jazzman02

NFL 2018/19

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Ahhhhhhhh The NFL, if I take my absolute biased and loved Oakland Raiders out of the picture (which they will probably do for me by week 8) i'll try and be reasonable :)

 

The Patriots always seem to be there or thereabout, this year I am going to throw the egg shaped ball way out there and say I have a sneaking for the Rams, No Logical explanation for this, just a feeling, 

That said have to agree with the Jags being in the equation, My heart loves it when the Non regulars are involved in the play offs I am going to throw four teams out there, 2 from each AFC & NFC.

AFC: PATRIOTS & JAGS

NFC: PACKERS & GIANTS

so you can now pick your teams and leave them 4 teams out as I have universally jinxed them  

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Very much looking forward to the new season now, the off season has flown by tbh I remember the super bowl as if it was last week. Hopefully we can get a few regular contributors to this thread again this year, it proved to be quite popular last year.

So as we head into the new season I currently have three ante post bets. Firstly is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I back my boys every year and they always come up short despite promising plenty. No doubt one of the most talented offensive rosters in the league I expect them to definitely be in the playoff mix again and hopefully go on to win the Lombardi Trophy. The loss of Shazier is a real blow but i'm confident Big Ben has one more superbowl victory in him. The AFC is definitely the weaker conference of the two. The horrible Brady and Belicheck have dominated it for the past two decades and will more than likely give it another good go this year. Jacksonville will be dangerous with their incredible defense and I think the Texans are in for a much better season With Deshaun Watson at QB. There are many talented young QB's in the league and I think he is the best of the lot.

My main tip from the NFC conference has to be the San Francisco 49ers. I am well and truly on the Jimmy G bandwagon. The way he ended the season last year was nothing short of spectacular and in a division where Seattle will no longer be top dogs the door is firmly open for them to reach the playoffs. It is a very tough conference and you can make a strong case for about 7 or 8 teams, but for me it is all about the niners.

One of my favourite stats in any sport is that in 14 of the past 15 nfl seasons a team who finished bottom of their division went on to win the division the very next year. This is unpredictability is what makes the sport so great. Last year we had 2 teams meet the criteria, Rams and Jaguars. This year the potential 'zero to heroes' are the Jets, Browns, Colts, Broncos, Giants, Bears, Bucs and Cardinals. From that list I wold straight away eliminate the Browns and Jets. Cleveland have won 1 of their last 32 matches, they can only get better but they will not be winning their division & the jets simply wont be anywhere near the pats. I would also eliminate the bucs and the cardinals that list. Tampa are without Jameis Winston for the first 4 games and arguably have the toughest division matching up against the Saints, Falcons and Panthers. The cardinals have a new Quarterback in Bradford who always has fitness questions and they are up against two of the more exciting teams in that conference in the Rams and 49ers. So that leaves the Colts, Broncos, Bears and Giants. I would be very confident at least one of those teams ends the top of their division. For me I am going to take an almighty stab in the dark with the Chicago Bears. I don't think there is any value in betting on the divisional markets so I will be backing them to win it all at 100/1!! I was impressed with Mitch Trubisky when he started last year, I think he was under rated & he will come on leaps and bounds and become a strong established NFL QB. They have a new head coach who is very highly regarded from his time in Kansas and have two of the most talented offensive weapons in the league with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. I don't think they will have much to fear from Detroit, Minnesota are unlikely to have a season as successful as they did last year, whereas the Packers are a one man franchise and really don't have a great deal of talent apart from the great Aaron Rodgers. If the Bears can tighten up their defence they are definitely worth a punt at a price of 100/1.

Bring on the new season!

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Will also be posting my College football bets similarly to last season.

Week 1:

First scoring play of the match to be a Touchdown by the following teams:

Ohio State v Oregon State

USC v UNLV

Penn St v Appalachian St

Oregon v Bowling Green

bet is only available with bet365 and is currently about 10/1

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2 hours ago, WiggoBets said:

Will also be posting my College football bets similarly to last season.

Week 1:

First scoring play of the match to be a Touchdown by the following teams:

Ohio State v Oregon State

USC v UNLV

Penn St v Appalachian St

Oregon v Bowling Green

bet is only available with bet365 and is currently about 10/1

Glad to see you again mate..I,ll be following as usual good luck for the season 

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18 hours ago, bookiebasher said:

Glad to see you again mate..I,ll be following as usual good luck for the season 

Good luck to you as well bud, big news today with the raiders trading Khalil Mack to the Bears! Very good addition to the Chicago Defense. 

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I'll be weighing in with some dubious TD scorer bets! I know next to nothing about the sport but that's never stopped me having a bash at tryscorers in League and Union. Let's see how my approach works over the season. 100 point bank, I'll update after each week's action.

