Snoopdog

When I backed maidens I used to only look at those who had had at least 2 runs and had combined form figures from their last 2 runs of 6 to 10 (i.e. 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 33 etc).
Over the last few years these have produced 1,337 winners from 7,661 runners with a BSP profit of £828 and an AE of 1.05.
 

Just to add a bit of fun! Odds are PP (Saturday).
Over 2.5 Passers @ 13/8
Opening KO  NOT a touchback @ 11/5
Fumble in first half @ 11/10; Fumble in second half @ 5/4
Both teams get a 33+ yd FG @ 5/6
Still no score at 6.00 minutes @ Evens
 

The analysis (system) is in the top post. Ie:
1. Take the latest NFL.com Power Rankings.
2.  Allow 0.5 points per position.
3.  Allow 3 points for home field.
4. Look for significant (say 4+) difference from the spread.
 

If you have bet the “over” in every single NFL game in 2020, you are a rich man!
Indeed, the “over” holds an impressive 30-18 record so far; that’s a 62.5% win percentage.
This week, I’m going to mix some “regular” picks against the spread with some plays on totals, and also an additional pick where I’m taking a team in the first quarter.
Without further ado, let’s review my value bets for Week #4 in the NFL!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +7 AT TAMPA BAY BUCS
I do not like picking West Coast teams playing an early Sunday game, but I’ll make an exception here.
The Chargers have been involved in tight games thus far this season, thanks to their stout defense. Their most impressive game might have been one of their two losses: an overtime thriller against the Chiefs. Did you see what Kansas City did to Baltimore last week? They CRUSHED them. Knowing that the Chargers could have beaten them reinforces my confidence that Los Angeles can manage to cover the 7-point spread in Tampa.
Meanwhile, the Bucs have looked good recently, but they beat two weak teams: the Carolina Panthers and the injury-riddled Denver Broncos. In Week #1, they lost by 11 points to the Saints.
My level of confidence decreases due to injuries, as the Chargers seem more decimated than Tampa Bay. The Bucs will be missing star wide receiver Chris Godwin, and maybe running back Leonard Fournette and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting.
For Los Angeles, defensive end Melvin Ingram is out, as well as starting CB Chris Harris. That hurts, even though Desmond King is a very capable replacement for Harris.
The Chargers had also already lost center Mike Pouncey, and now they have Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner listed as questionable. Backups Trey Pipkins and Forrest Lamp both received awful ProFootballFocus grades last week: 37.5 and 44.8, respectively. That’s brutal!
I believe the public is overreacting to last week’s results. Sure, the Chargers lost to the lowly Panthers, but they were killed by four turnovers. They dominated total yardage, total first downs, and even converted 10-of-15 third down situations. Tampa Bay cruised to an easy 28-to-10 victory over the Broncos, who were missing TONS of starters at key positions.
If not for the Chargers injuries, I’d rate this play five stars.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS +0.5 FIRST QUARTER VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts cruised to an easy 36-7 win over the Jets last week. That sets up the table nicely for a soft start in Chicago this week, which is why I’m banking on the Bears to at least tie the first quarter against Indy.
Moreover, the Colts will be missing two receivers: Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman. I don’t trust Zach Pascal too much, and T.Y. Hilton has not done much damage this year with 3 or 4 receptions in each game thus far. Indy’s secondary has also been hit by the injury bug with safety Malik Hooker out and CB Rock Ya-Sin listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, the Bears are relatively healthy, except for backup RB Tarik Cohen.
I’m betting Chicago to start the game strong. Replacing Mitchell Trubisky by Nick Foles at quarterback is like a breath of fresh air for the Bears.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +7 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I would find it very uncomfortable to bet a team to win by 8 points or more against a Bill Belichick-coached squad. He just finds ways to stop your best players, and force you to play to your weaknesses.
We had another perfect example last week. Darren Waller is clearly the Raiders’ top receiving target. He looked unstoppable against the Saints, where he caught 12 passes for over 100 yards. The Pats did everything they could to stop him: he was limited to two receptions for a meager 9 yards. They forced Derek Carr to throw to other receivers, and their offense ended up struggling to find a good rhythm.
I’m betting that Bill Belichick reviewed very carefully the Chiefs-Ravens game and he won’t let that happen to his defense. He will take notes on how the Chargers were able to slow down Kansas City’s high-powered offense back in Week #2.
Here are a couple more arguments favoring this play. First, the Chiefs lose one day of preparation following their Monday night matchup with Baltimore. Also, the Pats will be looking to avenge a 23-to-16 home loss to the Chiefs last year in Week 14.
New England center David Andrews will miss the game and he will be replaced by an unproven guy whose name I cannot pronounce (Hjalte Froholdt). That’s a source of concern.
The Chiefs could be without stud defensive tackle Chris Jones and right guard Andrew Wylie. Their status is still up in the air.
I like the Pats to cover the 7-point spread.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): MIAMI DOLPHINS +6.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Miami has the rest factor going their way, as they will be benefiting from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. Also, Seattle will be traveling through three time zones to play a game that will feel like 10 AM Pacific Time at kickoff this Sunday.
This matchup also has all the looks of a trap game for the Seahawks. They are coming off big meetings against the Patriots and the Cowboys. Facing a mediocre Dolphins team clearly does not look super enticing for Seattle.
The line opened at 6.5, then moved to 7 points after the Sunday games. Sharp money backed the Dolphins pretty hard, which forced sportsbooks to go back to 6.5. If the line goes back to 7, I’m going to add more money to my initial investment on Miami.
The Seahawks have quite a few guys whose status for Sunday is uncertain: running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, cornerback Quinton Dunbar, tight end Will Dissly, but most importantly safety Jamal Adams and offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Ethan Pocic.
On Miami’s side, the only noteworthy player on the injury list is cornerback Byron Jones, who could be back after missing the Week #3 meeting with the Jaguars.
The Dolphins are coming off a convincing win in Jacksonville as 3-point underdogs. Prior to this victory, they had lost to a couple of very tough opponents: Buffalo and New England. In both cases, they kept the score close.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a true warrior and he won’t have trouble putting points on the board against a defense that has allowed an average of 29 points this year.
BETS ON TOTALS
Here is the average number of points scored in each of the three weeks so far this season: 47.4, 53.3 and 52.2. Overall, 51 points have been scored on average per matchup. That’s the highest scoring the league has ever seen through three weeks.
As a comparison, the average line on totals in Week #4 is currently 49.8. I don’t see any reason why scoring should go down. After a rocky offseason due to covid-19, defensive tackling might improve, but offenses are finding their rhythm and timing.
Here are four games where I would bet the over:
-Over 43 Colts-Bears
-Over 51 Cards-Lions
-Over 53.5 Seahawks-Dolphins
-Over 56.5 Falcons-Packers (these two teams combined have been involved in games where the average number of points was 67.5!!!)
$250,000 MEGA CONTEST (BetOnline sportsbook)
Through the first three weeks, out of 2671 participants, I’m currently sitting in 2nd place with 13 correct picks versus only two that missed.
Wish me luck for the $4,000 quarterly prize, which will be awarded to the top contestant through the first 4 weeks!
Enjoy your weekend, and let’s crush those bookies together!!!
Professor MJ

