grass! Basically, I can't understand why Gibbs is such a huge favourite here...There is no doubt in my mind that anything close to Koukalova's A-game has the beating of Gibbs, whose ceiling is certainly lower than Koukalova's. Of course, there is a risk in backing a player as inconsistent as Koukalova and she hasn't had a good start to the season but one would have to believe that at this stage of her career, she'd be motivated to give her best at slams as she probably realises that she won't be getting many more opportunities at the greatest stage and I believe she has the beaten of Gibbs! At the very least, it's worth a small punt at very generous odds!
  7. First off , apologies for the Cornet tip yesterday. Haven't tipped many losers in a while and in my defence Cornet was clearly injured but still, it is never nice to know that someone could be losing money due to a tip I've given. Nevertheless, here is a bet that stood out to me today. Leonardo Mayer plus 20.5 aces versus Kevin Anderson at 4-5 with Skybet. Anderson is clearly a big server...but I don't put him in the same class as Raonic, Isner or Karlovic. Mayer's serve is under-rated and one of the reasons he has tended to do quite well here on the grass. Anderson served 23 aces in his first match and 34 aces in his second. Both matches were 4 setters. Mayer scored 15 aces against Kokkinakis in 3 sets but only 9 versus Granollers in the second match but that was a match he won comfortably in 3 sets. I saw him against Kokkinakis and he was reading serve very well which suggests that he may be able to get a racket on more of Anderson's serves than most of Anderson's opponents. Also, scoring 15 aces in 3 sets versus Kokkinakis is a pretty decent return. If this matches goes to 4 sets, I feel that a return of 15 /9which he seems more than capable of producing) would be more than enough to cover a 20 ace handicap. If it ends up being a long drawn out battle, then perhaps Anderson could pull away on the ace count but a long drawn out battle would suggest that Mayer is serving well too and still 20 seems too much to me! Again, I still don't rate Anderson's serve in the same league as Isner, Raonic or Karlovic. Good luck , folks!
  8. First off , apologies for the Cornet tip yesterday. Haven't tipped many losers in a while and in my defence Cornet was clearly injured but still, it is never nice to know that someone could be losing money due to a tip I've given. Nevertheless, here is a bet that stood out to me today. Leonardo Mayer plus 20.5 aces versus Kevin Anderson at 4-5 with Skybet. Anderson is clearly a big server...but I don't put him in the same class as Raonic, Isner or Karlovic. Mayer's serve is under-rated and one of the reasons he has tended to do quite well here on the grass. Anderson served 23 aces in his first match and 34 aces in his second. Both matches were 4 setters. Mayer scored 15 aces against Kokkinakis in 3 sets but only 9 versus Granollers in the second match but that was a match he won comfortably in 3 sets. I saw him against Kokkinakis and he was reading serve very well which suggests that he may be able to get a racket on more of Anderson's serves than most of Anderson's opponents. Also, scoring 15 aces in 3 sets versus Kokkinakis is a pretty decent return. If this matches goes to 4 sets, I feel that a return of 15 /9which he seems more than capable of producing) would be more than enough to cover a 20 ace handicap. If it ends up being a long drawn out battle, then perhaps Anderson could pull away on the ace count but a long drawn out battle would suggest that Mayer is serving well too and still 20 seems too much to me! Again, I still don't rate Anderson's serve in the same league as Isner, Raonic or Karlovic. Good luck , folks!
  9. [QUOTE=macwlod;n3736270]Denisa Allertova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 10 bet365 It's a risky bet, but I can't resist trying Allertova at those odds for small stakes. Wozniacki isn't playing at her best, she doesn't feel comfortable on grass, never made it past last 16 in Wimbledon. Allertova is a very gifted player, she's improving all the time and I'm sure she can put up a fight. If Wozniacki has one of her worse days, it may be a surprise of the day. I will also try a combo: Karlovic, Ward, Pospisil @ 12 GL!![/QUOTE] Agreed! It's a great price and she certainly has a chance! I think she could push Wozniacki....not quite sure if she has the experience to actually see out the win but it could be worth covering the bet if she finds herself in a winning position! Certainly worth a bet though :)
  10. Agreed! It's a great price and she certainly has a chance! I think she could push Wozniacki....not quite sure if she has the experience to actually see out the win but it could be worth covering the bet if she finds herself in a winning position! Certainly worth a bet though :)
  11. Back Cornet to beat Govortsova today at 3-4 with Sportingbet. I cannot believe that Cornet is not at least 4-9 here! She has a 3-1 head-to-head win record against Govortsova. (In fairness one of the wins was a Govortsova retirement and Govortsova's only win came on grass in the Wimbledon qualifiers in 2007, but that is when Cornet was a teenager and she is a completely different beast now). Cornet played very well here last year when she beat Schmiedlova, Cetkovska and none other than the great Serena Williams before losing a tight 2 setter against the (on-fire at the time) Bouchard! She also destroyed the much celebrated youngster Ana Konjuh in the first round this year and looked very tuned in. Govortsova is in very good form and came through qualifying very comfortably before destroying Mitu one and one in the first round. Govortsova is no doubt talented and was striking the ball very well but Mitu could barely keep the ball in play for more than 5 shots so I think the scoreline is a little flattering to Govortsova. Cornet is a big step up and has a much better grand slam record than Govortsova and even if it does become a close match (and I don't doubt that Govortsova is capable of really troubling Cornet), it is Cornet who I expect to come through as I think she is more mentally tough than Govortsova , who I've seen choke in big games many times in the past!
