Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Right let's try and get a full house today. Robin Soderling vs Jan Hernych- Under 27.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) This is hardly likely to be a 5 set thriller, and Soderling should romp to victory here. Hernych had an epic with Bellucci and admitted that he was completely shattered and would need a miracle to put up a fight today. Hernych only just got through his first qualifier last week, and although wins over Istomin and Bellucci are good results for the Czech, Soderling will dominate all areas of the game. Soderling has won 8 on the spin now and is playing close to his best which just underlines the class difference between the two. Would be suprised if Robin doesn't wrap this up in much over an hour/hour and a half. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Dolgopolov +3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Not too much I can add to what Atko has already said earlier on in the forum. I've backed the Ukranian so far and taken him again here. Tsonga, against Seppi went missing for the latter end of the second set but due to Seppi's incompetence and idiocrisy, he allowed Tsonga to break him and take it to a tie break, which the Frenchman ultimately won. Seppi was complaining about the crowd which made him lose focus, and if he hadn't have done this, he would have served the set out and maybe gone on from there. Dolgopolov has matured and come on leaps and bounds in the last year and he won't let up like Seppi did. He is serving extremely well, hitting plenty of aces in his matches, whilst his return game, which will be so important against Tsonga, is working well as he broke big serving Becker on numerous occasions in the last round. Dolgopolov has a fair chance of taking the match IMO, but the handicap gives some extra security if he loses a close 5 setter like he did at Wimbledon last year, in their only meeting. He covered the handicap there, hopefully he'll do the same tonight. Lucie Safarova vs Vera Zvonareva- Zvonareva -5.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) Not a fan of taking women's handicaps after Kleybanova's poor show the other day but feel the number 2 seed should cover this one. Safarova has endured two 3 setters in her previous rounds, against opponents much weaker than the Russian. Interestingly enough, Safarova's last 7 matches have all gone to 3 sets but don't see Zvonareva hanging about. She won in 3 against a tricky Jovanovski, and hammered Bammer in the first round after a dodgy start. With Henin and Williams out, Wozniacki looking vulnerable and Clijsters going missing for parts of her matches, Vera will feel this is her best chance yet to win a slam and she'll be looking to impress and get her matches done in a quick and routine fashion. She's already beaten Williams, Clijsters and Wozniacki this year, expect her to get through here by winning at least 6 more games than her opponent. Flavia Pennetta vs Shahar Peer- Peer to win- 11/10 Bet365- (4/10) Here it comes. Saw IAG mentioned this one and I have to agree that Peer shouldn't be the underdog here. Considered taking her with a handicap in the last round but didn't but she's clearly in good form and repeating her good performances that served her well in Flushing Meadows last year. Peer has won both her matches comfortably in straight sets, but she continues to impress through her on court attitude. Last match, Cirstea had a mental breakdown on court and needed a time out. So often we see in the women's game that this will affect both players but not Peer. She stayed focused and relaxed and when they started again, she continued to play her normal game and won. Pennetta has also won her matches easily but I still feel she is slightly vulnerable and still finding her feet again after her injury towards the end of last season. She recently lost to Jovanovski and if her fitness isn't completely there yet, and it perhaps went to 3 sets, the counter-punch style of Peer will trouble the Italian. Peer has come on and is now a familiar face in the top 15/20. Clever shot selections, not afraid to come to the net and can serve some aces now. She's won the last 2 on hard between them, both last year, and she's worth a shot here at above evens. Taken one round 4 match as well early. Andrea Petkovic vs Maria Sharapova- Petkovic to win- 11/8 Bet365- (4/10) Odds have since dropped on this one so happy I got in when I did. This bet is slightly for Petkovic, but mainly against Sharapova. Maria is still struggling with her serve big time, and from that she loses momentum and her confidence in the rallies. She just came through against Goerges in 3, but still had 11 double faults and still prone to errors. Mentioned it before in the forum, whenever she has a second serve, you always feel it's going to be a double with her shoulder holding her game back all the time. One of the main reasons why she was so dominant was because of her serve and without that, she does really struggle. Petkovic is certainly no mug, reaching the fourth round at the US open last year, and making the final in Brisbane a couple of weeks back. Bit fortunate with Williams being forced to retire after just 6 minutes, but even if Venus was fit, I wouldn't rule Petkovic out from taking it anyway. Only meeting was last year when Sharapova won easily, but that was when the German was losing against very average opponents and even Safina no less. Since then she's winning matches again and gained her confidence back. She won't let Sharapova settle when they play and will force her into errors. Good price and hopefully it will pay dividends.