Week 2:
Went 4-1 last week.
 
Tenn  -7.5
Pitt  -7
Buff  -5.5
GB  -6
Dallas  -4.5

Better this year, but I used to feel that Ascot felt races could be off at their convenience. Eg it's off time and they are only just thinking about loading the stalls..

21.13 Just checked page 660, and it's back! So we get it for a bit longer.

Early leans for week 4...
PATS -7
CHIEFS -6.5
TITANS ML
JAGUARS +3 (best bet)
The Patriots and Chiefs do seem like square plays but honestly both have looked so good that I don't mind backing them both to win by a TD; also think the Bills have way too much hype behind them given that they've beat a Jets team lacking any offense whatsoever, a bad looking Bengals team with no AJ Green and a rookie coach who looks out of his depth, and the Giants. 

Sounds like it's on Eurosport, but not "British Eurosport".

Should have been braver and backed the straight sets but I never imagined Serena could be so dismal. As well as Halep played, Serena was terrible - even worse than last year. UE after UE after UE. If that was me I'd be a bit embarrassed, and I'd also be a bit embarrassed if I was one of Serena's previous opponents in this tournament. She is so obviously lacking in fitness and limited in movement that it makes a bit of mockery of the sport that she can just show up for the big tournaments and make the final like she's done in 3 out of the last 5 Slams.

I think it may be worth pursuing but it could be something to do with the time of year, the early 2yo's have had there time and now we are seeing better animals making their debuts.
I do think once a 2yo makes the frame on debut they are automatically made very short by the bookies next time out, very poor value. Punters think they are bound to improve for a run but they could have been ready first time out and therefore are unlikely to progress much further. Breeze Up's and Barrier Trial horses are guilty of this, they are fit first time up and will often only then improve for a step up in trip.
We get very little info on Barrier Trials by the way.

Adding Serena Williams (vs. Kvitova) at 1.83 with Bet365. Not thrilled to be backing Williams in any shape or form, but Kvitova isn't in good shape physically.