For the opening game between Atlanta and Philadelphia:

2 points Ertz at 13/8 with 365

1.5 points Agholor at 3.2 on BF (2/1 in places is ok)

1 point Ridley at 17/4 with SX (Spreadex)

My main resources (used in this order) are a comparison between the spreads and fixed odds to find any "prices of interest", a look at the players' stats and a read of the team news/fantasy previews.

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Ah mate..I came home just before the 5pm games started and luckily missed the Wisconsin bet and managed to put in Michigan instead as their game hadnt started yet..With your other 3 picks that came in i actually managed a nice win at 9/1...So thanks mate and sorry about your bet bloody, Wisconsin eh..They battered them afterwards hey....Good luck today in the NFL mate..I havent finalised any bets yet for today..

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I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start.

Week 1 pix are:

(all one point at ~ 10/11)

Balt -7.5

Pitt -3.5

Cincy +2

Minne -6.5

NO -10

Carol -2.5

Denver -3

Detroit -6.5

I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight

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1 hour ago, bookiebasher said:

Ah mate..I came home just before the 5pm games started and luckily missed the Wisconsin bet and managed to put in Michigan instead as their game hadnt started yet..With your other 3 picks that came in i actually managed a nice win at 9/1...So thanks mate and sorry about your bet bloody, Wisconsin eh..They battered them afterwards hey....Good luck today in the NFL mate..I havent finalised any bets yet for today..

Brilliant stuff mate, Michigan and Washington state were on my shortlist as well and both would have won which is slightly annoying! 

Today is going to be interesting you can't really call anything for certain on week 1. I'd be tempted by some of the underdogs, Houston and San Francisco in particular. Also could be worth backing the 'unders' line in Cleveland as there is some atrocious weather predicted all day. Under 30.5 is currently 3/1. Same can be said for buffalo at baltimore, could be a nice double. Good luck with whatever your having. 

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1 minute ago, WiggoBets said:

Brilliant stuff mate, Michigan and Washington state were on my shortlist as well and both would have won which is slightly annoying! 

Today is going to be interesting you can't really call anything for certain on week 1. I'd be tempted by some of the underdogs, Houston and San Francisco in particular. Also could be worth backing the 'unders' line in Cleveland as there is some atrocious weather predicted all day. Under 30.5 is currently 3/1. Same can be said for buffalo at baltimore, could be a nice double. Good luck with whatever your having. 

Yes im just having a look now to be honest mate..Im leaning Bengals so far...

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Bit late, but I have Vikings (-5.5), Ravens (-6.5), Broncos (-3.0), Rams (-3.0), Steelers (-5.5) and Packers (-7.5).

Most worried about the Packers. Took them before the Mack trade. Steelers also some little concern because I thougth Bell would play.

This my first year as NFL bettor :p hoping for glory.

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Rough start. Disappointing performances the Steelers and Saints. Steelers turning the ball over 6 times is unforgivable, similar story to last year. I suppose in the end a tie is not too bad given the awful conditions. Bucs definitely the standout performance of the day. Chiefs and Redskins looking strong in the late games, Mahomes has unreal arm strength. 

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I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start.

Week 1 pix are:

(all one point at ~ 10/11)

Balt -7.5  WIN

Pitt -3.5  LOSE

Cincy +2  WIN

Minne -6.5  WIN

NO -10  LOSE

Carol -2.5  WIN

Denver -3  PUSH

Detroit -6.5  TONIGHT

I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight

 

Reasonable start. Pitt really blew a good lead. Didn't see the Tampa/NO result coming but I have previously noticed it can often be a worthwhile bet to back the biggest dog (Tampa +10) straight up / money line. I guess they were about 4/1.

Yesterday's TV was runied - no golf (rain), no Nascar (rain), no US Open tennis (don't have Amazon Prime). I think we get the golf and Nascar today.

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I use CBS Power Ranking. See:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings/

Then allow 0.5pts per position, eg team #20 is worh 5.5 pts over team #31

(31-20)/2 = 5.5

Then award 3 pts for home field advantage.

I also like to look at the pix for the Hilton Handicapping Contest in Vegas (now Westage). These are shown by Sunday morning at:  https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton

People have to pay ~ $1500 to enter that contest, so there are some good people in.

HTH

 

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      18+ Eligible UK+IRE players. Min deposit £5. Paypal & some deposit type’s excl. Winning bets paid in cash at normal price. Enhanced odds paid in £5 free bets within 24 hours, valid for 4 days, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply
    • 2-0 Up - YOU WIN! £0
      Get your bet paid out as a winner if the team you back goes 2 goals ahead. Applies to pre-match single bets on Full Time Result market for applicable competitions. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.
    • Money Back if 1 lets you down! £10
      Applies to UK & Top Euro leagues. Applies to match odds ACCA & Same Game Multi bets only. Max free bet €/£10 per day. T&Cs apply
    • 2-0 up - You Win! £0
      Applies to all Premier League, La Liga and Champions League games until 31st December 2018. T&Cs apply.
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