WIN WIN LOSS LOSS PENDING Think we'll just stick to the men now. Giving up on the WTA which leaves me virtually evens for a second day :wall. Atko as always superb and Czech with some great shouts yesterday :clap

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Lot of plays for me in round 4 Sharapova (RUS) vs Petkovic (GER): Petkovic @Pinnacle 2,470 Basically this bet is tailing fishy25. Sharapova's form did not convince me and Andrea's aggressive style will put her onto a real test. Andrea is fresh because Venus retired after the very first game, while Maria had a hard three setter with Goerges. The only problem with Andrea is sometimes motivation, but this should be OK in a Grand Slam. Li-Na (CHN) vs Azarenka (BLR): Li-Na @Pinnacle 1,943 Continuing to fade Azarenka here. 63 63 against Scheepers, 64 64 against Hlavackova (anybody heard of Hlavackova?) are not truly convincing results. Li-Na will tear her into pieces in the sunny, warm and humid early Melbourne's afternoon, which are the conditions Azarenka does not like much. Taking Li-Na at evens is real gift. Wozniacki (DEN) vs Sevastova (LAT): Sevastova +6 @Pinnacle 1,769 God only knows why the bookies constatly underestimate this Latvian jewel. H2H is 1-0 for Woz, but this match was on I_hard (Fed cup 2010), which does not really suit well to Anastasija. Melbourne's surface is much slower. Anastasija did beat Stosur and Cibulkova in Beijing on hard last year, which are significant achievements. In round 2 couple of days ago she sent packing Yanina Wickmayer - but to be fair, one must take into account that Yanina was not 100% fit after a virosis and tight three setter with Jarmila Groth in round 1. My opinion is that this match will not be a destroiyng type match and that Anastasija will keep it close. Berdych (CZE) vs Verdasco (ESP): Berdych -3 @Pinnacle 1,806 The line for outright is too low (around 1.600), so I am taking the handicap. Hopefully Berdy is not going to take it into a five setter. Almagro(ESP) vs Djokovic (SRB): Almagro +7.5 @Pinnacle 1,870 Almagro is apparently in solid form after the winter pause. World no 14 playing in solid form should not be that big underdog against Djokovic playing in 30 centigrades on an open court - the match starts at 1:00 pm local time and the forecast is sunny, warm, no rain for Sunday early afternoon. Djoko was lucky that his compatriot Troicky retired after the 1st set, thus sparing Djoko alot of energy. We shall see how Djoko will cope with the conditions this round. Edit: adding Roddick (USA) vs Wawrinka (SUI): Roddick @Pinnacle 1,990 Been thinking around this one for a while, but finally decided to pull the trigger. Andy should be a favourite in this match, so at given odds I just must accept the offer. Wawrinka is not playing bad, but his opponents often make it easy to him. Monfils was competitive in the first set only and literally vanished after the lost first set tie-break. Dimitrov and Gabashvili are not opponents that could have put Stan under pressure. Andy plays in good form this year and surely posseses weapons against Stan's defensive style of play.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Looks like most are rolling in the profits which is always good to see. Only a slght profit for me overall so hoping for a better second week. Still have one pending but taken two for tonight. Was considering the Federer handicap but the price doesn't appeal to me. Nicolas Almagro vs Novak Djokovic- Over 32.5 games- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Think the Spaniard should have enough about him today to trouble Djokovic at times. He served impressively against Ljubicic only having 2 break point on his serve which he saved. Djokovic will obviously return better than Ljubicic but if Almagro is consistently serving well, Djokovic could struggle to get a rhythm on returning. The Serb himself hasn't looked completely content on court. Was lucky due to Troicki's retirement but even though he was struggling, he still managed a break on Djoko's serve. In addition to this, in his match before that, Dodig managed to keep the first couple of sets close and even pinched a set. Well known that Djokovic struggles in the heat as well, whereas Almagro will be fine with the heat. It's not meant to be scorching but nor is it cool, so Djokovic may be caught tanking it for a set and could give Almagro chances. H2H is 1-1 but it's irrelevant as they were a while ago and on clay. Almagro should keep it tight enough for the overs IMO. Thomas Berdych vs Fernando Verdasco- Berdych -3.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Favoured the Czech against Gasquet in his last match and don't see any reason why he shouldn't be backed again here. He's never been past the fourth round on the hard court slams but feel he has a great chance of doing it here. Beat Gasquet comfortably after recovering from a nervy start, and also was impressive against Kohli in the round before. Verdasco just about scraped through against Tipsarevic before beating Nishikori easily, but in fairness, Kei wasn't expected to trouble the Spaniard. Berdych will be a completely different match up and will match Verdasco for power and won't be scared of the spin that Verdasco will provide. Berdych has got the experience of going deep into the second week of the slams, as shown last year in France and London. So often we see Verdasco go down one or to sets and manage to come back, remember his match against Ferrer in the US, but Berdych has matured alot now and if he went a set up, it would be hard for Verdasco to come back. Most notable thing for me is also the meetings between the two. Berdych leads it 6-4, also winning the last 4 played on the hard surfaces including back at Flushing Meadows in 07 where he covered the handicap in straight sets. Could be a close one and Verdasco may cause a couple of tie breaks, but fancy Berdych to cover the handicap and get past the fourth round for the first time.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Looks like me and homunculas are thinking along the same lines. Hope it pays off :hope

