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** October Poker League Result : 1st avongirl, 2nd McG, 3rd Rhino_Power **
** October Naps Competition Result: 1st internetmails, 2nd Donnyflyer, 3rd vangovin, 4th Peter York. KO Cup Winner mickyftm32. Most Winners waggy: **


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About Lahrio

  • Birthday 12/08/1989
  1. Re: A League > 23 - 25 November I agree with blackcrow's post, and I have also gone with Adelaide Over 2.5 goals @ 4.00 (Bet365). Sydney's defence has been atrocious lately, and they have conceded 3 or more goals in all of their games since the Sydney derby a month ago including 14 goals in the past 3 weeks. I have seen no signs that Sydney will be able to stop leaking goals at such a rate.
  2. Re: Champions League T20 2012 Another small loss in that game with Mahmood failing with the bat and I had my heart in my mouth given my luck recently as the 10th wicket partnership starting hitting them out of the park. Onto the second game and there are a few bets that interest me. Firstly the H2H bet, I have no idea how Perth aren't favourites against what has been a pretty poor showing by KKR so far. KKR just don't have enough fit batsman that are used to these conditions in my opinion. They are far too reliant on McCullum, and while Kallis is obviously a top-quality player but he has struggled with the bat recently, scoring only 45 runs in his last 7 T20 innings. His injury in the first game of the tournament looked to be playing on his mind as well in his last match. I have gone Perth @ 2.14 (Pinnacle). I have also gone with Bisla to bt. Gambhir @ 2.10 (Bet365). This is one that should be about even. Despite Gambhir's experience, he hasn't been in form lately and Bisla has had a couple of decent innings. This could really go either way so I will take Bisla at odds above evens. J. Kallis - Under 38 Performance Pts @ 1.83 (Bet365). I suppose there is always a risk taking on someone of Kallis's quality, but as I mentioned above he hasn't really done too much with the bat lately, and he looked injured in his last match. Given his current T20 form and the look of this pitch, I would say he probably has to cover this with his bowling.
  3. Re: Champions League T20 2012 I'm also having a small punt on Azhar Mahmood MoM @ 8.00 (Bet365) for the same reasons listed above.
  4. Re: Champions League T20 2012 I'm thinking of going with the Under 9.5 6's @ 1.80 (Bet365) in the opening match tonight. Durban is another ground where seeing 10+ 6's isn't common and the rain that Kev mentioned in the lead up should make it that little bit harder to go after the bowling. Also looking at Azhar Mahmood - Performance Points 42&Over @ 1.83 (Bet365). Like Watson, Mahmood is another true all-rounder in good form at the moment. Mahmood has covered this line in all three games Auckland have played so far, and has taken 8 wickets in his previous two games. He is capable with the bat as well and coming in close to the top of the innings, he will have time to build an innings. Not sure about the H2H market, but given Kev's record I might just have to follow him on the Titans. ;)
  5. Re: Champions League T20 2012 Just not my day. After the 1st game where there was about 20 1-bounce fours, this game features what was probably a record number of sixes that cleared the rope by less than 5cm. :lol EDIT: Despite being frustrated after the end of the CSK innings, I suppose I can't complain about the 6's bet as it lost comfortably in the end. The Lions did well to chase down a decent total and win the H2H bet, but it was the only positive in a poor night for me.
  6. Re: Champions League T20 2012 OK, so the innings run line is set at 155.5 which is far higher than I expected. I think a score of 160 will be a really competitive score here and expected this line to be set around the high 140's. Big scores aren't common at Cape Town, particularly not for subcontinent players and with Michael Hussey being rested, I just feel as though there is too much pressure on Du Plessis to score runs given he is the only recognised batsman who would feel at home in these conditions. The 1st innings average score here is 148. I'll have a put on Chennai Total - Under 155.5 runs @ 1.83 (Bet365).
  7. Re: Champions League T20 2012 Unlucky with the 6's bet Kev. I followed and it looked like it was going to hit especially after the first over that Watson faced! For the second game I will be looking at the 1st inning runs line that is set with interest. I am hoping for a bit of an over-reaction to a low scoring game first up. I will also take Under 9.5 6's @ 1.72 (Bet365). The odds aren't particularly great, but as I mentioned yesterday this isn't a 6-hitters ground. Most other bookies have this line set at 8.5 (albeit at odds of 1.83) so I am willing to take on take on some of the big hitters on show in this market. I am also on the Lions @ 2.72 (Pinnacle)! These odds are absolutely ridiculous. There is no doubt Chennai have some big names in their side, but the Lions will be used to these conditions and have shown they can compete with the big names of world cricket with a win in their opening match. I am not sold on some of these Indian batsman on these South African pitches and I think if Hussey can be dismissed early on in his innings, the Lions will be in a great position to cause an upset. Despite his good innings in the last game, I think Raina will struggle on a pitch that players in the early game described as having tennis-ball bounce. I would have the Lions closer to 2.20-2.30 here.