Women: Barty outright @ 11/2 with PP
Men: Nadal outright @ 7/1 with PP
Longshot double is 51/1
I did read Czech Punter's comments on the mens, but I just have a little feeling that Novak is still not 100% and the years are catching up with Roger.
Barty to go beyond Pliskova @ EV B365
Halep to go beyond Konta @ 8/11 B365
 

Billy, Ao'B Top Trainer at 4/7 looks good to me. (Paddy is 4/9.)

As an aside:
I heared a shocking programme on the radio (World Service, I think, and it might still be available) that basically said the lower levels of tennis were fixed - mainly the ITF Tour. Try a Google to " ITF Tour match fixing" or similar. The list of offenders goes on for pages - and it seems to take a few offences to get life banned. Mostly the fixing  will be on spots (number games, sets, etc) rather than the result. Those players are hurting. It tells of sharing hotel rooms, sharing Uber rides or getting the shuttle, washing kit in the bath. Now I'm sure the main ATP Tour is 100% straight. The poor income leads to temptation.
 

I've taken Tiger for only one major in 2019 at 1/3 with Paddy. So call that a Tiger lay for the other 3.

I'd go a bit further and say (example) class 4 chase form at Cheltenham, Aintree, Newbury, etc counts for a lot more than class 4 chase form at Plumpton, Fontwell, Fakenham, etc. Mostly because the lesser  courses can't attract the best horses.

I'd go a bit further and say (example) class 4 chase form at Cheltenham, Aintree, Newbury, etc counts for a lot more than class 4 chase form at Plumpton, Fontwell, Fakenham, etc. Mostly because the lesser  courses can't attract the best horses.

I could easily give a dozen here, but here's a quick 3 fer.
1. Beware those extra bets: If you're like me, you make your pix ~ 9am when the mind is fairly sharp. Think twice about being influenced by the TV when coverage starts at 1.30 (3 drinks later).
2. Beware "money back specials", eg " Money back all losers if the fav wins". It often means the bookie feels he can get the fav beat . There was a classic a couple of weeks back when the fav was ~ 6/4, and there was co 2,3,4 favs at ~7/2 each. Without checking a Dutching calculator, That's probably shorter than 6/4. The fav failed. That said, in a different race (same offer) Josie's Orders (the fav) won for me on Sunday.
3. Think twice about each-way and place only. If you do it because you feel it's not good enough to win, it may well finish down the field. Only do if you feel nailed-on for the place. If you've backed the fav to win, to also do each-way on your second choice is backing against yourself, so do place only - or consider the forecast.

Week 11:
Cincy +6; Carol -4.5; LAC -7; KC +3.5
FYI: In recent weeks the Hilton Contest top 5 pix at:
https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton
have gone 5-0 twice in recent weeks. That's a  ~ 25/1 acca. They normally do it once per regular season. Maybe that means they wont do it again this season. They have also had a -5 week this year.

What a mess the sport is in! There's an article in today's Daily Mail.
Anyway, tonight is Greyhound Derby night from Towcester (9.07pm).
Sky nights seems to have ended. [I wish VirginMedia would carry RPGTV.]
To watch go to: You Tube "Towcester TV".
The 6/4 fav, Droopy's Veve was only 2 yesterday! Only 15 races, 11 wins 4 seconds.

You went 2-3 which is much better than my 0-4. Most of my "so called" guides had a bad week. The Top 5 pix in the Hilton Contest went 0-5! (after 4-1 in week 1).

I use CBS Power Ranking. See:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings/
Then allow 0.5pts per position, eg team #20 is worh 5.5 pts over team #31
(31-20)/2 = 5.5
Then award 3 pts for home field advantage.
I also like to look at the pix for the Hilton Handicapping Contest in Vegas (now Westage). These are shown by Sunday morning at:  https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton
People have to pay ~ $1500 to enter that contest, so there are some good people in.
HTH
 

I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start.
Week 1 pix are:
(all one point at ~ 10/11)
Balt -7.5
Pitt -3.5
Cincy +2
Minne -6.5
NO -10
Carol -2.5
Denver -3
Detroit -6.5
I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight

6.35 Vintage Brut - 5/1 bet365 - plum draw, won maiden by 7 lengths on debut, trainers horses usually improve from debut run
7.05 Gabr -  EW  11/1 PP - 5th in Racing Post Trophy, highest rated of the runners with marks
7.35 Mount Moriah - 11/2 PP - won Listed race on reappearance, looks a proper stayer, should relish 2 miles
8.10 Laraaib - 8/1 PP - only 4yo in the line up, won 3 of 4 last year, hopefully will progress past the older established and more exposed types he's up against
 
I hope this is a success though I can't see ITV making evening racing a regular feature ....... this is probably the best evening meeting of the year