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I will have Roger Federer -9.5 2.00 b365 and no need for reasoning since we all know he face Robredo and last time they met Federer covered this in US open two years ago when Robredo was ranked top 20. I go for Petkovic 2.50 b365 based on fishy and homunculus. Based on homunculus I go for Na Li -1.5 1.90 b365 Based on homunculus and fishys bets on Almagro v Djokovic I go for tie break in the match 2.25 b365. If Almagro serves well again we may see at least one tie break. Based on homunculus bet on Sevastova +6 I go for over 18.5 games 1.83 b365.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hopefully this day goes as well as the last one. Going with some risk again, but there is no profit with no risk I guess :lol I may come back with something for the Roddick-Wawrinka match, though I will decide in the morning probably. 10pts (7/10) N.Almagro (+7.5) to bt. N.Djokovic @ 1.87 at Pinnacle The line is solid, I do not expect Djokovic to win this easily. Almagro is a great opponent with a lot of weapons and playing high on confidence, which is always important for him. Djokovic has the better game, but this difference is way too much, he is not as good on return as Murray, for example. 10pts (7/10) T.Berdych (-2.5) to bt. F.Verdasco @ 1.83 at PaddyPower I like Berdych here. He was almost flawless so far and he truly demolished Gasquet, being broken just one in the whole match, which is great. Verdasco should have lost to Tipsarevic (and that hurt me a lot), Nishikori is obviously not that hard to play for him, as he has no serve. Berdych has serve - a good one, in fact - and certainly has the game to beat him. He usually beats Verdasco on hard courts, as the last year has shown. Also, Verdasco was in better form back then. This time, it should be easier for Berdych. 10pts (5/10) A.Petkovic to bt. M.Sharapova @ 2.61 at Pinnacle Went against Maria in the last match and it went well, so I will go against her again. Petkovic is rested and full of confidence from her previous matches, he has lost only to Kvitova, who is playing wonderful tennis at the moment. Sharapova still gives gifts on serve and if Goerges came close, Petkovic can do it. Of course, she is vulnerable as hell mentally, but hopefully, she can stay cool this time around. The odds are too good to pass. 10pts (5/10) Na Li (-3.5) to bt. V.Azarenka @ 2.62 at PaddyPower Took the alternative handicap here, because Azarenka has shown nothing at all in this tournament. Too many errors, too many struggles and I think the odds are ultimately worth it. If she could cover that against Clijsters, she can cover it against Azarenka, no question about that. I am willing to take the risk (and I won't complain if she wins, but does not cover), but if you want more safety, take her to win outright, that seems like value too.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sitting this one out tonight chaps, can't find a bet to play with. Considered a couple but haven't felt the certainty as I have with my other bets this week on one and the other has no value left. No point betting for betting's sake. Good luck :ok

[Kaiser888]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Lot of plays for me in round 4 in good form this year and surely posseses weapons against Stan's defensive style of play.