  12. Back Cornet to beat Govortsova today at 3-4 with Sportingbet. I cannot believe that Cornet is not at least 4-9 here! She has a 3-1 head-to-head win record against Govortsova. (In fairness one of the wins was a Govortsova retirement and Govortsova's only win came on grass in the Wimbledon qualifiers in 2007, but that is when Cornet was a teenager and she is a completely different beast now). Cornet played very well here last year when she beat Schmiedlova, Cetkovska and none other than the great Serena Williams before losing a tight 2 setter against the (on-fire at the time) Bouchard! She also destroyed the much celebrated youngster Ana Konjuh in the first round this year and looked very tuned in. Govortsova is in very good form and came through qualifying very comfortably before destroying Mitu one and one in the first round. Govortsova is no doubt talented and was striking the ball very well but Mitu could barely keep the ball in play for more than 5 shots so I think the scoreline is a little flattering to Govortsova. Cornet is a big step up and has a much better grand slam record than Govortsova and even if it does become a close match (and I don't doubt that Govortsova is capable of really troubling Cornet), it is Cornet who I expect to come through as I think she is more mentally tough than Govortsova , who I've seen choke in big games many times in the past!
  13. Soler-Espinosa to beat Sesil Karatancheva at 6-4 with Boyles. This girl , Soler-Espinosa, has been flying under the radar for years really and I am still baffled as to why the bookies still never take her seriously. She is basically a solid journeywoman who generally tends to beat who she is supposed to beat and rarely ever makes it deep into big tournaments and rarely records shock victories versus big names which is possibly why she still flies under the radar a bit. But s...he actually has a very solid grand slam record and even though she is probably considered to be more of a clay court player , she has actually won each of her first round matches at the last 3 Wimbledons. She has played against players on a similar level to Karatancheva : Gallovits in 2012, Doi in 2013 and Govortsova in 2014. She also has some good from to draw from. She pushed Kvitova to three sets in the French open and reached the final of an ITF tournament in Montpellier last week before losing to veteran clay courter, Dominguez Lino. Another factor that is well worth considering is the head-to- head. Soler-Espinosa leads the head to head 3-1 and has basically hammered Karatancheva in straights the last three times that they have played. Yes, none of those meetings were on grass but it still seems to point to match -up problem for Karatancheva! As for Karatancheva, she is having a pretty good season to be fair. She beat Jankovic at the French but Jankovic played horribly and Karatancheva then went on to lose to Falconi in the next round which doesn't inspire confidence. She has the advantage of having played a match on grass already this year but she lost in straights to Dellaqua so that also doesn't inspire confidence. She also does not have a good record at Wimbledon. Due to her good form this year, this is the first season that she has not had to qualify for Wimbledon but before this year she has failed to qualify for Wimbledon for the last 4 years!! I just think Soler-Espinosa is consistently under-rated in these match ups. She is a very solid match player with a good temperament and a solid game. No major weapons but she doesn't make many mistakes and both the head to-head record and her record at Wimbledon is enough to convince me that, at the very least, she should be favourite! Which is why the 6-4 seems like great value smile emoticon Good luck folks and feel free to disagree!
  14. Soler-Espinosa to beat Sesil Karatancheva at 6-4 with Boyles. This girl , Soler-Espinosa, has been flying under the radar for years really and I am still baffled as to why the bookies still never take her seriously. She is basically a solid journeywoman who generally tends to beat who she is supposed to beat and rarely ever makes it deep into big tournaments and rarely records shock victories versus big names which is possibly why she still flies under the radar a bit. But s...he actually has a very solid grand slam record and even though she is probably considered to be more of a clay court player , she has actually won each of her first round matches at the last 3 Wimbledons. She has played against players on a similar level to Karatancheva : Gallovits in 2012, Doi in 2013 and Govortsova in 2014. She also has some good from to draw from. She pushed Kvitova to three sets in the French open and reached the final of an ITF tournament in Montpellier last week before losing to veteran clay courter, Dominguez Lino. Another factor that is well worth considering is the head-to- head. Soler-Espinosa leads the head to head 3-1 and has basically hammered Karatancheva in straights the last three times that they have played. Yes, none of those meetings were on grass but it still seems to point to match -up problem for Karatancheva! As for Karatancheva, she is having a pretty good season to be fair. She beat Jankovic at the French but Jankovic played horribly and Karatancheva then went on to lose to Falconi in the next round which doesn't inspire confidence. She has the advantage of having played a match on grass already this year but she lost in straights to Dellaqua so that also doesn't inspire confidence. She also does not have a good record at Wimbledon. Due to her good form this year, this is the first season that she has not had to qualify for Wimbledon but before this year she has failed to qualify for Wimbledon for the last 4 years!! I just think Soler-Espinosa is consistently under-rated in these match ups. She is a very solid match player with a good temperament and a solid game. No major weapons but she doesn't make many mistakes and both the head to-head record and her record at Wimbledon is enough to convince me that, at the very least, she should be favourite! Which is why the 6-4 seems like great value smile emoticon Good luck folks and feel free to disagree!