  8. Re: Champions League T20 2012 I agree with Kev on the Auckland H2H market. At odd of 2.54 with Pinnacle they look good value. The Lions showed yesterday that despite the big names in some of these IPL sides, they are certainly beatable given the conditions. I am also interested in Total 6's - Under 8.5 @ 2.00 (Bet365). This tends to be a fairly low-scoring ground in T20's, and these sides don't feature a wealth of 6 hitters. As Kev mentioned, the two NZ boys in McCullum and Guptill are probably the main threat to this market, but at evens I think there is enough value given the majority of matches at Cape Town don't cover this line.
  9. Re: Champions League T20 2012 I'm liking the look of S. Watson - 44&Over Performance Points @ 1.83 (Bet365). For a true all-rounder in brilliant form, this line looks fairly low. Watson has a knack of taking a wicket or two and has the ability to bowl that crucial last over which improves his wicket-taking potential even further. He can also cover this easily with the bat if he gets going, and the bounce in these wickets shouldn't pose too much of a problem for Australian batsmen. I also began to steer clear of the MoM market when Watson was being priced as low as 4's and 5's towards the end of the World Cup, but at 7.50 he might be worth a shout again. I can't believe his form has completely disappeared and his lack of performance towards the end of the World Cup can be at least partially explained by the game situations Australia found themselves in (chasing 200+ with the only two batsman capable of helping him reach it being dismissed early).
  10. Re: Group D > Oct 3 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I think it will be a long long time before we see a game with more shots on target go under 2.5.
  11. Re: ICC World T20 2012 I am also on Watson to be MoM but I also have to take a nibble at Watson - Top Aus Bowler @ 4.50 (Sportsbet). Watson hasn't failed to take a wicket for Australia when brought on to bowl in this format since 2010! He also usually bowls the last over of the innings, in which batsman swing wildly at anything, and more often than not, 1/2 wickets fall. I don't think the Australian bowling will pose too many problems to the South Africans, at least not to the extent that someone takes 4+ wickets, so 'nothing' wickets in those death overs could easily decide this market.
  12. Re: ICC World T20 2012 OK, so they closed the Performance markets just before I confirmed by bet so I am pretty much just on the SL win with a small stake on Pollard top bat now.
  13. Re: ICC World T20 2012 K. Sangakarra - 36 & Over Performance Index @ 1.83 (Bet365) It won't surprise me if SL try to bowl a part-time spinner such as Dilshan for an extra 4 overs given what I saw of the pitch in the first game. That of course opens up the potential for a stumping which is worth 25 points. Sangakarra is also a world-class batsman and can easily cover this total with the bat as well even if he is coming to the crease around the 11th or 12th over. K. Pollard Top WI Batsman @ 9.00 (Sportsbet) We all know Pollard is a great batsman when he gets going, so I won't go too much into that here. No doubt he has been priced at 9's simply because of his normal position down the order. However, in their last game, Pollard came in at number 4, which shows that the WI are flexible in allowing him to move up the order should the need arise. I'm also not too confident about this WI batting line-up on a turning wicket. If Gayle falls early I wouldn't be surprised to see a mini-collapse with a lower-order player coming in relatively early. At 9's I think this is a decent price. Sri Lanka @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) I think Kev has discussed this in his above post. SL will be playing in familiar conditions and I am not too sure about the WI on a turning wicket. Narine could cause some damage but the SL batsman will be much better equipped to deal with the threat of spin and actually score at a decent rate rather than trying to play it out as most other sides have tended to do so far.
  14. Re: ICC World T20 2012 Chris Gayle Man of the Match @ 6.50 (Sportsbet) Despite the odds being rather short, I have gone for this bet simply because of how the pitch looked in the first game today. I can see the MoM award going to another batsman tonight after Dilshan got it in the early game. Gayle almost holds this West Indies side together, and if they do win, Gayle will be a good chance of picking up the award.
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