Maybe Roddick does deserve to be fav, it's tough to call........ but this statement made me laugh. Wawrinka has all the weapons off the ground in this matchup, and Roddick these days is the most negative player in the top 50, standing miles back and doing nothing more than push and hack in rallies. Match will be on Stan's racquet, it's a case of him holding his nerve.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Na Li v Victoria Azarenka
Selection	Azarenka
Strength	10/10
Date	23/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.10
Reasoning	Well, both players still didn't had at least one serious opponent till this stage, so this game will be a very difficult task for both of them. First of all I would like to mentionate something here which is the most important aspect IMO, Na Li had won Sydney before Australian Open and the bookies did overrate her actual level but, lest not forget that Victoria Azarenka is the player with more qualities and more overral more stable player. Victoria Azarenka's better defence is the main difference between her and Na Li who is playing some nice tennis in 2011, no doubts but still that can't change by anyway the real difference between her and Victoria Azarenka. Azarenka is the player for future, her style is the most new style in tennis, a very stable defence and a attack from the defence which so many times have been proved to be more stable than just pure great attack. All in all, there are many details about the difference in class between these two players, but certain the difference in stability is the most meaningful here which should have the word in the end. Great value. Good Luck!

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Stan Wawrinka to bt Roddick $1.80 bet365 10/10 Thought this one over for a while, i have watched so much of roddick past year and a half, and he is flat out shocking. Stan on the other hand is definitely on the improve, and really just needs to get roddicks serve back in play to hav a very good chance of winning. ROddicks backhand is always a terrible shitty short slice, or a TAPPED backhand, his forehand is not much better, to be honest he isnt a top50 player and i realy believe stan will wipe him of the court

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Okay, here we go. 10pts (7/10) S.Wawrinka to bt. A.Roddick @ 1.93 at Pinnacle I will go against most guys here. I think Wawrinka is in the better form right now and that Roddick is a little bit overrated. What exactly has he done this year? He was beaten quite easily by Soderling, which was the only real challenge. Meanwhile, Wawrinka cruised through Chennai and then beat Dimitrov and Monfils here without much fuss. Roddick had much easier opponents - poor Hajek and average Kunitsyn (who had set point against him). And he did struggle with Haase until the end of the second set. Wawrinka is the favorite for me.

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sport Tennis Event Sevastova - Wozniacki Selection Over 18.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 23/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.85 Reasoning Why not? In my opinion this line is too low, wrong logic wiht HC line. HC is +5.5 - for example 7-6, 6-1 and picks is lost. Over is WIN. 6-3, 6-4 both picks win. Three sets and 7 games margin, Over won. Sevastova don't spend too much time at the courts and is fresh. Very good holding serve, fantastic match aagainst Wickmayer and control game without any problem against Manasieva. Wozniacki make revange at the Cibulkova, but is out of the top form. Cibu don't show the best skills and not played on the highest level. I see more close match than 18.5 games line!

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sport Tennis Event Verdasco - Berdych Selection Verdasco +3.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 23/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.95 Reasoning In my opinion Verdasco can make suprise here, I see good chances for this handicap line. Verdasco have nagetive H2H against Berdych, but 4-6 only. Many close matches, many deciders, many TBs. I see next close match today. Verdasco in last game played the best match in 2011 AO against Nishikori - very confident first serve and strong forehand. Nando making very hot results in past here, for example SF two years ago. More experience than Berdych. Berdych not played with better player than Verdasco at this tournament in this year, can have problems - I see it. Berdych not made never QF here. --- Sport Tennis Event Li - Azarenka Selection Li Strength 10/10 Date 23/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 Reasoning In my opinion Li have more chances to take win in this game. Li in this moment leading in H2H 2-1. Li have more points to defend in this year than Azarenka - Chinese player in last season at the Australian Open make SemiFinal and beat on the road Wozniacki, Venus Williams and lost against Serena. Li before AO won tournament and beat hot Kim Clijsters in Final. Here for me look better than Azarenka, better rivals, better serve and better return. For me Li won this match!

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Na Li vs Victoria Azarenka over 21.5 games 10/11 skybet i think this could be a really close match with both players playing well and capable of winning the title Nicolas Almagro vs Novak Djokovic under 34.5 games 5/6 skybet this match should over in quicktime almagro is not in the same class as his opponent Tommy Robredo vs Roger Federer under 28.5 games 5/6 skybet another match which should finish quick with federer beating a player who is not good enough to beat a great player like roger

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Ok, I officially hate Verdasco. The man keeps calling medical assistance in every single match he plays. That is just so wrong in my opinion. For the same injury! Either fix it before the match and live with it, or do not play. But complaining all the time, fixing your shoes and then playing on without ANY visible discomfort is just strange. I understand the players may have some injuries and that tennis is quite fitness-oriented nowadays. However, what Verdasco is doing is just pure gamesmanship in my opinion.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeah strange seeing Verdasco do that. Wasn't watching properly when he first called the assistance and when I glanced back, thought he asked for a time out to get a new sock :lol. Watching the Berdych match but looking at the scores, how on earth has Federer dropped a set to Robredo :eek

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Strange indeed :D no socks involved I fear :D Watching both matches simultaneously and I just feel Federer was taking it lightly early on and Robredo took his chances, nothing more involved. I do not think we have a drama on the cards there, Federer just needs to concentrate and that is all. Btw, as long as he gets ripped apart by Berdych, he can have as many socks as he wants. And I hate how so many people pronounce that Berdytsch or something like that. He is a top 10 player, you can learn how to pronounce his name.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeah impressed by Berdych here, playing some good stuff. Bit of help from Verdasco's inconsistent serve but his groundstokes are effective. Verdasco looks pretty much done though, shouldn't be long in the third.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yep, I can see myself backing him against Djokovic, depending on the odds and possibly the line. He has beaten him in Wimbledon and that will be a huge confidence boost, Djokovic is impressive so far too, however. Definitely depends on the odds and the handicap line then. But I cannot see Djokovic running away with that one, he has not been tested so far. Dodig is nobody, Troicki was ill, Almagro self-destructed. No real test so far, Berdych is impressive on serve and he would love to challenge Federer once again.

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Yeah strange seeing Verdasco do that. Wasn't watching properly when he first called the assistance and when I glanced back, thought he asked for a time out to get a new sock :lol. Watching the Berdych match but looking at the scores, how on earth has Federer dropped a set to Robredo :eek

i have not been impressed with fed throughout the past year and a half, how u can be ranked 1/2 in the world and SHANK backhands 10metres out of court consistently ill never know i always repeat myself but its awful, if fed didnt hav a bs terrible easy draw he would already be out of here, apparently nadal is feeling the effects of a virus he caught in uae which is interesting..

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeah not sure about that one, Djokovic barely had to get into second gear to beat Almagro earlier, makes my overs bet look stupid. Berdych going to take it back to virtually breaking evens again though. Could do with one good day to make it a successful tournament.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Tell me about it. Thankfull Na Li takes a win with the alternative handicap at great odds, but Almagro snaps badly, neede him to hold serve four times in the third. That was never going to happen. Berdych good (unless the Spaniard retires), if Wawrinka and Petkovic win, I will be really happy.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeah on the German as well. Has a fair chance I'd say if Sharapova continues serving how she has this year.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yep, the only thing I am worried about is her head, as she is known for going quite crazy at times. Hopefully she holds together. But I am liking Wawrinka more and more. If you look at it, Roddick is really defensive this year for some reason. All those slices will get him nowhere against players like Wawrinka in my opinion. Unless he steps up, he is gone I think. Without his serve, he looked quite poor this year.

[totse]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Event	Roddick A. (Usa) - Wawrinka S. (Sui)
Selection	Roddick A. (Usa)
Strength	10/10
Date	23/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 2.10
Reasoning	Don't believe here Stanislas will make another great match at Melbourne courts, he didn't loose even a set here but his opponents were in so bad fit, I watched him against Monfils when the french didn't do anything in the match he just was getting back the ball right into Stats and that was really easy to the Swiss. Roddcik with his great serving will be big bite for the Swiss today, Andy loose one set there, he will be quiet fresh to bomb Stas with over 135 miles, if he search lines and don't repeat Monfils mistakes this should be even a 3-setter easy Roddick win.

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Wozniacki is going to be happy, Kuznetsova - Schiavone is an ongoing marathon match needless to say they are going to be spent whoever faces Wozniacki.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Right let's try and get a full house today. Robin Soderling vs Jan Hernych- Under 27.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) This is hardly likely to be a 5 set thriller, and Soderling should romp to victory here. Hernych had an epic with Bellucci and admitted that he was completely shattered and would need a miracle to put up a fight today. Hernych only just got through his first qualifier last week, and although wins over Istomin and Bellucci are good results for the Czech, Soderling will dominate all areas of the game. Soderling has won 8 on the spin now and is playing close to his best which just underlines the class difference between the two. Would be suprised if Robin doesn't wrap this up in much over an hour/hour and a half. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Dolgopolov +3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Not too much I can add to what Atko has already said earlier on in the forum. I've backed the Ukranian so far and taken him again here. Tsonga, against Seppi went missing for the latter end of the second set but due to Seppi's incompetence and idiocrisy, he allowed Tsonga to break him and take it to a tie break, which the Frenchman ultimately won. Seppi was complaining about the crowd which made him lose focus, and if he hadn't have done this, he would have served the set out and maybe gone on from there. Dolgopolov has matured and come on leaps and bounds in the last year and he won't let up like Seppi did. He is serving extremely well, hitting plenty of aces in his matches, whilst his return game, which will be so important against Tsonga, is working well as he broke big serving Becker on numerous occasions in the last round. Dolgopolov has a fair chance of taking the match IMO, but the handicap gives some extra security if he loses a close 5 setter like he did at Wimbledon last year, in their only meeting. He covered the handicap there, hopefully he'll do the same tonight. Lucie Safarova vs Vera Zvonareva- Zvonareva -5.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) Not a fan of taking women's handicaps after Kleybanova's poor show the other day but feel the number 2 seed should cover this one. Safarova has endured two 3 setters in her previous rounds, against opponents much weaker than the Russian. Interestingly enough, Safarova's last 7 matches have all gone to 3 sets but don't see Zvonareva hanging about. She won in 3 against a tricky Jovanovski, and hammered Bammer in the first round after a dodgy start. With Henin and Williams out, Wozniacki looking vulnerable and Clijsters going missing for parts of her matches, Vera will feel this is her best chance yet to win a slam and she'll be looking to impress and get her matches done in a quick and routine fashion. She's already beaten Williams, Clijsters and Wozniacki this year, expect her to get through here by winning at least 6 more games than her opponent. Flavia Pennetta vs Shahar Peer- Peer to win- 11/10 Bet365- (4/10) Here it comes. Saw IAG mentioned this one and I have to agree that Peer shouldn't be the underdog here. Considered taking her with a handicap in the last round but didn't but she's clearly in good form and repeating her good performances that served her well in Flushing Meadows last year. Peer has won both her matches comfortably in straight sets, but she continues to impress through her on court attitude. Last match, Cirstea had a mental breakdown on court and needed a time out. So often we see in the women's game that this will affect both players but not Peer. She stayed focused and relaxed and when they started again, she continued to play her normal game and won. Pennetta has also won her matches easily but I still feel she is slightly vulnerable and still finding her feet again after her injury towards the end of last season. She recently lost to Jovanovski and if her fitness isn't completely there yet, and it perhaps went to 3 sets, the counter-punch style of Peer will trouble the Italian. Peer has come on and is now a familiar face in the top 15/20. Clever shot selections, not afraid to come to the net and can serve some aces now. She's won the last 2 on hard between them, both last year, and she's worth a shot here at above evens. Taken one round 4 match as well early. Andrea Petkovic vs Maria Sharapova- Petkovic to win- 11/8 Bet365- (4/10) Odds have since dropped on this one so happy I got in when I did. This bet is slightly for Petkovic, but mainly against Sharapova. Maria is still struggling with her serve big time, and from that she loses momentum and her confidence in the rallies. She just came through against Goerges in 3, but still had 11 double faults and still prone to errors. Mentioned it before in the forum, whenever she has a second serve, you always feel it's going to be a double with her shoulder holding her game back all the time. One of the main reasons why she was so dominant was because of her serve and without that, she does really struggle. Petkovic is certainly no mug, reaching the fourth round at the US open last year, and making the final in Brisbane a couple of weeks back. Bit fortunate with Williams being forced to retire after just 6 minutes, but even if Venus was fit, I wouldn't rule Petkovic out from taking it anyway. Only meeting was last year when Sharapova won easily, but that was when the German was losing against very average opponents and even Safina no less. Since then she's winning matches again and gained her confidence back. She won't let Sharapova settle when they play and will force her into errors. Good price and hopefully it will pay dividends.

WIN WIN LOSS LOSS WIN Tidy profit in the end. Petkovic looked bery impressive indeed, completely outplaying Sharapova.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Looks like most are rolling in the profits which is always good to see. Only a slght profit for me overall so hoping for a better second week. Still have one pending but taken two for tonight. Was considering the Federer handicap but the price doesn't appeal to me. Nicolas Almagro vs Novak Djokovic- Over 32.5 games- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Think the Spaniard should have enough about him today to trouble Djokovic at times. He served impressively against Ljubicic only having 2 break point on his serve which he saved. Djokovic will obviously return better than Ljubicic but if Almagro is consistently serving well, Djokovic could struggle to get a rhythm on returning. The Serb himself hasn't looked completely content on court. Was lucky due to Troicki's retirement but even though he was struggling, he still managed a break on Djoko's serve. In addition to this, in his match before that, Dodig managed to keep the first couple of sets close and even pinched a set. Well known that Djokovic struggles in the heat as well, whereas Almagro will be fine with the heat. It's not meant to be scorching but nor is it cool, so Djokovic may be caught tanking it for a set and could give Almagro chances. H2H is 1-1 but it's irrelevant as they were a while ago and on clay. Almagro should keep it tight enough for the overs IMO. Thomas Berdych vs Fernando Verdasco- Berdych -3.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Favoured the Czech against Gasquet in his last match and don't see any reason why he shouldn't be backed again here. He's never been past the fourth round on the hard court slams but feel he has a great chance of doing it here. Beat Gasquet comfortably after recovering from a nervy start, and also was impressive against Kohli in the round before. Verdasco just about scraped through against Tipsarevic before beating Nishikori easily, but in fairness, Kei wasn't expected to trouble the Spaniard. Berdych will be a completely different match up and will match Verdasco for power and won't be scared of the spin that Verdasco will provide. Berdych has got the experience of going deep into the second week of the slams, as shown last year in France and London. So often we see Verdasco go down one or to sets and manage to come back, remember his match against Ferrer in the US, but Berdych has matured alot now and if he went a set up, it would be hard for Verdasco to come back. Most notable thing for me is also the meetings between the two. Berdych leads it 6-4, also winning the last 4 played on the hard surfaces including back at Flushing Meadows in 07 where he covered the handicap in straight sets. Could be a close one and Verdasco may cause a couple of tie breaks, but fancy Berdych to cover the handicap and get past the fourth round for the first time.

LOSS WIN Almagro really didn't have it in him but Berdych hammered Verdasco. With the Petkovic victory, finally a day of profit and not breaking even. :notworthy

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Roddick gets schooled by Wawrinka. Fortunately, Roddick's body language was quite clear in the 1st set, and I managed to lay him in live betting at 1.63 for Waw

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Nadal vs Cilic - Cilic @ 15/2 PaddyPower (8/10) And having been forced to change his shirt several times on Saturday night because of his profuse sweating, which he conceded was worse than usual, Nadal said he has still been struggling with his body. "I was perfect when I started the season in Abu Dhabi ... I was playing perfect and I was feeling perfect physically," he added ahead of a fourth-round clash with Croatian No.15 seed Marin Cilic on Monday. "In Doha, I had that problem (and) I wasn't feeling very well." "(It) seems like after that my body is still not perfect, I am sweating more than usual (and) I am more tired than usual when I'm playing." "Hopefully I'm going to improve (but) I don't know, I don't know what's going on." "I am doing all that I can, I am working, I am resting. I can't do more, all I can say is keep fighting." Nadal's record against big servers is not amazing and Cilic seems to suit this Austrlalian Open surface more than most in the draw this year is would seem.